Falcons vs Saints @1:00 EST

QB Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins is in the midst of a good season with the Falcons, with a 7.89 YPA this season, ranking 9th in the NFL overall. The Saints are in man coverage very often, lining up in the coverage on 32.9% of their defensive snaps, which ranks 9th in the NFL. They also line up with 2-high safeties very often (51.1% of snaps which ranks 7th in the NFL). Cousins has been very accurate when seeing 2-high safeties, which a 72.5% completion rate that ranks 5th in the NFL overall among QBs with at least 25 dropbacks. Cousins did have a rough game in the first meeting of the season vs the Saints, but has totally flipped the switch on things since then and is currently in his best stretch of the season. The Saints have also been solid against the pass since that meeting, allowing only 8.0 yards per attempt (24th in the NFL). Atlanta is a slight favorite here, and Cousins has not aired the ball out as often as he used to Minnesota. With a lead, I do not like Cousins to have too many pass attempts against a team that gave him a hard time last game out.

Suggested Pick
'U' 32.5 pass attempts (-120)

RB Bijan Robinson

Robinson has asserted himself as valuable threat for the Falcons at RB both on the ground and through the passing game. He has slowly and methodically taken more of the rush share away from backup RB Tyler Allgeier, taking 76% of the carries last week for the Falcons. The Saints defense has really struggled on the season, giving up 5.08 YPC to opposing RBs, which is the 3rd highest in the NFL. They also have the 3rd lowest stuff rate in the NFL at only 36.8% on the year. He struggled against the Saints back in Week 4, but only got 7 carries in that game, which I would be shocked to see happen again. This is a great matchup for Robinson to run free against, especially if the Falcons can open up an early lead and use Bijan to hang on.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 77.5 Rush Yards (-110)
‘O’ 16.5 Yard Long Rush (-110)

WR Drake London

Drake London is easily Cousins’ best WR, and really has been one of the league’s better WRs this season. The issue here is that London is questionable with a hip injury suffered in the previous game. Despite that, the Falcons staff seems optimistic he will go despite being technically listed as questionable. London has been used much more as a slot receiver this year, lining up there on 36.1% of routes run, and it is impressive how versatile of a receiver London is. I see a lot of London in the slot against the Saints, a defense that has really struggled over the middle of the field in their 2-high safety sets. The Saints have given up 70.7 receiving yards per game to WRs that lined up in the slot, which is the 4th most in the NFL. As long as London is a go, this is a solid spot for him. Because I think most of the Falcons passing will come early in this game, I like a different angle on London.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 11.5 Rec Yards (-115)

WR Darnell Mooney

If for some reason London does not go in this game, Mooney is the player who will fill in as the Falcons’ next best option. Even if London does play, however, Mooney is a key player to watch. Mooney was looked to in a big way the last game after London went down, and saw an impressive 79.4% of the Falcons air yards on his targets. This means that Mooney is used as a deep threat and to stretch opposing defenses on the long ball. He has an aDOT of 11.6 on the year, which ranks 44th among all WRs, but also 14 registered deep targets, which is the 10th most in the NFL. The Saints give up 1.55 YPRR, which is the 10th highest in the NFL. This is certainly a dangerous spot for Mooney with or without London, so we will go with an angle that is less dependent on London’s status.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 22.5 Yard Long Reception (-115)

TE Kyle Pitts

Pitts has had an extremely difficult year to figure out. He has not been bad overall, but full of highs and lows and has been difficult to pinpoint. After a red hot 4 game stretch in which he cleared 65 receiving yards in 4 straight, he last week went for a confusing 1 catch and 11 yards. Alot of this can be attributed to the fact that Pitts was seeing unsustainable efficiency during his hot stretch, as he was making nearly every target he received count, but not seeing many targets overall. Last week, he was targeted literally once, which was 5.3% of his routes. Because Pitts is primarily a receiving TE, he does not play often when the Falcons look to be run-heavy. That is exactly what I see happening here, and I cannot project much from Pitts as a result.

Suggested Pick
‘U' 3.5 receptions (-115)

QB Derek Carr

In his first game back last week against the Panthers after missing the last 3 games, Carr had a gift of an opponent by facing the worst pass defense in the NFL in Carolina. He could not take advantage of that unfortunately, with a mediocre performance of 7.6 YPA against them. Carr also struggled in the first meeting of the season against the Falcons. What is scary for Carr and the Saints is that struggling meeting was with Rasheed Shaheed and Chris Olave. Olave will miss this game with a concussion, and Shaheed is out for the season, leaving Carr thin at WR options. The Falcons are in zone on 74.3% of snaps, which is the 8th highest in the NFL. Carr has been pretty solid overall against zone, with a 8.21 YPA that ranks 14th out of 45 NFL QBs with at least 25 dropbacks against zone defense. This is encouraging, but recent performances, health, and his last game out vs the Falcons would warn against being too optimistic.

Suggested Pick
Pass

RB Alvin Kamara

Kamara leads the NFL in combined RB touches (when considering both receptions and carries) at 196. He has been relied upon heavily with the injuries at QB and WR throughout the year for the Saints, and is being relied upon even more so without Jamaal Williams at RB, who is also injured at the moment. The injury to Shaheed seemed to correlate with a massive spike in volume in the receiving game, as he has been targeted on an impressive 36.0% of his routes run with no Shaheed. In the rushing game, the Falcons are vulnerable as well, having the 4th lowest stuff rate in the NFL at only 37.0%. He is asked to be their everything right now, even with Carr now back. He has been taken out of many games because of game script, but I expect this game to be close enough to work him all game long.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 16.5 Rush Attempts (-125)

Saints WRs

The Saints are literally down to practice squad WRs to fill the void at this point, making it extremely difficult to determine who will best contribute. Without Olave and Shaheed, the Saints looked often to Bub Means, a flashy rookie WR who turned some heads. However, Means is also now on IR, leaving the WR room primarily to Mason Tipton, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Cedrick WIlson. Tipton is probably the favorite to receive the bulk of Carr’s targets given that he did run a route on 85% of dropbacks last week. The issue is (and what causes uncertainty) is the fact that Tipton did not even record a catch. Another guy to keep an eye on potentially is Valdez-Scantling, who ran a route on 51% of snaps last week. The production also was not there, but he has proven to be a guy who can at least be serviceable in his time with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs over the last 2 seasons. All things considered, I think you see the Saints passing game severely limited here, with Taysom Hill or Alvin Kamara likely being the top receiving options.

Suggested Pick 
Pass

TE/FB/QB Taysom Hill

Hill played his season high in snaps last week at 35, and it makes sense considering how decimated the Saints are in terms of injuries just about anywhere else. He had 5 rushes for 19 yards last week, and also 4 receptions for 41 yards. It is tough to predict exactly where the Saints will use Hill since he can line up just about anywhere and make plays, but because of the load that we can expect from Kamara as well as Carr’s struggles (and the lack of WR options), I could see the Saints looking to diversify their rushing attack with many QB wildcat looks from Hill against a vulnerable rush defense.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 43.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-120)

It is just tough for me to imagine how New Orleans can stay in this game too long against the Falcons, and the Falcons only being favored by 2.5 points seems far too little, even on the road. The Falcons have quietly put together a nice season so far with Cousins, and on the other side of things you have a Saints offense that is going to get incredibly creative just by virtue of major personnel deficiencies and attrition.

Best Bet: Falcons -2.5 (-140)
Lean: Under 46.5 (-115)
Falcons 27 Saints 14