Week 12 NFL Game Guides

QB Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson has brought new life overall since being named the Steelers’ starting QB, coming in for Justin Fields. In his 4 games started this year, he has a 7.79 YPA, which is ranking 11th in the NFL. Despite the win vs Baltimore last week, Wilson’s performance did see a decline as he averaged just 6.1 YPA in that game. This is a bit concerning considering Baltimore has had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season. Against Cleveland, we can expect Wilson to see a lot of man coverage, with the Browns lined up in man on 37.2% of defensive snaps, which ranks the 4th most in the NFL. Despite a poor completion % against man coverage of 57.5%, Wilson’s output against man coverage has been one of the best in the NFL. He averages 10.75 YPA against man, which is the 2nd in the NFL only behind Jared Goff. His completion % also may not be as concerning as it would suggest, as an adjusted completion % that accounts of batted passes, drops, and throwaways has his % at 72.2. His production again man coverage comes primarily due to his success stretching defenses down the field, with a 22.5% deep-throw % as well as an 11.5 aDOT against man. The Browns have struggled against deep passes as well, allowing 12.7 yards per completion.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 34.5 Longest Pass Completions (-110)

RB Najee Harris

Najee Harris is not coming off a great game in terms of efficiency last week vs the Ravens, netting 63 yards on 18 carries. However, this was against an extremely stout Ravens rush defense that has not given up many yards on the ground to any team. Around the same time that Wilson started in place of Fields, Harris also began to see increased action himself, with 21 touches (receptions or carries) or more in all of Wilson’s starts. One weakness from Najee this season has been him having too many runs where little to no yardage is produced, as he has a 51.1% stuff rate as a RB that ranks 21st out 74 RBs in the NFL with 25 or more rush attempts. The Browns have been middle of the road in most rush stats defensively, including allowing 4.33 YPC, which ranks 14th in the NFL. However one thing they have been decent at is forcing stuffs, with a 47.1 stuff % defensively, which ranks 9th in the NFL. They have given up many explosive runs unfortunately, having a 7.7 explosive run rate (2nd highest in NFL), but Harris has been middle of the road with explosiveness as well (4.6 explosive run rate that ranks 33 out of 74 RBs). Like last week, this is not the best matchup efficiency wise, but with the weather potentially being poor, as well as Jaylen Warren likely still not being 100%, I think we can expect the Steelers to look to lean on Najee.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 16.5 Rush Attempts (-135)

WR George Pickens

After a week in which Pickens accounted for 37.5% of the Steelers’ targets against the Ravens, he now ranks 3rd in the entire league in seeing 29.2% of the total team targets. The Browns defense has been solid at preventing teams from dinking and dunking it down the field, with only a 58.1% completion percentage allowed when WRs are targeted, however they have been burned badly by deep passes when those passes are complete. Pickens is the guy who can take care of that, with a 13.3 aDOT over the last 4 weeks yet still with a 70.1% catch rate. He has 2.73 yards per route run, which is by far the highest on the team over the last 4 weeks. Against man coverage, which the Browns are in at the 4th highest rate in the NFL, Pickens has a 4.62 YPRR, and a 34.5% target share. While I expect an emphasis on the run from Pittsburgh in this game, look for Pickens to be the guy who can take the top off this Browns secondary.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

WR Mike Williams

Mike Williams played in his second game with the Steelers last week after being traded from the Jets. It does not appear he has been totally initiated into the Steelers offense yet, as he ran a route on only 36.6% of team dropbacks. With that in mind, he did see a bump from the previous game against Washington, and I expect him to become a notable part of this Steelers offense. He is similar to Pickens in that he is another high aDOT WR, at 13.3 so far this year. He should eventually fit in well to what Russell Wilson has been doing which is stretch the field. It is tough to expect a lot out of Williams yet, but he is definitely a player to keep an eye on just in case this the week the Steelers want to take off the training wheels.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Pat Freiermuth

The TE Pat Freiermuth is an example of a player who has seen a decline in action since Russell Wilson took over the starting role. Wilson likes to push the ball deep down the boundaries or check the ball down. Freiermuth primarily runs his routes at the 10-20 yard range of the field, which is an area that Wilson is targeting only around 25% of the time. With Wilson at the QB, he is only seeing 7.7% of the targets and is running a route on 63.5% of snaps. He also is seeing just 0.11 target per route run. The Browns are middle of the road in defending the TE position, as they give up an average of 48.1 yards per game to the position (16th in NFL). However, with the decline we’ve seen from Freiermuth as well as Darnell Washington starting to eat into his snaps, and also combined with the fact that I expect a lot of running the ball from Pittsburgh, this should be a solid fade situation.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston has been an extremely high volume QB since taking over as the Browns’ starting QB in place of the injured Deshaun Watson. He has thrown over 40 pass attempts in each start, and also has thrown for 334, 235, and 395 yards in each of those games. Much of this is due to the Browns’ struggles on the ground, and another part of this is simply due to the losing game scripts that the Browns have found themselves in in Winston’s starts. The Steelers line up with 1-high safety and a closed middle of the field at the highest rate in the NFL by far, at 71.6%. Jameis has had some of his best success against this exact coverage, with a 8.73 YPA, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Unfortunately for Jameis and the Browns, the Steelers have also been very effective in that coverage, and are giving up only a  61.1% completion percentage against, which is the 4th lowest in the NFL. They also have forced 11 INTs and surrendered just 9 TDs, which could be an issue considering Winston’s aggressiveness as a QB. This could be an interesting strength vs strength matchup in terms of actual performance, but assuming the Steelers have the lead for the majority of the game as a significant favorite, we should expect Jameis to throw the ball often, regardless of weather conditions.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 34.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

RB Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb had a surprisingly low rush share in the Browns’ last game against the Saints, with only 11 rush attempts and saw just 50% of backfield touches. What is more alarming for Chubb is the fact that he was actually outsnapped by Jerome Ford in the second half of that game at 19-9. This likely was due to game script and with Ford being a better receiving option, so while I do anticipate Chubb to see more action early, we also must remember that the Browns are sizeable underdogs and may be facing a similar situation yet again. On top of that, the Steelers boast a very solid rush defense. Pittsburgh is allowing just 3.97 YPC, which ranks 7th in the NFL. The Steelers defense also has a 45.5% Stuff-rate, which ranks 13th in the NFL defensively, and only surrendering 0.10 missed tackle per rush attempt, which ranks 5th best in the NFL. Chubb on the other hand is forcing just 0.11 missed tackle per attempt on his rushes, which ranks 55 out of 74 backs. With the likely losing game script and potential lost snaps to Jerome Ford, this is a fade spot.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 51.5 Rush Yards (-105)

WR Cedric Tillman

After the trade of Amari Cooper, Tillman saw about the biggest spike in usage that you can have in football. He went from barely playing at all to being one of Cleveland’s top WRs. Over the past 4 games (3 of those with Jameis as the QB), Tillman has a ran a route on 83.9% of snaps. Last week, Tillman was on the field for 98% of dropbacks. In terms of man and zone schemes, the Steelers are very multiple defensively. Tillman is a guy we can expect to get targeted when the Steelers are in man, as he has been targeted on 31.3% of his routes in man coverage and with Jameis Winston as the QB. However, the discrepancy of coverages from the Steelers lends me to believe that the Browns will need to utilize different receiving options in different situations rather than simply rely on one option to take over the game. In no game should that be as glaring as it will against the Steelers. While overall yardage is tough to predict as a result of that, one area to look at Tillman from a betting standpoint is in the red zone. He has seen a team-high 5 red zone targets over the past 4 games, and 2 red zone TDs. The Steelers are tough defensively in the red zone, but in my opinion the odds alone are worth a shot on Tillman in this spot.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+360)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy, like Tillman, is a player who has seen a significant increase in action as of late. He has been Jameis’ top option the last 2 weeks, and has 11 targets in each of the last 2 games, as well as 7 and 6 receptions in those games respectively. Jeudy has a target share of 21.6% over the last 4 games, but against the 1-high look that the Steelers will throw out on likely the majority of the snaps, he is getting 29.8% of targets, as well as 0.31 targets per route run which both lead the team. He is converting on these chances as well, with 12.71 yards per target, and 3.93 yards per route run. While some of this is an outlier due to an 89 yard TD reception against the Saints last week, he does have a 14.0 aDOT and with Jameis as a QB who loves to air the ball out. While the man-zone splits are even, the amount of 1-high the Steelers are in is significant to Jeudy, and this is a solid spot for him to take advantage of.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE David Njoku

