Broncos vs Chiefs @1:00 EST

QB Bo Nix

Bo is averaging 194.8 passing yards per game and has thrown 8 TDs. He has also added 32.8 rushing yards per game. He has thrown for 284 and 223 passing yards L2 weeks in good matchups against the Panthers and Ravens. Now he faces a Chiefs defense that allows the 12^th least passing yards per game (217.9). The Chiefs have the 6^th highest pressure rate over expectations. When pressured, Nix averages 4.00 YPA and has a 34.7 QB rating. That’s down from 6.61 YPA and a 94.5 QB rating in a clean pocket. The Chiefs play 2-high safeties at the 2^nd highest rate in the NFL (63.3%). They play man coverage 35.3% of the time, 8^th highest. Against 2-high, Bo averages 4.83 YPA and has a QB rating of 79.3. This is a negative split compared to single-high, where he averages 6.83 YPA. Nix’s passing line is currently sitting at 213.5. In a tough matchup, I lean under.

Suggested Pick
'U' 213.5 Pass Yds (-120)

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte is averaging 43 rush yards per game on an inefficient 3.79 YPC. This ranks 8^th lowest amongst RBs with 50+ carries. He gets a brutal matchup against a Chiefs defense that allows the 2^nd lowest YPC (3.69). The Broncos currently rank 10^th in pass rate over expectations and the Chiefs defense forces the 8^th highest pass rate over expectations. With the Chiefs being 8.5-point favorites, it’s hard to see Javonte being able to get anything going in this game. Looking at the receiving game, Javonte averages 24 receiving YPG and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He has a 43.7% route rate. The Chiefs have the 6^th highest pressure rate over expectations. When Bo is pressured, Javonte has only seen a target on 8% of his routes. The Chiefs also allow the 12^th lowest target share to the backfield (15%). Not a compelling reason to play either side in the receiving game for Javonte. Despite this being one of the toughest matchups, Javonte’s rush line is only set at 38.5. He’s hit this in 5 of L6. I don’t see value on either side.

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR Courtland Sutton

Sutton leads the Broncos in receiving by a wide margin, averaging 55.4 yards per game. He averages 1.83 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 30.9%. He runs into an awful matchup against a Chiefs defense that is allowing the least receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. He went for 46 and 29 receiving yards against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs play 2-high safeties at the 2^nd highest rate in the NFL (63.3%). Against two-high, Sutton has been targeted on 29% of his routes, but his YPRR is down to 1.24. His 1^st-read rate has remained steady at 31.3% against this look. Sutton has lined up out wide on 85.7% of his routes.  The Chiefs allow the 2^nd lowest target share out wide (32.5%) and the highest target share to the slot (39.6%).  Awful matchup for Sutton to produce.

Suggested Pick
'U' 52.5 Rec Yds (-123)

WR Troy Franklin

Franklin averages 1.17 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He has a route participation rate of 39.1%. He was up to mid-60% rates in weeks 6 and 7 before dropping back down to 33.3% in week 7. Last week that rate rose back slightly to 47.6%. Coach Payton has been unpredictable in terms of playing time for his young players. Franklin has the highest aDOT on the team (15.4), meaning he’s been the downfield threat. He runs into an awful matchup against a Chiefs defense that is allowing the least receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. The Chiefs play 2-high safeties at the 2^nd highest rate in the NFL (63.3%). Franklin’s YPRR increases to 1.42, but his TPRR decreases to 20% against this look. He has lined up out wide on 64.4% of his routes and in the slot 35.6% of the time. The Chiefs allow the 2^nd lowest target share out wide (32.5%) and the highest target share to the slot (39.6%). Not a matchup I want to target Franklin.

Suggested Pick
'U' 1.5 Rec (+126)

WR Devaughn Vele

Josh Reynolds has been out the past 4 weeks with an injury, and he was more recently involved in a shooting incident. I wouldn’t expect him to return this week. With Reynolds out, Vele has seen some playing time. He has a 49.8% route participation rate when he has been active. He averages 35.2 receiving yards per game. His aDOT (7.3) is much lower than Sutton (14) and Franklin (15.4), he’s being used as the underneath guy. This should be a difficult matchup against a Chiefs defense that allows the least receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. However, the Chiefs do allow the highest target share to the slot (39.6%). Vele has been the primary slot guy, running 81.6% of his routes from this alignment. The Chiefs play 2-high safeties at the 2^nd highest rate in the NFL (63.3%). Against 2-high, Vele leads the Broncos in YPRR (2.5).  If there’s one guy I’d choose to produce against this elite pass defense, it’s Vele.

Suggested Pick
'O' 21.5 Rec Yds (-114)
25+ Rec Yds (+100)
40+ Rec Yds (+250)
50+  Rec Yds (+425)

TE Adam Trautman/Lucas Krull

Usually, the Chiefs are a team to target opposing TEs, but I find it difficult to recommend either one of these guys with coach Payton proving extremely inconsistent in playing time from week to week. Greg Dulcich has been a healthy scratch for 5 straight weeks. In those weeks, Krull and Trautman split the receiving work, but neither have seen a route participation rate above 55%. In week 7, Krull led the TEs in route rate at 54.5% compared to Trautman’s 36.4%. But in week 9, Trautman led the TEs in route rate at 45.2% compared to Krull’s 28.6%. No consistency here. The Chiefs do allow the most receiving yards to opposing TEs (80.4 YPG). They also allow the 4^th highest inline target share allowed (12.9%) and the highest slot target share (39.6%), the 2 alignments where TEs typically line up. If you want to gamble, take a long shot for one of these guys to produce, but I can’t recommend one guy over the other with Sean Payton’s inconsistencies.

