NFL Week 11 NFL Game Guides

QB Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels has without a doubt been the best rookie QB in the NFL this season, with a 8.19 YPA that is ranking 8th overall among all QBs. The only question has been the strength of the competition he has faced, and this Thursday night tilt against the Eagles will provide him the opportunity against the team that has allowed the lowest YPA in the NFL (6.08). The Eagles are fairly multiple defensively, but they do not run hardly any Cover 2 and not much Cover 3 either. One coverage they will throw a lot at Daniels in comparison to other teams he has faced, however, is Cover 4. The Eagles rank 10th in the NFL lining up in Cover 4 on 16.8% of his snaps. Daniels has also been excellent against Cover 4, with a 8.38 YPA against the coverage and a 75% completion rate. If we are going to question Daniels’ strength of competition, we also have to question the Eagles defense strength of competition. 3 recent QBs they have faced have been in the bottom 12 in YPA (out of 49 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks this year), with Daniel Jones (6.07), Deshaun Watson (5.31), and Cooper Rush (3.42). Because of that, it is tough to pull the trigger on a Daniels over or under in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
Pass

RB Brian Robinson Jr.

It has been announced that Brian Robinson will in fact suit up for the Commanders on Thursday night, which is good news for the Commanders, as he has missed the last game with a hamstring injury. I expect for Washington to give the Eagles a fair dose of the run game in this contact. The Eagles are far more vulnerable through the ground than through the air, giving up 4.49 YPC, which ranks 17th in the NFL. Teams have been able to stay ahead of the chains at a decent rate using the run game against the Eagles as well, which are boasting just a 41.1% Stuff-Rate (23rd in NFL), and also giving up 1.85 yards before contact per attempt (9th most in NFL). This has been a strength of Robinson as well when he has the ball, averaging 2.02 YBCO/att (26th out of 72 NFL RBs with 25+ rush attempts). While the matchup is solid for Washington’s run attack, the injury to Robinson (even though he is playing) makes it difficult to pin down who will get the majority of the rush share.

Suggested Play:
Pass

WR Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has also been one of the more WR1s in the NFL, but he has really flourished this season with Daniels at the helm. He is seeing 2.64 yards per route run, which ranks 8th in the NFL, and is currently 3rd in the NFL in total yards. He has been extremely successful in converting his targets, as his target share is not necessarily at an elite level at 22.6%, but is pulling in an impressive 72.3% of his targets. Enter Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, who will be on an island on McLaurin for much of this game. Mitchell has been a stud corner and has locked up WR1s all year. Over the last 5 games, he has allowed only 9 catches and 87 yards on his targets, and a 60 passer rating when he is the CB targeted. McLaurin is a crafty veteran WR who will be able to test the rookie and find angles the way other receivers can’t, but it is tough to believe that McLaurin will be the best option for Daniels in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 59.5 receiving yards (-110)

WR Noah Brown

Despite the overall better numbers as of late from McLaurin over Noah Brown in this Commanders WR corps, Brown has actually been targeted more as of late, seeing 19 targets over his last 3 games. Drops have plagues Brown at times this year, including last week. On the year he has a 8.1 drop rate, but has an impression separation score of 0.167. This tells me the chances are there, but Brown just has to begin pulling them in. Drops are not purely a luck stat, with some WRs being simply much more drop prone than others. With that being said, the fact that Brown is getting so many targets with McLaurin also on the field tells me that Daniels has a lot of faith in Brown to make plays. Last week, Brown ran a route on 97.3% of team dropbacks, which was the highest number on the team. With Mitchell on McLaurin, Brown gets a tough, but manageable matchup on CB Darius Slay, who actually has been picked on at a relatively high 15.7% rate this year. If Brown gets the separation he has and the targets keep coming like I think they will, I like Brown here with more attention being given on Scary Terry.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz has been a solid target for Jayden Daniels this season. He has seen a 19.6% target share, which ranks 8th among NFL TEs.  He also has been relatively efficient with his targets as well, seeing 1.55 yards per route run, which ranks 28th out of 65 TEs with at least 50 routes run on the season. Unfortunately for Ertz, one of the toughest aspects of the Eagles defense has been their performance against TEs this year. The Eagles have allowed 36.9 receiving yards per game to TEs, which ranks 4th lowest in the NFL. Ertz has an aDOT of 8.7, which is decent for a TE, but has nothing to really offer once he catches the ball. He is getting 0.90 YAC/reception. With a receiving number at 33.5 and not much of a threat after the catch, Ertz seemingly would have to pull in a lot of catches to cash this line against one of the best TE defenses in the NFL.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 33.5 Receiving Yard (-120)

QB Jalen Hurts

Hurts does not pass that often, with OC Kellen Moore and Nick Sirianni drawing up a very run-centric gameplan over the course of this season. When he does dropback, however, he has been one of the NFL’s most efficient passers, with a 69.8% completion rate that ranks 6th in the NFL. The Washington secondary has been improved this year, but still have a long way to go. The Commanders are allowing a 102.5 passer rating against (6th in NFL), and a 7.36 YPA against (11th highest allowed). In terms of scheme, they will predominantly line up in man coverage, on 35.8% of snaps (8th most in NFL). Looking at past games vs mobile QBs, the Commanders have gone even more heavily into man. Lamar Jackson went 20-26 with 323 against them, and there is definitely a chance we could see a similar look against Hurts. If so, Hurts has also faired well when facing man coverage, with a 9.45 YPA (4th in NFL), and a 123.5 passer rating against man (4th in the NFL). While Hurts should have another efficient outing here and perform well, they simply would rather not pass the ball often with how complex their rushing attack is. I like efficiency out of Hurts rather than volume, and think he can convert some deep shots against a defense that has the 9th highest deep throw completion % in the NFL at 12.2, but also think that for the most part they will be feeding Saquon Barkley. Good spot here for some negative correlation.