Njoku, the Browns TE, comes into this Thursday night game high off a huge game last week vs the Steelers. Not only did he go for 81 yards, but he also converted all 9 of his targets from Winston in the game into receptions. While he is not the number one receiving option for Winston, with a 18.3 target share, he is not far behind them either and should get a good amount of action in this one, especially after earning some more trust and chemistry with Jameis in the previous game. The Steelers overall have been above average against the passing game with a YPA of 6.88, but the TE has been a position that has been able to beat them at times, with Pittsburgh allowing 5.1 receptions per game to TEs, which ranks 18th in the NFL. The aDOT is not there for Njoku, at only 6.3, but this is a spot we should see some receptions.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-120)

The nasty weather in the forecast could theoretically help the Browns. The issue I see here is simply that weather-independently speaking, the Browns will have a tough time running the ball against the Steelers based on what we have seen from them all year. The Browns passing game has found some answers, but also has not been nearly efficient enough behind somewhat of a boom or bust QB in Jameis Winston. If the weather is bad, that could stunt Pittsburgh a bit, but a heavy dose of Najee Harris early should be enough to open up some downfield shots late against a Browns secondary that can be susceptible to such. The Steelers are rolling, and quite frankly are just a much better team.

Best Bet: Over 36.5 (-110)
Lean Steelers -2.5 (-160)
Steelers 24 Browns 14

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QB Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes has had a more modest season statistically this year in comparison to previous years, at least by his standards. Still, he ranks 12th in the NFL in total passing yards with 2404 and a completion % of 69.5, which ranks 11th in the NFL. Last week against Buffalo was probably his worst game of the year, as he tossed 2 INTs and only threw for 196 yards. However, Carolina should offer an excellent bounceback spot for Mahomes. Carolina has really struggled getting pressure on opposing QBs, with a league low 24.2% pressure rate. When Mahomes has not been pressured, he has the best completion % in the league at 76.6%, while the Panthers are allowing 75.8% of passes to be completed when not getting after the QB, which is the 3rd highest in the NFL. The Panthers are in Cover 3 at the highest rate in the NFL, at 44.9% of their offensive snaps. Mahomes has been able to complete 71.1% of passes against Cover 3, which ranks 14th out of 42 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks against the coverage. Mahomes’ passing volume has gone up since the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, and this sets up for a nice comfortable outing for Mahomes. My only concern in this matchup is simply game script, as the Chiefs are solid favorites, so I will target the first half for Mahomes.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 122.5 1H Pass Yards (-120)

RB Isiah Pacheco / RB Kareem Hunt

It is tough to tell exactly what the Chiefs RB room is going to look like on Sunday afternoon. Isaiah Pacheco could potentially make his return after suffering a broken fibula the second week of the season. If Pacheco does go, this makes it difficult to determine rush share since he likely will not have a full workload, yet should eat into the snaps of Kareem Hunt. Hunt has not been particularly explosive since joining the Chiefs, as he brings in a 4.3% explosive run rate that ranks dead last among NFL RBs with at least 50 rush attempts. Pacheco certainly would be a boost in terms of explosiveness, and there are some favorable matchups here against a Panthers defense that has really struggled against the run, allowing 4.7 YPC to opposing RBs, which ranks 27th in the NFL. However, even then the Panthers defense has not allowed too many chunk plays, with only a 4.0% explosive run rate that ranks 24th in the NFL. The Chiefs should be in a positive game script here and the volume could be there, but it is just difficult to determine who will be toting the rock and which backs will be used in which spots.

Suggested Play:
Pass

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins has changed the dynamics of this Chiefs offense completely since being picked up by the team, as they have shifted back into their pass-first ways of years prior. However, he did not have a great game last week for Buffalo, only seeing 29 yards on 4 targets. What is interesting about Hopkins is despite his production, he actually isn’t even seeing that much action. He has ran a route on only 48.2% of dropbacks, and has a target share of 12.4%. Out of active WRs (not including the injured Rashee Rice), he does have by far the highest target per route run on the team at 0.22, meaning that he is being looked at when he is on the field. Against zone (which the Panthers are primarily in), Hopkins is seeing 2.26 yards per route run, and 0.24 targets per route run, which is slightly higher overall. I honestly think that a lot of the limitation that Hopkins has been on has been just due to him being relatively new to the offense. Look for him to take advantage of this matchup with the Panthers as volume starts to increase for DHop.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Xavier Worthy

Worthy is a player who has seen his usage increase as the season has progressed, even through the pick up of Hopkins. Early in the year, he was used as somewhat of a gadget player, garnering only targets on designed plays or even being used in the rushing game. As of late, however, this has shifted as he now has been the team’s leader in routes run even over Hopkins in the 4 games since that trade. Against zone defense, he is running a route on 71.0% of his snaps, which is 2nd on the team only behind Travis Kelce. With that in mind, he has done more damage this year against man coverage, and I do not see him as the ideal matchup for Mahomes to look at here necessarily. He is seeing just 0.15 targets per route run, and a team low 1.04 yards per route run against zone, and this is despite a fairly high 11.8 aDOT. What scares me about a full blown fade of Worthy however is how creative Andy Reid and his offense can be in utilizing him even if the matchup is not ideal on paper.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce is coming off one of the worst games in maybe his entire career on Sunday against Buffalo. He had an incredibly bad 8 yards on just 2 catches. In the game, he only had 0.31 yards per route run, which was his 2nd lowest of the year, and also wasn’t really being looked at often by Mahomes with only a 15.4% target rate per route in that game. Carolina, as earlier mentioned, lines up in Cover 3 on 44.9% of their defensive snaps, which is the most in the NFL. Kelce is absolutely feasted against Cover 3, seeing 35.4% of the team targets against it over the last 4 games (since the Hopkins trade), and this is including last week’s dud for Travis. The Panthers have been hit hard by tight ends all year, allowing 8.9 yards per target to the TE position, which ranks 3rd most in the NFL. I do not see one of the league’s best tight ends staying silent again in such a ripe bounceback spot. Look for a big game for Travis Kelce in this spot.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 62.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Bryce Young

Although it has been a rough year for the Panthers, they are coming into this game with their first taste of momentum in a while, as they were able to win the last 2 games before the bye week. This has also coincided with a change back to Bryce Young at QB in place of Andy Dalton. The Chiefs have been excellent defensively both against the run and the pass (6.73 YPA against which is 9th lowest in the NFL) this season, and Young is going to have a challenge on his hands. Coverage wise, Kansas City will give line up in man often. The Chiefs are in man coverage on 36.5% of their defensive snaps, which is the 7th highest rate in the NFL. This is not necessarily great news for Young, who has the 2nd lowest YPA in the NFL against man coverage this year, at just 4.37 (ranks 32 out of 33 QBs with minimum 50 dropbacks against man). To beat man it is crucial to be able to stretch the defense and be able to hit a few deep balls, and Young has not been able to do that, with just a 6.0% deep ball completion rate, which ranks 3rd lowest in the NFL. The Chiefs have been excellent at defending the deep ball as well, allowing a 10.6% deep ball completion rate that is the 13th best mark in the league.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 30.5 Long Pass Completion (-105)

RB Chuba Hubbard

Chuba Hubbard is coming off a highly impressive game in Germany before the bye week. In that game, he went for 169 total rush and receiving yards and got 32 touches (receptions and carries combined). Overall, Hubbard has had a nice season netting an average of 5.08 YPC, which ranks 9th in the NFL, and also averages 81.8 rush yards per game. He also is getting the ball on 84.6% of the team’s carries in the red zone. However in this matchup he runs into an absolute buzzsaw with the Chiefs defense. They are allowing only 3.61 YPC against them (3rd lowest in the NFL), and also have just a 2.1 explosive run rate against, which ranks as the lowest in the NFL. They really have made an effort to stop the team’s leading back this year, with no RB1 going for more than 60 yards against the Chiefs this. When you factor in the return of Jonathan Brooks, who may take a few touches away from Chuba, as well the likely game script working against the Panthers in general, I like for this to be a heavy regression spot.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 51.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR Xavier Legette

