Jordan Love has been impressive this season, and now he gets potentially the easiest quarterback matchup this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars allow the second most passing yards against (285.14), the fifth most pass attempts (36), the most passing touchdowns (2.29) and the fifth most rushing yards to QBs (26.86) per game. Jacksonville runs the MOST man coverage across the entire league at 49.8% of their plays. And this isn't something new for Love, considering he's faced the most man coverage in the entire league, facing the coverage on 45.3% of his dropbacks. However, he struggles against the coverage, completing just 53.1% of his passes for 126 yards of his 1,351 passing yards, averaging 3.94 yards per play, which ranks as the lowest in the entire league. This Green Bay Packers offensive line is fairly decent at protecting Love, as he's pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks, ranking 18th in the NFL. However, Love is very good at avoiding the pressure, as he ranks 28th in percentage of his dropbacks resulting in a sack (11.4%). When Love sees a clean pocket, he's completing 69.4% of his passes with a 12-4 touchdown to interception ratio. What does a clean pocket lead to? Deep balls. And Love ranks third in the league in deep ball completion percentage, completing 15.1% of his passes. Jacksonville ranks middle of the pack in deep ball completion percentage, allowing 10.7% of deep ball completions. Considering the Jaguars having the eighth-lowest percentage pressure rate on QB dropbacks, maybe this is the week Love can dissect a man-coverage-heavy Jaguars scheme with extra time in the pocket and complete some deep balls.

Walker is averaging 4.66 YPC and 42.9% of his yards have come from explosive runs, which ranks 16th and 5th respectively amongst RBs with 50+ rush attempts. Kenneth will get a smash matchup against the Bills rush defense that has allowed 5.08 YPC and 38.1% of yards against have come from explosive runs, which ranks 4th and 6th most respectively. Looking at the Bills defensive line, they are allowing the 2nd most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.8). The Bills have been much worse against man/gap concepts compared to zone concepts. Against man/gap concepts, they are allowing 5.62 YPC (3rd highest) and a 48.5% success rate (14th highest). Against zone concepts, they are allowing only 3.73 YPC (6th lowest) and a 36.5% success rate (5th lowest). 53.8% of Kenneth’s attempts have been zone concepts, where he’s averaging 4.46 YPC. This compares to 44.6% of attempts being man/gap concepts, averaging 4.97 YPC. Another split worth mentioning is that Kenneth averages 5.2 YPC on shotgun runs compared to 4.1 YPC under center. The Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-most YPC to shotgun runs (5.9) and the 5th-fewest YPC to under center runs (3.6). The Bills are also allowing the 2nd most receiving yards to RBs. Kenneth has a 46.7% route share this season, which is way up from last year’s rate of 30.4%. He’s averaging 4.6 receptions and 32 receiving yards per game as a result. Overall, this is a matchup to back all-purpose yards for KWIII.

Everything is pointing to Javonte Williams having a big game on Sunday. He is coming off his best game of the season, where he ran for 111 yards and 2 TD on 17 touches out of the backfield. His usage has also been up as well. In the L4 games, Williams has had 80+ yards from scrimmage 3 times, and he posted 110+ in two of those. Carolina has been getting absolutely shredded in the run game. They have the worst rush defense in the league, allowing 133.3 YPG to opposing running backs, and they’ve surrendered 13 touchdowns to RB’s in ’24, which is 4 more than New England and Miami, who have given up 9 each. With a positive game script coming, I’m expecting a very good game  from Javonte Williams on Sunday. 

Prior to the Amari trade, Shakir operated as Josh Allen’s number 1 option. He leads the Bills in YPRR (2.53), has been targeted on 23% of his routes, and has a 1st-read target rate of 20.6%. He has operated as Josh’s underneath guy, with the lowest aDOT on the team (3.9). The Seahawks allow the 5th lowest target share to outside receivers, but the 11th highest target share to the slot. Shakir has run 74.2% of his routes from the slot. The Seahawks rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. When Josh Allen has been pressured, Shakir leads the Bills receivers in YPRR (2.37). Last week in Cooper’s debut, Shakir caught all 7 of his targets for 65 receiving yards. His aDOT was only 0.6 yards, lowest on the Bills. The Seahawks as a defense have allowed the lowest aDOT in the NFL, meaning Shakir is primed to be peppered with targets as the underneath guy, especially not being the focal point of opposing game plans anymore with the addition of Cooper.