Suggested Pick
Pass

QB Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is averaging 242.8 passing yards per game, 7.22 YPA and has thrown 11 TDs. He faces a Broncos defense that allows the 6^th least passing yards per game. Denver forces the 4^th highest pressure rate over expectations. When pressured, Mahomes’ averages 5.49 YPA and a 61.5 QB rating. Broncos run single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and run man at the 4^th highest rate (36.8%). Against single-high, Mahomes has positive splits, averaging 7.60 YPA and has a QB rating of 90.4. Mahomes had his best game of the season this past week against Tampa Bay, throwing for 291 yards and 3 TDs. He was able to connect with his new weapon, DHop for 2 TDs. This may help open the passing game for the Chiefs after the season ending injury to Rashee Rice. But this is a tough matchup against a talented Denver defense. His current line is set at 233.5 passing yards, which he’s hit in 5 of 8 games and in 5 straight vs Denver, I lean over despite the tough matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 233.5 Pass Yds (-115)

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem has had massive volume since he signed with the Chiefs with the injury to Pacheco. He has 27, 22, 21 and 27 attempts in his last 4 games. However, he has not been efficient. He currently averages 3.73 YPC, 6^th least amongst RBs with 50+ attempts. His longest rush of the season is 15 yards. But volume is king when it comes to production for RBs. He faces a Denver defense that allows 3.98 YPC, 5^th least in the NFL. Denver as a defense is allowing the 8^th highest run rate over expectations. The volume should be there in a game the Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites, but it’ll be interesting to see how effective Kareem can be. Looking at the receiving game, Hunt has only seen 1.6 targets per game, which has turned into 10.6 receiving YPG. He has only ran a route on 28.7% of passing snaps. Perine has been the clear receiving back. The Broncos are allowing the 11^th most receiving yards to opposing RBs (37.33 YPG).

Suggested Pick
“O” 67.5 Rush Yds (-120)

WR DeAndre Hopkins

In Hopkins’ 2^nd week with the Chiefs, he had a 62% route rate, up from 33% in week 8. He was effective with 86 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 2 TDs. He was targeted on 29% of his routes. He also had a 1^st-read rate of 28%, only behind Kelce on the Chiefs. Matchup wise, the Broncos are allowing the 8^th least receiving yards per game. Surtain, arguably the top corner in the league, has been shadowing and shutting down opposing WR1s. Surtain likely shadows DHop in this one. Hopkins has lined up out wide on 64.4% of his routes since being traded to the Chiefs. The Broncos are allowing the 5^th lowest target share to wide aligned WRs (36.1%). Looking at the defensive scheme, Broncos run single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and run man at the 4^th highest rate (36.8%). Against man, Hopkins is averaging 0.83 YPRR compared to 2.39 YPRR against zone. At this point in his career, DHop does not have the explosiveness to separate as well in man, and against a top CB like Surtain, I find it tough to see him produce.

Suggested Pick
“U” 50.5 Rec Yds (-110)

WR Xavier Worthy

On the season, Worthy averages 29.4 receiving yards per game, 1.08 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. He has been targeted more down field than any other Chiefs receiver, with the highest aDOT on the team (11.6). Matchup wise, the Broncos are allowing the 8^th least receiving yards per game. On the season, Worthy has lined up out wide on 61.8% of his routes. However, last week, he only ran 51.4% of his routes out wide and 43.2% in the slot, seems like a bit different role with Hopkins. The Broncos allow the 14^th highest slot target rate (33.1%) and the 5^th lowest wide alignment target rate (36.1%). Considering Hopkins is likely shadowed by Surtain, Worthy could see more looks. Scheme wise, the Broncos run single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and run man at the 4^th highest rate (36.8%). Against man, Worthy has been targeted on 30% of his routes and has averaged 1.42 YPRR, positive splits. I like Worthy to catch a deep ball in this one with all the attention on DHop and Kelce.

Suggested Pick
“O” 30.5 Rec Yds (-114)

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce averages 54.4 receiving yards per game, 1.84 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. Since Rashee has been out, his averages have increased to 69.3 receiving YPG, 2.08 YPRR and targeted on 32% of his routes. The Broncos currently allow the 11^th lowest YPG to opposing TEs. Kelce lines up all over, 28.4% out wide, 43.2% in the slot and 27.1% inline. The Broncos allow a 11.5% target share to inline and a 33.1% target share to the slot, both middle of the pack. They allow the 5^th lowest target share to wide alignment (36.1%). Scheme wise, the Broncos run single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and run man at the 4^th highest rate (36.8%). Against single-high, Kelce averages 2.66% YPRR and a 30% TPRR. Against man coverage, Kelce averages 2.45 YPRR. These are both positive splits, setting up Kelce for a lot of production. In his last 2 games against Denver, Kelce has 124 and 58 receiving yards.

Suggested Pick
“O” 57.5 Rec Yds (-115)
70+ Rec Yds (+155)
80+ Rec Yds (+250)
90+ Rec Yds (+400)

Last time these 2 teams played, the Broncos upset the Chiefs winning 24-9. Both the Broncos and Chiefs have elite defenses, and as divisional rivals, they know each other well. As a result, I expect a lot of field goal production as opposed to touchdowns. Besides last week, Mahomes quietly has not put up amazing numbers. Denver and Kansas City are both known for pressuring the opposing QBs, and Nix and Mahomes have struggled when under pressure this season. They also have lockdown run defenses. I just don’t see a lot of points being scored here, and I’ll take the points in what I expect to be a low scoring close game.

Best Bet (Under 42.5 -125)
Lean (Broncos +8.5 -135)
Chiefs 23 Broncos 17