TNF Bengals vs Ravens @8:15 EST

QB Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow is coming off an incredibly impressive performance last Sunday, in which he threw for 5 TDs without his 2nd best WR in Tee Higgins. The Ravens are an incredibly multiple defense, ranking middle of the road in both Man% and Zone%, so Burrow should be seeing a lot of different kinds of coverages. In general, they have struggled in the passing game often this year while transitioning to a new DC. They have given up a 65.9% completion rate (22nd in NFL), a 7.9 YPA (28th in NFL), and a 13.7% Deep-Ball catch rate. Perhaps most jarringly, they have given up the overall highest QBR against, at an extremely high 120.6. There is a chance Burrow is going to have Higgins back tonight, and with the Bengals needing to catch up with the Ravens offense, I see the passing game and Burrow as a good spot for the Bengals to stay in this game with. The yardage is set a bit high, but his attempts would appear to be a good spot to target.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 35.5 Pass Attempts (-130)

RB Chase Brown

Brown looks to have established himself as a clear number 1 option for the Bengals. Last week, he went for 157 total yards and 27 rush attempts. He has been in the upper half of the NFL in explosiveness, but has also established himself (at least last week) as a workhorse as well. Brown has broken free for a 10+ yard run on 13.5% of his carries, which ranks 17th out of 70 RBs with at least 25 carries. He also has gone for 20+ on 3.8% of his carries, which ranks 16th out of the same 70. The issue for Brown and the matchup with the Ravens here is that the Ravens are excellent at preventing explosive runs, with only 103 explosive rush yards allowed all season. The Ravens defense is also much more vulnerable through the air as it is on the ground, and a negative game script seems very possible here.

Suggested Bet:
Pass

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Despite the 5 TD game from Burrow last week, his best WR was held relatively quiet, with only 43 total yards in the game. Tonight, Chase is very much dependent on an individual level on the status of Tee Higgins, who is questionable. In many ways, he has put up better numbers with Higgins on the field, with 3.12 YPRR with him (and 10.7 air yards per target) as opposed to only 1.30 YPRR without him, despite a higher target share without him for obvious reasons. This is because with Higgins, the Bengals offense is able to utilize both WRs as a deep threat with attention from the secondary being drawn towards the other WR (whether it is Higgins or Chase). Baltimore has struggled mightily in the passing game defensively, and Chase is going to be a factor either way.

Suggested Bet:
(With Higgins): Ja’Marr Chase ‘O’ 26.5 yard long reception (-110)(Without Higgins): Ja’Marr Chase ‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Tee Higgins

Although Higgins is questionable and has missed much of the season, he has made a huge impact when he has played this year. Tee Higgins has a 27.6% target rate, and actually has seen more action than Chase (22.8% target share overall). He also has the highest target per route run of WRs on the Bengals, at 0.27, and also is averaging 2.14 yards per route run, which is just behind Chase. The primary difference factor that Higgins brings is that the vertical offense opens up in games he has played in, as mentioned in the Chase write-up. It is obviously uncertain whether he will play at all, and even if he does the extent of action he will get, but these are notes to consider in case he does suit up.

Suggested Bet:
Pass

TE Mike Gesecki

Mike Gesecki is another player that has been much more productive without Higgins on the field. In games with no Higgins, he is being targeted nearly 29.7% of the time and averages over 3 yards per route run. Even if Higgins doesn’t play, this could be a sneaky spot for Gesicki. The Ravens defense has been hurt bad by TEs this year just as the Bengals defense has. They are averaging 67.6 yards per game allowed to TEs, which is the 3rd most in the NFL. Erick All is out for this game and the season, so we should see plenty of Gesicki tonight.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Lamar Jackson

When these 2 teams faced off in Week 5, Cincinnati made the mistake of trying to stop Lamar by bringing a ton of pressure at him, with a 40.4% passing blitz rate in that game. Jackson has torched aggressive defenses this year, and ranks 7th with a 7.03 YPA against the blitz. The confusing aspect of this as we get ready for this game is determining whether the Bengals go back to the approach that got them burned so heavily in a dominant Week 5 performance, as typically they do not blitz as frequently. Another issue for the Bengals could be Jackson on the ground. It is no secret that Jackson is the best dual-threat QB in the league, and he gets a Bengals defense that leads the league in rushing yards to QBs per game. However, Jackson has been banged up in recent weeks, so they may catch a break.

