Patriots vs Bears @1:00 EST

QB Drake Maye 

There’s just no way to sugarcoat this New England pass offense. It is simply putrid. The Patriots  rank 30th in scoring (15.7 PPG) and they are dead last in passing yards at 177.6/gm. It doesn’t  help matters when you have no continuity at the quarterback position. Drake Maye will get the  start in week 10 at Chicago, and considering the Bears are coming off a 52-yard “Hail Mary” loss to Washington two weeks ago and last week were humiliated by Arizona at the Jiffy Pop, it’s  most likely going to be taken out on NE this Sunday. Chicago runs zone-coverage at a 74.7%  rate (7th most in the NFL), and they rely heavily on Cover-3. In fact, at 40.6% they ran this  scheme at the 4th highest rate in the league. From an accuracy standpoint, Drake Maye has  completed 30 of 42 passes (71.4% CMP), but he has only 194 yards to show for it. That’s only  6.5 YPC, and he’s thrown just 1 TD to 3 INT. CHI has a Pressure-Rate of 34.8% (8th most in NFL),  and in a small sample size Maye is 6 for 11 for 53 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Chicago’s pass defense  has been its backbone all season. They allow the 8th fewest PYG at 211.5, and Drake Maye has  already found himself struggling behind center, so he will most likely need to use his legs in this  game. The bad news here is the Bears allow just 20.6 rushing YPG to opposing QB’s. They did  allow 52 yards to Daniels two weeks ago, but Maye poses little threat through the air, so I  worry that Chicago’s game plan will be to contain his running ability. The prop I love for Drake  Maye this Sunday is his under 0.5 TD’s. In 6 games, the Patriots QB has thrown 6 touchdowns,  and all but one of those came in his 2 games against Houston (3) and Jacksonville (2), who have  allowed the 2nd most passing TD’s (19 each) in the NFL. On the contrary, Chicago has allowed only 5 pass touchdowns from quarterbacks, which is the fewest of any team in the league. They  have limited Stroud (1), Stafford (0), Dalton (0), Daniels (1) and Murray (0).  

Suggested Pick 
'U' 0.5 Passing TD’s (+165) 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson 

The Patriots running back is doing his best to make the most out of playing in what can only be  described as a dreadful offense. Anyone who believes Rhamondre Stevenson has been the  problem out of the NE backfield for the past 2 seasons needs to take a history lesson.  Stevenson came into the NFL as a rookie in 2021 under Bill Belichick. He averaged 4.6 YPC (’21) and 5.0 YPC (’22) in his first 2 seasons, where the Pats went 10-7 and 8-9 respectively. However,  since Belichick’s departure, New England has found themselves in complete disarray, and  Stevenson has been an unfortunate victim of that. He the saw his average dip to 4.0 YPC last  year, where the Patriots finished 4-13. Now, heading into week 10 with a 2-7 record, the NE  back has compiled only 438 rushing yards (54.8/gm) on a career low 3.8 YPC. And this week’s  matchup at Chicago doesn’t look good for him on paper. That is because Stevenson is going to  be running up against zone-based coverage nearly 75% of the time, where he’s getting 3.1 YPC  on the ground as opposed to 4.4 when he faces man-based coverage. Chicago does allow the  13th most rushing yards in the NFL (131.6/gm), but they are better in zone coverage. The other  thing that can’t be ignored here is the Bears are 4-4, but they are coming off 2 straight losses  and returning home. It is more likely than not that CHI will get out ahead in this game, and that  means Stevenson’s rushing attempts would most likely plummet. The one spot I do like for him here is total receptions. The Patriots RB has caught 23 of 25 targets for 99 (4.3 YPR) yards in ’24,  averaging 4.3/gm. The Bears allow the 6th fewest receiving yard to RB’s, but they still allow 4.4  receptions per game to the position, and Drake Maye is going to have to rely on Stevenson in  this game. He is line is set at just 2.5, which is way too low. In 8 games played, Chicago has  allowed lead RB’s to catch 3 or more balls in 6 of 8 games. The only two players who didn’t  reach this number were Brian Robinson (WAS) and D’Ernest Johnson (JAX), but neither are  pass-catching backs, In fact, Robinson’s has just 8 catches in 9 games, and Johnson has 9 in 7.  Rhamondre Stevenson had just 8 targets in his first 3 games, but he’s cleared the 2.5 set line in  4/L5 games, seeing 20 total targets that has led to reception totals of 5,3,2,4,4. I like the value!! 

Suggested Pick 
Over 2.5 Receptions (-145) 

WR DeMario Douglas 

DeMario Douglas is the diamond in the rough within this Patriots wide receiving corps. The 2nd year player out of Liberty is still finding his way, but he’s showing promise despite having to  build chemistry with multiple quarterbacks. The good news is Drake Maye has had high praise  for the 23-year old this season, and it clearly shows up in the stats. Douglas has a 17.9% target  share in ’24, but this number bolsters to 26.0% when Maye is under center. We’re still waiting  for the yardage to catch up, but he did have 7 receptions for 35 yards last week. Douglas has an  18.2% target share vs Cover 3, catching 11 of 14 balls for 70 yards, and the Bears mix up their  corners a lot, so he won’t have any one player consistently defending him in this game. Now, with that said the Bears have allowed the 2nd fewest receptions to WR’s this season, but  DeMario’s 7-catch effort in week 9 came against a Tennessee team that has allowed just 6  more receptions to WR this than CHI. While, I think it’s going to a really, really bad day for  Drake Maye, somebody has to catch the ball and Douglas is the only guy he has any trust in. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 3.5 Receptions (-128) 

WR Kayshon Boutte/Kendrick Bourne 

The Patriots passing game is atrocious and neither, Kayshon Boutte or Kendrick Bourne offer  any betting market value that one can feel good about. Boutte has the 3rd most receiving yards  on the team with 203, but with Kendrick Bourne back, it’s just too much of a hodge-podge  situation with that includes up to 7 or 8 players that can catch the ball. Stay away from both. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Hunter Henry 

Hunter Henry has been the most reliable pass-catcher for New England this season. The TE  leads his team in targets (53), receptions (39) and yards (414), and he’s the only weapon that  seems to consistently show up for every game. Henry has caught all 10 of his targets for 100 yards vs. Cover 3 defense this year, and when Drake Maye is playing QB he’s hauled 19 of 23  targets for 200 yards. The Bears have an excellent pass defense, but they’ve proven to be a  little softer against the TE position, where they allow 7.9 YPT (21st in NFL). 