Suggested Plays:
‘U’ 27.5 Pass Attempts (-130)
‘O’ 38.4 Longest Pass Completion (-110)

RB Saquon Barkley

Despite the improved pass defense, the Commanders rush defense has been extremely vulnerable. They are not only giving up 4.85 YPC, which is the 4th most in the NFL, but they are also giving up a -7.6% pass rate over expectation (PROE), meaning opponents have run the ball rather than pass at a disproportionate rate factoring in down and distance and game script. So not only have they struggled with efficiency, but teams are also running the ball extremely often against the Commanders. As for Saquon Barkley, he has been very explosive this year, running for 10+ yards on 14% of his carries, which is the 10th most in the NFL. Washington has been extremely vulnerable to longer runs, giving up rushes of 10+ yards on 16.3% of RB carries (most in NFL). Barkley is seeing 77.8% of his carries out of the shotgun, which is the 4th most in the NFL. On the flipside Washington allows the 5th most rush yards per game with a QB in shotgun, at 67.8. When you factor in a solid chance for a favorable game script, a lot is lining up for Barkley to have a massive game, especially him getting to rest in the 4th quarter of last Sunday’s game with the quick turnaround.

Suggested Plays:
‘O’ 18.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
‘O’ 93.5 Rush Yards (-110)
‘O’ 129.5 Rush Yards (+310)

WR AJ Brown

If the Commanders are going to continue to line up in man as often as they have so far this year (35.8% of snaps which is 8th most in the NFL), then AJ Brown has an extremely high chance to be the beneficiary. AJ Brown has seen a 35.7% target share against man on the season, which is the 3rd highest of all NFL WRs. Not only is he getting targeted often, but he is dominating those targets, with an outstanding 5.12 yards per route run, which is the highest among WRs with at least 20 routes run against man coverage (Brown has run 43). Most of these passes have been longer as well, with a 14.5 aDOT, and still with a 73.3% catch rate. This is an absolute smash spot against Mike Sainristil, a solid rookie CB but in over his head with this matchup.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 28.5 Longest Reception (-120)

WR DeVonta Smith

With AJ Brown missing the bulk of September, DeVonta Smith was able to flourish with Brown off the field, seeing 31.1% target share with no Brown. However, Smith has seen a sharp decrease in targets and routes since the return of Brown at the beginning of October, seeing a target on only 15.5% of his routes. With Brown he is seeing 1.64 yards per route, in comparison to 2.77 without Brown. Despite that, he still has been able to put together a couple of solid games against Cincinnati (85 yards on 6 receptions), and against Jacksonville (87 yards on 4 receptions). Much of this has been due to some solid YAC when he does get the ball, seeing 4.43 YAC per reception. Smith definitely has the potential to have a big night, but he also has been inconsistent with Brown (only 14 receiving yards last week). This makes it tough to project how influential Smith will be with Brown next to him on the field.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Dallas Goedert

While Goedert missed most of the 4th quarter last week due to the Eagles blowout, he was on the field early and often in the first 3 quarters after making his return from injury, running a route on 74% of passing dropbacks. Behind Brown, Goedert has been the most efficient receiving option for the Eagles, seeing 2.31 yards per route run, which is 3rd in the NFL among TEs with at least 50 routes run this season, behind only Kittle and McBride. The issue for Goedert has been the same as Smith. Since Brown’s return, he is seeing only 1.09 yards per route run, and only 4 total targets over that span which has also coincided with the Eagles prioritizing their rushing attack more. He also has only run a route on 41.1% of the team’s passing dropback. This decline in production as of late makes for a good spot for an under.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

The Commanders have proven all season they are legit. However I do not see the same formula for success for them in this divisional matchup against the Eagles. The Eagles like to run the ball early and often, and there is no reason they shouldn’t be able to do so against the Commanders. I do trust Washington and Jayden Daniels offensively, but it just feels like they are going to have to work much harder for it than the Eagles will.

Best Bet Eagles -2.5 -155
Lean: Over 48.5 -115
Eagles 28 Commanders 21

QB Lamar Jackson

Jackson once again is putting together a phenomenal season, and should be square in the MVP conversation. In this matchup against the Steelers, the main thing that stands out to me is the rate in which the Steelers line up with 1 high-safety and with the middle of the field closed. They have 1 high-safety on 71.0% of their defensive snaps, which is by far the most in the NFL. Lamar has been excellent when seeing 1-high safety. He has a YPA of 9.68, which is the 4th highest mark in the NFL. One thing that stands out to me about the Steelers defense was their recent matchup with Commanders QB Jayden Daniels last week. The Steelers showed a clear emphasis to stopping the read option game of Washington, and they were able to hold Daniels to what was by far his worst game rushing the football all year, and also a poor game in general with just 5.9 YPA from Daniels. Jackson’s playmaking ability on the ground is of course one of one, but I think they will try to force him to throw the ball and not let them beat them on the ground. Luckily for Jackson, this is a solid matchup to do so against.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 240.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Derrick Henry

Henry has been the NFL’s premiere RB this season. Out of RBs with at least 50 attempts, he has the highest YPC at an incredibly impressive 6.09. Henry also leads the NFL in total yards, with 1120 this season. He sees a fairly tough run defense with Pittsburgh in this matchup, which have a 46.6% stuff rate, and also are a great tackling team, giving up only 2.12 YAC per attempt, which is the 9th lowest for an NFL defense. This makes for a strength on strength matchup with Henry, who thrives on making plays after first contact. Henry has not been able to really get going over the past 2 weeks, and last week it was primarily due to a trailing game script. Look for the Ravens to emphasize Henry early and often in this one. In terms of total yards, this is a tough call because it is strength against strength. However one angle I like for Henry is his ability to score a TD in this game. He has seen 86.7% of the Ravens carries inside the 5 yard line. Meanwhile, the Steelers have not been able to offer much resistance in those near goal line situations, with RBs scoring 53.3% of TDs against them (4th most in NFL).

