TNF Bills Vs Jets

QB Josh Allen 

Allen is coming off a brutal game completing just 9/30 passes (30%) against a Texans team that just allowed 21 points the the Patriots this week. The absence of Stefon Diggs is finally showing. Allen will be coming into this Week facing the Jets who have allowed opponents to score just 17 PPG ranking #6/32. The Jets have ran man coverage at the 7th HIGHEST rate this year running Cover 1 (33.1%) Cover 3 (24.7%) Cover 4 (21.7%). Josh Allen is 22/47 (46.8%) completion % against man but he has thrown 7 TD’s and 0 INT’ having a QB rate 109.8 which ranks #6/27 QB’s with 40+ Dropbacks and having a deep throw % of 17% which ranks #6/32 as well. This Jets man coverage is way more talented than what he has been going against. The Jets when in man have allowed the opposing QB to throw a combined 23/48 (47.9%) completion % while allowing just 1 passing TD. Not only that but they are pressuring the QB at a 47.5% rate run in man ranking #4/32 teams and when Allen is pressured against man it’s not very pretty completing 5/17 passes. The Jets as well a whole pressure the QB at a 39.8% rate which ranks #3/32 teams! Josh Allen has not handled pressure well at all this year completing 17/44 passes averaging 15.4 yards per completion. When QB’s have thrown 10+ yards depth of target on the Jets they have completed 21/44 passes (47.7%) for an average of 20.9 yards per completion. The Jets have allowed longest receptions of 34,40,22,29,27 through 5 weeks. This is while facing the Titans,Patriots and Broncos. Allen could have a day 

Suggested Pick 
‘O’ 0.5 INT -135 (SO DUE) 

RB James Cook 

Cook is dealing with a toe injury and must some practices this week but is expected to suit up for this one. Toe injuries are normally something you just let get healthy because it’s highly likely you could reaggravate. The Jets in Weeks 1/4 allowed 4.20 YPC but they are coming off a week where they faced Aaron Jones and the Vikings and held the them to 2.7 YPC. With his injury and possible signs of the Jets defense line figuring it out I’m not expecting Cook the put up much. The Jets also rank #23/32 teams in backfield target%. Last year though he went for 17 & 29 receiving yards having 4 & 3 receptions. The Jets pressure at the 3rd highest rate and Allen is targeting Cook 11.4% of the time when he is pressure when is tied for 2nd on the team. He has made those receptions count as well. In the 4 receptions Cook has caught when Allen is pressured he is averaging 16.25 YPC. 

Suggested Picks 
Pass 

WR Keon Coleman 

Coleman has ran 98/102 routes out of the wideout position and that is bad news today because he will be matched up against D.J Reed who ranks #1/100 CB’s this season! He has covered 146 Dropbacks and his guy has only been targeted 18x (13.0%) but has allowed just 6/18 targets to be caught! Not only that but he is only allowing 7.0 YPR which is good for a CB. Coleman is 3rd on the team in target % 11.9% but the Jets run Cover 1 at the 5th HIGHEST rate and Coleman is only getting targeted 4x in 23 routes ran catching 2/4 balls for 26 YPR. Reed is a defender who could get beat deep which the only concern here. Shakir could be out or limited to a snap count but last week he played without him and he has 1 reception on 5 targets for 49 yards. 

Suggested Picks 
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (Not out yet) 

TE Dalton Kincaid 

In Week 1 he just had 2 targets but since then he has had 4,5,7,6 targets including a 19.8% team target% which is tied #1. Not only that but the Jets run Cover 1 33.1% and Kincaid has a team high 21.6% target rate against that coverage. These wideout CB’s are nothing to play with so the only reliable target for Allen here is Kincaid. Kincaid lines up in the slot 50% of the time and inline 26.4%. 10/15 Kincaids reception have gone for -5/5 yards depth of target so in other words a ton of easy catches! Only thing is the Jets allow the 4th FEWEST to that depth of target and allow the FEWEST YPR when they catch it (5.00). They also allow the 2nd LOWEST catch rate when QB’s throw it for this depth of target (74.2%). Everybody is on over receptions and I honestly could see him not doing much today. Its concerning that Allen has virtually no reliable weapons on the outside but we can not forget Allen was 9/30 last week!

