Cavs Team Overview
PG Darius Garland
Darius Garland has had a profound effect on the Cavaliers hot start. He is averaging 20.5 points and 6.7 assists per game. Over the L5 games he is also averaging 12.6 potential assists per game. On top of that, he has exceeded his given assist line of 6.5 in 3/L5. He has also had 6+ assists in 8/11 so far this year. The Cavaliers draw the Bulls, and they are allowing both the most assists to point guards and the most points within 10 feet. Considering 64% of Garland’s assists come at the rim, he should be able to convert a lot of assists tonight vs the Bulls.
Suggested Picks:
'O' 6.5 Assists (-130)
10+ Assists (+390)
SG Donovan Mitchell
While the Cavaliers have been killing it, Donovan Mitchell necessarily has not been as good as anticipated. He is averaging 22.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. These individual averages are all below his averages from last year. The Bulls are a very interesting matchup for him, and Coby White is projected to guard him. Coby White is allowing an opponent 3P frequency of 34.5%. This means he does not allow many threes to opponents. Mitchell may not get many threes, but overall, are clear read is not evident.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
SG Sam Merrill
Sam Merrill is the primary catch and shoot 3P shooter on the Cavaliers and it seems he will squeak into the starting lineup tonight. In the month of November, he is shooting 47% from three and that is a very unsustainable number considering he shot only 30% in the month of October. It seems he is due for some negative regression. The Bulls are also allowing the 4th fewest catch and shoot threes. Not to mention Zach Lavine is supposed to guard him and he allows a low opponent 3P frequency. Merrill is under this given point line in 6/11 this year, and he should go under this line again.
Suggested Pick:
'U' 6.5 Points (-110)
PF Evan Mobley
Evan Mobley has developed into a major asset for the Cavaliers and his performances have been very good. This year he is averaging 18.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. He also leads this team in field goal attempts within 10 feet of the basket with nearly 11 per game. As mentioned above, the Bulls are allowing the most points within 10 feet of the basket and that is evidently where Mobley thrives. Patrick Williams is also supposed to guard him, and he allows a 67% opponent 2P frequency. Not to mention Mobley is over this in 6/11 games and he has had 23+ points in 4/11 games. Overall, he should have a good offensive outing tonight.
Suggested Picks:
'O' 16.5 Points (-135)
25+ Points (+480)
C Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen is another guy who has immensely contributed to the amazing Cavaliers’ start. He is the anchor down low, and he is averaging 11.9 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game. He should have another big defensive game considering the Bulls are allowing the 4th most rebounds and the 7th most blocks per game. Not to mention he has exceeded his given rebound line of 10.5 in 8/11 games so far this year. He is also coming off a lowly 3 rebound performance and this seems like a bounce back with an ideal matchup.
Suggested Picks:
'O' 10.5 Rebounds (-130)
15+ Rebounds (+370)
Thunder Team Overview
PG Josh Giddey
The newly acquired Chicago Bull, Josh Giddey, has been pretty good so far for the Bulls. He is averaging 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game. Over his L5 games though he is converting potential assists at 70%, which is very unsustainable considering a lot of his assists come from made threes. The Cavaliers are also allowing the 5th fewest assists per game this year. He has had some big assist games recently, mainly because Lavine has been out of the lineup, and with him back in the lineup Giddey should be less involved.
Suggested Pick:
'U' 5.5 Assists (+100)
SG Coby White
Coby White finished the back half of the year extremely strong and that has carried into this year somewhat. So far, he is averaging 19.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. He is also averaging more than 9 three-point attempts per game. With Zach Lavine back in the lineup though, his usage should decrease a little bit. Donovan Mitchell will probably guard him, and he is allowing an opponent 3P frequency of 45%. But with Zach Lavine back in the lineup, a good pick for Coby White is unclear.
Suggested Pick:
Pass
Zach Lavine
Zach Lavine is coming off a minor injury, but in his first game back he logged 31 minutes. So, he should be good for roughly 35 tonight. The Cavaliers’ defense is not as good as it was last year, mainly because they’re playing faster. As a result, there is just more points to be scored by opponents. They are allowing the 2nd most mid-range makes and considering Lavine leads the team in both mid-range makes and field goal attempts, I feel he could be in line for a good game. Not to mention he has exceeded this line in 5/7 this year and he is averaging 22.0 points per game.
Suggested Pick:
'O' 19.5 Points (-110)
C Nikola Vucevic
Nikola Vucevic has had some big games for the Bulls this year and he is averaging about 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. He has also been a sniper from three and he has had 2+ threes in 4/L5 and in 7/10 so far this year. Jarrett Allen is projected to guard him, and he is allowing a 24% opponent 3P frequency, which is low in comparison to guards, but much higher in comparison to other centers. Not to mention he has had 4+ three-point attempts in 13/14 vs Jarrett Allen as a Chicago Bull. At +155, it seems we are getting tremendous value.