Suggested Play:
1+ TD (-137)
2+ TD (+330)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers is in the middle of an outstanding 2nd season in the NFL, and has dominated this Ravens WR corps as its number one option. He has a route run on 86.2% of the team’s dropbacks, and and also has a target share of 24.9% on the year. Flowers has been exceptionally good when seeing the 1-high safety look that the Steelers are in on the vast majority of their defensive snaps, seeing 3.36 YPRR against it, and typically stretching the defense against 1-high looks as well, averaging 15.71 yards per reception on 43 total targets vs 1-high coverage on the season. The issue for Flowers has been how boom or bust he has been, despite what has been overall an amazing season by looking at his numbers. His highs have been so high that they have overcompensated for his off games, such as last week vs the Bengals in which he had just 34 yards. This is an ideal matchup for Flowers, and I look for a bounceback performance.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashod Bateman

Rashod Bateman stepped up last Thursday night against the Bengals in what was somewhat of an off game for Flowers, pulling in 54 yards and a TD on 6 receptions. However, similar to Flowers, Bateman has also had inconsistent results from week to week. I think there is a good chance that this week is one of the down weeks for Bateman, as he is a guy who has really struggled to find production against 1-high. His 1.07 YPRR is the lowest among the entire WRs corps of the Ravens out of players who have recorded a catch this season. Alternate WRs have had some success vs the Steelers this year, but given the matchup for Flowers and the lack of a good matchup for Bateman, this seems like the week where this trend could come to an end.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Mark Andrews/TE Isaiah Likely

Good to chance that we see an overhaul among the TE share of the Ravens in this matchup. While Andrews has played extremely well as of late, Isaiah Likely has also been injured. Last game Andrews had 6 receptions for 1 TDs and 68 yards and ran a route on 94.4% of Lamar’s dropbacks. However with Likely on the field, he is on the field just around 59% of snaps this season. Andrews has been a prolific threat in the red zone, and I do not see that changing due to Likely’s return. He has 5 TDs on the season, and is also tied for 10th in the NFL among TEs with 7 red zones. In general Andrews is the more established NFL TE and has long been a favorite target of Lamar Jackson. I do not see Likely playing him off the field although the snap share is very much up in the air. Still, a look at Andrews in the red zone is a strong play.

Suggested Play:
1+ TD (+210)

QB Russell Wilson

Since stepping in as the Steelers starter for Justin Fields, Wilson has not been efficient in terms of completing passes, with only a 58.8 completion% on the season. With that being said, he has made his completions count with 17.6% of his passes coming over 20 yards, which is the 4th highest rate in the NFL. This has resulted in a 8.7 YPA overall, which is 6th in the NFL. Wilson likes to throw the ball downfield, and it should be music to his ears to find out that this Ravens defense allows 13.1% of deep throws to be completed, which is the 5th most in the NFL. They also have allowed a 8.8 aDOT against, which is the 6th most in the NFL. The Ravens defense has been attacked often through the air as they are very good against the run, but not as good against the pass. They have a +6.8% PROE (pass rate over expectation) allowed, which makes them the biggest pass funnel in the NFL. To tack on to all of that, they are without Kyle Hamilton, who may just be their best defensive player (Ravens are allowing 9.3 YPA without Hamiton on the field). This is a solid spot for Wilson all around, but given the shots that he likes to take downfield and the trouble Baltimore has had defending the deep ball, that is the spot I would like to target.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 37.5 Longest Completion (-115)

RB Najee Harris

Najee Harris left the game last week with an ankle injury. While he likely is fine to play this week against the Ravens, his outlook certainly does not look the best. As mentioned in the Russell Wilson, the +6.8% PROE of the Ravens defense gives them the biggest pass funnel in the NFL. This of course means that RBs do not get much work, and that is primarily due to how dominant they have been up front against opposing RBs. The Ravens are allowing only 3.2 YPC, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. Harris has been relatively inconsistent in his own right, with only a 48.0% success rate vs man concepts and 41.1% success rate against zone concepts. He does have 403 total YACO this year (9th in NFL), but the issue is how good of a tackling team the Ravens are, allowing by far the fewest YACO in the NFL at only 1.64 yards per attempt. The loss of Kyle Hamilton may hurt in runs that Harris can break into the second level, but it is hard to imagine Harris getting there often in the first place against this dominant front. It is also possible that Najee will see a limited workload if he is still banged up from last week. The Steelers are underdogs in this game, and they have shown they will abandon the run game if playing from behind, with Harris staying under his yards line in 8 of his last 10 losses.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 50.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR George Pickens

George Pickens is Russel Wilson’s primary option at WR. He has seen a nice spike in production with Wilson as the starter over the last 3 game in comparison to Fields. With Fields, Pickens averaged 2.30 yards per route run, but with Wilson this number has jumped to 3.21. Pickens is converting his target at a nice rate, with a catch rate of 62.5% and with QBs this year that have struggled in terms of completion percentage. However, his route rate of 79.5% is not incredibly high for a typical WR1, and we will see if Pickens’ recent performance earns him more volume. He is an outside WR who has lined up 71.7% of his routes up wide. This is good news for Pickens facing a Ravens defense who has given up 1396 yards on wide alignment targets this year, which is by far the most in the NFL. Wilson will test this defense deep, and with an aDOT of 13.9, we can expect Pickens to see some great chances down the field.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Calvin Austin

Calvin Austin is the Steelers’ primary option out of the slot position, as he lines up inside on 60.8% of his routes overall. The Ravens have been slightly better against slot WRs than outside WRs, but still have given up 8.46 yards per target (8th in NFL) and allow 1.85 yards per route run. However, we have to also remember that much of this is due to the presence of Kyle Hamilton over the middle of the field. With Hamilton out, there certainly could be an opening for Austin out of the slot, particularly after the catch. My concern for Austin in this spot is that he ran a route on only 59.4% of passing plays last week, although Wilson did target him on 31.6% of his routes. We will see if Austin gets more action this week, particularly with Hamilton out. I have a hard time counting on his volume.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Pat Freiermuth

Whereas Pickens has seen a spike in volume with Wilson as the QB in comparison, the TE Freiermuth has seen the exact opposite occur. This is likely due to him running the majority of his routes in the intermediate range of the field, and Wilson liking to either dump the ball off or push the ball deep, with only 25% of his targets coming in between 10-20 yards in the air. Friermuth has seen only 10.1% of Wilson’s target, but has seen his share of red zone targets. He caught a TD last week, and has seen 7 targets for 7 receptions on the year in the red zone. The 7 targets rank him at 10th among NFL TEs in red zone targets. With Baltimore allowing the 2nd most receptions per game to the TE position, his red zone production is where I would look.

