Darnold is averaging 237.5 passing yards per game, 8.52 YPA and has thrown 17 TDs. He’ll face a Jaguars defense allowing the 2nd most passing yards per game. The Jags have the 5th lowest pressure rate over expectations. Darnold should be operating from a clean pocket most of the day. He averages 9.34 YPA in a clean pocket, compared to only 5.94 YPA when pressured. From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars play the 2nd highest rate of man coverage (41%) and they allow the 6th most fantasy points per drop back when they run it. Against man coverage, Darnold averages 10.71 YPA and an insanely efficient 120.4 QB rating. They also run two-high at the 5th highest rate (51.6%). Against 2-high, Darnold has negative splits, averaging only 6.95 YPA. Darnold should be able to torch this defense

The Eagles have a full bill of health heading into this week against the Cowboys, when they entered the week with questionable tags on all of Jalen Hurts' weapons: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts has been great this year, and has only had all three of his top weapons in one game this season, Week 1. In that week, Hurts went off against a tough Green Bay Packers defense, where he went 20/34, 278 passing yards, two TDs and two INTs. Since then, Hurts has had one game where he had more passing yards than that. With all of his alotment of weapons, Hurts should have no reason to not bounce back. This marks the first matchup against the Dallas Cowboys on the season, but Hurts has typically struggled in this matchup, surpassing 210 passing yards just once in the previous two seasons. However, this is a different Cowboys passing defense, still allowing the 18th most passing yards (230.1) but on the second-fewest passing attempts against (27.6). This indicates that the Cowboys are allowing a high number of big plays against. And that reflects in them allowing the second most yards per pass attempt (8.3) and sixth most deep ball percentage allowed (12.7%). The Cowboys run the sixth most zone coverage (82.9%). Against zone, Hurts has the 19th most pass completions (111), 23rd most passing yards (1,218). BUT, he has the second-highest completion percentage (75.5%) and the ninth most yards per pass attempt (8.3). What does that mean? Hurts should be able to take advantage of a weaker Cowboys defense.

Kamara leads the NFL in combined RB touches (when considering both receptions and carries) at 196. He has been relied upon heavily with the injuries at QB and WR throughout the year for the Saints, and is being relied upon even more so without Jamaal Williams at RB, who is also injured at the moment. The injury to Shaheed seemed to correlate with a massive spike in volume in the receiving game, as he has been targeted on an impressive 36.0% of his routes run with no Shaheed. In the rushing game, the Falcons are vulnerable as well, having the 4th lowest stuff rate in the NFL at only 37.0%. He is asked to be their everything right now, even with Carr now back. He should have a big week 

Robinson has asserted himself as valuable threat for the Falcons at RB both on the ground and through the passing game. He has slowly and methodically taken more of the rush share away from backup RB Tyler Allgeier, taking 76% of the carries last week for the Falcons. The Saints defense has really struggled on the season, giving up 5.08 YPC to opposing RBs, which is the 3rd highest in the NFL. They also have the 3rd lowest stuff rate in the NFL at only 36.8% on the year. He struggled against the Saints back in Week 4, but only got 7 carries in that game, which I would be shocked to see happen again. This is a great matchup for Robinson to run free against, especially if the Falcons can open up an early lead and use Bijan to hang on.

Pittman has been ruled out so Downs takes over as the primary focus, which he has honestly already been with Flacco under center. With Flacco this season, he has 60+ receiving yards in every game, averaging 77.2 per game. We need Flacco to be decent to get Downs the ball, but there is plenty to like here, especially given a likely negative game script early. Downs is the Colts primary slot WR this season, playing there for 85.3% of his passing snaps. BUF is allowing the 7th most receiving yards out of the slot per game (87.4 yards). Given the chemistry with Flacco, the matchup and predicted game flow, this looks like a solid spot for Downs.

JJetta averages 97.9 receiving yards per game, 3.29 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. He has a 1^st read rate of 38.4%. The Jaguars allow the 4^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars play the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage (41%) and they allow the 6^th most fantasy points per drop back when they run it. Against man coverage, Jefferson averages an insane 4.73 YPRR and has been targeted on 33% of his routes. They also run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (51.6%). Against 2-high, Jefferson has negative splits averaging 2.05 YPRR and 26% TPRR. Jefferson has lined up out wide on 69.3% of his routes and in the slot 29.8% of his routes. The Jags allow the 19^th highest target share to wide alignment (39.5%), and the 26^th highest target share to the slot (29.7%).

I think this might be the game where he can finally make a true depiction of how this Jets receiver role will shake out for the rest of the season. Since getting traded to New York, Adams has taken a little bit to regain that level of chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. They're not on the same page as their days in Green Bay, but that's to be expected after a couple years off and a couple years older. One thing I noticed was Adams' snap count went down as the weeks went on, but Adams left with an injury for a while. What didn't take a dip was his route percentage, as that rose from 85.3% to 100%. Last week was also the first game as a Jet, where he led the team in targets with 11. The Cardinals run the 18th-most man coverage at 25.1%, just below the league average. This is a nice tick in Adams' corner, as he does much against zone coverage, catching 79.3% of his targets compared to 33.3% of his targets against man. Adams runs most of his routes on the right outside (37%) and is projected to line up against Max Melton. Melton has had a fairly impressive rookie year, only having one game where he's allowed more than three receptions in one game and a 69% (nice) catch rate on the season. However, the Cardinals still allow the seventh-most receiving yards (158.6) and the eighth-most receptions (12.6) per game.

Kelce averages 54.4 receiving yards per game, 1.84 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. Since Rashee has been out, his averages have increased to 69.3 receiving YPG, 2.08 YPRR and targeted on 32% of his routes. The Broncos currently allow the 11^th lowest YPG to opposing TEs. Kelce lines up all over, 28.4% out wide, 43.2% in the slot and 27.1% inline. The Broncos allow a 11.5% target share to inline and a 33.1% target share to the slot, both middle of the pack. They allow the 5^th lowest target share to wide alignment (36.1%). Scheme wise, the Broncos run single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and run man at the 4^th highest rate (36.8%). Against single-high, Kelce averages 2.66% YPRR and a 30% TPRR. Against man coverage, Kelce averages 2.45 YPRR. These are both positive splits, setting up Kelce for a lot of production. In his last 2 games against Denver, Kelce has 124 and 58 receiving yards.

Hill played his season high in snaps last week at 35, and it makes sense considering how decimated the Saints are in terms of injuries just about anywhere else. He had 5 rushes for 19 yards last week, and also 4 receptions for 41 yards. It is tough to predict exactly where the Saints will use Hill since he can line up just about anywhere and make plays, but because of the load that we can expect from Kamara as well as Carr’s struggles (and the lack of WR options), I could see the Saints looking to diversify their rushing attack with many QB wildcat looks from Hill against a vulnerable rush defense.