TNF Broncos vs Saints @8:15 EST

QB Bo Nix 

The 2 best games in terms of QBR for the rookie QB this year have been against the Bucs (79.5 QBR), and last week against the Chargers (56.2 QBR). These teams rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in the percentage of defensive snaps in zone, with the Bucs in zone 82.4% of the time and the Chargers in zone 82.1% of the time. Nix has been willing to dump the ball off underneath, taking what a zone defense gives him. This has resulted in the 3rd highest checkdown percentage among starters, at 14.1%. Although the Saints are in zone at a much lower rate than the teams Nix has had the most success against (NO ranks 19th in NFL in snaps in zone), they do have a defense that gives up the 2nd highest checkdown % against to opposing passers, at 13.1. This is primarily due to often playing 2 high safeties and leaving space over the middle, which was something the Bucs were able to take advantage against last week against the Saints. With a 2-high % of 51.2, the 2nd highest in the NFL, look for Bo Nix’s trend of checking the ball down, as well as the Saints’ trend of giving up checkdowns to continue in this game, particularly with this acting as a good substitute for the run for a Broncos’ team that has struggled to find much consistency on the ground all year long.

Suggested Play
Bo Nix o18.5 completions (-120)

RB Javonte Williams

There is certainly an opening for opposing rushing attacks to really give the Saints defense a hard time, as they are currently allowing 5.17 YPC against, the 3rd highest mark in the NFL, and also a 5.8% explosive run rate against, which is the 13th highest mark. The issue with Williams in this matchup is that he is averaging only 3.32 YPC against man coverage, which New Orleans is in defensively at the 11th highest rate in the league. Fellow RB Jaleel McLaughlin has been slightly better against man coverage, with a 3.85 YPC against man. Williams has a snap share of 58.6% on the season, but this fell to just 33% in last week’s game against the Chargers. This isn’t an awful matchup for a team to do well against running the football, which makes it tough for me to take an under. However given the uncertainty in who will be getting the carries, plus the fact that Denver has often substituted their rushing attack with a short passing game, it is difficult to pull the trigger on an over either.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Courtland Sutton

Sutton has been by far the Broncos’ primary option in the passing game this year, as he has the most routes run on the team by a wide margin at 73, and by far the highest target share at 25.9% This matchup presents a lack of a real edge for Sutton however, especially against a team that lines up in Cover-2 24.0% of the time, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. Against Cover-2, the target share for Sutton falls to just 15.0%, which is well behind his overall average. The injured Josh Reynolds had been targeted the most against Cover 2, at 23.7% of the time, meaning their will be opening for others to attack in the middle of the field, but Sutton is likely not that player. The Saints have given up the most YAC in the NFL per reception at over 7, but Sutton is a guy who has been easily tackled and does not yet have a completion of 30+ yards on the year, and has a YAC per reception of only 0.67, making it hard to imagine him being the player that could best take advantage of the issue the Saints have had in tackling in space.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Devaughn Vele

As mentioned earlier, the Saints are lined up with 2-high safeties the 2nd most in the NFL, at 51.2% of the time. Vele is a guy who should see an increase in snaps in this game without Josh Reynolds healthy for Denver, and he is a player who can certainly take advantage of 2-high as he actually has the highest YPRR on the Broncos against it at 3.2. He has an aDOT of 7.5 against it, which is right in the area the Saints have been hurt the most the season, as well as where Nix likes to look. He also is averaging 7.75 YAC after his receptions against 2-high, which is the highest on the Broncos. This also matches up nice with a Saints team that has given up many YAC, with 7.24 YAC allowed per reception being the highest mark in the NFL

Suggested Play

Devaughn Vele
o32.5 receiving yards (-110)
40+ Rec Yds +146
50+ Rec Yds +240
1+ TD +400

WR Troy Franklin

Like Vele, Franklin is another player that could take advantage of the Saints frequenting a cover-2 and cover-1 defense, seeing 0.31 targets per route run against those coverages. Franklin has also seen 29.1% of the Broncos’ air yards on passes against the cover 2, and this not even accounting for the potential ability for YAC against a Saints defense that has given up a lot of it on the year (mentioned previously). He is coming off a career high in routes run last week with 28, and should see at least that on Thursday night as well. With Reynolds out, Franklin is yet another player who can take advantage of the soft spots in the Saints defense.