Xavier Legette is seeing a route run on 63.2% of snaps, and also is being targeted a good bit with a 14.0% target share, which ranks 1st on the Panthers team. He has not been incredibly efficient however, only averaging 1.19 yards per route. One thing to note from Legette however, is the fact that he is often used in the red zone, and has a team high in TDs at 4, and also a team high in end zone targets at 6. Legette is taking the majority of his snaps out wide at 64.0%, which is not great news considering the strength of the boundary CBs for Kansas City, and the fact that they are allowing only a 55.2% catch rate to outside WRs, which is the 5th lowest in the NFL, as well as 7.1 yards per target. Adam Thielen is making his return for Carolina in this game, which we will get to next, and this could play a role in the frequency of both targets and routes for Legette, as well as how Legette is lined up. Regardless of that, I still think Legette’s TDs are an underrated market as I expect him to play a role in the red zone.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+430)

WR Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen was expected to be the Panthers’ top option at WR before the year began, and it certainly looked to be headed in that direction early in the year before an injury he suffered that has sidelined him since Week 3. Thielen in the games he has played has been running a route on a team high 65.4% of snaps, while also gaining 1.56 yards per route run. It is tough to say how much action Thielen will get in his first game back, but it is worth noting that he was running 71.4% of his snaps in the slot, which is significant because this has been the area of the field that the Chiefs defense has been the most vulnerable against. The Chiefs are allowing 51.8% of catches against them by WRs to come from slot WRs, which is the highest share in the NFL. This is something to keep an eye on for sure, but it is simply tough to pull the trigger on anything for Thielen considering this is first game back in some time. In coming weeks Thielen could be a notable player to take a look at, but it is hard to know for sure whether that will take effect immediately against the Chiefs.

Suggested Play: 
Pass

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

Ja’Tavion Sanders must come into this matchup feeling good, as he was on the field for a season high 89.3% of his dropbacks in the Panthers’ last game in Germany before the bye week. He has good production when the ball has been thrown his way this year, with an 81.3% catch rate that leads the Panthers among all pass catching WRs or TEs.  He also ranks 3rd on the Panthers in yards per route run with 1.41. The issue here is that Sanders may not see the same amount of volume this week as there has been an overlap in his production with the absence of Tommy Tremble, who will make his return this week. TEs are seeing good action against the Chiefs, getting 29.9% of all receptions against them. This makes for an ok matchup, but the issue is figuring out who will be doing the damage.

Suggested Play:
Pass

The Panthers have to be feeling much better after an awful start to the season in seeing some life out of their young QB in Bryce Young as of late, but facing the Chiefs fresh off a loss is a brutal ask for this team, which really has nothing it can do defensively to contain the weapons of the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense remains one of the most dominant units in the game. I expect to see the Chiefs take an early lead and suffocate the Panthers away in this one 

Best Bet: Chiefs -10.5 -110
Lean: Over 43.5 -125
Chiefs 31 Panthers 14

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QB Sam Darnold

Darnold is averaging 238.7 passing yards per game, 8.15 YPA and has thrown 19 TDs. He faces a Bears defense that is allowing 213.7 passing yards per game, 10^th lowest. They have also only allowed 7 passing TDs, tied for lowest in the NFL. The Bears have the 6^th highest pressure rate over expected. When Darnold is pressured, he averages 5.8 YPA and has a QB rating of 67.3. That’s down from 8.87 YPA and 110.1 QB rating in a clean pocket. The Bears play the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.2%), and the 8^th highest rate of zone (73%). Against single-high, Darnold has a positive split averaging 9.49 YPA. Against zone, he has a slightly negative split averaging 7.99 YPA. Darnold is coming off a game against the Titans, who have allowed the fewest passing yards per game, and was able to throw for 246 passing yards. Despite this being another challenge, Darnold has been consistent and has thrown for over 236.5 passing yards in 7 of 10 games this season.

Suggested Pick
“O” 236.5 Pass Yds (-115)

RB Aaron Jones

Jones is averaging 69.2 rushing yards per game, 4.41 YPC and has rushed for 2 TDs. He’s also added 26.2 receiving yards per game. He faces a Bears defense that allows the 7^th most yards per carry (4.79) and the 9^th fewest receiving yards to opposing RBs (29.3 YPG). The Bears struggle more against man/gap run concepts. Allowing 5.06 YPC and a 55% success rate. That compares to 4.44 YPC and allowing a 46.3% success rate against zone concepts. Jones on the other hand has more success in zone concepts. He’s ran out of this concept on 56.1% of his attempts, averaging 4.66 YPC and has a 54.5% success rate. That compares to 4.09 YPC and only a 46.4% success rate in man/gap concepts. After seeing a 76%+ snap share in 3 straight weeks, he’s been back down to mid-50% in the past 2 weeks, with Cam Akers getting more involvement.

Suggested Pick
“O” 81.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-115)
100+ Rush+Rec Yds (+175)

WR Justin Jefferson

Jefferson is averaging 91.2 receiving yards per game, 2.91 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. The Bears are allowing the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. The Bears play the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.2%), and the 8^th highest rate of zone (73%). Against single-high, JJetta averages an insane 4.13 YPRR and has been targeted on 31% of his routes. Against zone, he has negative splits averaging 2.67 YPRR and 26% TPRR. Jefferson has lined up out wide on 70% of his routes. The Bears allow the 11^th fewest YPRR against wide alignment. Jefferson’s current receiving line is 80.5 yards, which he’s surpassed in 80% of games this season. Despite this not being the best matchup, I’m inclined on taking the over for one of the best WRs in this league.

Suggested Pick
“O” 80.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Jordan Addison

Addison is averaging 44.9 receiving yards per game, 1.65 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. He faces a Bears defense that has allowed the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. The Bears play the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.2%), and the 8^th highest rate of zone (73%). Against single-high, Addison averages 1.34 YPRR and 18% TPRR, both negative splits. Against zone, Addison averages 1.80 YPRR and 20% TPRR, both positive splits. Addison splits his time between out wide and in the slot, at 65.9% and 34.1% rates respectively. The Bears allow the 11^th highest target share to out wide and the 13^th lowest target share to the slot. Addison has been targeted 12 times on 20+ yards down field, only 2 behind Jefferson, but has only surpassed 3 receptions once this season. I like a reverse correlation play for him.

Suggested Pick
“U” 3.5 Rec (-132)
“O” 38.5 Rec Yds (-114)
Reverse Correlation (+500)

TE TJ Hockenson

Hockenson will play in his 4^th game of the season after ramping up post ACL injury. He’s had a 45%, 46% and 48% snap share in his first 3 games, compared to his 81.6% snap share last season, outside of the game he was injured. He’ll face a Bears defense that has allowed the 12^th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. The Bears play the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.2%). Last season, with a larger sample size, Hockenson averaged 1.99 YPRR against single-high, compared to 2.04 YPRR against two-high. He has lined up in the slot on 36.8% of his routes, and inline on 47.1% of his routes. CHI allows the 13^th lowest target share to the slot and the 9^th highest target share to inline.

Suggested Pick
“O” 36.5 Rec Yds (-115)

QB Caleb Williams

Caleb is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, 6.20 YPA and has thrown 9 TDs this season. He’s also averaged 30.6 rush yards per game. The Vikings allow the 5^th most passing yards per game to QB. Minnesota has the 5^th highest pressure rate over expected. When Caleb is pressured, he averages 4.40 YPA and has a QB rating of 44.4. He’s also scrambled 24 times for 182 yards. That compares to 6.73 YPA, a 93.3 QB rating and 53 scramble yards when operating from a clean pocket. They play two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.0%) and allow the lowest fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also run zone at the 4^th highest rate (77.2%). Against two-high, Caleb averages 5.99 YPA and has a QB rating of 86.8. Against zone, he averages 6.44 YPA and has a QB rating of 80.9. Despite the Vikings allowing the least rushing yards per game to QB, they have yet to play QB that scrambles, outside of Daniel Jones week 1, who was coming off a leg injury.

Suggested Pick
“O” 21.5 Rush Yds (-115)
“U” 201.5 Pass Yds (-114)

RB D’Andre Swift

Since week 4, Swift is averaging 81 rush yards per game. In that time, he’s averaging 4.81 YPC and has rushed for 5 TDs. He’s had 14+ attempts in 7 straight games. However, Swift saw his lowest snap share since week 3 last week (54.4%), as Roschon has been more involved. Roschon has also taken 8 of 15 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line. Swift has not been utilized as much in short yardage. He’ll face a Vikings team that is allowing the 2^nd fewest YPC (3.58). They have also allowed the 2^nd fewest rushing TDs (4). They are specifically strong against man/gap run concepts. They allow only 2.56 YPC, the lowest in the league. That compares to 4.4 YPC against zone concepts. Swift has seen 56.1% of his attempts in man/gap concepts and has been more efficient averaging 4.59 YPC. This is a matchup I’d avoid Swift in a tough matchup and possibly seeing a smaller role going forward.

