Eagles vs Cowboys @4:25 EST

QB Jalen Hurts

The Eagles have a full bill of health heading into this week against the Cowboys, when they entered the week with questionable tags on all of Jalen Hurts' weapons: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts has been great this year, and has only had all three of his top weapons in one game this season, Week 1. In that week, Hurts went off against a tough Green Bay Packers defence, where he went 20/34, 278 passing yards, two TDs and two INTs. Since then, Hurts has had one game where he had more passing yards than that. With all of his alotment of weapons, Hurts should have no reason to not bounce back. This marks the first matchup against the Dallas Cowboys on the season, but Hurts has typically struggled in this matchup, surpassing 210 passing yards just once in the previous two seasons. However, this is a different Cowboys passing defence, still allowing the 18th most passing yards (230.1) but on the second-fewest passing attempts against (27.6). This indicates that the Cowboys are allowing a high number of big plays against. And that reflects in them allowing the second most yards per pass attempt (8.3) and sixth most deep ball percentage allowed (12.7%). The Cowboys run the sixth most zone coverage (82.9%). Against zone, Hurts has the 19th most pass completions (111), 23rd most passing yards (1,218). BUT, he has the second-highest completion percentage (75.5%) and the ninth most yards per pass attempt (8.3). What does that mean? Hurts should be able to take advantage of a weaker Cowboys defence, especially against the deep ball, especially considering he's completed a 40+ yard pass in four straight and six of eight games this season.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 37.5 Longest Pass (-115)

 RB Saquon Barkley

Had Derrick Henry NOT switched teams this offseason, Saquon Barkley would be far and away the most impactful offensive acquisition made during the offseason. Sure, you could argue Kirk Cousins as well, but Barkley has opened up this offence so much more with a seriously threatening running game, to only open Hurts' legs, and the receiving options as well. Can we just take a minute to respect the unbelievable BACKWARDS HURDLE? Thank you. Alright. Back to the stats. Barkley has the second most rushing yards this season (925) –– trailing only the aforementioned Henry –– and third in yards per carry (among players with 60+ carries) (5.9). This Cowboys run defence was the weakness of the offence last year, and that's rolled over to this season even further as they went from averaging 87.8 rushing yards to 108.8 this season against RBs. The only gripe with Barkley is that he has historically struggled against the Cowboys, averaging just 49.3 rush yards per game over the past three seasons. But that was all spent behind a weak New York Giants offensive line, now that he has a great offensive line, he might not get stopped in this matchup. Dallas allows 58% of their runs against zone run scheme (58%), but actually average a higher yards per carry (4.9), against man/gap. This bodes well for Barkley, as he averages a 6.67 yards per carry against man/gap compared to his 5.4 against zone. Regardless, it's a juicy matchup for Barkley, especially in a game where Cooper Rush is starting and might not be able to retain the majority of ball possession, leading to more rushes for Saquon. Let's play devil's advocate and say somehow the Cowboys are able to hold Saquon from his yards, he should still see plenty attempts and a serious chance at finding the end zone, as they allow the second most rushing TDs (1.25) per game. Saquon has scored eight touchdowns in eight games this season.

Suggested Pick:
1+ TD (-200)
First TD (+360)

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown really hasn't seen the field much this season. After Week 1, he sustained an injury that kept him out three weeks, and he left early in Week 9 after being ruled out due to a knee injury. However, that injury wasn't serious enough to hold him out of this matchup against the Cowboys. When Brown has been in the lineup, he's been one of the leagues' best, finishing with over 80 receiving yards in all four games with a 70% catch rate. The Cowboys allow the 14th most receptions (11.4) and the 16th most receiving yards (144.8) to WRs this season. Brown gets a massive advantage when it comes to man coverage, as he has the single highest PFF grade against man coverage, catching 10 of his 15 targets for 202 receiving yards and two TDs. However, unfortunately for Brown, the Eagles run the sixth-fewest man coverage in the league, running zone coverage at an 82.9% clip. Brown against zone still ranks as a top-10 WR against zone, catching 11 of his 15 targets for 214 yards. He almost seems unguardable, especially considering that he's cleared 65 yards in his four most recent matchups against the Cowboys. But the clear and most obvious advantage here is an AJ Brown deep ball. The Cowboys allow the third-highest yards per reception (12.5), while Brown ranks fourth in yards per reception (22.3).

Suggested Pick:
30+ Yard Reception (+130)
40+ Yard Reception (+330)

WR Devonta Smith

What's so nice about trying to gauge this Eagles WR room, is that they are complete opposites of each other. Brown is dominant against man coverage and the deep ball, while Smith is the better possession receiver and reception guy. And that reflects in where he lines up on the field. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has put his impact on this offence, lining Smith up more in the slot on 123 snaps –– 50 more snaps than the second-highest Eagle –– compared to 101 out wide. This has led to Smith's highest catch rate (76%) of his career. Smith lines up in the slot 52% of the time and is projected to line up against Jourdan Lewis, who plays the slot 87% of the time. Lewis has allowed 22 receptions on 32 targets against opposing receivers. Whie it might be a bigger day for AJ Brown in terms of yards, Smith has the highest advantage for volume in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (+105)

TE Dallas Goedert

If anything is true about this Eagles offence, its that when all three of these weapons are healthy, it's only two of them that have a successful day. And, quite honestly, it's typically Goedert who gets the short end of the stick. He ranks third in targets (28), receiving yards (301), yards per reception (12.5) and routes run (12.5). This Dallas Cowboys defence doesn't allow much to opposing TEs, allowing the second-fewest receptions (3.1) and the 14th-fewest receiving yards (44.1) to the position. However, Goedert is the clear third option as he has only been a pass blocker on ONE block this season. But, in a game we're expecting the RBs and WRs to do well, it might not be a great Goedert week –– unless of course, he finds the end zone, which the Cowboys allow the sixth-most receiving TDs to TEs this season.

