November 15th NBA Game Guides

Austin Reaves

has developed into an elite role player this season: he is averaging 18.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. Today D’Angelo Russell, Lebron James, and Anthony Davis will all be playing and that should naturally lessen Reaves’ opportunities. I will back him to go under 5.5 assists. The Spurs are a tough matchup for this because they are allowing the 3^rd fewest assists overall and to point guards. 59% of Reaves’ assists also come at the rim and opponents struggle to score at the rim vs the Spurs because of Wemby. I just don’t think he exceeds this line. 

Suggested Picks:
Under 5.5 Assists (-130)

Cam Reddish

Cam Reddish is finally getting his opportunity for the Lakers: he has had 23+ minutes in four straight games and over that stretch he has hit a three in every game, even though he is averaging only 1.7 three-point attempts per game. He is 5/7 from three over that stretch and I feel he is due for some negative regression. Not to mention almost all of his threes are catch and shoot, and in the corner. But he may not get shots against the Spurs considering they rank bottom 8 in both corner, and catch and shoot threes allowed per game this year.

Suggested Pick:
Under .5 Threes (+115)

Rui Hachimura 

Rui Hachimura has turned into a very stable role player for the Lakers this year: he has had 30+ minutes in every game this year and he is averaging 12.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. The Spurs have a couple of different players who I expect will all guard Hachimura at some time so it is hard to decide whose data we should go off of. I’m not seeing any value here. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Lebron James

Lebron James has been on an absolute tear of late: in the month of November he is averaging 26.8 points, 11.7 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game. These numbers are just truly dumbfounding. As a result, all of his lines are extremely inflated, so I struggle to decide if there is any value on the board. I will sprinkle him to get a triple double though just because of how good he has been and the Wemby matchup brings some extra hype. 

Suggested Picks:
Triple Double (+280)

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is off to a GREAT start this year: he ranks second in the NBA in points per game, average 30.2 per. I feel he could be in line for a big game tonight vs Wemby. Wemby is yet to face a very dominant center this year and I think Davis is going to be a wakeup call for him. Davis also faced Wemby twice last year and averaged more than a point per minute in those two games. Not to mention Wemby is allowing opponents to shoot 57% vs him from within the arc. Anthony Davis legacy game inbound. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 27.5 Points (-110)
35+ Points (+600)

Chris Paul

In my opinion, Chris Paul is just a perfect fit for this Spurs team. They needed some veteran presence and a solid point guard, and Paul is more than qualified to check both of those boxes. So far this year he is averaging 10.3 points and 8.6 assists per game. His given assist line today is set at 8.5 and he is over this in 8/12 this year. Over his L5 games he is also averaging 16.6 potential assists per game. The Spurs are also way more healthy now than they were in the beginning of the season and this gives Paul more weapons for him to distribute. Not to mention the Lakers are allowing the 3^rd most assists per game this year.

Suggested Pick:
Over 8.5 Assists (-120)

Stephon Castle

The rookie from UConn has meshed quite well so far with the Spurs and he is starting to get more involved. He has had 20+ minutes played in six straight and 10+ points in four straight. Cam Reddish is also projected to guard him, and he is allowing an opponent three-point frequency of 31%, which is very low. And considering Castle has gotten a lot of his points from three, I’m not inclined to take him to exceed over 10.5 points, or under. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes is another person who bring some veteran presence to this younger team. He has had 24+ minutes in every game but one this year and his advanced metrics have been quite solid. I’m most interested in his assists though, his line sits at 1.5 for today and I feel he can exceed this number. He has hit this in 6/7 games this month and more than 60% of his threes come from threes. This should serve him well because the Lakers are allowing the 10^th most catch and shoot threes per game this year. Not to mention they are allowing the 3^rd most assists per game overall.

Suggeted Pick 
Over 1.5 Assist 

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama has been on a tear of late, over his L3 games he is averaging 36 points, 12 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. He is also shooting 59% from the field and 54% from three. I hate to fade someone who is so good, but the spot seems just too good. His current point line sits at 25.5 and he is under this in 9/12 games this year. Not to mention Anthony Davis should be good to go tonight and that should make Wemby’s night even tougher. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 25.5 Points (-130)

With Lebron and Anthony Davis healthy the Lakers have a decent chance to beat any team in the NBA. Not to mention their role players have been just so good this year, it’s hard to doubt their unity. I really do think Anthony Davis will dominate this game offensively and defensively, which should lead to a Laker win. 