Suggested Pick
“U” 59.5 Rush Yds (-120)

WR Rome Odunze

Odunze leads the Bears in receiving, averaging 47.9 yards per game, 1.54 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. In the 4 games post bye, he is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 27.3%. Prior to the bye, his 1^st-read rate was only 18%. Looking at the matchup, the Vikings allow the 3^rd most receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Vikings have the 2^nd highest blitz rate in the league (38.8%). Against the blitz, Odunze leads the Bears with 1.90 YPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 26.3%. The Vikings run two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.0%) and allow the lowest fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also run zone at the 4^th highest rate (77.2%). Odunze averages 1.31 YPRR against two-high, 3^rd on the team. Against zone, he averages 1.76 YPRR, #1 on the Bears. Last week, which was the first week with new OC Thomas Brown, Odunze had his highest slot rate of the season, running 47.1% of his routes from here. The Vikings allow the 17^th highest target share and the 12^th most YPRR against the slot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 41.5 Rec Yds (-113)
50+ Rec Yds (+145)
60+ Rec Yds (+230)

WR DJ Moore

Moore is averaging 46 receiving yards per game, 1.26 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. The Vikings allow the 3^rd most receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Vikings have the 2^nd highest blitz rate in the league (38.8%). Against the blitz, Moore averages 1.42 YPRR, 2^nd on the Bears behind Odunze. The Vikings run two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.0%) and allow the lowest fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also run zone at the 4^th highest rate (77.2%). Against two-high, DJ leads the Bears in YPRR (1.56) and has a 27.6% 1^st-read rate. Against zone, Moore averages 1.30 YPRR and leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 28.8%. DJ has lined up out wide on 73.9% of his routes this season. The Vikings allow 2.12 YPRR against wide alignment, 10^th highest in the NFL.

Suggested Pick
“U” 47.5 Rec Yds (-114)

TE Cole Kmet

Kmet is averaging 35.8 receiving yards per game, 1.49 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He’ll face a Vikings defense that allows the 13^th least receiving yards to opposing TEs. The Vikings have the 2^nd highest blitz rate in the league (38.8%). Against the blitz, Kmet averages 1.31 YPRR and has been targeted on 12% of his routes. The Vikings run two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.0%) and allow the lowest fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also run zone at the 4^th highest rate (77.2%). Against two-high, Kmet averages 1.52 YPRR and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. Against zone, Kmet averages 1.68 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. Not a great matchup, but his line is only 23.5 yards.

Suggested Pick
“O” 23.5 Rec Yds (-120)

Both teams’ defenses have been elite, with the Vikings allowing the 2^nd fewest points and the Bears allowing the 7^th fewest points. In a divisional rivalry where they know each other’s tendencies, I expect this to be a low scoring affair. I expect the Vikings to come out on top as the better team, but I expect the Bears to make it close to the end. I’ll take the underdog with the points.

Best Bet (Under 39.5 -115)
Lean (Bears +3.5)
Bears 17 Vikings 20

QB Bo Nix

Bo Nix is positioned for a strong showing against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that struggles to generate pressure. Nix’s performance under pressure has been shaky, with a passer rating of 65.6 compared to 88.6 in a clean pocket. However, the Raiders rank 24th in PFF pass rush grading and 26th in pressure rate, which should allow Nix plenty of time to operate effectively. While the Raiders rank 11th in passing yards allowed per game (219.2), they are vulnerable in the red zone, surrendering 1.80 passing touchdowns per game, the 8th highest in the league. Their inability to force turnovers is another weakness, with just five interceptions on the season and the 7th lowest turnover-worthy throw rate forced (1.6%). Las Vegas limits big plays well, allowing the 3rd lowest deep throw rate (7.6%), largely due to their reliance on two-high safety coverages over 50% of the time. However, their defense struggles significantly after the catch, allowing the 3rd highest YAC percentage (56%). This opens the door for Nix to exploit short and intermediate throws, letting his playmakers generate yards after the catch. If Denver emphasizes quick, accurate passing, this could be a highly productive matchup for Nix, particularly in moving the ball methodically and converting in the red zone.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -129
‘O’ 20.5 Pass Completions -110

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams reclaimed a significant role in Denver’s backfield last week, leading the rotation over Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime. Williams totaled 9 carries for 59 rushing yards and a touchdown, adding 4 catches for 28 yards, and out snapped Estime 12 to 7 as a rusher and 20 to 7 as a receiver. Las Vegas has a solid run defense, ranking 6th in PFF’s run defense grading, though they allow the 13th most rushing yards per game—likely due to game flow. They rank middle of the pack in explosive run rate allowed and yards per carry but excel in limiting runs at the line of scrimmage with the 8th-best stuff rate (47.5%). Head coach Sean Payton acknowledged the challenge of managing the backfield workload, stating it’s difficult to balance touches among the three backs. While Williams showed effectiveness last week, uncertainty in workload and a tough defensive matchup make it hard to lean confidently into his rushing line.A notable opportunity for Williams lies in the passing game. The  Raiders allow the 9th most receptions to running backs (5.0 per game), and Williams' receiving role appears more stable. His receptions could offer more value in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions -120

RB Audric Estime

Audric Estime saw his role reduced last week, taking a backseat to Javonte Williams after rushing 14 times for 53 yards the previous game. While it’s possible Denver shifts back to Estime this week, there’s no clear indication of how the backfield rotation will play out. Estime’s rushing line is set at 24.5 yards with a carry line at 5.5, both reasonable but highly dependent on his role. Without clarity on his workload, betting on his production feels risky. If receiving lines for Estime become available, there may be an opportunity to fade him, as his role in the passing game has been minimal.

Suggested Picks
PASS (potentially fade receiving lines if become available)

WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton has been a consistent focal point of the Broncos’ offense, with at least 6 receptions, 8 targets, and 70+ yards in each of his last four games. His 25%+ target share over that span highlights his reliability, even though he failed to score last week.

The Raiders present a challenging matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game (119.2) and the 28th-lowest aDOT (6.9). However, they’ve struggled in other areas, giving up the 9th-highest yards after catch per reception and the 7th-most passing touchdowns (18). Sutton’s recent usage and production make him hard to overlook, especially with a favorable receptions line at 4.5. Given his volume, he’s a strong candidate to clear that mark, even in a tougher matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -129
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +175

WR Devaughn Vele

Devaughn Vele has quietly become a more involved part of the Broncos’ offense, seeing his snap share rise to an average of 67% over the past two games while earning 4+ targets in both contests. This increased usage coincides with a potential breakout opportunity against a Raiders defense that has struggled to defend the slot. Vele, who operates out of the slot on 72.6% of his routes, faces a unit that allows the 5th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (87.7). Additionally, the Raiders rank among the league’s worst in both yards per route run and yards per reception allowed to slot receivers, making them a favorable matchup for a player like Vele who can exploit openings in the middle of the field. With Denver leaning on its passing game more in recent weeks and Vele's snap and target share increasing, this looks like an ideal spot for the slot receiver to make an impact. While his overall role in the offense limits his ceiling, the favorable matchup gives him a real chance to deliver sneaky production in Week 12.

Suggested Picks
40+ Rec Yds (+125)
50+ Rec Yds (+210)
50+ rec Yds/1+ TD (+575)

TE Adam Trautman/Lucas Krull

I covered them last week and I still don’t know… No lines available yet for either of these guys. Trautman is the primary blocker and Krull holds the more vertical ceiling. Neither are likely plays for me unless we get some news of one being out.

Suggested Picks
PASS

QB Garner Minshew II
Gardner Minshew has had an up-and-down season, often struggling to string together consistent performances. He has thrown for under 220 yards in six of his last seven games, including a prior matchup against Denver’s defense. The Broncos allow the ninth fewest passing yards per game (211) and excel in man coverage, which they use at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. Denver’s secondary makes life difficult for quarterbacks, allowing just the 26th highest average depth of target (7.0) and earning a seventh-best coverage grade from PFF. They also create pressure, grading out as the 9th best pass rush. Adding to the concern is Minshew’s tendency to get pulled from games, which has happened in four of his last seven outings, including the earlier game against Denver. While Minshew posted a strong performance last week with 285 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, it’s hard to trust him in this matchup against a disciplined Denver defense, especially with the possibility of another early exit.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions -146
‘U’ 216.5 Passing Yards -115

RB Alexander Mattison/Zamir White

Alexander Mattison and Zamir White have shared backfield duties for much of the season, but both are doubtful for this matchup against Denver. Mattison appears unlikely to play after missing practice entirely, while White has a slightly better chance of suiting up following a limited session on Friday. Even if either is active, their usage could be limited, leaving Ameer Abdullah as the likely lead back for Las Vegas. The matchup itself is a challenging one. Denver has been stout against the run, allowing the eighth fewest rushing yards per game (80.5) and ranking fifth in PFF’s run defense grading. Whether Mattison, White, or Abdullah leads the backfield, efficiency and volume will likely be hard to come by against this Broncos defense.

