Bills vs Colts @1:00 EST

QB Josh Allen

Allen loves man coverage. On 89 attempts vs man this season, he owns a 55.1% completion rate, 7.98 yards per attempt, an 111.4 passer rating (9.1 aDOT) and 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. His success has not been the same against zone coverage, which IND runs at the 3rd highest rate this season (76.5%). Against zone he owns a higher 70.4% completion rate and a similar 7.76 YPA, but his passer rating dips to 93.1 (7.4 aDOT) and he has yet to throw a touchdown pass against zone. That’s shocking! There will be some opportunities against man in this game, but IND only runs man at a 15.2% rate. This week will be the first time Allen has seen a top 10 team in zone coverage percentage this season. When it comes to turnover-worthy throws, we see a big difference for Allen between the two coverage types as well. He holds a 3.1% turnover-worthy throw rate against zone and just a 1.1% vs man. This Colts defense grades out as both solid vs the run and coverage, but struggles to create a pass rush. Like most QB’s, Allen’s numbers look better while not under pressure, however he’s still thrown both of his interceptions while not under pressure.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (+108)
‘O’ 20.5 Completions (-128)

RB James Cook

Cook has been a little up and down of late, exceeding 80 rushing yards in 2 of the last 4 weeks, while failing to exceed 45 in the other two. The volume has been lower after heavy usage to kick off 2024. He has 12 carries or fewer in 5 of his L7 games. IND’s defense is allowing the 4th most rushing yards per game this season (121.8) and just over a half rushing touchdown per game. Cook has run better on the road, averaging 77.5 rushing yards per game, compared to just 46.5 at home. This is completely opposite of his splits last season. Cook runs more in the zone rushing scheme (67) than man/gap (41) this season. IND ranks 10th in success rate allowed with zone (51.1%) and 19th for man (47.2%). However, IND has done a good job at limiting explosive rushes, ranking 22nd. I just don’t think there is enough here besides a likely positive game script to support Cook rushing overs. IND does allow the 9th highest checkdown throw % at 11%. Cook always remains active in the passing game, so he could once again be involved here. Cook also has 1+ touchdown in 6 of his last 8 games.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ Longest Rush of 14.5 (-115)
‘O’ 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
1+ TD (+100)

WR Amari Cooper

Cooper is officially questionable this Sunday and has been a limited participant all week with a wrist injury. He didn’t play last week, but if I  had to guess I think he’ll be active this week. The Colts allow the 7th lowest 1st Read % (64.3%), which does make sense given how much zone they play. With that being said, they have been burned plenty by teams’ WR1: Jefferson (7 for 137), Diggs (5 for 81), Thomas Jr. (5 for 122), Pickens (7 for 113), DJ Moore (8 for 78) and Collins (6 for 117). Cooper’s TD’s this season have come against man coverage, but he’s been good against zone as well. He owns a 13.5 aDOT, a 10.94 YPR and  21.8% target percentage. All very solid and with no Coleman, we might see a nice game from Cooper, despite the deficiencies from Allen vs zone.

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‘O’ Receiving Yards (when released)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is primarily Buffalo’s slot guy. He runs out of the slot on 74.4% of passing snaps. IND has been solid against slot WR’s this season, only allowing the 20th most yards per game (72) to that alignment. They do allow the 7th highest aDOT to the slot and 2nd highest catch rate (78.4%). Here are some other slot WR’s they have played this season: Addison (5 for 42), Kirk (4 for 88) and Reed (2 for 9). Truly a mixed bag and not having Coleman with a beat up Cooper doesn’t make things easier. This is mostly an avoid spot for him, especially until we get clarity of the WR room status. Shakir isn’t known as a big play type and holds an absolutely small 2.9 aDOT this season, only ahead of the RB’s from this team. I’ll go ahead and fade his longest reception here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ Longest Recpetion of 22.5 Yards (-111)

TE Dalton Kincaid

There is no doubt that Kincaid, a popular breakout candidate, has had a very underwhelming season. He has yet to record more than 60 receiving yards in a game and has less than 45 receiving yards in 6 of 9. He also fell under 4.5 receptions in 7 of 9, despite getting 6+ targets in his last 6 games. IND ranks 8th in receiving yards allowed to opposing TE’s, but 3rd in receptions. As I mentioned with Cook, IND’s forces checkdowns, which includes the TE. That’s likely why they give up a lot of receptions, but not yardage to opposing TE’s this season. Despite Kincaid not clearing 4 receptions in the last 3, this looks like a solid spot for him to clear his reception line at a nice price.