Best Bet: Lakers -2.5 (-110)

Jamal Murray

Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon are both out tonight, but Murray’s lines are just getting too high given the tough matchup at hand. Over the last three years Murray is averaging 20.4 points per game with Jokic, and without Jokic over that time period he is averaging 21.9 points per game. So, he hasn’t even seen a huge jump in production without him. The Pelicans also pose an interesting matchup because they are allowing the most restricted area points in the paint and Murray is averaging only 2.0 field goal attempts per game in this area. But Murray is a pull-up shooter: he is averaging more than 11.0 pull-up field goal attempts per game this year and that may not serve him well in this matchup considering the Pelicans are allowing the 2^nd fewest pull-up field goals per game. Not to mention Brandon Boston Jr. will most likely be guarding him and opponents are shooting only 45% vs him this year, which is a pretty low number.

Suggested Pick:
Under 22.5 Points (-110)

Christian Braun

Christian Braun has developed into quite the player for the Nuggets this year: he is averaging 16.3 points per game and 35.3 minutes per game. I feel his given point line of 14.5 points is just disrespectful. He has logged only 30 minutes three times without Jokic in his career and in those games he has put up 17,15, and 19 points. This matchup vs the Pelicans is also superb for him because their defensive composition plays into his strengths. The Pelicans are allowing the most restricted area points in the paint and Braun is averaging 5.5 field goal attempts per game from that area, second to only Jokic on the Nuggets. The Pelicans are also allowing the 9^th most catch and shoot field goals and Braun ranks second on the team in that metric as well. Not to mention Brandon Ingram is guarding him and he is allowing an opponent two-point frequency of 63%, which is very high, and this means Braun should be able to get to the paint. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 14.5 Points (+100)
20+ Points (+340)
25+ Points (+1050)

Michael Porter Jr.

I’ll keep it short and simple here since I had lengthier write ups above. I honestly do not know what the play is for Porter Jr. tonight. His lines are a bit inflated, but he is a streaky shooter, so it is hard to take his under. I’ll stay away. 

Russell Westbrook

With how many assists Jokic has been getting lately, someone is going to have to make up for his absence in the assist column. I feel it can be Westbrook. Since Murray’s return, Westbrook is averaging 12.0 potential assists per game and Murray is averaging only 8.0. Tonight, without Jokic and Gordon, Westbrook should see a slight bump in minutes, and I expect him to rack up the assists considering the Pelicans are allowing the 3^rd most assists per game. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 5.5 Assists (-142)

Brandon Boston Jr.

So many people are injured on the Pelicans and that has given Brandon Boston Jr. a massive opportunity. He has played 30+ minutes in six straight games and tonight should be the seventh straight. Over the L2 games he is averaging 13.0 potential assists per game, and I feel his given assist line of 4.5 tonight seems a bit off. Not to mention the Nuggets are allowing the most assists per game. 

Suggested Pick:
Over 4.5 Assists (+110)

Brandon Ingram

Brandon Ingram has started the season off very well so far: he is averaging 22.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. Brandon Ingram is also a mid-range merchant; he is averaging 6.2 mid-range field goal attempts per game. The Nuggets pose a poor matchup for him though because they are allowing the 4^th fewest mid-range field goals per game. There is just too much going on in this Pelicans offense for me to back a prop of his tonight. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Yves Missi

Yves Missi is a rookie from Baylor and with all these injuries that have plagued the Pelicans, he has gotten some quality minutes. Tonight, he is projected 31 minutes and he has had 10+ rebounds in 3/4 games where he has played at least 25 minutes this year. Jokic is also out and the Nuggets don’t really have a backup center. It looks like they’ll have some power forwards matched up against Missi. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 7.5 Rebounds (+105)
10+ Rebounds (+300)

Last year the Nuggets were without Jokic for only three games, and they won two of them, the one loss came to the Thunder on the road. Murray is back and still feel very confident in this team. Not to mention the Pelicans are missing six of their seven best players. 

Best Bet: Nuggets -2.5 (-110)