Suggested Play
Troy Franklin
'O' 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
40+ Rec Yds +240
50+ Rec Yds +390

QB Spencer Rattler 

There is little data on Rattler thus far, as this will be only his 2nd NFL start. However there are a couple of key factors we can extrapolate from his first start last week, in which he finished with 140 yards on 11-17, an INT, and a TD pass. In comparison to Derek Carr, Rattler has significantly more mobility, and that could come in handy against a Denver defense that has been able to generate pressure on 33.3% of opposing dropbacks, which ranks 15th in the NFL. In the first start for Rattler, despite some success in running the ball, he did not fair well passing the ball under pressure, throwing his INT under pressure and just have a 33% completion percentage while seeing it 43.8% of snaps, which is the 3rd highest percentage among QBs that have seen at least 15 dropbacks. The Saints are also short at WR, and will have both Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed out for this game in all likelihood. Rattler sees a minor boost in that he also will likely not have to deal with Broncos star CB Patrick Surtain, who is also likely out in this matchup. The Saints also have the wild card of Taysom Hill on their bench, which make it difficult to determine the snap volume of Rattler in this game. I do like Rattler’s matchup to rush the ball here, but with Hill also being used on the ground there are far too many variables to have a lean in the QB ground game due to uncertainty with volume, and this uncertainty also obviously applies to Rattler in the pass game as well.

Suggested Play
Pass

RB Alvin Kamara

Kamara has a stuff-rate of 45.2% on the season, which ranks 37th out of 61 RBs with at least 25 rush attempts on the year. The Broncos have also had success stuffing the run, with a stuff% of 47.9% defensively, ranking 7th in the NFL. The issue is that when they are not stopping the RB close to the line, they have been vulnerable with runs in the range of 3-15 yards, and overall have given up 4.01 YPC, which is the 6th worst in the NFL. Kamara also has thrived right around that range as well, and has 11 rushes on the year that have gone for more than 10 yards, which is tied for 7th in the NFL. Another area of this matchup I love for Kamara is in the pass game. The Broncos are in man coverage 45.3% of the time, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. Against man coverage, Kamara has a 3.37 yards per route run against man, which is by far the highest for RBs in the league. He also has 2.51 YPRR overall, which is the 2nd highest overall for RBs against all coverages. With a rookie QB, two key WRs injured, and in a great matchup you can expect some plays drawn up for Kamara in the passing game to get Rattler some easy completions and some easy success.

Suggested Plays
Alvin Kamara
'O' 108.5 rush + rec yards (-114)
'O' 5.5 receptions (+108)

WR Bub Means

Means has only run routes against man coverage 25.0% of the time, but we can expect that number to go way up with the injuries at WR for the Saints. When he does run routes, he is actually getting the ball thrown to him a fairly high percentage, with a target per route run 25% of the time, which is actually just behind Olave and Shaheed who see it at 27% and 28%. He also has the highest yards per route run against man coverage even including Olave and Shaheed, at 1.63. With Patrick Surtain out at CB for Denver and with him going to be the number one option at WR for Rattler, there is a chance here for a mini breakout game if he can extrapolate the results he has had on a smaller sample size.

Suggested Play
Bub Means o3.5 rec (+105)

TE Juwan Johnson

Both Olave and Shaheed are likely out in this one, and they both were also targeted often on the man defense that they would see frequently in this one from Denver (in man coverage 45% of the time, 2nd most in NFL). Johnson has seen the 3rd highest target% against man out of the Saints receiving options, and figures to take on a larger role with Olave and Shaheed out. The issue for Johnson is he has been pretty inefficient regardless of target share against man coverage, with only 0.90 YPRR and 0.15 TPRR. He also is not even being targeted deep when he is targeted, at just a 2.7 aDOT against man. This tells me that while he is running routes often (at 51.7% to be exact), he is not creating much separation at all. I think this is a spot where he gets 3/4 receptions but does not have many yards to show for it.

Suggested Play
Juwan Johnson u14.5 long rec (-115)
Negative Correlation Parlay (+563)
'O' 2.5 Rec
'U' 27.5 Rec yds

There is just far too much uncertainty here for me to side with the Saints, even at home. Their defense was gashed last week, and now are playing their 3rd game in 11 days. On top of that, the parts of the Saints defense that have struggled are also easily exploitable by the Broncos, including their issues tackling. What the Broncos do well offensively are what the Saints do poorly defensively. On top of that you have even more uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball with 2 top receivers out, and Rattler only making his 2nd career start. 

Prediction

Best Bet (Broncos -2.5 -115)
Lean (Over 36.5 -120)

Broncos 27 Saints 14