November 12th NBA Game Guides

Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels is the newly acquired starting shooting guard with the Hawks and he has logged 36+ minutes in three straight games. With Trae Young out, he should take on an even bigger role. He is averaging 5.1 rebounds per 36 minutes this year and that is the prop I will be targeting. As stated priorly, the Hawks allow a ton of three-point attempts and the Celtics shoot a ton of threes. This leads to further rebounds that will kick out to the guards, such as Daniels. This is +135 and I like the implied value.

Suggested Picks
Over 5.5 Rebounds (+135)

Zaccharie Risacher

The former #1 overall pick has seemed to find a bit of groove with the Hawks because he is averaging 12.1 points per game. Trae Young is also out tonight, and I don’t think Risacher will necessarily reap the benefits of that. Over the L5 games he is averaging 2.6 potential assists per game and on the season, he is under this given assist line of 2.5 in 9/11 games. These trends are completely unreliable with Trae Young out now, but they’re still noteworthy in my opinion. Not to mention 55% of his assists this year have come off of threes, and considering the Celtics are allowing the fewest catch and shoot threes per game, Risacher’s teammates may struggle to convert. At +125 I’ll take an overreaction line due to an injury. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 2.5 Assists (+125)

Jalen Johnson

With Trae Young out Jalen Johnson should in theory have a massive game, but last year he averaged 15.6 points per game with him, but only 16.9 without him. So, he only saw a small bump in production without him. He was under this given line of 23.5 in 14/18 games last year. The Celtics should have a good game plan to shut him down because he is by far the most dangerous player on the Hawks tonight. Not to mention Tatum will most likely guard him and he allows a low opponent 2P frequency, so he should limit Johnson from getting to the paint where he does most of his damage. 

Suggested Picks:
Under 23.5 Points (-115)

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday has not had as big of a scoring role this year in comparison to last year, but that does not mean can’t produce elsewhere. I will be targeting his rebounds. In the month of November, he is averaging 4.3 per game, but I feel this is a good opportunity to get even more. The Hawks are allowing the 8^th most overall rebounds and the 5^th most rebounds to guards this year. Jrue Holiday also had 6+ rebounds in 4/4 In-Season Tournament games last year. With Porzingis still being out, people must step up each night on the glass.

Suggested Pick:
Over 4.5 Rebounds (-110)

Derrick White

Derrick White is one of those guys who is not super flashy, but he is very impactful to this Celtics team. So far this year he is averaging 18.8 points and 8.9 three-point attempts per game. With Porzingis out, everyone continues to see a bump in production. Today the Celtics also draw the Hawks, and they are allowing the 2^nd most catch and shoot threes per game this year. White leads the Celtics in catch and shoot threes, so I expect him to get plenty of opportunities. In his most recent matchup vs the Hawks he also had 21 points and 4 threes. Expect him to get volume today. 

Suggested Pick:
Over 3.5 Threes (-105)
6+ Threes (+480)

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown dealt with a minor injury last week but on Sunday he made his return back to the lineup and logged 37 minutes. The Hawks pose a great matchup for everyone on the Celtics, besides Jaylen Brown. He is averaging 11.1 field goal attempts from within 10 feet this year and considering the Hawks are allowing the 4^th fewest points within that range, I feel he will struggle to score. Zaccharie Risacher is also projected to guard him, and he is allowing a 47% opponent 2P frequency, so he forces opponents into shooting threes and is not driven on much. Not to mention he is under this given line in 5/7 games this year. 

Suggested Pick:
Under 25.5 Points (-110)

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is by far the primary ball handler and playmaker for the Celtics. I think he will exemplify that tonight, especially through his passing. The Hawks are allowing the 8^th most overall assists per game, and as stated above, the 2^nd most catch and shoot threes per game. This is relevant because more than half of Tatum’s assists come from threes. Tatum is also only converting potential assists at 36% over his L5, which is below his normal conversion rate. I’m expecting some positive regression with a superb matchup. Not to mention he has exceeded his given line of 5.5 in 6/L8 vs the Hawks.

Suggested Picks:
Over 5.5 Assists (-135)
8+ Assists (+290)

Al Horford 

Al Horford has been dealing with a minor injury to his left big toe, but he will still most likely play in this game. Clint Capela is projected to guard him tonight and he is allowing an opponent 3P frequency of 32%, which is very high for a center. That inclines me to take Al Horford over threes, but he just hasn't been getting as much volume without Porzingis this year as he did last year. 

Suggested Pick:
Pass

The Hawks are off to a slow start this year and without Trae Young I see no possible way they keep up with the Celtics. The Celtics shoot a ton of threes, and the Hawks are one of the worst three-point defending teams. They should have no issue scoring here and limiting the Hawks without Trae Young.

