November 13th NBA Game Guides

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday comes into this game averaging 12.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. His lines for today are all around his season averages, which makes it tough. Dennis Schroder will be guarding him today and he is allowing an opponent two-point frequency of 59%, which is about average, so it is hard to draw any conclusions. I thought about targeting Holiday’s assists, but more than half of his assists come from threes and the Nets are allowing the 8^th fewest catch and shoot threes. I’ll hold off for now. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Derrick White

Derrick White absolutely cashed us out yesterday because we laddered him to get 6+ threes, and he hit it. But today I’m looking to go the complete opposite way. As stated above, the Nets are allowing the 8^th fewest catch and shoot threes and that is not good for White because he leads the team in that metric and that is where most of his volume comes from. Cameron Thomas is also projected to guard him, and he is allowing an opponent three-point frequency of 37%, and opponents are only hitting 35% of those shots against him. So, this is a tough head-to-head matchup for White. Not to mention the Celtics are coming off back-to-back and White averaged only 2.9 threes per game off back to backs last season. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 3.5 Threes (-145)

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown dealt with an injury in the first week of November, but he seems to be back and fully healthy considering he has logged 35+ minutes in two straight games. So far this year Jaylen Brown is averaging 25.6 points per game, so I feel that this 23.5 line is a bit underwhelming. He has also exceeded that line in 6/8 so far. Not to mention the Nets pose a good matchup for Brown because they are allowing the 7^th most points within 10 feet, and considering Brown is averaging 10.9 field goal attempts per game within that area, he should look to attack there yet again.

Suggested Pick:
Over 23.5 Points (-115)

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum struggled last night in the loss vs the Hawks: he went 5 of 16 from the field and 2 of 9 from three. I feel like he is due for some positive regression and a bounce back game, but the matchup is kind of tough. The Nets are allowing the 2^nd fewest pull up field goals made per game and Tatum averages more than 17 pull up field goal attempts per game, so if they can properly limit him, he might be in for a tough night. Not to mention Dorian Finney-Smith will be guarding him and he is allowing a 72% opponent two-point frequency. He should disallow Tatum from chucking up a ton of threes. I want to take the under 26.5 points, but he might be due for a bounce back following last night’s outing. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Neemias Queta

With Porzingis out of the lineup Neemias Queta has stepped into a bigger role this year, specifically in the month of November because he is averaging 22.7 minutes per game. Today I will be targeting his assists, too niche? He is under his given line of 1.5 in 6/7 games so far in the month of November, and on the season, he is averaging only .7 assists per 24 minutes. Not to mention a large majority of his assists come from threes and the Nets are allowing the 7^th fewest catch and shoot threes. Maybe look to parlay this with Jaylen Brown to record 18 or more points. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 1.5 Assists (-190)

Dennis Schroder

Dennis Schroder has been very good for the Nets so far this year: he is averaging 19.5 points and 6.2 assists per game. The Nets also just recently played the Celtics and in that game Schroder had 23 field goal attempts and 12 potential assists. I want to think he will have a good game tonight but with Simmons going in and out of the lineup I am just unsure. I don’t see a clear read, so I’ll hold off for now. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Cam Thomas

I have two plays for Cam Thomas today that I really like. First, I like him to go over his set point line of 23.5 points. The Celtics defensive composition plays in this prop because they are allowing the 4^th most pull up field goals allowed per game, this works out well for Thomas because he is averaging 13.7 pull up field goal attempts per game, which by far leads the team. He has also had 25+ in 3/L4 vs the Celtics and 30+ in 4/8 with Ben Simmons this year. Not to mention Jrue Holiday will guard him and yes he is one of the leagues best defenders but he has allowed opponents to shoot 57% from two this year. As for assists, his line sits at 2.5. He is under this in 6/8 with Ben Simmons and he is also converting potential assists at 74% over his L5 games, which is very unsustainable. Not to mention out of Schroeder, Simmons, and Thomas, Thomas has the highest percentage of his assists come from threes, 48% to be exact. Considering the Celtics are allowing the fewest catch and shoot threes, I think he will not get any assists. Lock these in!

Suggested Picks:
Over 23.5 Points (-115)
30+ Points (+280)
Under 2.5 Assists (+110)

Cameron Johnson

Following the departure of Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson has been very efficient: he is averaging 17.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game so far this year. He has also made 3+ threes in 8/L9; ironically, I will be taking him to NOT get 3+ threes today. The Celtics are allowing the fewest catch and shoot threes per game this year and Johnson leads the team in catch and shoot threes, nearly 80% of his three-point attempts are catch and shoot. Moreover, Johnson is shooting 50% from three over his L4 games and I am expecting major negative regression considering he is typically a 38% three-point shooter. Sneaky spot here.