Suggested Play:
1+ TD (+275)

Give me an upset here. The Steelers are flying high into this game and have looked good since Russell Wilson took over the helm. The Ravens defense has already struggled, and I think Wilson and Pickens have what to take to do some serious damage to the Ravens secondary now lacking Kyle Hamilton. Their defense also has had success against Lamar Jackson in the past, and have shown a successful blueprint of how they can stop mobile QBs.

Best Bet (Steelers +3.5 -115)
Lean (Under 48.5 -110)
Steelers 24 Ravens 21

QB Mac Jones

Jones is making his first start with the Jaguars and the season in for an injured Trevor Lawrence. He did play last week against Minnesota and in a few other snaps throughout the year. So far this season, he is 20-31 on 38 dropbacks, he has only a 4.48 YPA and thrown 2 INTs with 0 TDs. One thing that is particularly alarming to me in a small sample size is the fact that he has taken 5 sacks for 51 sack yards on just 38 dropbacks. However, the majority of that came against the Vikings, which are 6th in the NFL in pressure-rate. He sees a Detroit team that does not get after the passer at anywhere near the same rate, with only a 29.4 pressure-rate, and now without their best pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson. He also sees a Lions defense that lines up in man coverage more than any other NFL team (on 43.8% of snaps), which is much higher than what he saw last week with Minnesota. There is so much uncertainty about Jones simply due to the fact that he is making his first start with the Jags, but also due to the fact that the Lions will provide entirely different looks in comparison to what he has seen so far.

Suggested Play
Pass

RB Trevor Etienne

The Jags have split carries between Etienne and Tank Bigsby this year. Bigsby is questionable due to injury in this matchup, but we know that Etienne is good to go and will play some role in this game. However, if Bigsby does not go, we can expect Etienne to take a massive share of the backfield touches, with him seeing 85.7% of them last week without Bigsby. The Lions rush defense has fallen off some after the injury to Hutchinson, but still have been respectable and have a 45.3% stuff rate, which ranks 14th in the NFL, and also allow the 8th fewest yards after contact per carry in the league, with only 2.11 being allowed on average. Last week, the Lions rush defense was much better, holding the Texans to only 57 rush yards to RBs on 26 carries, which is just above 2 YPC. With likely an awful game script plus the possibility for Bigsby to return, it is hard to have much faith at all in Etienne in this spot, even if Bigsby does not play.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 49.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Early in the season, Thomas looked to be one of the most impressive rookie WRs. However his involvement in the Jacksonville passing offense has been greatly diminished in recent weeks. In the previous two games for Thomas, he has only been targeted on 11.8% and 12.0% his routes. A problem for Thomas in this matchup could be that his production against zone greatly exceeds his production against coverage, which the Lions are in defensively on 43.8% of snaps, which ranks 1st in the NFL. Against man, Thomas has 1.83 yards per route run. Against zone, he leads the Jags WR corps with 2.54 yards per route run. He was not targeted that frequently from Mac Jones, only getting 3 targets on the season with him as the QB. However we imagine in a losing game script and with the Lions having somewhat of a pass funnel defensively (-5.9% PROE that ranks 10th lowest in the NFL), we should expect Thomas to be forced some targets. The question is whether he can convert, and especially against a solid young CB for the Lions in Terrion Arnold. With his recent performance, tough matchup plus the uncertainty at QB, I am going to go ahead and fade Thomas in this spot.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 45.5 Receiving Yards

WR Gabe Davis

The absence of Christian Kirk has really impacted the depth of the Jags receiving corps, and there are not many options behind Thomas. The next best option for Mac Jones here is probably Gabe Davis. But things do not look great for Davis either against this man-heavy Lions defense. Davis has only caught 28.6% of his targets when seeing man coverage, and has only been targeted on 10.7% of his routes in the first place. This has led to a poor 0.67 yards per route run. He may be able to do some damage when seeing other coverages besides the man coverage the Lions are in the most, but this is another good fade spot even with the injuries that exist on the Jags WR corps.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 31.5 Receiving Yards

TE Evan Engram

One player who can have some serious success for the Jags in the passing game is their tight end Evan Engram, who really has been their receiving option over the past 2 weeks without Christian Kirk. Engram has received 33.2% and 38.1% of the Jags total targets over the last 2 weeks, which is by far the most on the team. He is getting plenty of volume, with 0.37 targets per route run over the course of the entire season. The middle of the Lions defense has been a strength unfortunately for Engram, with them giving up only 6.1 yards per target to the TE position this season (9th fewest in NFL). With that being said, the amount of volume that Engram could see in this matchup should be extremely high, with both Thomas and Davis, the top two WRs left, having major negative matchups against the Lions. The Lions may not allow many yards, but he is sure to pull in several of his targets, with a nice 60.0% catch rate on the season. Look for Engram to have an impact due to his predicted high target share here.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (+110)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff is coming off an extremely complicated game on Sunday night against the Texans. He threw 5 INTs in the game which is by far a career high, while simultaneously leading a 2nd half comeback win from down 16 at half to beat the Texans on the road. It will be interesting to see how he responds this week in Jacksonville, and luckily has an ideal bounceback matchup against the Jags. Goff has a 8.63 YPA on the year, which ranks 5th overall in the NFL. He has also been incredibly accurate, ranking 3rd in the NFL with a 71.8% completion rate. Against the Jags, he will see a lot of man coverage (Jags in man on 39.1% of defensive snaps, which ranks 3rd in the NFL). Against man coverage, Goff leads the league with a 72.5% completion rate and also a YPA of 10.94. If there were any questions about him having the turnover bug, he has not yet thrown an INT against man coverage all season. Back at home, where Goff plays much better, I am expecting a nice showing from Goff against a weak pass defense.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 225.5 Pass Yards (-110)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs/RB David Montgomery

