49ers vs Buccaneers @1:00 EST

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy continues to be steady for this 49ers offense, even if they aren’t the juggernaut from a season ago. He holds 200+ passing yards in every game this season. His biggest issue has been turning over the ball, but with McCaffrey back some pressure may come off of his shoulders. I think we are going to get some positive regression in the touchdown category. While only holding a 4% touchdown rate, he still ranks 2nd in dropbacks within the redzone. This Bucs defense has been bad against the pass. They have allowed the 3rd most passing yards to QB’s per game (274 yards), 2nd most completions per game (25.8) and are allowing 2 passing TD’s per game. TB plays a ton of zone, currently ranked at the highest rate in the NFL. Purdy has been good vs zone this season. He holds a 75% completion rate, 100.5 passer rating and 9.6 aDOT. TB has only forced 5 interceptions this season in 9 games, while giving up 18 touchdowns. This looks like a nice spot for Purdy in what could be a sneaky shootout game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 TD Passes (-152)
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

RB Christian McCaffrey

HEEEE’SSSSS BACCCKKK. I’ll be so happy to see him back on the field, but I’m left with a lot of questions prior to the game. What is his workload going to be like? What are the chances of re-aggravation? With Mason active, will there be more of a timeshare to start his return? How will he look? Most of these questions won’t be answered, so it’s hard to rush to take his overs. This lines are low for McCaffrey as the books don’t really know what to do either. The matchup isn’t great, as TB has allowed the 17th most rushing yards per game this season. Ultimately, McCaffrey is matchup-proof, but the workload is my primary concern. With his ability in both the rushing and passing game, Christian to score feels like the safest bet. Unfortunately, he’s getting his normal -220 juice or worse. Nothing I want to play here for either McCaffrey and Mason given the unknowns. Live plays will be a good look.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebos numbers have been pretty similar against both man and zone this season. In the past he’s been more of a “man coverage destroyer,” but the differences aren’t as stark this year. With his involvement in the rushing game, R+R is always a consideration, but with McCaffrey and Mason both healthy, does he get as much work? Yes, no Aiyuk, but Jennings should be back in this one. Deebo’s claim to fame is his yardage after the catch. He’s literally a WR in a running back’s body and when he gets up to speed, he’s tough to tackle. TB doesn’t give up a ton of yards after the catch, ranking 15th in the league. There isn’t a ton to love here in this matchup. I’ll look to fade his receptions, a mark that he has yet to hit in his last 5 games.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Recpetions (-115)

TE George Kittle

This looks like a nice spot for Kittle. The Bucs are allowing the second most receiving yards to opposing TE’s this season (69.7 per game) and 5th most receptions per game (6.11). Kittle owns a 9.3 aDOT, 21.3% target share and 13.43 YPR vs zone this season. Vs man, he owns a 6.2 aDOT, 19.4% target share and 12 YPR. He’s the one guy we can look to that really stands out in this matchup. Not to mention, he’s been awesome this season and probably the most reliable pass catcher in this offense. He holds 4+ receptions in every game and 40+ receiving yards in every game. He has 6 touchdowns in the 7 games he’s played in. Look for Purdy to look Kittle’s way often in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 55.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-120)
1+ TD (+140)

QB Baker Mayfield

Despite Baker being without his top weapons the last couple of weeks, he still managed to find ways to move the ball down the field. Tough matchup for him today without both Evans and Godwin again. Some slightly good news for Baker against this pass rush, is Bosa may be limited with a hip pointer injury. Shanny came out and said he’s not sure how much he’ll play. Despite the bad matchup, it’s tough to fade Baker in this one. He’s thrown for 200+ in his L4 games with 2+ touchdown passes in his last 6 games. SF’s defense plays man/zone coverage at around a league average rate. They honestly play a good mix of all coverages, besides Cover 2. The projections like Baker’s under 0.5 interceptions, but SF is forcing the 11th highest turnover-worthy throw % and Baker has 2 or more INT’s in 3 of his last 4 games. His rushing yards look the most interesting. SF doesn’t allow a ton of rushing, but also doesn't blitz at a high rate while still creating pressure. Pressure should force Baker outside or up in the pocket, creating rushing lane opportunities. He’s cleared 8.5 rushing yards as his longest rush in 8 of 9 games this season, with at least 3 rushing attempts in each of those.

Suggest Picks
‘O’ 8.5 Yards Longest Rush (-120)

RB Rachaad White

White has seemingly given up some work to Bucky and has acted more as the primary receiving back the last few weeks. That is likely why he is getting such a low rushing line here (24.5). Even with such a low line, I don’t want to touch it. SF is allowing the 5th fewest rushing yards to RB’s per game and White has only seen a total of 9 rushing attempts the last 2 weeks. Very easy to see a negative game script here with him more involved as a pass blocker/catcher. Despite having 3+ targets in each of the last 6 games, he’s only cleared 20 receiving yards in 3 of them. His reception line sits at 3.5, which is just too high for me. SF is allowing the 8th most receiving yards per game to opposing RB’s this season. It’s worth a look, but it’s not something I’m dying to take.

Suggested Picks
40+ Receiving Yards Lotto (+210) 

RB Bucky Irving

Bucky has been the more featured runner over the last couple of weeks, although in a bad matchup on Sunday. He holds 7+ rushing attempts in every game this season and 40+ rushing yards in all but 2 games. He’s also become more involved in the passing game with 3+ targets and receptions in each of the last 3 weeks. I’m not looking to back Bucky as a rusher, but I think his reception line has me intrigued.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Sterling Shepard

Shepard has missed some practice time this week with a hamstring injury, but looks to be good to play this week. We are still waiting on lines for him, but he acted as the Bucs primary slot WR this past week with a 69.2% snap share out of that spot. The 9ers are more susceptible to the slot, allowing the 5th most receiving yards per game (91.1) to the slot pass catcher. We know Baker is going to throw the ball plenty and with the injuries, Shepard should be one of his top targets. He’s coming off a 4 for 48 game with 5 targets. Depending on the lines, this could be a nice look.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ Receiving Yards (when posted)

TE Cade Otton

The 49ers have allowed an average of 38.3 receiving yards to opposing TE’s and 4.88 receptions per game this season. Otton has become the new WR! In this offense. Here are Otton’s last 3 games: 8 for 77 with a TD (11 targets), 9 for 81 with 2 TD’s (10 targets) and 8 for 100 (10 targets). The volume this man is getting is truly insane and there’s no reason to think it won’t continue this week. The books have adjusted, but the overs still look tempting to me. The matchup isn;t great though. The 49ers have allowed the 5th fewest receiving yards per game (38.3) to opposing TE’s, but 17th most receptions. However, surprisingly for a team that generates a good pass rush, they rank 27th in checkdown %. Either way, Otton’s receptions are too good to pass up.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-150)

This feels like such a good spot for the 49ers to get right. They get their prize RB back and face a swiss cheese defense. The Bucs have done such a good job the last couple of weeks without their two star WR’s, but they have faced an elite defense like SF. I think we see a solid effort for this TB team at home, but just not enough to overcome a healthier SF offense coming off their BYE week.

Best Bet (SF 49ers -5.5 -110)
Lean (Bucs TT ‘U’ 22.5)
49ers 27 Buccaneers 17