Since stepping in as the Steelers starter for Justin Fields, Wilson has not been efficient in terms of completing passes, with only a 58.8 completion% on the season. With that being said, he has made his completions count with 17.6% of his passes coming over 20 yards, which is the 4th highest rate in the NFL. This has resulted in a 8.7 YPA overall, which is 6th in the NFL. Wilson likes to throw the ball downfield, and it should be music to his ears to find out that this Ravens defense allows 13.1% of deep throws to be completed, which is the 5th most in the NFL. They also have allowed a 8.8 aDOT against, which is the 6th most in the NFL. The Ravens defense has been attacked often through the air as they are very good against the run, but not as good against the pass. They have a +6.8% PROE (pass rate over expectation) allowed, which makes them the biggest pass funnel in the NFL. To tack on to all of that, they are without Kyle Hamilton, who may just be their best defensive player (Ravens are allowing 9.3 YPA without Hamiton on the field). This is a solid spot for Wilson all around, but given the shots that he likes to take downfield and the trouble Baltimore has had defending the deep ball, that is the spot I would like to target.

For the season, Herbert averages 209.9 passing yards per game, averages 7.84 YPA and has thrown 11 TDs. Herbert has been better in his last 5 games, averaging 262.2 passing yards per game as the Chargers have become more pass heavy. However, that shifted back the other way, but I’ll give them a pass as they were facing the Titans, who allow the least passing yards per game. Now he’ll face a Bengals defense that allows the 11^th most passing yards per game. The Bengals have the 10^th lowest pressure rate over expected. Herbert averages 8.16 YPA and a 108.4 QB rating in a clean pocket, compared to 6.87 YPA and an 87.6 QB rating when pressured. Looking at the Bengals defensive scheme, they run single-high 55.2% of the time and run zone 68.4% of the time.

This season seems to have been an uphill battle from training camp onwards. Having to deal with Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk missing training camp, then losing Christian McCaffrey, then losing Aiyuk for the remainder of the season. But Brock Purdy has done his best and is having an impressive contract year, as he's sixth across the league in passing yards (2,454), averaging the second-most passing yards per game at 272.2, trailing only the guy on the other side of the field by 11.7 yards per game. In their matchup earlier this season, Purdy went 18 for 28 for 255 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Through his years as a starter for the 49ers, Purdy has thrown for 200 passing yards in all five meetings, topping 250 in three of those five. This Seahawks defence allows the 12th most passing attempts (32.8) and the 10th most passing yards (233.8). The Seahawks run just below average of man coverage at 24.9%, which is pretty favourable for Purdy, as he averages the second-highest yards per attempt at 9.84. Seattle allow the seventh most yards per attempt against zone (8.4%). Purdy again should be able to pick apart this defence, like he did in Week 5 and three of the previous five meetings.

Henry has been the NFL’s premiere RB this season. Out of RBs with at least 50 attempts, he has the highest YPC at an incredibly impressive 6.09. Henry also leads the NFL in total yards, with 1120 this season. He sees a fairly tough run defense with Pittsburgh in this matchup, which have a 46.6% stuff rate, and also are a great tackling team, giving up only 2.12 YAC per attempt, which is the 9th lowest for an NFL defense. This makes for a strength on strength matchup with Henry, who thrives on making plays after first contact. Henry has not been able to really get going over the past 2 weeks, and last week it was primarily due to a trailing game script.  He has seen 86.7% of the Ravens carries inside the 5 yard line. Meanwhile, the Steelers have not been able to offer much resistance in those near goal line situations, with RBs scoring 53.3% of TDs against them (4th most in NFL).

De’Von Achane has been outstanding when he is paired with Tua Tagovailoa. His usage on MNF, where he handled 70.8% of Miami’s backfield touches, further solidified his role as the  clear lead back. With Raheem Mostert taking a backseat and playing only 8 snaps in that game,  it’s clear that Achane is the preferred option in the Dolphins offense. Looking ahead to his  matchup against Las Vegas, he has a very favorable scenario. The Raiders give up 4.64 YPC to  opposing running backs, ranking them just 24th in the league, while allowing 5.0 receptions per  game to RB’s. This bodes well for Achane, who has been heavily involved in both the ground  game and passing attack. Over his L3 games with Tua at quarterback, Achane has caught 5, 8  and 6 passes with a strong 20.4% target rate, which should lead to another productive outing  through the air. Additionally, LV has surrendered 10 total TD’s to the RB position in ’24, further  boosting the likelihood that Achane finds pay dirt in this one. Given his expanded role, both as a rusher and pass-catcher, his total yards from scrimmage as well as his total receptions are all  must plays this week against a downtrodden Raiders team. 

After finding the end zone 8 times in his first six games of the season, Kyren Williams has been  shut out in the last 3 weeks. Out of 27 running backs who have 100 or more attempts this  season, Williams ranks 25th in YPC at 3.8 per game. On the positive side, his workload has  allowed him yield positive results on the ground as he’s had 20 or more touches in 5 straight  games. The Patriots are allowing 4.61 YPC to opposing RB’s, so this bodes well for Williams. This  could be the week that he finally breaks his scoreless streak. Half of the Pats touchdowns  allowed in ’24 have come on the ground, which is the 6th most in the league. Since limiting the  running attack of CIN (70 RY) and SEA (46) to a combined 106 yards in the first 2 weeks of the  season, NE has 5 different RB’s to rush for over 100 yards. This is a very good spot for Kyren. 