For all the criticism CeeDee Lamb has still managed to put up 32 receptions for 467 yards, but  when you’ve only found the end zone twice haters are gonna hate. The truth of the matter is  that CeeDee’s numbers are a mirror image from that of last year at this exact time in the  season. After 7 weeks in the ’23 season, Lamb had 34 catches for 467 yards with only 1 TD. The  rest of the season is history, as he finished with 1749 yards and 12 touchdowns. CDL has a  target share of 24.3% vs Cover 1, 3 and 4, where he has 26 rec. on 42 targets (61.9% CR) for 356  yards, but what’s most impressive is the 141 YAC that he’s put up. If the Cowboys have done  their homework they will line Lamb up in the slot as much as possible, considering nearly 50% of San Francisco’s receptions have come in the slot (8th most in NFL). When he lines up here, he  will go up against Deommodore Lenoir, who has already been targeted 40 times this season,  where he’s allowed 25 receptions for 220 yards. In a twist of irony, he has given up exactly 141  YAC, but he’s not allowed any receiver to haul in a pass of more than 21 yards. The 49ers have  had a bend, but don’t break defense, but here is why I’m going all in on CeeDee Lamb this  Sunday. In his L3 seasons when coming off a bye, he has blown up. Last year, he had 12-158  (2TD), in ’22 he posted 11-150 (2 TD) and in ’21 Lamb had 6-112. He’s going to go off on SNF!! 

After struggling to start the season with rumors that he would lose his job, Swift has run for 93, 73 and 91 yards in the last 3 weeks. He averages 3.57 YPC on the season, but that number has been 4.76 in the past 3 weeks. The Commanders have been a run funnel, as they have allowed the 4th highest rush rate over expectations. They allow the 6th most YPC (4.93) and the 2nd highest explosive run rate (8.0%). They specifically struggle vs man/gap concepts, allowing the 2nd most YPC (5.96). About half of Swift’s attempts are in man/gap run concepts, where he has a 47.8% success rate, compared to a 37.2% success rate in zone concepts. However, his YPC are lower, averaging 3.52 compared to 3.74 in zone concepts. Swift has seen 16, 21 and 17 carries in the last three games, expect that volume to continue this week in a bullish matchup.

Jeudy is interesting to me this week. He should be the number 1 in CLE now that Cooper is gone and Jameis did like to prioritize him in his single TD drive last week. Of Jameis’ 11 pass attempts, 4 were to Jeudy and several were downfield. BAL is allowing the most passing yards per game this season and we’ll likely see a passing heavy game script in this one. BAL runs man and zone coverages at similar rates compared to the league average. Jeudy can be a breakaway threat and Jameis isn’t afraid to chuck it. As a result, I like the receiving yards look here.

This is a spot where I think there is some real value. Last week, Troy Franklin led Denver with a 29% target per route ran, 23% target share and 32% air-yard share. Sean Payton has been  specifically designing plays for him, and in turn he posted 5 receptions for 50 yards last Sunday.  He will match up against a Carolina defense that ranks 8th in zone-coverage rate and 31st in pass  +defense DVOA. Franklin also has a great matchup when he lines up across from CB Jaycee Horn, who has allowed opposing WR’s to post games of 25, 3, 49, 33, 31 and 34 yards. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Broncos will look to win this weekend behind their running game and defense, but that doesn’t mean Sean Payton isn’t going to continue building  on the rapport the former Oregon teammates have already established with each other. 

He is a sleeper because everybody hates him now because of the way he has been playing, You get the feeling this could be Kelce’s  encore performance for the Chiefs. He will still be an important part of this offense down the road, but we already got a glimpse of how Rashee Rice began putting Kelce on the backburner of Mahomes mind. But for now, he needs Kelce now more than ever. I’m willing to overlook his performance last week against a 49ers team that limited him to 5 catches for only 17 yards. Still, Kelce logged 5 targets, and in his 2 games prior to that he has 10 and 9 targets, where he  posted outings of 9-70 and 7-89. With regard to his numbers vs Cover 3, Kelce has caught 8 of 11 balls thrown his way, but he’s totaled just 54 yards. However, this kind of plays into what the Raiders allow, or rather don’t allow. They’ve given up the 10th fewest yards to the TE position this year at 39.6 YPG, however Las Vegas does play pretty soft, allowing a catch rate of 81.4%. I  like the value in Kelce’s receptions here, as the offense is clearly going through him right now. 

Ertz is averaging 1.58 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. The Bears are around league average in terms of yards given up to opposing TEs (45.83 YPG). The Bears play zone defense 75.8% of the time (3^rd highest) and run 1-high safety 57.2% of the time (10^th highest). Against zone coverage, Ertz is averaging 2.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes, both positive splits. Ertz was still able to bring in 4 receptions for 40 yards last week despite Mariota taking over for Jayden Daniels. The Bears have the 7^th highest pressure rate over expectations. When his QB has been under pressure, Ertz averages 1.56 YPRR and has a 25% target share. Backup QBs typically target TEs as a safety blanket, I like this spot for Ertz to produce.