Giants Team Overview
QB Daniel Jones
Nobody is going to mistake Daniel Jones for a good quarterback anytime in the relative near future. He is 23-38-1 in 6 years as the Giants QB, and the majority of New York’s fan base was not happy when the franchise gave him a 4-year contract in 2023. Be that as it may, this is what they have to deal with for the next 3 years. Jones will face a Pittsburgh defense that runs the 10th highest rate of zone-coverage (73.3%) in the NFL, and this includes the most Cover 3 of any team in the league at 46.6% of its snaps. Mike Tomlin also throws in Cover 1-man at a 20.7% rate, leaving little room for anything else. Daniel Jones will see Cover 3 nearly half the time he is on the field, and against this coverage he’s completed 29 of 43 passes (67.4% CMP) for 256 yards. When you add in his numbers vs Cover 1-man they elevate to 44 of 62 for 415 yards and a completion rate of 71.0%. This looks pretty good on paper until you factor in his numbers when he’s under pressure, and he’s going to be under pressure tonight!! When the defense bearing down on Jones he has completed only 12 of 28 passes (42.9% CMP) for 104 yards, while taking 18 sacks. After looking at these numbers and considering how much the Steelers blitz, I almost wonder if he will make it out of the first quarter alive. Nick Herbig will be out for the Steelers, but Jones will still have to deal with edge-defenders T.J. Watt (18 pressures) and Alex Highsmith (11 pressures) who have both generated at least 5 of their pressures in under 2.5 seconds. This is not good news for a New York offensive-line that is vulnerable against speed rushers, and who is already without Andrew Thomas, plus Jermaine Eluemunor is banged up and will see limited snaps tonight. The NYG have the lowest point total this week for a reason.
Suggested Pick
Under 188.5 Passing Yards (-110)
T.J. Watt/Alex Highsmith Sack Parlay (+155)
RB Tyrone Tracy/Devin Singletary
The New York Giants backfield is officially in timeshare mode. Last week Tyrone Tracy had 9 touches, while Devin Singletary netted 6. As if either of these numbers aren’t bad enough, they will both have to face a Pittsburgh defense that allows the 3rd fewest rushing yards to opposing RB’s, a stingy 71.1 YPG. This immediately knocks Singletary off the board, but there is definitely value in Tyrone Tracy in the passing game. Daniel Jones is going to be pressured a lot in this game, and Tracy will be a safety valve for him in this game. Pittsburgh allows the 5th most receiving yards (45.7/gm) to opposing RB’s in the league, and they’ve done this playing one less game than the remaining 9 teams that rank in the top 10. As of now, there are no player props available for Tyrone Tracy on FanDuel, but over at Draft King’s you can get his total receptions line, which is currently sitting at a ridiculously low 1.5. Tracy has had 9 targets out of the backfield in the L2 weeks, and even with Singletary returning last Sunday, he still caught all 3 of his targets for 18 yards, and DEN is much at containing RB’s in the pass game than Pittsburgh.
Suggested Pick
Over 1.5 Receptions (-165)
Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
ALT 25+ Rec. Yards (+235)
WR Malik Nabors
Malik Nabors is simply an unfortunate product of how ineffective this Giants offense really is. Last Sunday, he caught 4 of 8 targets for just 41 yards. He is still getting 29.6% of the target share for New York, and averages 12 TPG. When facing Cover 3 and Cover-1 man, Nabers has caught 22 of 30 targets (73.3% CMP) for 226 yards, but the main concern here is he’s only been targeted 8 times (5-58) when Daniel Jones is under pressure. This doesn’t give me a lot of hope for Nabors to put up many yards in a game that is expected to be low-scoring. He will also be lining up against Joey Porter Jr. who has allowed just 17 rec. on 26 times targeted in his first 7 games of the season. He’s held opposing WR’s to 26 yards or less in 5 of his 7 games in ’24. Simply put, 67.5 receiving yards is a lot to ask here in a game where Daniel Jones is expected to be under a lot of heat from Pittsburgh’s edge-defenders.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Darius Slayton
The Steelers primary focus tonight will be to contain Malik Nabors, and they also do a good job of defending the slot, so Darius Slayton has a lot of value tonight. For starters, he’s caught 4 of 5 targets when Daniel Jones has been under pressure, and his average depth of target is just 11.7 yards. Overall, when facing Cover 3 and Cover 1-man Slayton has caught 12 passes on 19 targets (63.2% CMP) for 182 yards. He will go up against Steelers CB Donte Jackson who has already been targeted 30 times in 6 games by opposing QB’s. Of those 30 targets, WR’s have caught 17 of them for 177 yards. Slayton is averaging 3.6 targets, where he’s averaging 2.2 receptions, but with Nabers working downfield more and Daniel Jones under more pressure than normal this should give Slayton added opportunities for catches.