The Jaguars rush defense has been slightly better than their pass defense this season. They have a 46.2% stuff-rate, which is actually 12th in the NFL. They also give up only 4.30 YPC as well, which is the 10th best rate in the league. However, I am alarmed by a down trend as of late with this Jags rush defense, as they have given up 192.0 rush yards per game over the last 3, which is most in the league over Weeks 8, 9 and 10. The Lions have a true 2-headed monster at RB, and they both have seen more action this year than last year with the Lions rush share in general spiking to 51.1%. Much of this is because they have played with nice leads all year, and we can expect the same against the Jags. For Gibbs, he has the best EPA per rush in the NFL at 0.19, and also has the highest explosive run rate of 16.4%. Both RBs should see plenty of action in this game, but because of how unpredictable the split rush share can be between the two backs I am going to target the one certainty here which is red zone usage from David Montgomery. He is 9th in the NFL in red zone touches at 32, and has 9 goal line touches. He is also 4th in the NFL in total TDs, at 8 which he is getting at an impressive 5.7% of his total touches. Look for Monty to be the Lions’ finisher here.

Suggested Play:
1+ TD (-137)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown has not seen the amount of yards that he has in past years, however he has been the Lions WR relied upon to convert drives. He leads team with both end zone targets (4) an end zone TDs (4). One thing I find interesting about St. Brown this year is how his role as a deep threat within the offense has diminished drastically, and is down to just 7.5 which ranks 5th among Lions TEs and WRs with at least 30 routes run on the season. He also has not registered the same amount of YAC, with only 31.9% of his yards coming after the catch after putting up 44.1% last year. This provides an interesting contrast with the fact that the Jags have also struggled tremendously with YAC defensively, giving up the 3rd most in the NFL at 1422. St Brown is a guy who has been set up to dominate zone, but with the man coverage rate of the Jags this does not necessarily set up well, with him only being targeted in man coverage on 17.8% of his routes.

Suggested Play:
Pass

WR Jameson Williams

Part of the reason that St. Brown has been relied upon less this season down the field, and forcing St. Brown to have fewer yards, is because of the trust that the Lions have been able to build in Jameson Williams as a legitimate deep threat. Williams is averaging 20.7 yards per reception, and has one of the highest aDOT in the NFL at 16.2. He should fare much better against the man coverage that the Jags will often throw at the Lions, with Jameson Williams averaging 4.33 yards per route run when facing man. Williams also gets an ideal matchup in this one to do what he does best. The Jaguars have given up the highest deep throw completion % to WRs in the NFL at 54.4%. With St. Brown not exactly being what the Lions need in terms of a guy who can stretch the defense this season, I am looking for Williams to take that role well in this matchup.

Suggested Plays:
‘O’ 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
‘O’ 69.5 Receiving Yards (+265)

TE Shane Zylstra/TE Brock Wright

Sam Laporta has not quite had the 2nd year that many had projected for him, but much of this has also been due to the nagging injuries he has faced on the year. On Sunday he had a nice 66 yard performance, only unfortunately to leave the game with a shoulder injury, and has been announced out in this game. Shane Zylstra and Brock Wright will fill in and take the snaps at TE TE spot is definitely something to watch against a Jacksonville defense that has really struggled against them. The Jags have allowed 8.6 yards per target to TEs, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Either of these TEs are capable of making that count, but with Laporta’s absence and the question of how they will manage their TE usage up in the air, it is tough to have a lean towards a specific player.

Suggested Play:
Pass

I expect this game to go roughly as the Vegas lines project. There is not a lot the Jags can do to stop this high flying Lions offense, and we cannot rely on Goff throwing 5 INTs again just to stay in the game. On the other side of the ball, the Jags offense is in rough shape with several key injuries including at QB and with an o-line that has had serious issues protecting the QB. The line for this game is about accurate, but I do lean towards the Lions covering that spread and methodically expanding their lead in this matchup.

Best Bet: Lions -13.5 (-120)
Lean: ‘O’ 46.5
Lions 34 Jaguars 14

QB Matthew Stafford 

Since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp the Rams passing offense is officially off life  support. Stafford didn’t have the TD numbers last week, but over the L3 games he has thrown  for 279, 298 and 293 yards. His biggest issues have come inside the red zone, where Stafford  has completed a league-low 39.1% of his passes. The Rams will travel to the east coast to meet  a New England team that runs zone-coverage on 55.0% of its snaps (3rd lowest rate in the NFL).  They play cover 1-man 31.1% of the time and mix in cover 2 (19.4%) and cover 3 (21.7%) on the  side. Against these defensive schemes, Stafford has completed 153 of 229 passes (66.8%) for  1593 yards, but he’s thrown just 2 TD to 5 INT, while being sacked 15 times. The Patriots have a  Pressure-rate of 31.3%, which ranks in the middle of the pack in the NFL, and I wouldn’t let  their domination of the Bears last week ruffle your feathers. The key for Sean McVay’s team in  this game will be to account for Anfernee Jennings and Keion White, who make up 40% of NE’s  total pressures. It won’t be easy for Stafford, but his volume alone should get him over the  passing yards total of 241.5. He’s been picked off at least once in 6 straight games. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-114) 