Suggested Picks
PASS (no lines yet for either)

RB Ameer Abdullah

If Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are both out, Ameer Abdullah is expected to take on the lead back role for the Raiders. His rushing yardage line has opened between 33.5 and 35.5, a modest total for a potential primary back. Notably, Abdullah managed 42 yards on just five carries against this Denver team earlier in the season. However, the matchup remains challenging. Denver ranks second in the league in stuff percentage and allows the eighth lowest explosive run rate, making it difficult to find consistent running lanes. While Abdullah boasts the highest yards per attempt (4.8) among the Raiders' backs, his yards after contact per attempt is the lowest (1.94), indicating limited ability to break tackles against a stout defense. With a low rushing line like this, volume alone could make the over appealing, but uncertainty surrounding Abdullah's workload complicates the projection. Waiting for news on Mattison and White, as well as a possible rushing attempts line, may provide better clarity.

Suggested Picks
Consider rushing attempts when it opens and injury news is settled

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers has been a reliable option in the Raiders’ offense, showcasing steady production week after week. He’s recorded between 45 and 65 receiving yards in 6 of 10 games this season, with his role as the WR1 cemented by consistent volume—seeing 6+ targets in each of his last 6 outings. This level of opportunity keeps Meyers in play as a dependable contributor, but this week’s matchup against the Broncos poses challenges. Denver’s defense has been particularly stingy against outside wide receivers, where Meyers lines up 62.2% of the time. The Broncos allow the 30th-lowest yards per reception and yards after the catch per reception to opposing outside receivers, effectively limiting explosive plays and yards after contact. This creates a situation where Meyers may struggle to post significant yardage totals, especially if he’s unable to generate separation or capitalize on deep targets. That said, Meyers’ consistent target volume could make his receptions prop a more attractive option. In a game where big plays might be hard to come by, he could still rack up catches through shorter, intermediate routes. If you’re looking to back Meyers in this matchup, betting on his receptions rather than yardage would be the sharper play given the Broncos’ defensive strengths.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 54.5 Receiving Yards -115

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker primarily lines up on the outside (73.6%), making this a difficult matchup against a Denver defense that excels at limiting production from outside wide receivers. Denver allows the 30th-lowest yards after catch per reception, further capping Tucker’s potential impact. Although Tucker sees plenty of snaps, his production has been minimal—he hasn’t surpassed 3 receptions in any of his last 6 games and has only cleared his receiving yards line twice in that span. With a modest 10.2 aDOT, he’s not a deep threat, and his YAC opportunities are limited against this defense. As a secondary option in the Raiders’ passing game, there’s little to like in this matchup, making Tucker a low-upside play this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 26.5 Receiving Yards -110

TE Brock Bowers

Bowers has really been the true WR1 in this offense, especially after coming off a 16 target, 13 reception game this past week. He has 5+ receptions in each of the last 6 weeks. He has 45+ receiving yards in each of his L6 as well. The matchup isn’t great for Brock, as DEN allows the 10th fewest receiving yards to opposing TE’s this season, however they allow the 14th most receptions per game. Either way, Bowers is the primary target in this offense and his lines are still very reasonable. Despite the receptions looking more appealing from a matchup perspective, Bowers owns the highest yards per route run of any LV pass catcher. Of all qualified TE’s, Bowers ranks second to only Kittle in yards per route run. For that reason alone, I’d lean yardage over receptions despite the matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 59.5 Receiving Yards -110

The Broncos have been a good team of late and Nix has really turned his season around after a rough start. This DEN defense is legit and I can easily see a world where Minshew really struggles, especially without his two lead backs. LV’s defense is underrated this season and tough for even a hot Broncos offense. I think we see a grind in this one that’s messy. The under looks like the bet to take, but if one team lays an egg, it’ll likely be the Raiders in what may possibly be Mishew’s last start.

Best Bet (Under 41.5 Points -117)
Lean (Broncos -5.5 -110)
Broncos 23, Raiders 14

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy is averaging 261.3 passing yards per game, 8.54 YPA and has thrown 13 TDs. The Packers allow the 14^th least passing yards per game. He’ll face a defense that has blitzed at the 5^th lowest rate in the league (19.2%). Despite limited blitzes, they have the 14^th highest pressure rate over expected. Purdy averages 9.27 YPA in a clean pocket, compared to 6.75 YPA under pressure. They run zone coverage 71.8% of the time, 10^th highest frequency in the league. They have a balanced single-high vs two-high scheme, running them at 53.9% and 46.1% rates respectively. Against zone coverage, Purdy averages 9.5 YPA, which is a positive split. His current passing line is set at 235.5, which he’s been over in 70% of games this season.

Suggested Pick
“O” 235.5 Pass Yds (-114)
250+ Pass Yds (+130)
275+ Pass Yds (+240)

RB Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey is averaging 59 rush yards and 47.5 receiving yards in 2 games this season. He’s averaged 3.69 YPC, down from 5.36 YPC last season. It may take him some time to get back into form, but his receiving usage has looked promising. The Packers are allowing the 15^th least YPC (4.36), but the 11^th most receiving yards to opposing RBs. McCaffrey has run a route on 71.4% of his team’s drop backs and has averaged 1.73 YPRR and 22% TPRR. The Packers have allowed the 13^th highest target share to the backfield (16.9%). They run zone coverage 71.8% of the time, 10^th highest frequency in the league. Looking at 2023 since it provides us with a larger sample size, McCaffrey averaged 1.26 YPRR and was targeted on 18% of his routes against zone. That compares to 2.29 YPRR and 27% TPRR against man. Negative split scheme wise.

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo is averaging 54.4 receiving yards per game, 2.06 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 21% of his routes. He commands a 1^st-read rate of 24.2%, 2^nd on the team behind Jauan. Deebo has been utilized as the underneath guy, with the lowest aDOT out of the 49ers starting receivers (8.3). He’s averaging 7.85 yards after catch per reception. This is down from last season, where he averaged 8.75 YAC/reception. He’ll face a Packers defense that allows the 10^th least receiving yards to WR. The Packers have blitzed at the 5^th lowest rate in the league (19.2%). Deebo averages 2.20 YPRR and commands a 23.5% 1^st-read rate when the defense does not blitz. Since Aiyuk has been ruled out for the season, Deebo has run 61.8% of his routes from out wide and 33.7% from the slot. The Packers allow the 3^rd lowest target share to out wide (35.5%) and the 3^rd highest target share to the slot (37.2%).

Suggested Pick
“U” 47.5 Rec Yds (-114)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan has 93 and 91 receiving yards in the past 2 weeks since taking on a full-time role, playing 91% and 95% of respective snaps. He averages an elite 2.84 YPRR and leads the team in 1^st-read rate (28.3%). He’ll face a Packers defense that allows the 10^th least receiving yards to WR. The Packers have blitzed at the 5^th lowest rate in the league (19.2%). Jauan averages 3.34 YPRR and commands a 29.2% 1^st-read rate when the defense does not blitz. The Packers run zone coverage 71.8% of the time, 10^th highest frequency in the league. Against zone coverage, Jauan averages 3.28 YPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 29.3%. Since Aiyuk has been ruled out for the season, Jauan has run 64.7% of his routes from out wide and 35.3% from the slot. The Packers allow the 3^rd lowest target share to out wide (35.5%) and the 3^rd highest target share to the slot (37.2%). The 49ers have been rotating receivers in and out of the slot, so there’s no clear winner and loser based on this statistic. Jauan is an extremely talented WR that has been elite when given the opportunity. I’ll continue to play him until he gives me a reason not against it.

