Vikings vs Jaguars @1:00 EST

QB Sam Darnold

Darnold is averaging 237.5 passing yards per game, 8.52 YPA and has thrown 17 TDs. He’ll face a Jaguars defense allowing the 2^nd most passing yards per game. The Jags have the 5^th lowest pressure rate over expectations. Darnold should be operating from a clean pocket most of the day. He averages 9.34 YPA in a clean pocket, compared to only 5.94 YPA when pressured. From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars play the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage (41%) and they allow the 6^th most fantasy points per drop back when they run it. Against man coverage, Darnold averages 10.71 YPA and an insanely efficient 120.4 QB rating. They also run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (51.6%). Against 2-high, Darnold has negative splits, averaging only 6.95 YPA. Darnold should be able to torch this defense. My one concern is a blowout.

Suggested Pick
“O” 243.5 Pass yds (-113)
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (-135)
3+ Pass TDs (+300)

RB Aaron Jones

Jones has been excellent in his first season with the Vikings. He averages 70.6 rush yards per game on 4.52 YPC. He has also averaged 30.6 receiving yards per game. The Jaguars are decent against the run, allowing the 10^th lowest YPC in the NFL (4.36). The Jags do however allow the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing RBs (49 ypg). They also allow the highest checkdown rate in the NFL (13.2%). From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars play the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage (41%) and they allow the 6^th most fantasy points per drop back when they run it. Jones is averaging 2.77 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes against man. This compares to 1.87 YPRR and targeted on 21% of his routes against zone. Jones has run a route on 69% and 65% of drop backs in the last 2 weeks. This has ladder potential. My only worry here is the game script.

Suggested Pick
“O” 17.5 Rec Yds (-113)
25+ Rec Yds (+162)
40+ Rec Yds (+350)
50+ Rec Yds (+600)

WR Justin Jefferson

JJetta averages 97.9 receiving yards per game, 3.29 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. He has a 1^st read rate of 38.4%. The Jaguars allow the 4^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars play the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage (41%) and they allow the 6^th most fantasy points per drop back when they run it. Against man coverage, Jefferson averages an insane 4.73 YPRR and has been targeted on 33% of his routes. They also run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (51.6%). Against 2-high, Jefferson has negative splits averaging 2.05 YPRR and 26% TPRR. Jefferson has lined up out wide on 69.3% of his routes and in the slot 29.8% of his routes. The Jags allow the 19^th highest target share to wide alignment (39.5%), and the 26^th highest target share to the slot (29.7%). Jefferson’s receiving line is currently set at 92.5, which he can certainly surpass, but the line feels right. I’d rather target anytime TD, as he has been held out the past 2 weeks, but the Jags are allowing the 6^th most receiving TDs to WR.

Suggested Pick
1+ TD (-105)

WR Jordan Addison

Addison is averaging 45.5 receiving yards per game, 1.7 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. The Jaguars allow the 4^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars play the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage (41%) and they allow the 6^th most fantasy points per drop back when they run it. Against man coverage, Addison averages 1.25 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. They also run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (51.6%). Against 2-high, Addison averages 1.97 YPRR and 15% TPRR. Addison has lined up out wide on 65.2% of his routes and in the slot on 34.8% of his routes. The Jags allow the 19^th highest target share to wide alignment (39.5%), and the 26^th highest target share to the slot (29.7%). I don’t have a strong lean here, but at a 39.5 receiving yard line, I’ll take the over. With only 4.7 targets per game and a low target rate, I’ll take the under in terms of receptions.

Suggested Pick
“O” 39.5 Rec Yds (-110)
“U” 3.5 Rec (-150)
Reverse Correlation Parlay (+471)

TE TJ Hockenson

Hockenson made his season debut last week after recovering from a serious knee injury last season. He played 45% of the snaps and ran a route on 52.5% of drop backs. He caught 3 balls on 4 targets for 27 receiving yards. He saw a 1^st-read rate of only 4.5%. For reference, he had a 25.8% 1^st-read rate last season. It may take him some time to get back in the swing of things. Matchup wise, the Jags are around middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards allowed to opposing TEs (53.89 ypg). Last week, he lined up in the slot 37.1% of his routes, inline 50.7% and out wide 12.2%. The Jags allow the 14^th highest target share to inline (11.5%), 19^th highest target share to wide alignment (39.5%), and the 26^th highest target share to the slot (29.7%). TJ likely sees a small increase in playing time in his 2^nd week back from injury. But it’s still hard to trust him even with a low line for him at 34.5 receiving yards.