RB Kyren Williams 

After finding the end zone 8 times in his first six games of the season, Kyren Williams has been  shut out in the last 3 weeks. Out of 27 running backs who have 100 or more attempts this  season, Williams ranks 25th in YPC at 3.8 per game. On the positive side, his workload has  allowed him yield positive results on the ground as he’s had 20 or more touches in 5 straight  games. The Patriots are allowing 4.61 YPC to opposing RB’s, so this bodes well for Williams. This  could be the week that he finally breaks his scoreless streak. Half of the Pats touchdowns  allowed in ’24 have come on the ground, which is the 6th most in the league. Since limiting the  running attack of CIN (70 RY) and SEA (46) to a combined 106 yards in the first 2 weeks of the  season, NE has 5 different RB’s to rush for over 100 yards. This is a very good spot for Kyren. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Anytime TD (-220)
ALT 2+ TD’s (+250) 

WR Puka Nacua 

Puka hauled 9 of 14 targets last week for 98 yards. Albeit a limited sample size, he has been  targeted at a 32% rate this year, ranking him 2nd among all WR’s. Nacua runs 74% of his snaps in  the wide out position, where New England is allowing a 69.5% catch-rate (5th worst in NFL) as  well as 9.3 YPT (7th worst in NFL). CB Jonathan Jones has the unenviable task of guarding Nacua  on Sunday. He’s allowed opposing receivers to catch 20 of the 26 (76.9% CMP) balls that have  been thrown his way. Puka’s health is the only thing that has stood in his way this year. He is an  elite WR in every sense of the word and as long as he is avoids injury he will be productive.

Suggested Pick 
Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Over 5.5 Receptions (-138) 

WR Cooper Kupp 

Cooper Kupp is right on the heels of Nacua with a 30.8% target share for the Rams. He had 7  catches for 80 yards on MNF. While Puka lines up on the outside for the majority of his routes,  Kupp is used primarily in the slot (68.0%). The Patriots have a similar 68.1% CR (14th in NFL)  against the slot position, but they aren’t giving up as many yards as they do to outside WR’s.  New England allows 6.9 YPT to the slot. Kupp will be lined up across from Marcus Jones when  he’s in the slot, and he’s been targeted 43 times, allowing 27 catches (62.8% CR) for 315 yards. Jones has excellent speed, but at 5’8” he gives up a significant size advantage to Kupp who can  use his body to shield off smaller defenders. Stafford’s yardage total is lower in this game due  to the Pats ability to limit YAC to opposing receivers, but there should be plenty of receptions to  go around here as NE ranks just outside the top 10 in receptions to opposing wide receivers. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Over 6.5 Receptions (-102)
ALT Receptions
8+ (+164)
9+ (+265) 

TE Davis Allen 

For now, it appears Davis Allen has officially taken over the TE spot for L.A. as he ran 44 of the  team’s routes on Monday, while catching 5 of 6 targets for 34 yards. The Patriots rank squarely  in the middle of the pack in receiving yards (47.9 YPG) vs tight ends, but they have been much  stingier when comes to receptions (4.6 RPG), ranking 6th in the league. In what little we have  seen of Allen, he hasn’t garnered many YAC. His numbers contradict the strength of the Pats. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

QB Drake Maye 

Despite throwing for a gaudy 184 yards, Drake Maye was able to muster a victory against a  Chicago Bears team that couldn’t have possibly played a less inspiring game at home. On the  contrary, Sean McVay’s defense has improved significantly and during this span their pressure  rate has been the 3rd best in the league at 39.7%. The Rams run zone-coverage (74.6%) at the  5th highest rate in the NFL, where they lean heavily on cover 3 for nearly 40% of their defensive  snaps. Against cover 3, Maye has is 71 for 106 (67% CMP) with 5 TD and 4 INT, and his success  will come down to how well the Patriots can limit L.A.’s pressure. And this is critical because  Drake Maye has been terrible in when opposing defenses are bearing down on him. His completion rate plummets to just 45.8% overall and 42.9% vs cover 3. This is where Maye  would like to use his legs, the Rams have allowed just 16.2 rushing YPG vs opposing QB’s. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson 

I talked in detail last week about how Rhamondre Stevenson’s lack of production is a product of  a poor New England offense. Under Bill Belichick, he averaged 4.6 YPC (’21) and 5.0 YPC (’22) in  his first 2 seasons, where the Pats went 10-7 and 8-9 respectively. But since his departure, the  Patriots have been a disaster. Nobody has been a victim of this more than Stevenson, who finds  himself fighting and clawing for every yard he gets. The good news for Rhamondre here is he  will be playing at home, and NE will do everything they can to slow this game down. The more  they are able to do that, the larger his workload will be, but it will be a game of cat and mouse  as L.A. will try to get out in front early in this one to force Drake Maye’s arm. Sean McVay’s  defense just limited De’Von Achane to 37 yards, and they haven’t allowed a single rusher to  post 100 yards this season. The Rams are allowing 4.27 YPC and Stephenson is getting just 3.8  this year. It will come down to who gets out in front, and there’s no way to know that. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR DeMario Douglas 

DeMario Douglas has been the best among a weak core of receivers in New England, but this is  not a matchup he is expected to excel in. The Patriots WR runs 81.3% of his snaps out of the  slot, and the Rams defense has allowed a league-low 50.9% catch-rate against this position.  Futhermore, L.A. is giving up just 30.2% of its receptions to the slot, which is also the lowest in  the league. Douglas is almost solely dependent as a slot receiver, and this is why we’ve seen  him have a roller-coaster season where he’s posted receiving totals of 69, 59 and 92 only to  turn around and have games of 12, 13, 14 and 12. I’m fading DeMario big time in this game. 