George Pickens is Russel Wilson’s primary option at WR. He has seen a nice spike in production with Wilson as the starter over the last 3 game in comparison to Fields. With Fields, Pickens averaged 2.30 yards per route run, but with Wilson this number has jumped to 3.21. Pickens is converting his target at a nice rate, with a catch rate of 62.5% and with QBs this year that have struggled in terms of completion percentage. However, his route rate of 79.5% is not incredibly high for a typical WR1, and we will see if Pickens’ recent performance earns him more volume. He is an outside WR who has lined up 71.7% of his routes up wide. This is good news for Pickens facing a Ravens defense who has given up 1396 yards on wide alignment targets this year, which is by far the most in the NFL. Wilson will test this defense deep, and with an aDOT of 13.9, we can expect Pickens to see some great chances down the field.

In the last 2 weeks the Jags have ran Man Coverage just 21.2% and 23.8% and they are coming off a game where they shut down the Vikings offense so I find it hard to believe them going man heavy like they were early on in the season.Over the last 2 weeks the Jags have ran man coverage 22.7% and run Two High Safety/Middle of Field Open Rate 77.3% of the time. This season Amon Ra averages 2.60 YPRR against zone coverage having a ridiculous 43 of the team’s 97 receptions against Zone (44.32%). Not only that but against the Two High/Open he averages 3.06 YPRR having 26 of the teams 53 receptions (49.05%). The Jaguars allow the 7th HIGHEST YPRR (1.59) and the 3rd MOST receptions with the 11th HIGHEST YPR against Two High Open. Look for Amon to shine!

Deebo is the definition of a boom-bust player. He's had two games this season where he's had over 100+ receiving yards and then two games where he had zero and 11 yards. But the other four games, he's finished anywhere between 54 - 71 receiving yards. So this all averages out to 58.5 receiving yards per game this season. The Seahawks allow the ninth most receptions (12.4) and the 14th most receiving yards (146.9) to WRs. Seattle runs the 19th most man coverage (24.1%). The one rule when analyzing these San Fran WRs, is you take Aiyuk when playing a man-heavy team and Deebo when playing a zone-heavy team. The Seahawks would be considered a zone-heavy team as they run below league-average man coverage. So you fire up Deebo, who has caught 18 of 24 targets for 247 receiving yards. Deebo has the seventh-highest PFF grade across all WRs in the NFL against zone coverage. But where Deebo has the biggest advantage is just his history against the Seahawks. In his last six games against Seattle, Deebo has 79 or more yards in five games, topping 100 yards in four of those five and averages 110.5 yards per game. That continued in their matchup earlier this season when he had 102 receiving yards. Deebo is a gadget weapon, lining up all over the field: 28% on the left, 40% in the slot and 32% on the right. Devon Witherspoon is the primary slot CB for the Seahawks. The former first-round pick has struggled in the slot, especially over the last three weeks, as he's allowed 18 receptions on 24 targets for 176 receiving yards.

At the start of the year, it looked like Kelce had hit his age wall and that he was on a massive decline. However, once the Chiefs lost Rice for the season, Kelce was back to being Mahomes' number-one target. Kelce averaged 23 receiving yards on three receptions through those first three games but has averaged 71.7 receiving yards on 8.7 receptions per game in the following five games since then. The Bills allow the sixth-most targets (7.5) and the 10th-most receptions (5.5), but the 19th-most receiving yards to TEs per game. Against the Bills, Kelce has been featured, seeing at least six receptions in four of his last five games, recording 75+ receiving yards in also four of those five games. We're anticipating Mahomes to be passing a ton, he should go to his number-one target early and often. Kelce has also seen his aDoT dip to 6.7 through his last three games. Could have a HUGE game

Njoku has also been very involved since Winston took over. He’s been over this 50-yard receiving mark in two of his last three with Winston under center. In those three games, he has yet to have under 7 targets and 5 receptions. Despite only allowing the 21st most receptions to opposing TE’s per game (4.70), they do allow the 12th most receiving yards to TE’s per game (56.0). 

George Kittle doesn't get the respect as the leagues top TE as he deserves. He leads all TEs in PFF grade, fifth in receptions (43), second in receiving yards (560), and first in touchdowns (7). In his last five games, Kittle has gone over 55 receiving yards in each outing, averaging 79.8 yards per game. Seattle allows the 11th most receptions (5.3) and the 13th most receiving yards (55.4) to TEs. Against the Seahawks, Kittle has registered 55+ receiving yards in four of six games, averaging 77.3 yards per game. Kittle hasn't had troubles finding the end zone this season, scoring a TD in six of his last seven games. And that remains true against the Seahawks, as he has six TDs in his previous six games.