Giants vs Panthers @9:30 EST

QB Daniel Jones

Jones is coming off a respectable game last week vs the Commanders, completing 76% of his passes with 2 touchdown passes. This week, he gets a friendlier matchup than the solid Washington secondary in the Carolina Panthers, with these two teams facing off in Germany. Carolina is a zone heavy defense, lining up in zone on 74.4% of snaps which ranks 6th most in the NFL. Jones has not been much better against zone than he has against man, only gaining 6.48 YPA against zone. Carolina does not get much pressure on the QB, however, and are last place in pressure rate at 22.3. This is great news for Jones, who has drastic split differences with and without pressure. When facing pressure, he has only a 4.14 YPA (4th worst in NFL). With no pressure, he is middle of the road among NFL QBs, at 7.04 YPA. Jones has been slightly better as of late, and I see an efficient game from him against a weaker pass defense.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 20.5 Pass Completions (+100)

RB Tyrone Tracy

Tracy is a breakout star at who has broke onto the scene over the past few weeks, running away with the majority of the backfield touches for the Giants. Tracy has at least 16 carries in 4 of his last 5 games. The Panthers defense has been carved by rushing attacks this season. They have only put up a 34.2% Stuff-Rate this year, which is the 2nd lowest mark in the NFL. They have done a good job of avoiding explosive runs nevertheless, with only 3.8% of opponent runs breaking free for an explosive play. It has been through intermediate runs that teams have had success against the Panthers. 61.8% of Tracy’s runs have been 3 yards or more. This provides us a good formula for the Giants to use him often to stay ahead of the sticks on early down, which should result in high volume.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 16.5 Rush Attempts (+105)

WR Malik Nabers

Nabers has been likely the most impressive rookie WR, and is already by far Jones’ best option at WR. He suffered a concussion earlier this year, and has absolutely dominated the targets in the 3 games since his return, going for 29.8%, 35.1% and 42.4% of the targets over the last 3 weeks. He has made his routes count as well, going for 2.26 yards per route run. Defensively, the Panthers have given up the 2nd most yards per route run in the NFL at 1.74. Carolina has been picked apart especially by opposing WR1s, with Nabers likely seeing a lot of Mike Jackson at CB in this matchup, but the zone-heavy looks should make it more about where Nabers can find space across the field. Nabers has been one of the best WRs in the NFL against single-high safety coverage, with a 2.82 YPRR against the coverage that ranks 4th in the NFL. Look for a big day from a young WR.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-128)

WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Robinson is an interesting player in that for much of his career he has been targeted extremely often, but exclusively near the line of scrimmage or close to it. This year his 4.1 aDOT is the 2nd lowest in the NFL, despite averaging just under 9 targets per game. However, recent weeks have shown that the Giants may be moving away from this gameplan, with only a 13.6% and 15.3% target share for Robinson over the past 2 games. I know the matchup is solid for Robinson, but the books do not seem to be accounting for his recent dip in action for the Giants.

Suggested Play:
u37.5 receiving yards (-110)

TE Theo Johnson

Johnson is finally starting to find his chemistry with Jones over the past 5 weeks, as he has gone for at least 30 yards in 4 of the last 5 games as well as seeing a career high 6 targets last week vs the Commanders. The Panthers defense has really struggled against the tight end position this year, with them giving up 63.4 yards per game to the position, which is the 4th most in the NFL. With Darius Slayton out for the Giants at WR, I think we could see some targets to Johnson that would typically go to Slayton, with both being big bodied options who can high point a ball. Look for Johnson in the red zone in this case specifically.

Suggested Play:
1+ TD (+370)

QB Bryce Young/QB Andy Dalton

Tough to have any leans at the QB position for the Panthers when head coach Dave Canales is yet to announce his starter yet. Bryce Young had a solid outing last week vs the Saints, so I would favor his chances here, but it is unknown for sure. In terms of what either QB will see, the Giants typically close the middle of the field and force QBs to make throws to the boundaries. They have 1-high safety and a closed middle of the field on 61.0% of snaps, which ranks 4th in the NFL. The Panthers have not been much better against 1-high than most other coverages, with only a 6.25 YPA (28th), but do have a 65.2 % completion percentage (13th in NFL). The Giants in general are not a great passing defense, giving up 7.80 YPA (27th in NFL). If the starter can avoid the simple mistakes that have plagued them often thiis year, whether it is Young or Dalton, there could be a window for a decent day. 

Suggested Play
Pass

RB Chuba Hubbard

The Panthers rush attack has a decent matchup in this game, playing a Giants team that is giving up 5.1 YPC to opposing RBs, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. Hubbard has seen a massive workload over the past 5 weeks, clearing 15 rush attempts in 4 of the last 5 games. However, there is some uncertainty in terms of what Carolina will do with their RB room as Jonathan Brooks should be good to go this week. One angle i could see Hubbard having an edge here, however, is on a longer rush. Hubbard has run for 15+ yards on 6% of his carries, which ranks 17th in the NFL among 70 RBs with 25 or more rush attempts. The Giants have given up the most 15+ yard rushes in the NFL, at 7.7% of rushes against.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 16.5 Yard Long Rush (-110)

WR Xavier Legette

Diontae Johnson started the season as the Panthers’ primary target. However in his absence, it appears Xavier Legette will take over as the team’s primary option. Over the course of the season, Legette has been targeted 13.8% of the time. However, over the past 2 weeks, this has shot up to 20.3%. Legette has been a prolific red zone threat for the Panthers. He leads the team by a wide margin in red zone targets with 6. Johnson was also a major red zone threat prior to his trade, so I see this number not only sustaining itself but potentially even growing. Teams are having success against the Giants pass defense, with them giving up 8.60 yards per target, which is the 4th most in the NFL.

Suggested Play 
‘O’ 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
1+ TD (+360)

WR Jalen Coker

Coker has been efficient when he is on the field, averaging a team high 2.12 yards per route. The issue for him has been that even without Johnson, he has not gotten on the field with any relative consistency, at only 58.7% of the time. He has been a solid YAC threat, and leads the team with YAC among WRs at 76 total YAC, even over the jaw dropping speed that Legette is known for. It is very possible that Coker could begin to see more playing time given that he has put up consistent results this year while on the field, but the inconsistency in his usage makes it difficult to predict his numbers as well as any other second receiving options behind Legette.

Suggested Pick
Pass

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

TE Tomy Trimble has been out the past couple of weeks for the Panthers, leaving the majority of the TE routes and snaps to Ja’Tavion Sanders. This week, we could see a scenario where Tremble comes back, which would cut into Sanders usage at TE. However even if he does not, this is a solid sell-high spot on Sanders against a Giants defense that has been surprisingly tough on TEs through their 1-high closed middle of the field looks defensively. It was a solid week last week, but this matchup is far tougher plus we have the potential for Tremble to appear in this game.

Suggested Pick
Pass

Daniel Jones has been a little better lately, but I also like the Panthers offense a little more in this one as well, regardless of who starts at QB, given some momentum they are bringing into this game from a week ago. This should be an ugly game between 2 teams that really have no answer. I see the Giants being a little more polished in terms of their playmaking positions, but I am not sure if it is enough to warrant a 7.5 point spread.

Best Bet: Panthers +7.5 (-150)
Lean: Under 40.5 (-115)
Giants 20 Panthers 17