Suggested Pick
“O” 55.5 Rec Yds (-109)
70+ Rec Yds (+200)
80+ Rec Yds (+310)
90+ Rec Yds (+450)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle is averaging 70 receiving yards per game, 2.57 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. The Packers are allowing the 11^th most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. he Packers run zone coverage 71.8% of the time, 10^th highest frequency in the league. Kittle is averaging 2.43 YPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 21.2% against zone coverage. The Packers have blitzed at the 5^th lowest rate in the league (19.2%). George averages 2.51 YPRR and commands a 25% 1^st-read rate when the defense does not blitz. Since Aiyuk has been ruled out for the season, Kittle has lined up inline 60.8% of his routes and 33.3% from the slot. The Packers allow the 3^rd highest target share to the slot (37.2%) and the 8^th lowest target share to inline (10.5%).

Suggested Pick
50+ Rec Yds (-114)
60+ Rec Yds (+175)
70+ Rec Yds (+270)

QB Jordan Love

Love is averaging 260.1 passing yards per game, 8.10 YPA and has thrown 16 TDs. The 49ers are allowing the 7^th fewest passing yards to opposing QBs. San Francisco has blitzed at the 2^nd lowest rate in the NFL (16.7%). When Jordan is not blitzed, he averages 8.67 YPA and a QB rating of 105. Those are positive splits compared to being blitzed, where he averages 6.57 YPA and a QB rating of 52.1. Looking at the 49ers scheme, they have a balanced approach. They run zone 68.5% of the time (15^th highest) and run single-high 52.9% of the time (20^th highest). One interesting aspect is that Love has played much better at home. He’s averaging 285 passing yards per game at home, compared to 235.3 passing yards away this season. The same trend occurred last season, where he had a 268.9 to 224.9 passing yard home-away split.

Suggested Pick
“O” 247.5 Pass Yds (-114)

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is averaging 83.8 rushing yards per game on 4.76 YPC and has rushed for 4 TDs. He’s also added 18.6 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a 49ers defense that allows the 9^th fewest YPC (4.25) but the 8^th most rushing TDs (13). They allow 3.77 YPC against zone run concepts (6^th lowest) and 4.28 YPC against man/gap run concepts (11^th lowest). Jacobs’ zone and man/gap concept frequency has been split right around 50-50. He’s had slightly more success in man/gap concepts, with a 53.9% success rate, compared to a 50% success rate in zone concepts. 83 of Jacobs’ attempts have come out of shotgun, where he’s averaging 5.28 YPC. 56 attempts have come from the QB under-center, where he averages a lower 3.77 YPC. The 49ers allow 4.79 YPC out of shotgun (13^th least) and 3.66 YPC under-center (9^th least). The 49ers do however allow the 9^th most receiving yards to RB, but Jacobs’ receiving lines feel sharp.

Suggested Pick
“U” 70.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Anytime TD (-125)

WR Christian Watson

Christian Watson came alive last week with 150 receiving yards. He has been inconsistent, averaging 42.6 receiving yards per game, 2.68 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He has seen a 1^st-read rate of 13.8%, 4^th amongst Packers WRs. He’ll face a 49ers defense allowing the 12^th least receiving yards to WR. San Francisco has blitzed at the 2^nd lowest rate in the NFL (16.7%). When not blitzed, Watson averages 2.98 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. Looking at the 49ers scheme, they have a balanced approach. They run zone 68.5% of the time (15^th highest) and run single-high 52.9% of the time (20^th highest). Watson has lined up out wide on 71.3% of his routes, and in the slot on 27.3% of his routes. The 49ers allow the 14^th highest target share to out wide (41.1%) and the 9^th lowest target share to the slot (30.4%). Another interesting aspect of the 49ers pass defense is that they force the QB to run through their progressions. They allow the 2^nd fewest YPRR to the 1^st-read. Watson has the lowest 1^st-read rate out of the top 4 GB WRs, which may not necessarily be a bad thing in this matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 40.5 Rec Yds (-113)

WR Jayden Reed

Reed leads the team in receiving, averaging 64.3 yards per game and 2.80 YPRR. He’ll face a 49ers defense allowing the 12^th least receiving yards to WR. San Francisco has blitzed at the 2^nd lowest rate in the NFL (16.7%). When not blitzed, Reed averages 3.13 YPRR and leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 24%. Looking at the 49ers scheme, they have a balanced approach. They run zone 68.5% of the time (15^th highest) and run single-high 52.9% of the time (20^th highest). I don’t see a reason to look further into these splits considering the balanced defensive approach. Reed has lined up in the slot on 80% of his routes and out wide on 14.8% of his routes. The 49ers allow the 14^th highest target share to out wide (41.1%) and the 9^th lowest target share to the slot (30.4%). Another interesting aspect of the 49ers pass defense is that they force the QB to run through their progressions. They allow the 2^nd fewest YPRR to the 1^st-read. Reed is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 21.5%.

Suggested Pick
“U” 50.5 Rec Yds (-114)

WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs averages 47.7 receiving yards per game, 1.82 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He’ll face a 49ers defense allowing the 12^th least receiving yards to WR. San Francisco has blitzed at the 2^nd lowest rate in the NFL (16.7%). When not blitzed, Doubs averages 1.61 YPRR and is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 20.7%. Looking at the 49ers scheme, they have a balanced approach. They run zone 68.5% of the time (15^th highest) and run single-high 52.9% of the time (20^th highest). I don’t see a reason to look further into these splits considering the balanced defensive approach.  Doubs has lined up out wide on 86.4% of his routes and in the slot on 13.6% of his routes. The 49ers allow the 14^th highest target share to out wide (41.1%) and the 9^th lowest target share to the slot (30.4%). Another interesting aspect of the 49ers pass defense is that they force the QB to run through their progressions. They allow the 2^nd fewest YPRR to the 1^st-read. Doubs is 1^st on the team in 1^st-read rate at 22.3%.

Suggested Pick
“O” 41.5 Rec Yds (-110)

TE Tucker Kraft

Kraft averages 37.6 receiving yards per game, 1.61 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He’ll face a 49ers defense that’s allowing the 4^th least receiving yards to TE. San Francisco has blitzed at the 2^nd lowest rate in the NFL (16.7%). When not blitzed, Kraft averages 1.78 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. Looking at the 49ers scheme, they have a balanced approach. They run zone 68.5% of the time (15^th highest) and run single-high 52.9% of the time (20^th highest). I don’t see a reason to look further into these splits considering the balanced defensive approach. Kraft has lined up inline on 56.7% of his routes and in the slot 31.8% of his routes. The 49ers allow the 18^th highest target share to inline (11.4%) and the 9^th lowest target share to the slot (30.4%).

Suggested Pick
“U” 28.5 Rec Yds (-114)

Both teams have high powered offenses, with the 49ers and Packers ranking 8^th and 9^th in points respectively. They have been efficient, averaging the 2^nd and 4^th most yards per play respectively. I’m seeing a lot of bullish matchups from individual players, so to align with that, points should be plentiful. I’ll also take the 49ers as underdogs as I think they are a little bit undervalued in this situation. They are only 5-5 but should have a better record than that in my opinion.

Best Bet (Over 46.5)
Lean (49ers +3)
49ers 27 Packers 23

QB Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray has been in strong form recently, entering the MVP conversation despite a change in his offensive approach. Over the past three weeks, his passing yards have dropped to an average of ~150 per game (down from 231 through the first seven weeks), along with a decline in yards per attempt. However, his yards after catch percentage has climbed from 48% through the first eight weeks to 65% over the last two, indicating a shift to shorter passes that allow his receivers to create yards after the catch. Seattle’s defense offers a mixed matchup. They rank 17th in passing yards allowed per game (227), 19th in yards per attempt (7.01), and allow the 11th highest completion percentage, leaving them vulnerable to Arizona’s short passing game. However, they limit big plays well, allowing the 28th lowest deep throw percentage (8.3%), which may constrain Murray’s ability to push the ball downfield. This could be a good opportunity for Murray to reignite his rushing game. Seattle’s 12th-best coverage unit per PFF may lead to scramble opportunities, and Murray has historically thrived against the Seahawks on the ground, clearing 28.5 rushing yards in four consecutive matchups and averaging 57 rushing yards per game. If the Cardinals play from behind, Murray’s rushing upside becomes even more significant.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 28.5 Rushing Yards -115
‘O’ 20.5 Passing Completions -130