Suggested Pick:
Under 2.5 Threes (+120)

Nic Claxton

Nix Claxton has seen somewhat of a downtick in production this year and he has been coming off the bench. He is averaging only 9.2 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. The Celtics pose a tough matchup for him because they are allowing the 2^nd fewest points to opposing centers this year. The Nets also recently faced the Celtics and Claxton had only two points. Not to mention the Celtics have had games where they go small and that could cause Claxton to lose minutes. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 10.5 Points (-120)

The Celtics had a brutal game last night and lost outright as 16-point favorites at home. So, they are coming off an emotional loss and a back-to-back, which may not serve them well. Not to mention these teams played in early November and the Nets played well and forced overtime. The Nets were also in the lead for most of that game. I feel this will be a close game that the Celtics win. 

Best Bet: Nets +10.5 -140
Lean: Under 217.5 -110

James Harden

James Harden has started the year phenomenally: he is averaging 20.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. Today though I will be targeting his assist line which sits at 8.5. He is under this line in 5/6 games in the month of November and over that stretch he is averaging only 10.8 potential assists. Today the Clippers also draw the Rockets and they are allowing the fewest overall assists per game this year. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 8.5 Assists (-110)

Normal Powell

Normal Powell has been the most shocking playing this year in my opinion: he is averaging 26.0 points per game. He is also averaging 16.9 field goal attempts per game, and he is shooting better than 50% from three. Today his point line sits at 21.5, which is pretty low. But the matchup is just brutal, so I guess it makes sense. Jalen Green is also projected to guard him today and he allows balanced opponent shooting frequencies. I can’t find a good angle here. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Derrick Jones Jr. 

Derrick Jones Jr. has had a solid start to the season this year and he has been impactful for the Clippers. I will be targeting his rebounds today. His current line is set at 2.5 and considering he is averaging 3.5 rebounds per game and is over this in 8/11 so far this year, I feel he can exceed this line yet again. Not to mention the Rockets are allowing the 6^thmost rebounds per game to opposing PFs and Sengun should limit Zubac on the boards, which should leave opportunities to other players. I’ll sprinkle the ladder as well. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 2.5 Rebounds (-155)
5+ Rebounds (+360)

Ivica Zubac

Ivica Zubac has been quite the asset for the Clippers this year: he is averaging 16.9 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 1.9 steals/blocks per game. Today his point line is set at 14.5 and I feel that is too low. He is over this line in 7/11 games so far and he has had 20+ points in 5/11. Not to mention the Rockets are allowing the 4^th most points to opposing centers this year. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 14.5 Points (-130)
20+ Points (+265)

Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet is coming off a minor injury and it seems he will be good to go tonight. So far this year he has been underwhelming: he is averaging only 13.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game. He is under his given point line of 14.5 in 6/10 so far and I feel he can go under this line once again. Today James Harden will most likely guard him, and he is allowing opponents to shoot 34% from three, which is pretty good in terms of defense. And considering VanVleet shoots a lot of threes, I don’t think he will have much success vs Harden tonight. Not to mention James Harden ranked in the 89^th percentile for isolation defense last season. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 14.5 Points (-115)

Jalen Green

Jalen Green was expected to make a big jump this season and so far his stats have not been overwhelming: he is averaging 20.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game this year. Normal Powell is also expected to guard him, and he is allowing an opponent three-point frequency of 42% and opponents are hitting 37% of those shots. This inclines me to take Green over threes, but I just can’t commit to it because of his drop-off in volume from the month of October to November. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr. has been very inconsistent this year, but if we can target him with the proper matchup, I feel he can have a big game. He has had 8 points or less, or 14 points or more in 9/11 games this year and that should just emphasize his inconsistency. He also exceeded his given point line of 10.5 in 6/11 games so far this year. The Clippers pose a tough matchup for a lot of Rockets’ players, but not for Jabari. The Clippers are allowing the 6^th most pull up field goals per game and Jabari should look to attack considering he averages the most individual pull up two-point and three-point field goal attempts per game on the team. On top of that, Derrick Jones Jr. is projected to guard him and he is allowing opponents to shoot 55% from two. Not to mention Jabari has shot poorly of late and I’m expecting some major positive regression. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 10.5 Points (-120)
15+ Points (+265)
18+ Points (+600)

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun’s scoring is down a little bit from last year: last season he averaged 21.1 points per game and so far, this year he is averaging only 17.8 points per game. I’m going to back that trend and take him to not exceed 19.5 points. So far this year he is already under this line in 7/11 games, and with VanVleet back he should take a lesser role. Not to mention the Clippers are a tough matchup because they are allowing the 2^nd fewest points within 10 feet of the basket. This is not good for Sengun because he is averaging 11.6 field goal attempts in this range. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 19.5 Points (-110)

Coming into this game I don’t think the Clippers have enough fire power to stay with the Rockets. I feel the Rockets though are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA and they have a great starting 5. At home I expect them to win by 4+. 

Best Bet: Rockets -3.5 -115
Lean: Over 211.5 -140