Top Picks

QB Jalen Hurts (29.8 Pts) 🔥🔥

Hurts could be in for a big day facing a terrible Jaguars defense. He can also rack up points getting rushing yards and TD's. Do I need to say much more?

RB Alvin Kamara (30.5 Pts) 🔥🔥

Usually, a 29-year-old running back doesn't churn out his best season over the last four seasons, but alas, Alvin Kamara is doing just that. He has 505 rushing yards on 127 rush attempts for a 4.2 yards per carry. But that's not all Kamara is. He's heavily utilized in the passing game, where he has already caught 40 of 53 targets for 307 receiving yards. He, too, is on pace to have his best season through the air over the last four seasons. Now, let's rewind to Week 1, where we saw Kamara against this Panthers defence. He ran the ball 15 times for 83 yards (5.5 yards per carry, long of 17) and found the end zone. He also caught all five of his targets for 27 receiving yards. It's important to keep in mind the game script here, though, as the Saints ran away with this game 30-3 at halftime, so they held back on his workload, yet still, he walked away with that performance. The Panthers defence is one to target on the ground. They allow the second most rush attempts (28), second most rushing yards (128.5) and most rushing TDs (1.6). Through the air, they're fairly sound, but that's likely due to game script and how bad they are on the ground, so you can just run the ball down their throat. Don't get me wrong; it doesn't matter what coverage they throw out there; the Panthers allow high yards per carry to either zone or man/gap scheme. However, the Panthers struggle more against zone, as they allow the fifth most yards per carry (4.94) compared to their 17th ranked (4.55) against man/gap. This is exciting news for Kamara as his splits against zone (4.6) are much better than against man/gap (3.4). Whether on the ground or through the air, Kamara is finding the end zone in this one, as he did against the Panthers in Week 1.

RB Bijan Robinson (21.5 Pts)🟡

If there is a game for Bijan to go nuts, it feels like this one. DAL has allowed (tied) the most rushing yards per game this season (154.6/game). They rank 7th in YPC allowed and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season (tied for 2nd most). They rank 8th in explosive run % and their stuff % ranks dead last. Bijan and Allgeier could easily both have great games here. DAL is allowing the highest success rate against man/gap, which Bijan does not primarily run scheme-wise. Bijan primarily runs in the zone scheme, which DAL allows the 12th highest success rate with. Dallas also allows the 6th most receiving yards to opposing RB’s, despite only allowing the 9th fewest receptions per game. All signs point to taking the playmakers rushing and receiving yards in this one. Huge day coming

WR Aj Brown (5.6 Pts) Hurt

This is such a nice spot for AJ. Not only is he averaging 102 receiving yards per game and has a TD in 3 of 4, but also gets a really nice matchup for his skill set. The Jags run man coverage at the 2nd highest rate this season. AJ owns a league-leading 14.9 aDOT with at least 30 routes run, a 63.5% AY share, a 40% target share and 45.5 receiving yards per game. TLDR: he dominates man coverage. He also owns a 5.35 YPRR and 15.17 YPT with a 20.22 yards per reception and a pair of TD’s. The 1st read % in man is an incredible 50%! Do not fade this man in this matchup.

WR CeeDee Lamb (16.2 pts)🟡

LOVE this spot for CeeDee coming off a statement game for him. Despite a very disappointing season for DAL, he still has yet to finish below 60 receiving yards in a game. He’s cleared 86 receiving yards in 4 of 7 this season and has had 4 total TD’s. The floor is just so high for this talented WR. He has 7+ targets in every game this season and is averaging over 10 targets per game. ATL runs zone at the 32rd highest rate this season (76.3%) with a ton of Cover 3 coverage. Lamb is better against  man (as most elite WR’s are), but he’s still great vs zone too with a 8.6 aDOT, 23.9% target share and 9,.44 yards per reception. WR1’s have fared well vs ATL: Metcalf (4 for 99, TD), Johnson (6 for 78, TD), Evans (5 for 62, 2 TD), Olave (8 for 87), Rice (12 for 110, TD), Smith (7 for 76, TD) and Pickens (6 for 85). No reason to think Lamb doesn’t eat again this weekend as the Boys look to grab a win on the road.

Sleepers

RB Chase Brown (29.7 Pts)🔥🔥

Oh, baby, the time has finally come. I don't know about you guys, but I've been waiting for Chase Brown to be given the opportunity to have the full starters role, and it couldn't have come in a better matchup against the Raiders. If you hadn't heard, Zack Moss, who signed with the Bengals in free agency, is doubtful heading into this matchup with a neck injury. So far this season, Brown has looked like the better running back. Brown has more rushing yards (359 to 242), a better yards per carry (4.6 to 3.3), more rushing TDs (4 to 2), fewer fumbles (1 to 2), more yards after contact (236 to 157), more missed tackles (15 to 9), and more 10+ yard rushes (12 to 5) than Moss on the season. This Raiders defense allows the 13th most rushing yards (102.13) and yards per carry (4.58) per game this season. They run more zone scheme (43.6%) than man/gap (37%), which is reflected in their yards per carry, with a 4.92 YPC in zone to 4.56 in man. There isn't much of a difference in terms of the run coverage the Raiders run; Brown is elite against man/gap, averaging 5.1 yards per carry compared to his 4.16 against zone. Brown is also great at forcing missed tackles, as he's broken the 10th most tackles in the league. This matchup couldn't be sweeter, as the Raiders allow the fifth most broken tackles to RBs in the league. Brown should be able to take advantage of this soft matchup and break out