RB James Conner

James Conner has been a true boom-or-bust rusher this season, eclipsing 85 rushing yards in five games but failing to hit 55 in the other five. A growing concern is his reduced snap share, which has dropped to an average of 51% over the last two games (down from 72.1% before Week 10, excluding the Green Bay game where he was injured). Despite these usage concerns, the Seahawks present a favorable matchup for running backs. Seattle ranks 22nd in PFF’s run defense grading and allows the third most rushing yards per game (120.3). They also give up the 7th highest yards per carry (4.75) and 7th highest yards after contact per attempt (2.44), while their 12th-lowest stuff rate indicates a vulnerability to consistent gains. Conner’s role in the passing game has been steady, with 3+ catches and targets in each of the last two games, and he remains the primary goal-line option. While his snap share trend is concerning, Conner has the skillset and matchup to deliver another strong performance if his opportunities align.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 68.5 Rushing Yards -113
Anytime Touchdown -125

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a steady target in Arizona’s offense, seeing 5+ targets in every healthy game since Week 1. However, his involvement can be unpredictable due to Kyler Murray’s lower passing volume in recent weeks. Seattle’s defense runs man coverage at the 9th-highest rate (32.7%) and ranks 12th in first-read percentage, but they limit outside wide receivers, allowing the 23rd-highest target share to the position. Harrison Jr.’s red zone usage (24% target share) and big-play ability (6 TDs this season) give him upside, especially against a Seahawks defense that has allowed 15 passing touchdowns this year. While his ceiling is enticing, his floor could be capped, making him a higher-variance option in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown +175

WR Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson has been a secondary option in Arizona’s passing game, with inconsistent target volume limiting his relevance. He typically operates as an outside receiver, but Seattle’s defense has been effective against the position, allowing the 23rd-highest target share to outside wideouts. The volume and production has been limited the last few weeks. He has 4 or fewer targets in 5 of the last 6 and he’s only cleared his 2.5 reception line in two of them. His receiving line sits at 26.5, which he’s only cleared once in his last 5 Seattle’s man coverage (9th-highest rate) could create some opportunities for Wilson to make plays, but Kyler Murray’s lower passing volume in recent weeks adds risk to his outlook. Without significant red zone involvement or a history of consistent production, Wilson is a risky option in what looks to be a middling matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 26.5 Receiving Yards -113

TE Trey McBride

Trey McBride remains a key piece of Arizona's passing attack, surpassing 50 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games. While his target share has dipped slightly in the past two weeks, it came against tougher opponents, and he still boasts an impressive near-25% target share and a top-five ranking in yards per route run. Seattle has shifted from being a prime matchup for tight ends last year to a more average one this season, allowing the 18th most receptions and 14th most receiving yards per game to the position. McBride is still seeking his first touchdown of the season, but his consistent yardage output makes the yardage prop a solid play here if you're looking to back him.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +210

QB Geno Smith
Geno Smith thrives in clean-pocket situations, where he boasts an impressive 107.1 passer rating, but his performance plummets to a troubling 50.2 passer rating under pressure. Fortunately for Smith, the Cardinals' pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league, sitting 30th in PFF pass rush grades, and they allow one of the longest average times to throw (2.70 seconds, 5th highest). This should provide Smith with ample opportunity to operate in favorable conditions. Arizona's secondary has struggled with efficiency, allowing the 9th highest completion percentage (68.4%) and a middling 7.21 yards per attempt (15th). However, they've been surprisingly stout in the red zone, allowing the 9th lowest passing touchdown rate (3.5%), and they don’t force many mistakes with the 3rd lowest turnover-worthy throw rate (1.2%). As a runner, Smith has cleared 3.5 rushing attempts in 8 of 10 games this season, averaging 4 per game. In his last four matchups against ARI dating back to 2022, he has rushed over this number in 3 of them (6 rushing attempts in each). WE get the added benefit of potential kneel downs if SEA wins this game. In this matchup, Smith’s success will likely hinge on his ability to capitalize on clean pockets, as the Cardinals’ lack of pressure gives him an opportunity to find his rhythm despite their bend-but-don’t-break defensive tendencies.

Suggest Picks
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -120
‘O’ 3.5 Rushing Attempts -125

RB Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker Jr. enters this matchup healthy but has struggled with efficiency, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry this season. The Cardinals present a mixed bag defensively, allowing the 12th-highest yards per carry (4.49) but ranking 22nd in explosive run rate and 19th overall in PFF’s run defense grades. However, Arizona has allowed the 27th-highest rushing TD rate and 29th-highest stuff rate, offering some upside for Walker on the ground. Where Walker stands out is his passing game involvement. He has at least 2 receptions in every game and has cleared his receiving line of 20.5 yards in 6 of 8 contests this year. With Arizona allowing the 7th-most receiving yards and 10th-most receptions to running backs, targeting his receiving prop looks like the sharpest play in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 20.5 Receiving Yards -117
Anytime Touchdown -140

RB Zach Charbonnet

Zach Charbonnet remains a clear backup when Kenneth Walker is healthy, serving primarily as a change-of-pace option with some receiving work. Currently, he only has touchdown props available, but his limited role makes him an unappealing play in this matchup. Unless Walker were to miss time, Charbonnet’s workload likely won’t warrant consideration. If that changes, we’ll reassess his potential as the lead back.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR DK Metcalf

In his return from a two-week absence due to a knee injury, DK Metcalf impressed with 7 catches on 9 targets for 70 yards, commanding nearly a 30% target share. His role as a primary target remains intact, but this week’s matchup with Arizona presents challenges. The Cardinals excel at limiting big plays, ranking 21st in yards per reception (10.6) and yards after the catch per reception (5.19). Additionally, they rank 25th in target share allowed to outside receivers (37.7%), a potential obstacle for Metcalf’s production. While Metcalf's explosive play ability and high target share make him a threat in any game, this doesn't look like a matchup where he’s likely to thrive. Betting on his receiving yards prop is risky but could pay off if he converts a few deep targets.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions +105

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been on a tear over the last three weeks, and he didn’t slow down with DK Metcalf back in the lineup. Last week, JSN delivered a standout performance with 10 catches on 11 targets for 110 yards, solidifying his role in Seattle's offense. This matchup against Arizona sets up well for him. While the Cardinals are stronger against outside receivers, they allow the 14th highest target share to slot receivers and give up ~5 catches per game to the position at an efficient 8.5 yards per target. With Arizona likely focusing defensive attention on Metcalf, JSN is in a prime position to capitalize and continue his breakout. This looks like an excellent spot for him to thrive.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 55.5 Receiving Yards -113
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions -128

WR Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett has taken a noticeable back seat in the Seahawks' offense with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the return of DK Metcalf. While Lockett has cleared his modest receiving yards mark (37.5) in 7 of 10 games this season and still plays out of the slot at times, his recent target volume has been underwhelming. Over the last three weeks, he’s seen just 3, 4, and 3 targets, even in games where Metcalf was absent. Though his snap share remains steady, JSN’s breakout and Metcalf's dominant target share have limited Lockett’s opportunities. While his efficiency and knack for making big plays keep him in the mix, his recent lack of involvement makes him a riskier play in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions -125

TE AJ Barner

There’s no line available yet for AJ Barner, who has solidified his role as the Seahawks' primary pass-catching tight end. Over the past three games, Barner has maintained a consistent floor with at least 2 receptions, 2 targets, and 15+ receiving yards in each contest. His longest reception has been 9 yards or better in this span, offering some potential depending on the line. However, Arizona presents a tough matchup for tight ends, ranking 11th in fewest receiving yards allowed and 12th in fewest receptions. Unless the line is especially low, this feels like a spot to avoid, as Barner’s opportunities may be limited in a game where the Seahawks could focus on their wide receivers or running backs instead. Consider the longest reception prop if it’s favorable; otherwise, it's best to steer clear.

Suggested Picks
PASS (potentially LR if opens)

ARI has been a big surprise this season as Kyler deserves the love he’s gotten. However, I think this ARI defense has been overperforming. Given Kyler’s lack of volume passing, I think he’s going to have to air it out to keep pace, and that might spell bad things for this ARI offense. I love the foundation of this ARI offense, but don’t think it has fully matured. I’m expecting a hungry SEA team with its offensive weapons fully healthy to put some points on the board in this one. With some cruddy weather planned, we might see a rushing-heavy game plan here, which always favors the under.