Suggested Picks 
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions +132

QB Aaron Rodgers

The Jets just fired their head coach so it will be interesting to see how A-rod and these boys bounce back. Today he will be facing the Bills and this defense has been very good ranking #11/32 in pass yds allowed (214.0) #8/32 on INT’s (5) #5/32 in pressure rate. These are all stats while playing QB’s like Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence. The Bills run zone coverage at the 7th HIGHEST rate running about everything. Rodgers against Zone is completing 65/103 attempts (63.1%) for 10.2 yards per completion. Rodgers has been getting pressured at a very low 26.1% rate. The Bills can cause havoc though and they are coming off a week against the Texans where they pressured 40.5% of Strouds Dropbacks. When Rodgers is under pressure he is completing just 15/35 attempts (42.9%) averaging 11.9 yards per completion. The Bills have played 2 teams very similar to the Jets in terms of QB Pressure rate. In those games this Bills pressured these 2 teams 42.2% of the time so I would not be shocked to see them get the Rodgers today. The Bills have been good at limiting the long ball allowing a completion of 34+ in just 1/5 games (24,21,24,26,67)

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 33.5 Long Comp -120

RB Breece Hall

Hall’s L2 weeks of play has been bad rushing a combined 19x for just 27 yds 1.4 YPC. The Jets inability to establish any run game presence has been one of the main reason for the lack of success the last couple weeks. Over the L2 weeks the Jets running attack has a good excuse as they faced the Titans and Broncos who have really good run defenses themselves ranking #5 & #6 in YPC allowed. Now today they FINALLY have a favorable matchup this Week facing the Bills who have gotten demolished on the ground allowing 5.22 YPC ranking #31/32 teams. Hall has ran out of the under center formation in 41/65 attempts and the Bills are shockingly very good against under center formation runs ranking #7/32 teams (3.50 YPC). Also Hall runs out of zone concept runs in 41/65 attempts as well and he is averaging 3.12 YPC but this Bills team yet against is shocklily very good against zone concept runs allowing 3.88 YPC ranking #12/32. I don’t like this matchup due to how the Jets use Hill in the rushing attack which just so happens to be the Bills strengths. One area the Bills do struggle at is allowing the HIGHEST target% to backfield receivers 22.6% but the only issue is the Bills run a ton of Zone and Hall target % goes to 17.1% against man down to 12.8% against Zone. Not only that but the Bills run Two high safety/Middle of field open rate at a 58.9% clip which is the 4th HIGHEST and Hall has a target % of 10% against that look.

Suggested Pick
‘U’ 59.5 Rush Yds -120

RB Braelon Allen

The 20 year old rookie has not disappointed Jets fan at all and he has a huge role on this team. As I said above in the Hall write up, The Bills who have gotten demolished on the ground allowing 5.22 YPC ranking #31/32 teams. Hall’s rushing attack is not the best against this team because the Bills strengths were what Hall does a ton. Allen on the other hand has ran out of the Man/Gap Concept 17/32 runs 53.1% and the Bills are allowing 5.47 YPC against man concept runs compared to 3.88 in Zone. Now with that being said teams facing the Bills are running 77/118 65.25% of runs against man concept which should benefit Allen here. Allen is averaging 4.18 YPC against man zone concept compared to Hall with 2.88. Allen’s rushing attempts line is at 8.5 at -120 and when getting 8+ attempts this year he has went on to have 55 & 34 rushing yards against the Patriots & Broncos who rank #20 & #6 on YPC allowed. The Jets are wanting to mix in the run game a ton here today which is something they have not been able to find the last couple weeks which is a huge reason for them not being scoring just 7 & 17 points. I look for Allen to play a bigger role today than he has been especially how Hall has been playing having just 27 yards in his last 19 carries!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 34.5 Rush Yds -115
ALT Rush Yds
40+ +125
50+ +240
60+/1+ TD +680