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‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-106)

TE Dawson Knox

Coleman has officially been ruled out in this one and with Cooper also questionable, I could easily see the Bills running more 12-man sets including Knox. Kincaid is the clear TE1 in this offense, but Knox still plays plenty. On the season he holds an average of 55.4% snap share. His receiving line is tempting at just 6.5 and all it’ll take is 1 catch to get there. He’s had at least a single reception in 7 of 9 games this season and I could easily see him getting north of 60% snap share.

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‘O’ 6.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Joe Flacco

Buffalo has not been a good coverage team this season, ranking 28th in coverage grading, but do have a solid pass rush (rank 7th overall). This defense is only allowing 225.2 passing yards per game (17th) and a 87.7 passer rating (19th), despite allowing the 8th highest completion percentage to opposing QB’s. Flacco is coming off a brutal game against the Vikings, where he went 16 for 27 for 179 yards, no touchdowns and a pick. He also will be without one of his top options this week in Pittman. There is plenty not to like for Flacco here in this matchup. MIN brings a ton of pressure and while BUF hasn’t brought as much, they still rank 7th in pass rush grading. I think we see another mediocre outing here from Flacco, as they try to lean on the run and play ball control. Even when BUF has created an early negative game script for opposing teams, they often have not been able to put up huge passing numbers.

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‘U’ 33.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
‘U’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-170)

RB Jonathan Taylor

Taylor finds himself in a good matchup against this Bills defensive line. Buffalo’s run defense ranks 24 in run defensive grading and averaging just under 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RB’s. I think ideally the Colts control this game through the run. They don’t want to end up in a shootout with the BUF offense, especially given how their defense has played this season. Taylor runs both in the zone (63) and man/gap (42) concepts. Last week he ran them both about equally. Buffalo has struggled more vs man/gap than zone, so at least they may be able to take advantage of that with the running game. A big blow is losing IND center Ryan Kelly to IR with a calf injury. This line has been solid this season, but they may struggle losing a key piece here. The Bills are allowing the 3rd highest checkdown percentage this season, along with the most receptions and receiving yards to opposing RB’s. This looks like a great spot for Taylor in the passing game, but it already feels baked into the lines. I like his receiving line more in a lotto than straight up. Plenty of upside given the matchup, but the lines have baked in the great matchup for him.

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1+ TD -160

WR Josh Downs

Pittman has been ruled out so Downs takes over as the primary focus, which he has honestly already been with Flacco under center. With Flacco this season, he has 60+ receiving yards in every game, averaging 77.2 per game. We need Flacco to be decent to get Downs the ball, but there is plenty to like here, especially given a likely negative game script early. Downs is the Colts primary slot WR this season, playing there for 85.3% of his passing snaps. BUF is allowing the 7th most receiving yards out of the slot per game (87.4 yards). Given the chemistry with Flacco, the matchup and predicted game flow, this looks like a solid spot for Downs.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Alec Pierce

Pierce is the deep threat in this offense. He holds the highest aDOT (23.4) on the team and of the primary pass catchers holds the highest yards per reception (22.9). Even without Pittman healthy for this one, Pierce is hard to trust. The opportunities have been better with Flacco, as Pierce has had 3+ targets in 4 of the 5 games this season. Buffalo’s defense just isn't a prime matchup with the risk/reward here.

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PASS

TE Mo Allie Cox

Cox has seemingly disappeared in recent weeks. In the past 3 weeks, he doesn't have a single reception and only 2 targets. Buffalo is a middle of the pack team in receptions allowed to opposing TE’s this season, but do rank 9th in receptions allowed to TE’s. There just isn't enough to get behind here for Cox, who doesn't present as an outlet guy with an aDOT of 10.6 this season. He has fewer than 2 receptions in 7 of 9 this season and it's hard to see involvement in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Receptions (-145)

This doesn’t look great for IND. They’ll likely need to rely on the ground game without their starting center and unless Allen keeps them in this game with his mistakes, we’ll need elite Flacco in this one. This looks like a solid letdown spot for BUF as road favorites. I’m worried about Allen turning over the ball in this one, something he has started doing again over the last couple of games. However, I think both teams look to control the ball on the ground, which is why I like the under here.

Best Bet (Under 46.5 Pts -112)
Lean (BUF Bills -3.5 -150)
Bills 23 Colts 17