Mavericks Team Overview
Luka Doncic
Luka Doncic is averaging 28.5 points per game this year which makes me feel his line for 31.5 points tonight is a little inflated. He is under this line in 8/11 games, and I feel he will be under it yet again tonight. Lauri Markkanen will most likely guard him, with the absence of Taylor Hendricks. Luka is dealing with a hamstring injury and last game he settled from deep a lot. He has to be consistent and I think that will be hard for a guy who has shot a combined 15/53 from deep 28.3% in 5 career games @UTA.
Suggested Pick:
Under 31.5 Points (-135)
Kyrie Irving
Kyrie Irving is coming into this game, and he is averaging 25.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. He is also shooting 54.5% from the field and 54.1% from three. These numbers are quite high, which inclines me to take his under points because I feel some negative regression is coming for him. But the Jazz are allowing the 2nd most points to shooting guards which makes me hesitant. Not to mention he is dealing with a minor injury, so we don’t really know what to expect.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson comes into this game as a major contributor for the Mavericks. He is averaging 8.5 three-point attempts per game and nearly 80% of those attempts are catch and shoot. That should serve him well tonight vs the Jazz considering they are allowing the 2nd most catch and shoot threes. Klay has had some big games and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a big one here.
Suggested Pick:
4+ Threes (+110)
6+ Threes (+500)
Naji Marshall
Naji Marshall is a newly acquired Dallas Maverick and he has been solid this year: he is averaging 7.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. Almost the entirety of his shot volume comes from either the corner or within 10 feet of the basket. The Jazz rank about league average in field goals allowed in each of those spots so it hard to draw a conclusion as to how he will perform.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
Dereck Lively
Lively has dealt with a minor injury this year, but he should be 100% ready to go for tonight. On the season he is averaging 8.8 rebounds per 24 minutes, so I like the value of over 8.5 rebounds at +110. He has already hit this line 4/7 this year and today he draws a great matchup. The Jazz are allowing the 3rd most rebounds per game to centers and with Walker Kessler being injured, I don’t know how they will contain the Mavericks on the glass.
Suggested Pick:
Over 8.5 Rebounds (+110)
Jazz Team Overview
Keyonte George
Keyonte George is in his 2nd season as a Utah Jazz, and he is averaging 14.9 points and 6.1 assists per game. Today though I will be targeting him to go under his given point line of 14.5. He is already under this in 5/9 this year and I like that to happen again. The Mavericks are allowing the 3rd fewest points to opposing point guards this year.
Suggested Pick:
Under 14.5 Points (-110)
Collin Sexton
Collin Sexton is another guard for the Jazz, and he has seen a downtick in production so far this year: he is averaging only 15.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. These numbers all rank below his season averages from a year ago. I will say though the Mavericks pose a good matchup for opposing shooting guards, but I am just too hesitant to back Sexton.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
Lauri Markkanen
Lauri Markkanen dealt with a small injury in the first week of November this year and his minutes have still been somewhat stagnant. His given point line for tonight is 20.5 and he is already under this in 6/7 this year, I just don’t think he will have a great game tonight. Not to mention Sexton, George, and Clarkson are all finally healthy and they should take away some volume from Markkanen.
Suggested Pick:
Under 20.5 Points (-105)
John Collins
John Collins is still a somewhat new Utah Jazz member and with Kessler being ruled, Collins is going to fill in at center. He has filled in quite well for him though: he has had 10+ rebounds in 8/L10 without him and tonight he gets an ideal matchup vs the Mavericks. They are allowing the 5th most rebounds to opposing centers and the 3rd most overall. Collins has had some big rebounding games and I’ll play the ladder here.
Suggested Picks:
10+ Rebounds (-120)
12+ Rebounds (+210)
Game Prediction
The Jazz’s defense has not been good: they’ve allowed 120+ points in 4/L5 games and without Walker Kessler, their highest defensive BPM player, they should struggle even more. Not to mention they allow a lot of threes and the Mavericks have players who will shoot a ton of threes.
Best Bet: Mavericks Over 119.5 Points (-110)