Suggested Pick:
1+ TD +275

QB Cooper Rush

Ew, man. This isn't going to be a fun game for the Cowboys. Honestly, if you're 3-5, four games behind the division leader, and three games out of the final Wild Card spot, with your franchise QB hitting injured reserve, why is Jerry Jones starting Cooper Rush instead of seeing what they have –– or trying to build the trade value –– in Trey Lance? That makes no sense. We know what Cooper Rush is. He's a 30-year-old below-average backup QB, who proved he couldn't lead your team after Dak Prescott's injury in 2022, what makes you think he'll be able to do it now? Honestly, this Eagles defence is MUCH improved from what we saw last season, as they allow the seventh-fewest passing yards (208.3) per game. At the end of last regular season, the Eagles allowed the sixth most passing yards (267.2). While their defence is much improved, they typically don't cause too many turnovers at just 0.63 interceptions per game this season. However, in Rush's last game agaisnt the Eagles, he threw three interceptions.

Suggested Pick:
1+ Interception (-165)

RB Rico Dowdle

I mean, we've been waiting for this Cowboys team to find a running game all season. They've always been a reliable running game with the previous years of prime Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. And, while Rico Dowdle was a nice lightning to Pollard's thunder last season, he hasn't been able to perform as a full-time starter. That was, until last week. Dowdle finally made his presence felt with his best game on the ground, finishing with 75 rushing yards on 12 rush attempts for 6.3 yards per carry and five receptions with 32 receiving yards and a TD. With Prescott on injured reserve and out for at least four weeks –– and Elliott and Dalvin Cook playing like the age that they are –– this should open up a massive window for Dowdle to prove he can be a reliable weapon in this offence. Across the league, Dowdle hasn't been impressive with just 321 rushing yards this season; however, he has the 22nd highest yards per carry (4.5) across the league. This Eagles rush defence isn't to be messed with as they allow the 11th fewest rushing yards () to RBs per game. But where you can expose them, is through the air as they allow the 18th most receptions (), and the 16th most receiving yards () to RBs per game. Now, with Rush under centre, he's going to have to rely on his running back as a quick dump-offs. Not to mention Dowdle's back-to-back games with five receptions, he might be relied upon as an ascension of the run game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 2.5 Receptions (+145)

WR CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb is respected as a top three receiver in the NFL. But with Cooper Rush at the helm, I don't know if we see that same success. It's unfortunate because Lamb has the fifth most receiving yards (660) and is having a great season after finishing two years shy of the lead last season with 1,859 yards. Sure, he's on pace for 1,402.5 yards this season, but without Prescott, that feat seems unlikely. It's pretty difficult to predict how Lamb's going to do with a different QB starting this week, but when Lamb had Rush in 2022, he caught 31/49 passes for 380 yards. This amounts to 6.2 receptions on 9.8 targets for a 63% catch rate, equalling 76 receiving yards per game. Philadelphia's pass defence has seen a massive improvement, as they allow the 18th most receiving yards (137.3) to WRs, compared to the third most receiving yards (185.1) they allowed last season. This might be because they've seen an uptick in man coverage, as the Eagles run the eighth most man coverage in the league (30%). If this was last season, this would still be a smash spot for CeeDee regardless of the QB, as he had the highest PFF grade against man coverage last season. But this season, he's dropped to 24th with just 14 receptions on 24 targets. Now, a backup QB will likely heavily target the clear number one option in the offence. I don't expect that to change in a game where the Cowboys should be trailing, especially for a guy commanding 10.1 targets per game at a 65.4% catch rate.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Jake Ferguson

In this matchup, I'm honestly just expecting this Cowboys offence to be throwing a lot, Just because you're going to need to with such a poor run defence, considering they'll likely be trailing. Who's the number two option behind CeeDee Lamb in the pass game? Jake Ferguson. Lamb is by far the leader of the clubhouse with 81 targets, but Ferguson is second with 50, but leads the receiving room in catch percentage (76%). He has run 238 routes on 265 of his pass routes, only lining up as a blocker on 11 snaps. What's most surprising is to see Lamb run 176 routes to Ferguson's 164 routes out of the slot. Outside of the whole Cooper Rush problem, Ferguson also has to deal with the fact the Eagles allow the sixth-fewest receiving yards (38.5) to TEs this season. While he might be peppered with targets, I expect the Eagles to protect the short area and middle of the field, restricting Ferguson's upside, considering he has a team-low 5.1 aDoT.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Despite the Eagles disappointing-ish start to the year, I still believe their a top-three team in the NFC, and going into a AT&T stadium, in a division matchup, they aren't going to lay off to beat the piss out of a long-standing rival against a backup QB.

Best Bet: Eagles -6.5 -127
Lean: Over 43.5 -110
Eagles 38 - Cowboys 10