Suggested Bet:
Pass

RB Derrick Henry

Henry has been the NFL’s premiere workhorse RB this season, leading the NFL in total rush attempts at 168, total yards at 1052, and rush yards per game at 116.9. He has not just been good because of volume, but has been efficient as well, with a 6.26 YPC that ranks 7th in the NFL among RBs just at least 10 carries. Henry had an effective game against the Bengals in their first matchup, but what was interesting here is this was a game the Bengals led for much of the game, and actually limited Henry’s work holding him to only 16 carries. The Bengals have not been a good rush defense at all, with the highest RB success rate allowed in the NFL at 54.4%. With the Ravens more likely to build a lead this week, I like Henry to get a lot of work even on the short week against a poor rush defense.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 17.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
‘O’ 92.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Flowers is in the midst of a breakout season, and after last week’s 127 yards game has now hit 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. He is top 10 in the NFL this season in yards per route run at 2.45, and is also being targeted on 27% of his routes. As mentioned in the Lamar Jackson section, the Bengals elected to bring heavy pressure the first 2 times these teams met. Flowers’ team target share is 31.2% when Jackson is under pressure, although with only a 45.8% catch-rate. The pressure should allow Flowers to have some 1 on 1 matchups, and he has a 16.3 aDOT against pressure. It is hard for me to bet Flowers overall given his likely game script. In the first half, however, I like him to be the Ravens top target while the passing game still should be relatively active.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 29.5 1H receiving yards (-120)

WR Diontae Johnson

Last week I wrote in covering the Broncos-Ravens matchup about the importance of the Dionte Johnson trade and how he could eventually become the Ravens WR1. This did not look all that close to happening last week, as he only ran 6 total routes and did not get 1 target. I anticipate more action in terms of routes this week, but given that this is a short week and without too much practice we should not see that big of a difference in his projected workload. As mentioned last week, he ranks 5th in the NFL in red zone targets. With Flowers dominating the neutral area of the field, I think we could see Johnson develop into a red zone threat for this team, and that is where I would once again take my chance this week.

Suggested Bet:
1+ TD (+445)

TE Mark Andrews

After a hot stretch in prior weeks, Andrews cooled down last week, only pulling in 2 receptions. However, something interesting to consider heading to this game is the fact that Isaiah Likely is listed as questionable. Even if he does play, there is a good chance we will see Andrews on the field more consistently. What we do not know however, is if less Likely means Andrews will be used to help more in blocking schemes or in running routes. Regardless, tight ends have had big games against the Bengals, including the combination of Ravens TEs back in Week 5. TEs are seeing 7.9 YPT against the Bengals, which is the 10th most in the NFL. I think we could see this as a sneaky bounceback spot for Andrews with Likely questionable and a softer number after last week.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-140)

With a total being set at 52.5, a lot of points are being expected here, which is understandable given the state of both defenses as well as 2 very capable offenses facing off. I expect the Ravens to be able to dominate the Cincinnati defense early through both the passing and rushing attack. The Bengals on the other hand, may have to rely more on the arm of Burrow. Because of this I favor the Ravens matchup offensively more than I do the Bengals. If the Ravens are able to build a lead, you will see them try and completely take the air out of the ball, which means keep the clock running through their rushing attack and keep Burrow away from the ball. I see the Bengals being able to sustain some drives and move the ball, but there should not be enough scoring to cover this high of a total.

Best Bet: Ravens -5.5
Lean: Under 52.5 -110
Ravens 27 Bengals 20

1. (BAL) Dionte Johnson +445

Last week I wrote in covering the Broncos-Ravens matchup about the importance of the Dionte Johnson trade and how he could eventually become the Ravens WR1. This did not look all that close to happening last week, as he only ran 6 total routes and did not get 1 target. I anticipate more action in terms of routes this week, but given that this is a short week and without too much practice we should not see that big of a difference in his projected workload. As mentioned last week, he ranks 5th in the NFL in red zone targets. With Flowers dominating the neutral area of the field, I think we could see Johnson develop into a red zone threat for this team, and that is where I would once again take my chance this week.

2. (BAL) Mark Andrews +175

Likely will be out in this one and this is a great spot facing the Bengals who have been on eof the worst defenses in the league at defending TE's. 

3. (BAL) Derrick Henry -250

He has had a TD in every damn game this year.