WR Ladd McConkey (11.4 Pts)🟡

The Ladd finally broke out last week, as he recorded a career-high six receptions, 111 receiving yards and two receiving TDs. But he's been the most consistent WR in this new-look Chargers WR room, leading the field in targets (45), receptions (30), receiving yards (376) and receiving TDs (4). Lining up in the slot at 68.8% of his snaps, McConkey is very much a dependent on reception guy, which reflects in his WR-Chargers-low 9.5 aDoT. Unfortunately for McConkey, the Browns allow the ninth fewest receptions to WRs at just 10.25 per game. However, they also average the third highest aDoT at 9.9. But with the Browns offence finally looking competent with Winston under center, this could lead to a closer game and Herbert needing to rely on his quick target. With McConkey lining up in the slot the majority of the time, he will likely line up against the Browns slot CB Greg Newsome. And he's projected to allow the most yards per game this season, as he averages 15 yards per catch and has a 68.6% reception rate. Is last week's production a sign of things to come against a struggling slot CB? I'm thinking it might be.

WR Jalen Coker (5.6 Pts)🟡

With Dionte Johnson out of town and Adam Thielan being out the Panthers are relying on Jalen Coker this afternoon and he is good! He caught 4/6 targets for 78 yards and a TD last week against the Broncos and will be looking to add to this facing a Saints team that has allowed the 4th most receptions this year. Guy is a sleeper and I like this man a lot

WR Courtland Sutton (22.8 Pts) 🔥🔥

The Ravens defense has been challenged deep often this year, with a 14.0 aDOT that is the 10th highest in the NFL. Sutton is a prolific downfield threat for Nix and the Broncos, and averages 13 yards per reception. Sutton lines up out wide on 85.7 of snaps he is in the game. This is the alignment that has done the most damage against the Ravens as well, as wide alignment targets on the season have resulted in 988 receiving yards against the Ravens, which is the most in the NFL. Teams have been successful hitting this alignment on deep balls against Baltimore as well, with a 21.0 completion percentage, ranking the 6th highest in the NFL. This may seem to contradict Nix who has often checked the ball down and has a low YPA. However, what is interesting about Nix is he also has thrown the 4th most deep passes in the NFL, and it is primarily the intermediate game he has stayed away from. I think because of this you definitely could see a nice game from Sutton particularly in what should be a passing game script. There also are some questions at CB for Baltimore, with both Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey questionable.

WR Jayden Reed 16.8 Pts) 🔥🔥

Here’s a guy I really like this week. Reed is a swiss-army knife type player, but runs a lot out of the slot. DET is allowing THE MOST yards, receptions and targets to the slot this season. They almost own 20 more targets to the slot than the next team on the list. Reed is running out of the slot at almost an 80% clip. If we look past the TEN game, Jalen Nailor out of the slot recorded 4 catches on 5 targets for 76 yards. I think this is where you attack this secondary and Reed is already the WR1 in this offense. 

Fade Spots

WR Tyreek Hill (10.0 Pts) 🟡

Tyreek Hill has struggled in his career against the Bills, a defense that in recent years has done a great job of containing the deep ball as well as opposing WR1s. In games with Tua, Hill has eclipsed over 70 yards in only 1 of 5 games against Sean McDermott’s Bills defense. They have the 3rd lowest defensive aDOT against at only 6.8 yards, and only 9.81 yards per reception (also 3rd lowest). As earlier mentioned, Tua also has the 4th lowest passing aDOT among QBs with at least 25 dropbacks, which is not a good combination to have with a WR in Hill who has a 12.7 aDOT and is extremely capable of breaking off YAC, averaging 5.43 YAC per reception. When you combine this with the fact that the Bills do not surrender too many deep completions or deep passes in general.

RB Nick Chubb (4.0 Pts) ❄️

Nick Chubb has returned from his gruesome knee injury he sustained last season. He's struggled in his two games this season, having 11 rush attempts for 22 rushing yards and 16 rush attempts last week with 52 yards. That's a 2.0 and 3.3 yards per carry on 27 attempts. Granted, the Ravens have an outstanding run defence, but to only have 2.0 yards per carry against the Bengals and their 14th easiest running back matchup is frustrating. I don't expect much to change in this matchup against the Chargers, who allow the 23rd most rushing yards to RBs, averaging 84.3 per game. It's been a near 50/50 split in terms of run scheme Chubb has faced, with 14 attempts against zone scheme and 13 against man/gap. But he sees a substantial dip when running against man/gap, with just a 30.3% success rate and a 3.08 yards per carry. Luckily for Chubb, the Chargers run man/gap at the third-lowest rate and the zone concept at the eighth-highest rate. While his yards per carry dips to 2.43 against zone, his success rate jumps up to 42.9%. Now, don't get it wrong; these numbers are still very unimpressive. And in a hard matchup and the running back room full healthy, we might see a bit more of committee.