Best Bet (Seahawks ML -110)
Lean (‘U’ 47.5 -110)
Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20

QB Jalen Hurts

Hurts averages 219.7 passing yards per game, 8.35 YPA and has thrown 12 TDs. He’s also ran for 41.7 yards per game and 1.1 rushing TDs per game. He’ll face a Rams defense that allows the 7^th most passing yards per game. They also allow the 10^th fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs. The Rams are middle of the pack in terms of blitz rate (27%) and pressure rate over expected (12^th highest). They run single high 55.5% of the time (10^th highest frequency) and allow 0.59 fantasy points per drop back when in this scheme (worst in the NFL). They run zone coverage 71.8% of the time (10^th highest) and allow the 2^nd most fantasy points per drop back while in this coverage. Against single-high, Hurts averages 8.95 YPA and has a QB rating of 107. Against zone coverage, Hurts averages 8.20 YPA and has a QB rating of 98.1. Post bye, the Eagles have been the most run heavy over expected out of any team in the league. That can partially be attributed to matchups. I think this is a matchup where they may throw more than expected against a vulnerable Rams secondary.

Suggested Pick
“O” 220.5 Pass Yds (-114)
250+ Pass Yds (+210)

RB Saquon Barkley

Saquon leads the league in rushing yards per game (113.7) and averages 5.77 YPC. He’ll face a Rams defense that is 15^th in rushing yards allowed per game and allow the 9^th fewest yards per carry. The Rams are middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards allowed per game to opposing RBs (34.40). The Rams allow the 3^rd fewest YPC from runs coming from shotgun (4.35). That compares to the 7^th most YPC from runs when the QB is under-center. 112 of Saquon’s attempts have come out of shotgun, where he averages 6.27 YPC. That compares to only 46 attempts for 6.69 YPC with the QB under-center. Considering most of Saquon’s volume comes from shotgun formation, this is a negative split against the Rams. The Rams also allow the 5^th fewest share of yards coming from explosive runs (18.0%). Saquon is a home run waiting to happen, with 40.9% of his yards coming from explosive runs.

Suggested Pick
“U” 95.5 Rush Yds (-115)
“U” 20.5 Rush Att (-115)

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown is averaging 88.3 receiving yards per game, 3.51 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 35.8%, number 1 on the Eagles. He’ll face a Rams defense that is allowing the 14^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. They run single high 55.5% of the time (10^th highest frequency) and allow 0.59 fantasy points per drop back when in this scheme (worst in the NFL). They run zone coverage 71.8% of the time (10^th highest) and allow the 2^nd most fantasy points per drop back while in this coverage. Against single-high, AJ averages 3.66 YPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 38.4%. Against zone coverage, Brown averages 3.13 YPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 31.5%. AJ Brown has lined up outside on 80.1% of his routes. The Rams allow the 16^th highest target rate to wide alignment (40.5%) but the 2^nd most YPRR against wide alignment (2.42). The Rams allow the 9^th lowest target rate to the slot (30.7%) as well as the 6^th fewest YPRR (1.68). The Rams also allow the 7^th most receiving yards per game on targets 20+ yards down field (54.2). AJ Brown is a huge deep threat. DeVonta Smith was ruled out as I was writing this up. That means more volume as the Eagles really don’t have another consistent receiving threat.

Suggested Pick
“O” 90.5 Rec Yds (-110)
100+ Rec Yds (+125)
110+ Rec Yds (+160)
125+ Rec Yds (+240)

TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert is averaging 55.3 receiving yards per game, 2.32 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 21.3% and with DeVonta out, should see extra volume. He’ll face a Rams defense that allows the 5^th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. They run single high 55.5% of the time (10^th highest frequency) and allow 0.59 fantasy points per drop back when in this scheme (worst in the NFL). They run zone coverage 71.8% of the time (10^th highest) and allow the 2^nd most fantasy points per drop back while in this coverage. Against single-high, Goedert averages 3.13 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes, a positive split. Against zone coverage, Goedert is averaging 2.33 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. The Rams allow the 6^th highest inline target share (12.8%), where Goedert lines up on 38.9% of his routes. Bullish matchup for Goedert without Smith.

Suggested Pick
“O” 45.5 Rec Yds (-110)
60+ Rec Yds (+190)
70+ Rec Yds (+300)

QB Matthew Stafford

Stafford averages 255.7 passing yards per game, 7.33 YPA and has thrown 13 TDs. He’ll face an Eagles defense that has allowed the 2^nd fewest passing yards per game, and the 5^th fewest passing TDs. The Eagles have the 4^th lowest blitz rate in the league (19.0%) but have the 12^th highest pressure rate over expected. When Stafford is blitzed, he averages 8.48 YPA and has a QB rating of 105.3, compared to 6.73 YPA and an 85.2 QB rating when not blitzed. The Eagles are a balanced team in terms of scheme. They play single-high 52.9% of the time (19^th highest frequency) and a 67.3% zone rate (19^th highest frequency). Post-bye, the eagles have been even tougher against the pass. They have allowed only 155.5 passing yards per game and 5.15 YPA, both the lowest marks by a wide margin. With Puka and Kupp active, Stafford has averaged an elite 296.4 passing yards per game. That compares to 214.8 passing yards without them. Even so, though is an elite pass defense where I’ll fade Stafford.

Suggested Pick
“U” 242.5 Pass Yds (-115)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams has averaged 75 rushing yards per game, but this is on pure volume. He has been inefficient, averaging only 3.93 YPC, 4^th lowest amongst RBs with 100+ carries. He also saw his lowest 2^nd lowest snap share on the season last week at 80.4%. Blake Corum has gotten more involved, with a snap share of 19% and 5 rush attempts. I could see the rookie making this a 70-30 backfield in a few weeks as he gains coach McVay’s trust. Looking at the matchup, the Eagles allow the 8^th fewest YPC (4.23). They are better against man/gap concepts, allowing 3.88 YPC and a 44.3% success rate (7^th lowest). That compares to 4.78 YPC and a 54.2% success rate against zone concept (4^th highest). 53.4% of Kyren’s attempts have been man/gap concepts, and he averages 3.73 YPC with a 57.8% success rate. That compares to 4.16 YPC and a 43.8% success rate in zone concepts. Looking at receiving, Kyren averages 13.6 receiving yards per game on 2.5 receptions. The Eagles allow the 10^th most receiving yards to opposing RBs (36.2).

Suggested Pick
“U” 74.5 Rush Yds (-114)
“U” 17.5 Rush Att (-115)

WR Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp is averaging 81.3 receiving yards per game on 2.46 YPRR and has been targeted on 33% of his routes. He commands a 1^st-read rate of 38.7%, highest on the Rams. The Eagles are allowing the least receiving yards to opposing WRs and their rookie CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are a big reason why. The Eagles are a balanced team in terms of scheme. They play single-high 52.9% of the time (19^th highest frequency) and a 67.3% zone rate (19^th highest frequency). Against zone coverage, Kupp averages 2.65 YPRR and commands a 1^st-read rate of 39.8%. Kupp has lined up from the slot on 68.2% of his routes. The Eagles are middle of the pack in target rate to the slot at a 31.8% frequency. The Eagles allow the 9^th lowest average depth of target (7.6). Kupp has been utilized more as an underneath target, with an aDOT of 7.6.

Suggested Pick
“O” 65.5 Rec Yds (-114)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka is averaging 74.6 receiving yards per game on 3.16 YPRR and has been targeted on 34% of his routes. He commands a 1^st-read rate of 23.9%, 2^nd on the Rams. The Eagles are allowing the least receiving yards to opposing WRs and their rookie CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are a big reason why. The Eagles are a balanced team in terms of scheme. They play single-high 52.9% of the time (19^th highest frequency) and a 67.3% zone rate (19^th highest frequency). Against zone coverage, Puka averages 3.09 YPRR and commands a 1^st-read rate of 25.7%. Puka has lined up from out wide on 74.6% of his routes. The Eagles allow the 7^th lowest target share to out wide (37.5%). The Eagles allow the 9^th lowest average depth of target (7.6). Puka has been utilized more downfield relative to Kupp, with an aDOT of 11.1.

Suggested Pick
“U” 72.5 Rec Yds (-114)

The Eagles have been one of the best defensive teams in the NFL post bye, especially against the pass. The Rams strength is their passing game with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, but with this defense, they will likely find it difficult to move the ball. In the running game, Kyren Williams has been inefficient. I think the Eagles will be able to move the ball enough on offense to beat the Rams handily. Rams are decent against the run, but not great against the pass. I expect Hurts to connect with AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert a ton in this one. They are far and away the better team.

Best Bet (Eagles -2.5)
Lean (Under 48.5)
Eagles 24 Rams 17