Steelers Team Overview
QB Russell Wilson
Wilson has averaged 271 passing yards per game in his 2 starts, averaging 9.51 YPA and has thrown 3 TDs. He’ll face a Commanders defense that allows the 5th least passing yards per game. The Commanders made a change in their defensive scheme in week 6. Since this change, they are running the 2nd highest frequency of single-high (65.2%) and the 3rd highest rate of man coverage (42.9%). They are also forcing the 7th highest pressure rate over expected since week 6. Against single-high, Russ is averaging 11.48 YPA and has thrown all 3 of his TDs. Against man, he is averaging 12.9 YPA. The Commanders scheme is a positive split for Russ, but this is a small 2 game sample size, and the Commanders defense has been excellent in this scheme. To be fair, the last top 10 QB the Commanders faced was Lamar Jackson in week 6, and he threw for 323 yards. Wilson’s passing line seems low at 219.5, I think there's upside here despite the Commanders pass defense looking elite as of late.
Suggested Pick
“O” 219.5 Pass Yds (-115)
250+ Pass Yds (+210)
RB Najee Harris
Najee has averaged 74 rush yards per game on 4.35 YPC. 33.3% of his rush yard production has come from explosive runs, which is up from 26.9% from last season. He’ll face a Commanders' defense that allows the 2nd most YPC (5.13) as well as the 3rd most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.67), which tries to isolate the defensive line ability. The Commanders’ defense has also been the #1 run funnel in the NFL, ranking 1st in rush rate over expected. Looking specifically at run schemes, 66.2% of Najee’s attempts have come in zone concepts, where he averages 4.48 YPC. The Commanders’ defense has had much better success against zone concepts, allowing 4.17 YPC (19th highest) compared to 6.17 YPC (#1 highest) against man/gap concepts. However, looking at QB positioning splits paints a better picture. The Commanders allow the most YPC against under center positioning, but only the 8th most against the shotgun formation. 100 out of 124 Najee rush attempts have come under center.
Suggested Pick
“O” 63.5 Rush Yds (-115)
80+ Rush Yds (+175)
90+ Rush Yds (+265)
100+ Rush Yds (+425)
WR George Pickens
On the season, Pickens is averaging 68.5 receiving yards per game, 2.66 YPRR and has a 1st-read target rate of 34.8%. If we look at just the past 2 weeks where Wilson started, he is averaging 92.5 receiving YPG, 3.36 YPRR and a 36.1% 1st-read target rate. The Commanders are middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards allowed to WRs. Since week 6, the Commanders have run the 2nd highest frequency of single-high (65.2%) and the 3rd highest rate of man coverage (42.9%). Pickens has a 40.9% 1st-read target rate vs man. Against single-high, Pickens averages 2.96 YPRR and sees a 40.2% 1st-read target rate. Pickens has lined up out wide 70.9% of his routes. The rest has been in the slot. Washington is allowing the 7th highest target rate to wide alignment (43.5%).
Suggested Pick
“O” 65.5 Rec Yds (-108)
WR Van Jefferson / Calvin Austin / Mike Williams
The Steelers do not have a true WR2 that has stepped up besides George Pickens. They made a trade for Mike Williams before the deadline to try to address this. Mike may play a few snaps, but it is hard to imagine anything significant with him just getting to Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Steelers have Calvin Austin who is averaging 32.1 receiving YPG, while Van Jefferson is averaging 17.4 YPG. Week 8, Van Jefferson had 62 receiving yards and Austin had 54 receiving yards. Week 7, Jefferson had 15 receiving yards and Austin had 1 catch for 36 yards. This receiving corps outside of Pickens and Freiermuth is inconsistent and not worth betting on either side. Especially with Mike Williams possibly slotting in for a few drop backs.
Suggested Pick
Pass
TE Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth is averaging 33.3 receiving yards per game, 1.41 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He has a 1st-read rate of 14.8%, 2nd on the Steelers behind Pickens. The Commanders are allowing the 7th least receiving yards to opposing TEs (38.89). Pat has lined up all over, 23.4% out wide, 44.1% in the slot and 31.9% inline. The Commanders are allowing the 5th highest target share to the slot (37%), but the 2nd lowest target share to inline (7%). Since week 6, the Commanders have run the 2nd highest frequency of single-high (65.2%) and the 3rd highest rate of man coverage (42.9%). Against man, Pat averages 1.17 YPRR and has been targeted on 13% of his routes. Against single-high, Pat averages 1.4 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. Freiermuth has only been targeted 5 times in 2 weeks with Wilson as QB, I’d fade him in this matchup.
