Titans vs Chargers @4:05 EST

QB Will Levis  

Much to the dismay of Titans fans, Will Levis will get the start on Sunday in Los Angeles. He’s  been arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL this season, throwing for over 200 yards just  once with a TD to INT ratio of 5:7. He will face a Chargers defense that ranks in the top 10 in PYA/gm, Interceptions and Sacks. The value on Will Levis this Sunday lies only in him to throw  an interception. He has been picked off in each of his 4 starts this season, and LA’s defense has  recorded an INT in every game this year, with the exception of New Orleans. This is a must play! 

Suggested Pick 
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-170) 

RB Tony Pollard 

Despite how bad of a football team Tennessee is, Tony Pollard is making the absolute most out  of what has been a miserable season. The Titans RB ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing with 622  yards on 4.4 YPC. Pollard had 31 touches out of the backfield last week, and he’s had no fewer  than 18 in any game this season. That could change on Sunday as Tyjae Spears will be back for  this game. The Chargers have the league’s 7th best rush defense, where they are giving up just  80.3 YPG on the ground. LAC allows the 10th fewest pass-catching yards to RB’s, but they’ve  given up the 13th most reception. Even with Spears back, I still like Pollard’s receptions at 2.5. He will get some check down from Levis here, and in 8 games Pollard has 3,3,2,3,2,3,5,3 rec. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 2.5 Receptions (-114) 

WR Calvin Ridley 

Calvin Ridley will be the main victim to Will Levis starting at QB for the Titans on Sunday. With  Mason Rudolph under center Ridley was getting a 29.9% target share, but with Will Levis this  numbers drops significantly to 20.2%. This is also going to be a tough matchup for Ridley  against a Chargers team that only runs zone-coverage at an 80.9% rate (2nd highest in NFL). This  is bad news for Ridley who is getting targeted just 18.9% of the time vs zone, whereas against man-coverage he has a massive 34.2% target rate. He will be lined up across from Tarheeb Still,  who has allowed just 20 receptions on 35 targets (58.8%) this year for 191 yards. It’s a shame  for Ridley, who was really coming into his own with departure of DeAndre Hopkins and  insertion of Mason Rudolph at QB. Ridley has logged 258 yards over the L3 weeks, but now he’s  relegated back to Will Levis, and the last time these two played together was a home game in  week 6 vs Indianapolis, where Ridley was targeted 8 times, finishing with 0 receptions. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass

WR Tyler Boyd 

The more I break this Tennessee offense down vs LAC, the more I’m starting to wonder if  they’re even going to score. After Calvin Ridley, they don’t have a single player with over 200  yards receiving. Tyler Boyd is the next best player on the depth chart, but the Chargers are one  of the better slot defending teams in the league, and his numbers against zone-coverage are  rather pedestrian. He’s caught just 13 of 20 (65% CR) balls thrown his way for 99 yards with a  target share of only 11.6%. By process of elimination, somebody is going to have a decent  game, but figuring out who that is going to be is merely grasping at straws. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Chig Okonkwo 

Chig Okonkwo has just 20 receptions for 159 yards this season, but this is a spot where there is  some real value. The Tennessee TE has just an 11.0% target share, but he’s been productive  against zone-coverage. Okonkwo has caught 15 of 19 passes (78.9% CR) for 135 yards, and  while the Chargers rank in the middle of the pack in RYA to tight ends, they give up the 7th most  receptions (6.5/gm) to this position. He should provide a safety blanket for Levis in this game. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 2.5 Receptions (-128)
ALT Receptions
4+ (+174)
5+ (+350) 

QB Justin Herbert 

This could be one of the uglier games on the schedule in terms of pass production. Justin  Herbert didn’t eclipse the 200-yard mark in his first 4 games of the season, but in the L4 weeks  he has thrown for 282, 279, 349, 237 yards. However, he will have to go up against Tennessee  on Sunday, the stingiest pass defense in the NFL. The Titans allow a league-low 172.4 yards  through the air, and they do this by playing a mixture of Cover 3 and 4 zone (50.5%) and Cover  1-man (22.9%). Against these primary coverages, Herbert has completed 91 of 139 (65.5% CMP)  passes for 1,057 yards with 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s. His completion percentage drops to 55.6% when  he’s under pressure, but the Titans get after opposing QB’s at the 3rd lowest rate in the league. I  like Herbert in this game, but this could be a time of possession war with limited scoring. 

Suggested Pick 
Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-113) 

RB J.K. Dobbins 

J.K. Dobbins isn’t the best running back in the league, but he’s been a source of reliability for  this Los Angeles offense all season. He’s averaging 90.9 all-purpose yards on 18.4 touches/gm. He will have his work cut out for him this Sunday vs the Titans, who allow just 76.6 rushing YPG  to opposing RB’s. What I love about Dobbins is he’s one of the toughest, most unsung backs in  the league. The Chargers RB is 10th in YPC (4.9), 3rd in broken tackles and 7th in breakaway %,  and with L.A. likely to control most of this game, Dobbins should get a nice workload here. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 
1+ TD (-105) 

WR Ladd McConkey 

Ladd McConkey is clearly the go-to guy for Justin Herbert in this passing offense. He has a team high 24.3% target share, and against the top 3 Titans defensive schemes he’s caught 22 of 31  passes (71.0% CR) for 331 yards. McConkey has been particularly good out of the slot, where he  lines up for 67.5% of his snaps, and Tennessee allows the 2nd most yards per target (6.2) to slot  receivers in ’24. He will line up across from Roger McCreary, whose opponents have caught 25  of 33 balls thrown his way for 141 yards. I think McConkey is due for some regression here, and my concern comes from how L.A. has been spreading the ball around lately. Prior to their bye in  week 5, Ladd had a target share of 28.6%, but since then it’s dropped to just 20.7%. 

Suggested Pick 
Under 5.5 Receptions (-160) 

WR Quentin Johnson 

Quentin Johnson return to Los Angeles last week and promptly posted 4-118-TD on 5 targets.  He’s caught 12 of 18 balls (66.7% CR) for 146 yards vs the Titans 3 most used defenses. The  Chargers also like to stretch the field with Johnson, as 25.9% of his targets come from routes  that are 20+ yards are more. The only problem here is Tennessee has allowed only 2 of 24  passes that are 20+ yards to be hauled in. Johnson will go up against CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr., who  has allowed 23 of 39 balls to be caught for 275 receiving yards. He’s starting to get picked on as  of late, where he’s been targeted 23 times in in the L3 games, allowing 175, 7 and 41 yards.  

Suggested Pick 
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-113) 

The Chargers have held 5 different teams to 10 points or less this season, and the Titans offense  only been able to muster 20 or more points twice all season. Will Levis is 0-4 as a starting QB,  and now he has to face one of the best defenses in the NFL. L.A. should win overwhelmingly. 

Best Bet (Chargers -6.5 -135) 
Lean (Under 38.5 -106)
Chargers 23 Titans 10