Suggested Pick 
Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-113) 

WR Kayshon Boutte 

We are still waiting for a New England receiver to step up as an outside threat, but it has yet to  happen. As much salt as we’ve thrown on Drake Maye, the guy is desperate for another  legitimate wide receiver. Kayshon Boutte is the guy he’s hoping can develop into that, and he  has a favorable matchup when goes up against Darious Williams. The Patriot corner has  allowed 14 of 18 balls to be caught allowing two games of 60+ receiving yards in 5 starts this  season. The problem here is the volume of zone-coverage L.A. runs is not conducive for Boutte,  who against zone schemes has caught just 7 of 14 passes for 88 yards. The Rams heavy pressure  rate makes this a tough sell for me. I’m pulling teeth to find positive value, but it’s not here.

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Hunter Henry 

I said it was pulling teeth trying to find value in this Patriot offense, but enter Hunter Henry. He  vanished in his last game, which speaks volumes to how erratic this passing offense is, but he  runs a route on 86.2% of dropbacks and he is 2nd on the team in targets when Drake Maye is  behind center. He has the best matchup far and away of any player for New England this week.  Sean McVay’s defense has made vast improvements from where they were early in the season,  but they have yet to solve their issues against the tight end position. They allow 58.3 YPG (5th most in NFL), a 78.6% catch-rate (6th worst in NFL) and 9.4 yards per target (3rd worst in NFL). I’m not saying Hunter Henry is going to turn into Travis Kelce, but he does have value here. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-113) 

This is another game that I am fading the total points in. New England will do its best to slow  this game down to a crawl, while the Rams will try to get out of the gate quickly. In this scenario  it’s always best to air on the side of caution, and that means backing the home team and crowd  to keep the point total at bay. This isn’t ideal for L.A. who is on the road following a MNF game, and it goes against everything I believe in, but my goodness the Patriots are just terrible. 

Best Bet (Under 43.5 -112) 
Lean (Rams +3.5 -105)
Rams 20 Patriots 13

QB Jameis Winston

The gunslinger is out there again this week. The Saints are allowing the 5th most passing yards per game this season (258.5), despite allowing the 25th highest passer rating to QB’s. The Saints also don’t bring a good pass rush, ranking 29th in PFF grading. They still rank 10th highest in Turnover-Worthy Pass % (3.8%). That’s all it takes to consider this gunslinger’s INT prop, which he crushed for us last game guide. The other props for Winston feel about right here. Around 240 passing yards is where I’d project him given the matchup. There’s a chance they could lean on the rushing attack, in part, to keep Winston in check. I’ll grab the value on the INT prop and leave the passing yardage to a potential parlay piece.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-155)

RB Nick Chubb

Since coming back, his workload has been up and down. In his first week back, he held a 36% snap share. In his 2nd and 3rd weeks, he held a 61% and 35% snap share. I think it’s safe to say “he should” get a 60%+ snap share this week, given the matchup. The Saints have allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game this season (113.3%). Chubb does primarily run in the zone concept and the Saints defense allows the 2nd highest success rate to zone concepts this season (54.8%). The Saints also allows the most yards per carry this season (5.17) and dead last in run defensive grading. If not now… when?

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 60.5 Rushing Yards -113

WR Jerry Jeudy

This Saints defense is not a great coverage unit, especially after shipping out Lattimore. They rank 24th in coverage grading and 4th most receiving yards to WR’s per game (169.3). Jeudy is coming off back to back solid games with 79 and 73 receiving yards. From a target-share perspective, he is the WR1 in this offense after Cooper left for the Bills. Now, the Saints defense allows the 30th highest 1st-read percentage, and that’s why I like the receptions over the yardage prop. With that being said, they also allow the 5th highest yards per receptions (11.86). I like receptions here for Jeudy, but am looking at the next guy for yardage.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -160

WR Cedric Tillman

This man is interesting. Since the departure of Cooper and the installment of Winston. He has yardage totals of 81, 99 and 75 receiving yards. That’s much higher totals than his receiving yards this week - 55.5. Why? Well, he’s seen the field a lot more. After not seeing a snap rate over 40% in the first 6 games of the season, he’s seen 80+ in the last 3 games. He owns a solid 11 yards per reception and NO allows the 5th highest YPR this season. Surprisingly, he also owns the most receiving TD’s on this team, despite barely being involved in the first 6 games. Ultimately think the books are still underestimating this guy. The chemistry with Winston in clear and with Winston’s ability to air it out creates an opportunity to clear this mark in a few receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 55.5 Receiving Yards -105
1+ TD +180

TE David Njoku

Njoku has also been very involved since Winston took over. He’s been over this 50-yard receiving mark in two of his last three with Winston under center. In those three games, he has yet to have under 7 targets and 5 receptions. Despite only allowing the 21st most receptions to opposing TE’s per game (4.70), they do allow the 12th most receiving yards to TE’s per game (56.0). I don’t think I could consider over 5.5 receptions, but the receiving yards are intriguing. NO is allowing the 7th most yards per target and the second most yards after contact per reception (6.55). Njoku is a monster dude and YAC is a part of his game. He owns a 4.0 yards after contact per reception, which is very solid for a TE.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 49.5 Receiving Yards -110

QB Derek Carr

This is going to be a tough matchup for Carr. He has never been a guy that does well under pressure. CLE holds the 4th best pass rush this season, according to PFF grading, and the 3rd lowest time to pressure (2.35) in the league. They are allowing the 18th most passing yards per game (224.1) and only 1.33 passing TD’s per game. CLE’s defense has also allowed the 3rd fewest completions per game and the 7th fewest passing attempts. CLE’s defense also plays man coverage at the 4th highest rate. Carr will once again be without top WR options Olave and Shaheed. I think we could see a negative game script here if CLE’s defense holds this NO offense in check early. I’ll lean over his passing yards here. Carr has cleared this mark in 4 of 7 this season. 