Suggested Pick
“U” 25.5 Rec Yds (-120)
Commanders Team Overview
QB Jayden Daniels
Daniels is averaging 242.4 passing yards per game outside of the game he was injured early on. He’s averaging 8.53 YPA and has thrown 9 TDs and 2 interceptions. He has also added 51 rush yards per game. He’ll face a Steelers defense that has allowed the 10th most passing yards per game (238.5) and the 2nd fewest rush yards per game to opposing QBs (7). The Steelers are running single-high at the highest frequency in the NFL (68%). They specifically run Cover 3 at the 2nd highest rate (45.6%). Against single-high, Daniels has averaged 9.44 YPA and has a QB rating of 103.3. Against Cover 3, he’s averaging 10.0 YPA. Both are positive splits. In terms of pressure, nothing stands out as the Steelers have the 12th highest pressure rate over expected. Daniels has averaged 7.55 YPA and a 88.4 QB rating when pressured compared to 8.77 YPA and a 111.1 QB rating when operating from a clean pocket. This is not that drastic of a drop off, and considering the Steelers are about average in pressure rate, no major insight to guide our thinking. The Steelers have not played many mobile QBs so it’s hard to get a tell on how Daniels will fare in the running game. I’d rather target passing.
Suggested Pick
“O” 223.5 Pass yds (-114)
RB Brian Robinson
BRob averages 65.9 rush yards per game on 4.56 YPC. He has also added 6 rushing TDs. He missed last week due to a hamstring injury, and he has been limited throughout the week. He’s officially questionable for Sunday. The Commanders face a Steelers rush defense that has allowed the 4th least YPC (3.96), and the 3rd least rushing TDs (4). Only 2.7% of the runs against the Steelers were explosive, 3rd lowest behind the Chiefs and Vikings. The Steelers have been much better defending man/gap concept runs. They allow the lowest success rate (36%). This compares to a 50.5% success rate allowed to zone concept (12th worst). 54.5% of Brian’s rush attempts have come in man/gap concepts, where he averages 5.18 YPC and a 50.9% success rate. This compares to a 54.3% success rate and only 3.83 YPC in zone concepts.
Suggested Pick
“U” Rush Yds (line not out)
WR Terry McLaurin
McLaurin averages 66.4 receiving yards per game, 2.48 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He leads the Commanders in 1st-read rate at 28.4%. He’ll face a Steelers defense that allows the 10th most receiving yards to WR. The Steelers are running single-high at the highest frequency in the NFL (68%). They specifically run Cover 3 at the 2nd highest rate (45.6%). Against single-high, Terry averages 2.63 YPRR and has a 1st-read rate of 25.7%. Terry smashes against Cover 3, averaging 3.76 YPRR. McLaurin has lined up out wide 82.2% of the time and in the slot 17.8%. The Steelers are 20th in target share allowed to wide alignment (38.6%). Terry will likely be shadowed by one of the top up and coming CBs, Joey Porter. The best production Porter has allowed this season was Michael Pittman in week 4, who caught 3 receptions for 71 yards against him. The other WRs he’s shadowed at least 65% of the time have only combined for 2 total catches for 33 yards. WOW!
Suggested Pick
“U” 58.5 Rec Yds (-115)
WR Noah Brown
Brown averages 39.8 receiving yards per game, 2.32 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He joined the team late, so he had a slow start in terms of playing time, but he has a route rate of 71.7% and 76.0% the last 2 weeks. That has resulted in his top production of the season, with 73 yards and 60 yards respectively. The Steelers are running single-high at the highest frequency in the NFL (68%). They specifically run Cover 3 at the 2nd highest rate (45.6%). Against single-high, Brown averages 2.23 YPRR and is 2nd behind Terry in 1st-read rate (19.8%). Looking more specifically at Cover-3, Brown averages 2.44 YPRR and has a 26% 1st-read rate, that’s only slightly behind McLaurin (27.3%). With Terry likely shadowed by Joey Porter, I love this spot for Brown to produce.
Suggested Pick
40+ (-120)
50+ (+145)
60+ (+230)
70+ (+350)
TE Zach Ertz
Ertz is averaging 38.9 receiving yards per game, averaging 1.6 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He has a route rate participation of 69.7%. The Steelers are allowing the 10th least yards to opposing TEs on the season. He has lined up all over, 13.7% of his routes from out wide, 54.3% from the slot and 31.1% from inline. The Steelers are allowing the 10th highest target share to the slot (34.3%) and the 8th lowest target share to inline (10%). The Steelers are running single-high at the highest frequency in the NFL (68%). They specifically run Cover 3 at the 2nd highest rate (45.6%). Against single-high, Zach averages 1.31 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. Against Cover 3 more specifically, he averages 1.58 YPRR and 19% TPRR. This is an average matchup and with a line of 33.5, which he has hit in 3 of L4, I’d lean over.
Suggested Pick
“O” 33.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Game Prediction
This is a battle between 2 teams that are outperforming preseason expectations, with the Steelers 6-2 and the Commanders 7-2. They are also both coming into this game winning 3 straight. I believe the key here will be the Steelers ability to run against a below average Washington rush defense. If the Steelers commit to this, they will be able to control time of possession and keep the ball out of the hands of the rookie sensation, Jayden Daniels. I’ll take the points with what I believe to be an evenly matched game.
Best Bet (Steelers +3.5 -140)
Lean (Over 44.5 -106)
Steelers 24 Commanders 21