WR Garrett Wilson

Wilson had a breakout game last week despite the Jets scoring 17 points in London. Wilson went for 13 receptions on a INSANE 23 targets! Wilson has ran 61.78% of his routes in the wideout spot and he will be matched up against Rasul Douglas and according to PFF and this guy has covered 181 Dropbacks and his guy has gotten targeted 17x (9.3%). Last week he guarded Tank Dell,Cam Akers and Nico Collin’s allowing 5 receptions including a 67 yard reception by Nico Collins. Not only that but Wilson lines up in the slot 36.64% of the time and he will be guarded by Cam Lewis who has allowed an insane 39 targets in 162 coverages 24.07% while allowing 33/39 targets to be caught. Wilson ran in the slot just 19.6% though last week. The Bills run zone coverage at the 7th HIGHEST rate this season and Wilson has gotten targeted 25.7% against zone compared to 32.9% against man. The Bills also run two high safety/middle of field open a ridiculous 58.9% which is the 4th HIGHEST of any team. Against that Wilson has a 28% Target rate catching 16/28 targets having 9.3 YPC. The Bills also pressure at the 5th HIGHEST rate and when Rodgers is under pressure he goes to Wilson just 15.8% which is tied with 3 guys in 1st. I think Jets can dominate the clock and have some running success. Rodgers is just completing 39/67 passes to Wilson in 7 games (58.20%).

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Pass

WR Allen Lazard

Lazard has been targeted 8 & 9x last 2 games and that is a good sign coming into this one. Lazard has ran out of the slot 50% of the time but over the L2 weeks that has gone up to 61.7% while getting targeted 25.5% of the time. 14/18 targets have came from the slot over the last couple weeks and that is the reason for the huge spiked target rate. Lazard has a very favorable matchup in the slot facing Cam Lewis who has allowed an insane 39 targets in 162 coverages 24.07% while allowing 33/39 targets to be caught allowing 9.5 yards per reception. Tyler Conklin is questionable but I expect him to play. Conklin has ran 46.91% in his routes in the slot.

Suggested Picks
1+ TD +320
ALT Receptions 
4+ +126
5+ +250

WR Mike Williams

63/73 routes the last 2 weeks have been ran in the wideout 86% and that is not good news because he will be matched up against Christian Benford who has been ranked the top 8 CB’s the L2 seasons. He has covered 191 Dropbacks this year and his guy has been targeted just 15x (7.8%) while allowing 6 receptions to go for just 4.8 yards per reception. Williams is going to have a long night when he is covered by Benford. Williams has been targeted just 7.4% of the time this season but decreases the 6.4% when teams run zone coverage which is what the Bills run at the 7th HIGHEST rate. If Conklin is out it might help his production a little bit but not enough to scare me away on this number.

Suggested Pick
‘U’ 27.5 Rec Yds -110

TE Tyler Conklin

He is questionable but I expect him to play. Conklin has had 6,8,9 targets the L3 games having 93,17,55 receiving yards. Conklin has ran in the slot 46.91% this season and over the L3 games it has increased to 50.44%. In these 3 games though he has had a 12.1% Target share on 57 routes ran compared to 20% when he is in the wideout position but only running 10 routes. Over the L3 games Conklin is getting targeted 23% against Zone and just 9.4% against man. The Bills run the 7th MOST zone coverage and have ran it 82.7%,76.2%,73.8% L3 weeks. Also the Bills have the 5th HIGHEST pressure rate and Conklin is a guy who gets just a 13.2% Target rate when Rodgers is pressured. I expect him to have some success when in the slot but the Jets move around their receivers a ton leaving more of a balanced attack limiting huge games by 1 receiver. I’ll lean to his over receiving yards

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 26.5 Rec Yds -110

I know it’s hard to trust this Jets team but this just feels like a spot they should control the clock on the ground and the Bills have a terrible slot defender that Rodgers should be able to pick apart. This Bills team has over exceeded expectations without Diggs and now Khalil Shakir is questionable and I’m reading at best he would be on a snap count if he does play. Last week Allen was 9/30 without him and now they face a Jets defense that have excellent CB’s. Cook is injured as well. Just feels like a tough game for the Bills to come in and steal a W from a hungry Jets team. I think this one stays way under but all in all I expect the Jets to get the W!

Picks

Jets 23 Bills 17

Best Bet (Jets +3.5 -157)
Lean (Under 42.5 -125)