Suggested Pick
Over 2.5 receptions (-120)
WR Wan’Dale Robinson
I feel pretty gun shy on receiving yards for these New York Giant wide outs, but as is the case with Darius Slayton, I think there is good value in Wan’Dale Robinson’s receptions total. He lines up in the slot on 77.7% of his snaps, and while the Steelers defend the slot well they’re still allowing the 10th highest target-share % to the slot at 35.5%. The main reason I like Robinson here is because 55 of his 62 targets have either been behind the line of scrimmage or fewer than 10 yards. Knowing how much Pittsburgh likes to pressure the quarterback, Jones will make a concerted effort to get rid of the ball sooner.
Suggested Pick
Over 4.5 Rec -154
Steelers Team Overview
QB Russell Wilson
Mike Tomlin made the unpopular decision of turning to Russell Wilson, and all the veteran QB did was lead Pittsburgh to a 37-15 win over the Jets, where he completed 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards, 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s. He will look to continue his momentum on MNF against a Giants defense that is allowing just 179.4 passing yards/gm (6th fewest in NFL). NY runs zone-coverage on 64.8% of its snaps (12th lowest in NFL), with Cover 3 accounting for exactly 50% of their zone schemes. Beyond this, the Giants lean on Cover 1-man at a 27.5% rate. Considering Wilson has logged only one game this season, we’ll get a more accurate picture by looking at his numbers from last year in Denver. In 2023, Wilson completed 45 of 72 passes (62.5% CMP) for 552 yards, while tossing 5 TD’s to 0 INT’s for an overall QB rating of 109.3. Another layer to the NYG defense is their ability to get after the quarterback, as they rank 6th in pressure-rate (38.7%). Under this scenario, Wilson went 21 of 38 (55.3%) for 266 yards, 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s, and in his one start last week he went 4 for 11 under duress, throwing 2 TD’s and no interceptions. Pressure is very important to the Giants overall success, because when they are allowing a clean pocket to throw from, opposing QB’s are lighting up their defense to the tune of an 83.2% completion-rate, and Wilson had a 70.6% CMP-rate last season when he had time to throw. How often the NYG will be able to get to the Steelers QB remains to be seen, but there’s one thing that we can learn from all of these numbers regardless of pressure or a clean pocket, and that is Russell Wilson is extremely efficient when the ball is in his hands, especially against the two coverages he is going to see the most tonight. If you can find a book that is offering the Under on Wilson’s interceptions, I would swipe it up as fast as you can. That being said, I think the best play here is on his touchdown passes. The New York Jets had allowed only 4 passing TD’s total going into their game last week in Pittsburgh, and Russell Wilson threw 2 in that game. Tonight, he faces a Giants defense that has allowed opponents to find the end zone 14 times, but only 5 of those haven come via the rush. With this game being in Pittsburgh, I think there is tremendous value on Wilson throwing for 2 touchdowns at +165.
