Lakers Team Overview
Austin Reaves
Today I will be targeting Austin Reaves’s assists. His given line today is set at 5.5 and I feel he can exceed it. He is already over this in 7/12 this year and over the L5 games he is averaging 11.4 potential assists per game. 58% of his assists have also come at the rim, which should work out well for him in this matchup considering the Pelicans are allowing the 2nd most points at the rim this year. Not to mention the Pelicans are allowing the 5th most overall assists. Look for Reaves to distribute.
Suggested Pick:
Over 5.5 Assists (+120)
Cam Reddish
Last night we took Cam Reddish to not make a three at +105, and it worked out for us because he never even scored. He also logged his second lowest minutes in the month of November last night, mainly due to Dalton Khenct getting some more action. Reddish will most likely continue to lose minutes to him as the season progresses.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
Rui Hachimura
Rui Hachimura has been solid for the Lakers, but he missed last night due to an ankle injury, so it is tough to tell how he will play tonight. He has also been very inconsistent scoring 9 points or less in 4/L5 games. The Pelicans pose a solid matchup for him though because they allow a lot of points from within 10 feet, and that is where Hachimura does best. A clear read is just not evident though.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
Lebron James
Lebron Lebron Lebron. This man has had a triple double in four straight games, and I think he looks to make it five tonight. Over the L5 games he is averaging 20.6 potential assists and 14.8 rebound chances per game. The Pelicans are allowing the 5th most assists per game. Anthony Davis also has not been rebounding as good and that allows Lebron to capitalize on rebound chances.
Suggested Pick:
Triple Double (+310)
Anthony Davis
We laddered Anthony Davis to get 40+ points last night at +600, and he finished with exactly 40. I am looking to run it back. He has had 35+ points in 5/11 games and he is averaging 31.2 per. The Pelicans also pose a good matchup for him because they are allowing the 5th most points within 10 feet of the basket, this works in Davis’ favor because he is averaging 14.1 field goal attempts per game from within that area. The value is speaking to me yet again.
Suggested Pick:
35+ Points (+250)
40+ Points (+700)
Pelicans Team Overview
Brandon Ingram
The Pelicans have just been plagued with injuries this season, but Brandon Ingram has seemed to avoid that. The Pelicans picked up a big win last night and they are going to attempt to build on it. In that game Ingram had 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. He is having to step up in this offense and he has somewhat done it well. Over the last three games he is also averaging 11.3 potential assists, but his line of 7.5 is just too high for me to take the over, but too low for me to take the under. The Lakers are dealing with some injuries so it is too tough to tell who will guard Ingram tonight. I’m staying away.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
Yves Missi
We laddered Yves Missi’s rebounds last night and he cashed us out. Tonight, we will be doing the same exact thing. Yves Missi has had 10+ rebounds in three straight games, yet they still want to set his line at 7.5 for plus money. Not to mention the Lakers are allowing the 3rd most rebounds to opposing centers. The value is undeniable.
Game Prediction
Both teams are coming off back-to-backs, but the Lakers have won 7/L8 back-to-back games and over that stretch they are averaging a whopping 130.8 points per game. They seemingly have been immune to back-to-backs. Since Zion Williamson’s injury the Pelicans have very much struggled immensely on offense: they are averaging only 95.5 points per game. With a thin roster, I don’t see how the Pelicans keep up in this game at all.
Best Bet: Lakers -6.5 (-115)
Lotto: Lakers -14.5 (+265)