Suggested Pick:
2+ Threes (+155)
Game Prediction
The Bulls have had one of the worst defenses in the NBA this year and they’re allowing 120.3 points per game. On top of that, they have allowed 119+ in 5 straight games. Under Kenny Atkinson, the Cavaliers have had a great offense and they are playing much faster. As a result, they are averaging the most points per game in the NBA, 122.7. This current team total seems to not give complete credit to the Cavs offense.
Suggested Picks:
Best Bet: Cavaliers TT Over 122.5 (-105)
Lean: 'O' 237.5 Pts -120
Clippers Team Overview
PG James Harden
With the departure of Paul George and the injury of Kawhi Leonard, James Harden has stepped up in a big way so far this year. He is averaging 21.2 points, 9.0 assists, and 8.2 rebounds per game. What is most compelling is his rebounds, and the low line given. He has exceeded this line of 5.5 rebounds in 7/10 games so far and he has had 10+ rebounds in 4/10. The Thunder also pose a good matchup for this prop because they are allowing the 3rd most rebounds per game this year, and the most to opposing point guards. Not to mention they’re missing Chet who is without a doubt their best rebounder. Harden has had some big rebounding games this year and it seems he can have another big one tonight.
Suggested Pick:
'O' 5.5 Rebounds (-145)
10+ Rebounds (+500)
SG Norman Powell
James Harden is not the only person who has stepped up without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, so has Norman Powell. This year he is averaging 25.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. He is also averaging more than 4 made threes per game. The Thunder this year are also allowing the 2nd highest opponent 3P frequency and while Powell gets a lot of catch and shoot threes, we will be targeting his assists. Over the L5 games he is averaging 5.6 potential assists per game and on the season 55% of his assists come from made threes, catch, and shoot threes more specifically. He is also over this line in 5/L5. Not to mention Lu Dort is expected to guard him tonight and he is a 90th percentile defender, so I expect him to work the ball out of Powell’s hands.
Suggested Pick:
'O' 1.5 Assists (+105)
C Ivaca Zubac
Ivaca Zubac has been one of the best defensive centers in the league this year and his production has been very high. He is averaging 35.0 minutes, 16.1 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. With the absence of Chet, he should absolutely dominate, specifically in the rebounding game. The Thunder are supposed to start Jalen Williams at center, yes 6’5 210LB Jalen Williams. I just see no way how he limits Ivaca Zubac. Not to mention the Thunder are allowing the 3rd most overall rebounds this year. Zubac has been logging career high minutes and he should have a great game tonight.
Suggested Pick
'O' 12.5 Rebounds (-125)
15+ Rebounds (+170)
Thunder team Overview
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is undoubtedly one of the most impactful players in the NBA, but so far this year his numbers have not quite lived up to the expectations. He is averaging 26.0 points and 6.2 assists per game this year. Tonight, the Thunder also draw the Clippers and they pose a tough matchup for Shai. They are allowing the fewest points within 10 feet of the basket this year and considering Shai is averaging 11.6 FGAs from this area, he might struggle to score. More than half of Shai’s assists also come from threes and the Clippers are allowing the 7th fewest catch and shoot threes per game, as well as the 2nd fewest total assists per game. Not to mention James Harden will most likely guard him and his defensive isolation stats have been quite good this year. It’s worth noting that Chet is out, but that should mean Shai will receive even more defensive attention.
Suggested Pick:
'U' 35.5 Points + Assists (-105)
SG Lu Dort
With Chet being out for this game, Jalen Williams will drop to play center and that means someone is going to have to fill his PF role, and it should be Lu Dort. Lu Dort is averaging 4.3 rebounds per 30 minutes this year and that is exactly how many minutes he is projected to get in this game. Not to mention in games where he played at least 30 minutes last year he hit this line in 15/22, and averaged 4.9 per game. Lu Dort has performed well this year and I expect him to make the most of his bigger role tonight.
Suggested Pick:
4+ rebounds (-120)
SF Jalen Williams
It seems Jalen Williams is one of the most underrated players in the league and he is having yet again another good year. We will be targeting his assists though, and his line currently sits at 4.5. He is under this in 5/6 in the month of November and as stated above, the Clippers are allowing the fewest assists per game this year. Last game without Chet he also only had 7 potential assists. I expect him to have a lot of FGAs tonight and not get a lot of assists.
Suggested Picks:
'U' 4.5 assists (-115)
Game Prediction
Chet is missing his first NBA game in his career, and it should have a profound effect on the Thunder. Scoring should be hard to come by for the Thunder, and especially Shai. I recommend backing the Clippers with the points and the under. Sprinkle on Clippers ML as well
Best Bet: Clippers +6.5 (-105)
Lean: Under 218.5 (-110)