Best Bet: Celtics -14.5 (-110)
Lean: Over 223.5 (-120)

Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson has been good for the Knicks and I think he has another good performance tonight in the opening night of the NBA Cup. It’s tough to go off of stats because Embiid is back and Maxey is out, but it seems like Kyle Lowry will guard him. Kyle Lowry is allowing an opponent 2P frequency of 63%, which is high for guards. I expect Brunson to be able to blow by him and get to his spots. Brunson has also hit this in 2 straight vs Embiid and in 3/5 in the month of November so far. Expect a big night from him. 

Suggested Pick: 
Over 25.5 Points (-115)

Mikal Bridges 

This newly acquired Knick has been solid this year: he is averaging 15.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. Over his L5 games he is also averaging 6 potential assists, which ranks 3rd on the team. On top of that he is averaging 38.3 minutes over that stretch, which leads the team. Not to mention the 76ers are allowing the 3^rd most assists to opposing SGs this year. Mikal has been distributing lately and I feel he hits this.

Suggested Pick:
Over 3.5 assists (+110)

Josh Hart

Josh Hart’s late season production last year has carried into this year somewhat. So far he is averaging 13.8 points and 9.1 rebounds per game; he has also had 10+ points in every game this year. The 76ers have also allowed the 8^th most points within 10 feet this year and that is where a majority of Hart’s field goal attempts come from. I know Embiid is back, but it might take some time for him to get back in the swing of things defensively. Overall, Hart should continue to get volume in the paint. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 11.5 Points (-110)
15+ Points (+190)

OG Anunoby

OG Anunoby started the season off slow, but he has picked it up in a big way. In the month of October, he averaged only 11.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. But in the month of November so far he is averaging 19.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. Caleb Martin is also projected to guard him, and he is allowing 12.7 field-goal attempts per game, which is kind of a lot. I want to take his over, but the line is just too tricky.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Karl-Anthony Towns

Karl-Anthony Towns has been great so far as a new New York Knick. He has had 30+ points in three straight games and I think he can make it four straight tonight. Embiid is making his return and I think he won’t be ready for Towns. Embiid ranked in the 17^th percentile for isolation defense last year and allowed an opponent 2P frequency of 79%, so he allowed opponents to get to their spots. The value is just too good here because we don’t know what to expect from Embiid. 

Suggested Picks:
30+ Points (+310)

Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry should have a higher workload tonight because Tyrese Maxey is out. Lowry has had 4+ assists in four straight games but in the month of November he is averaging only 4.8 field-goal attempts per game, so he has prioritized distributing. Brunson is also projected to guard him, and he has an allowed 3P frequency of 43%, which is a somewhat low number. 82% of Lowry’s field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc and because of that I don’t think he has a big scoring night. But with Embiid back, a good read is unclear. 

Suggested Pick: 
Pass

Paul George

Paul George is set to make his 5^th start as a 76er and I feel he could be in line for a big game. So far, he has struggled shooting the ball: he is averaging 6.3 three-point attempts per game, yet he is shooting only 16%. With Maxey out I think the Knicks are going to drop a second defender on Embiid when he gets the ball and that should lead to kick out opportunities for wing players such as George. I am also expecting some major positive regression considering he is truly about a 35-40% three-point shooter. Not to mention OG Anunoby will most likely shadow him and he is allowing a whopping 48% opponent three-point frequency, which is very high. 

Suggested Picks:
Over 2.5 Threes (+115)

Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid is back! He is making his first start, and this is undoubtedly a huge game for the 76ers. They have struggled early and now they draw the Knicks for their first game of the NBA Cup. I am going to come out and say that I don’t think Karl-Anthony Towns is a good enough defender to guard Embiid all night. So, with Maxey out I think the Knicks will be constantly dropping double teams when he gets the ball within the arc. And if they don’t drop a second defender, Embiid should have a huge scoring night. He needs to come out and make a statement just because of all the criticism he has been faced with recently. I feel he either scores a lot or distributes a lot. 

Suggested Pick:
35+ Points (+500)
8+ Assists (+900)

 Both teams have kind of struggled to start the year, but I still feel strong that the Knicks win this game. There is just too much uncertainty for the 76ers: Maxey is out, there were moving parts over the offseason, and I just don’t know how Embiid will come out. The Knicks are almost fully healthy, and I think they dominate this game. 

Best Bet Knicks -2.5 (-115)
Lean Over 212.5 (-110)
ALT Pick Knicks -12.5 (+350)