Suggested Pick
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110)
2+ TD's +165
RB Najee Harris
Last week Najee Harris had his second consecutive 100-yard game, logging a season-high 21 carries where he finished with 102 yards and a TD. He is averaging 4.1 YPC this season. He will go up against a Giants rush defense who is giving up 138.1 YPG to opposing RB’s. They allowed solid games to both Aaaron Jones (14-94) and Bijan Robinson (17-133) in the first 2 weeks of the season, before limiting Jerome Ford (10-37), Rico Dowdle (11-46), Kenneth Walker (5-19) and Chase Brown (10-53 yards), but Saquan Barkley (17-176) lit them up in week 7. Here’s where things get a little interesting though. Last week, Mike Tomlin used the passing game in order to set up the run. Under that approach, Tomlin used Jaylen Warren out of the backfield early on, and he actually out-snapped Harris by a 22 to 12 margin in the first half. Harris eventually dominated the backfield for Pittsburgh in order to put the game on ice, but if it weren’t for the Steelers getting out to a big lead, I don’t know that Harris reaches such a high number. Like I said earlier, the Giants are desperate, and I think their defense will respond following last week’s disastrous performance. A 36.5 point total, coupled with a 5.5 point spread screams a low scoring game, and I’m not confident on either side here for Najee.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR George Pickens
George Pickens is coming off a game against the NYJ where he had 5 catches, 111 yds, TD. Through 8 weeks of the season he is the only WR to post a 100-yard game against the Jets. Against Cover 1 and Cover 3, Pickens has hauled in 22 of 35 (62.9% CR) passes for 315 yards. Most importantly, the Steelers WR leads his team with a 29.6 target share, and it bumps up 31.8% vs these specific coverages. Last week, Pickens had receptions of 44 and 37 yard with Russell Wilson as quarterback. For all the flack Mike Tomlin got for starting the veteran QB over Justin Fields, it clearly was the right decision. With the Giants playing Cover 1-man at a 27.5% rate, this will give Pickens the same 1-on-1 opportunities that A.J. Brown had last week in a game that saw the Eagles WR log 89 yards with a long of 41. Pickens also has a massive 36.4% target-rate when he plays against man-coverage. He’s only caught 3 of 9 balls, but Justin Fields made the majority of those passes. He will line up across from NYG corner Deonte Banks, who’s been targeted 39 times, allowing 26 catches for 371 yards with longs of 24, 24, 27, 44 and 55.
Suggested Pick
Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
ALT Receiving Yards
70+ (+134)
80+ (+194)
90+ (+270)
Over 23.5 Longest Reception (-114)
WR Van Jefferson
Van Jefferson is one of the worst #2 wide receivers in the NFL, and he offers little value to the Steelers offense. He’s caught 10 balls on 16 targets for 77 yards, and that’s for all of the ’24 season. And things weren’t any different with Russell Wilson under center, as Jefferson had 2 receptions on 3 targets for 15 yards. He is clearly the #5 option in this offense behind Pickens, Freiermuth, Najee and now Jaylen Warren. He’s not worth considering at this point.
Suggested Pick
Pass
TE Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth is the 2nd option among Pittsburgh pass-catchers, and while it’s a distance second, he did have his second highest receiving yards output (51) last week with Russell Wilson at QB. When facing Cover 3 and Cover 1-man, Freiermuth has been very reliable when targeted. He’s caught 16 of his 18 targets (88.9 CR) for 164 yards against these coverages. Unfortunately, the Steelers TE hasn’t had a single game with more than 3 targets and last week Darnell Washington even had more than Freiermuth. Unfortunately, his value is non-existent this week, because the Giants defense is giving up just 35.1 YPG to opposing TE’s this year. Freiermurth has found the end zone only twice in ‘24 and NY has yet to surrender a TD to a TE.
Suggested Pick
Pass
Game Prediction
I expect the Giants to win this game! yes they have struggled but I think this Giants defense can get to Wilson and this Steelers offense. With New York sitting at 2-5 they know their season is on the line tonight, so we are going to see a maximum effort out of them. Low scoring battle but an Upset on MNF will be done
Best Bet (Giants +7.5 -122)
Lean (Under 36.5 -108)
Steelers 14 Giants 20