Suggested Pick
Pass

QB Mac Jones

Lawrence is trending towards not playing week 10 with a shoulder injury. As a result, the Jaguars offense will be unpredictable. Mac Jones will make his first start with the Jags. Last season with the Patriots, Mac averaged 192.7 pass yards per game and threw for 10 TDs and 12 interceptions. He was benched multiple times throughout the year. He’ll face a Vikings defense that has the 6^th highest pressure rate over expected. They play 2-high at the highest rate in the league (69.5%), and for good reason as they allow the 4^th least fantasy points per drop back in this look. They also play zone at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (76.1%). Last season, Mac averaged 5.47 YPA and a QB rating of 51.4 while under pressure. That compares to 6.38 YPA and a 85.7 QB rating in a clean pocket. It’s hard to carry this over to a new team and system, so take that with a grain of salt. The Vikings are 7-point favorites and excellent against the run, so Mac will likely be forced to throw. It’ll be interesting to see if he can be effective.

Suggested Pick
“O” 0.5 Interceptions (-105)

RB Tank Bigsby

After seeing 26 and 18 carries weeks 7 and 8 with Etienne injured, his volume was down to 8 carries last week with Etienne’s return. To be fair this was a negative game script, and Etienne only carried the ball 3 times. I see another negative game script this week being 7-point underdogs and the Vikings forcing the 7^th highest pass rate over expectations. Bigsby has been effective this season, averaging 5.54 YPC, with 43.3% of his yards coming from explosive runs, which are 5^th and 4^th highest respectively amongst RBs with 50+ attempts. This will be a tough test against a Vikings defense that allows the 3^rd least YPC (3.83) and likely stacks the box with the Jags playing with a backup QB. Only 1.8% of attempts against the Vikings have gone for 15+ yards, this is not a good sign for Bigsby’s production. The Vikings are extremely effective in defending man/gap run concepts as they allow only 2.67 YPC.  51.6% of Bigsby’s attempts have been man/gap concepts, and he’s averaging 4.58 YPC.

Suggested Pick
“U” 48.5 Rush Yds (-115)

RB Travis Etienne

Etienne returned from injury last week and played 31% of the snaps, rushed 3 times for 24 yards and was targeted in the passing game 3 times. Prior to his injury, he started to lose touches to Bigsby, with a 38% and 18% snap share in weeks 5 and 6. He averages 4.31 YPC and has added 2 rushing TDs. This will be a tough test against a Vikings defense that allows the 3^rd least YPC (3.83) and likely stacks the box with the Jags playing with a backup QB. The Vikings are extremely effective in defending man/gap run concepts as they allow only 2.67 YPC. Etienne has seen 66.1% of his rush attempts in man/gap run concepts, averaging only 3.41 YPC and a 43.6% success rate. Those are both less efficient than Bigsby. It is hard to trust Etienne in this matchup with a reduced role as Bigsby emerges as the lead back. Too much unknown, and the line may reflect all this when it comes out.

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR Brian Thomas Jr

Brian Thomas, rookie WR out of LSU, has looked like an absolute stud. He’s averaging 66.1 receiving yards per game, 2.52 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He’ll face a Vikings defense that is allowing the 3^rd most receiving yards to opposing WRs. However, it is a bit unknown what type of chemistry he will have with Mac Jones. He’ll face a Vikings defense that has the 6^th highest pressure rate over expected. They play 2-high at the highest rate in the league (69.5%), and for good reason as they allow the 4^th least fantasy points per drop back in this look. They also play zone at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (76.1%). Against 2-high, Thomas averages 2.07 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. When his QB has been pressured, he averages only 0.78 YPRR and targeted on only 9% of his routes. Thomas has primarily lined up out wide (78.3%). The Vikings are allowing the 13^th highest target share out wide aligned WRs (41.2%). A lot of unknowns, but with a backup QB and negative splits when his QB is pressured, I lean under.

Suggested Pick
“U” 53.5 Rec Yds (-119)

TE Evan Engram

Engram is averaging 44.6 receiving yards per game, 1.89 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read target share at 25.9%. However, there’s a lot of unknowns about what the chemistry will look like with his backup QB, Mac Jones. The Vikings allow the 12^th least receiving yards to opposing TEs. The Vikings force the 6^th highest pressure rate over expected. They play 2-high at the highest rate in the league (69.5%), and for good reason as they allow the 4^th least fantasy points per drop back in this look. They also play zone at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (76.1%). Against 2-high, Engram averages 1.34 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. Against zone, he’s averaging 2.14 YPRR and 31% TPRR. Engram primarily lines up in the slot and inline, at 43.5% and 40% rates respectively. The Vikings allow the 3^rd lowest target share to inline (9.2%) and are around middle of the pack in target share allowed to the slot (31.6%). I am not bullish on this Jags team with Mac at QB whatsoever.

Suggested Pick
“U” 51.5 Rec Yds (-120)

I expect this game to be a blowout, as the Vikings are playing with a backup QB against a Brian Flores led defense, one that loves to send pressure. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings offense has been excellent this season, and against a weak Jacksonville pass defense, Darnold should be able to shred them apart. Vikings were able to get back on track last week defeating the Colts, after a 2-game skid. Love for them to get back to their dominant selves when they were 5-0.

Best Bet (Vikings -6.5 -130)
Lean (Over 42.5 -125)
Vikings 31 Jaguars 13