Suggested Pick 
Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

QB Caleb Williams 

Caleb Williams has had a typical season fitting for that of a rookie quarterback. He’s looked  good in stretches and other times…well not so much. It should come as no surprise that 2 of his better games have been against Carolina and Jacksonville. This Sunday, he will face a similarly  favorable opponent in the Patriots, who run zone-coverage at a 57.3% rate (5th lowest in NFL).  The lion’s share of their zone schemes come from Cover 2 (20.4%) and Cover 3 (20.8%), while  they run Cover 1-man at a 27.7% rate. Against these coverages, Williams has completed 117 of  193 passes (60.6% CMP) for 1229 yards, 5 TD and 5 INT. But here’s the key in this matchup for  Williams. When the Chicago starting QB is pressured he has completed only 43.1% of his passes  for 5.1 YPPA, however this shouldn’t be a concern on Sunday when he meets the Patriots, who  have a Pressure-Rate of just 29.7% (28th in NFL). In 2 games against the Panthers and Jaguars,  Williams completed 74.1% (43-58) of his throws for 530 combined pass yards, 6 TD and 1 INT.  The rookie quarterback was under little pressure vs CAR (32nd in PR) and JAX (27th in PR), and  based on what we know about NE this should be a very similar matchup for Williams to thrive. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 211.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+144) 

RB D’Andre Swift 

D’Andre Swift is a multipurpose back in every sense of the word. He has the 5th most touches  out of the backfield among NFL running backs, and through 8 games he has accumulated 729 total yards (505 rush, 224 rec), while finding the end zone 4 times. He will face a New England  team on Sunday that has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards (124.5/gm) in the league. In fact, the Pats have surrendered 100+ rushing yards to RB’s in 7 straight games heading into week 10.  NE allows 4.7 YPC (6th most in NFL) to opposing RB’s, and with Chicago being a significant home  favorite, Swift could see a lot of carries here so I would fade him in the receiving game. This is a  really nice spot for D’Andre on Sunday. His rushing line is set at 71.5 yards for this game, and his Anytime TD is +105. Swift has cleared both of these in 4/L5 games, and I think he does it again. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
ALT Rushing Yards
90+ (+186)
100+ (+255) 
1+ TD (+105)

WR D.J. Moore 

Despite getting targeted 9 times last Sunday in Arizona, D.J. Moore was only able to haul in 4  receptions for 33 yards. He may be listed as the Bears #1 receiver, but he’s been anything but  that, especially as of late. Since going off for 8-100-2TD vs Carolina, the CHI wide out has posted  receiving totals of just 33,27,20 over the L3 weeks. He is averaging career lows of 6.2 YPT and  46.8 YPG so far in ’24. This is not all Moore’s fault when you consider that his 11.8% inaccuracy  target rate has risen to 20.0% this year with a rookie QB. When facing the 3 primary defensive  schemes that New England runs, Moore has caught 26 of his 41 targets (63.4% CR) for 231 yds.  One piece of good news for the Bears WR is that he plays 80% of his snaps from the wide out  position, where NE is allowing 9.5 YPT (26th in NFL). D.J. Moore will line up across from Patriots  CB Jonathan Jones who has been targeted 23 times, allowing 17 receptions for 255 yards. I’m  buying low on Moore in a game where he can take advantage of the Pats poor pass defense. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113) 

WR Keenan Allen 

It looks as if father time has finally reared its ugly head once and for all on Keenan Allen in ’24.  The Chicago WR is just 32 years old, but his production is that of someone nearing 40. Allen has  caught 21 of 42 targets (50.0% CR) for 197 yards this season, and he’s averaging just 32.8 YPG.  Even on 10 targets last week, Allen only caught 4 for 36 yards. Much of this can be attributed to  the inaccuracy of Caleb Williams, whose quality of targets has been suspect at best.  

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Rome Odunze 

Rome Odunze lead all Chicago receivers in yards with 391, and he’s coming off a 5-catch, 107  yard performance on Sunday at Arizona. Odunze can be hit or miss at times, but his big play  ability gives him good upside. He will line up opposite Christian Gonzalez, who has allowed  receivers to catch 33 of 57 balls (57.9%) for 356 yards. Odunze is one of those all-or-nothing  players, but he can also make a splash play at any time, and the Bears WR has receptions of  27,28,44,47 yards this season. New England’s pass defense is atrocious, and they allow a 42.9%  catch-rate to wide outs on plays of 20+ yards, so I like Odunze’s longest reception at over 20.5. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 20.5 Longest Reception 

I cannot emphasize enough about Chicago’s defense laying an egg last week in Arizona. They  are going to respond in a big way on Sunday against an inferior Patriots team at Soldier Field. New England has scored 10 points or less three times this season, and Sunday will be the 4th.

Best Bet (Bears -6.5 -105)
Lean (Under 38.5 -110)
Bears 27 Patriots 10