Suggest Picks
‘O’ 204.5 Passing Yards

RB Alvin Kamara

Kamar can be used in so many ways and in some ways and is almost game script-proof. This is a tough matchup for him though. They are only allowing the 29th most rushing yards per game (122.6), 14th highest yards per carry (4.48), however, 2nd in explosive run %. That’s potentially in part due to the high man coverage they run. If his longest rush wasn’t so high, it would be worth considering here. In the last 6 games, he’s only cleared this rushing line of 73.5 once. It’ll be a tough ask here against a good CLE front. CLE’s defense does own the 6th highest TD rate to the rush. CLE doesn’t allow much via the pass to RB’s - 2nd fewest receptions per game (3.0) and 3rd lowest receiving yards per game (24.0). Kamara is just such an integral part of this passing attack and we can see the matchup discount in the line. From a passing perspective, I think the reception is the best look given how much he’s involved.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -150
‘U’ 73.5 Rushing Yards -115

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

What a game last week! Are we buying it though? 3 receptions on 3 targets for 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns. To be honest, I’m not. It's a thing to get a ton of volume and make the most of it, but it’s another to take advantage of blown coverages. No doubt MVS could be more involved here, especially given the continued injuries in this NO WR core. MVS is not a young gun, so we mostly know what we are getting out of him at this point. He holds a large drop % and is primarily a deep ball threat. CLE allowing the 30th highest catch rate and THE HIGHEST drop % in the league forced. Because of heavy man coverage, they can give up the bigger play. I’m just not worried about one monster performance from MVS. There are currently no other lines for another WR for the Saints, but I don’t think anyone is in consideration here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions -160

TE Juwan Johnson

Johnson, perhaps, is the other pass catcher in this offense worth looking at. He has 30+ receiving yards in 4 of his L6 and could be relied on again in this one. Over those past 6 games he only has under 3 targets once. Johnson holds a solid 11.2 yards per reception. He can be both an outlet pass, as well as someone that can move down the field. CLE is allowing the 6th fewest receiving yards to opposing TE’s and 6th fewest receptions per game. We have to treat this a little differently though, given the injuries to this passing offense. We are seeing as low as a 23.5 receiving yard line, which is a nice price given his involvement. Not to mention his reception line is at 2.5 with juice to the over. Besides shutting down Will Dissly last week, this defense did allow a combined 83 receiving yards to Andrew and Likely, as well as 67 receiving yards to backup TE, Grant Calcaterra, a few weeks prior. Given the pressure Carr could be under and the solid corners on the outside against “not great” WR’s, he could look to Johnson in the middle of the field.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 23.5 Receiving Yards -113

QB/RB/WR/TE Taysom Hill

Hill remains involved in the offense in a multitude of ways. He’s had 2+ catches in his last 3, to go laong with at least 4 carries as an RB. Even though the number is high, rushing and receiving feels like the way to attack this. If you had to pick just one, I’d lean on receiving. We’ve finally gotten a steady dose of Hill that we can project. He’s played between 40 and 45% of snaps over the last 3 weeks. We should see a similar snap rate here in this one. It was nice to see that despite the coaching change, they still kept Hill just as involved.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 48.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

The Saints came out and surprised last week, which is pretty predictable following a coaching change. Teams tend to come back down to earth shortly after and this looks like a great spot for them to do so as small favorites. There are just too many offensive weapons missing and with Jameis under center for CLE, they can put up points in a hurry. It really comes down to the defensive differences for me. CLE ranks 9th in defensive grading, while NO ranks 31st. Absolutely brutal and they’ve shipped off their best CB. I think the Browns through 6 makes a nice teaser leg with the under Certainly in play as well.

Best Bet (CLE ML -108)
Lean (‘U’ 45.5 Total Points)
Browns 23 Saints 20

QB Anthony Richardson

After benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco for the remainder of the season, Colts coach Shane Steichen makes the switch back after just two weeks. While it may have been a bizarre move to bench last year's fourth overall pick for a slow 39-year-old, but Richardson's benching was warranted. Of the 41 quarterbacks to appear in at least three games this season, Richardson has the third-worst PFF passing grade and the lowest completion percentage at just 44%. Now, this is a massive dip from his 59.5% he had last season. However, Richardson has the 31st most passing yards across those same 41 quarterbacks, indicating he's a deep ball thrower. He has the 19th-highest yards per attempt at 7.2 and the single-highest aDoT at 13.3 of all quarterbacks. But will he be able to exploit the deep ball against the Jets? The Jets allow the fifth-fewest pass attempts (27.8), second-fewest passing yards (189.7), and the fewest completions (16.7) to quarterbacks per game this season. But that's why this matchup might be perfect for Richardson. With the Jets allowing just 16.7 completions but still allowing nearly 200 passing yards, this indicates they're allowing a lot deep. The Jets defence allows the second-highest aDoT (9.8) and third-highest deep throw percentage (16.8%). The Jets run the 11th-most man coverage in the league (28.2%). Against man coverage, Richardson has the highest deep throw percentage (34%), and the highest aDoT (14.0). The stars are aligning for Richardson to succeed in what he's done at a high level this season; throw it deep. Richardson has a completion of 30+ yards in all six games he's appeared in this season, seeing a 40+ pass completion in three of six matchups.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 34.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115)

RB Jonathan Taylor

Despite poor quarterback play, Jonathan Taylor has had a very solid season. He's rushed for 616 yards on 126 attempts for a 4.9 yards per carry. He's had two down weeks with sub-50 rushing yards but has reached 80+ yards in the other five, with four of those games reaching the century mark. With running quarterback Richardson back under centre, how does that affect Taylor's stats? Well, he actually performs better, despite having the quarterback potentially steal touches from him. In five games with Richardson, Taylor has 80+ rush yards in four games. So, no issue there. This Jets rush defence is where you attack them. They allow the fourth most rush attempts (25.2) and the 11th-most rushing yards (116.7) per game to RBs. Taylor excels against man/gap scheme, averaging 5.53 yards per carry against that coverage, ranking as the third-highest across the league tied with Derrick Henry. Which aligns perfectly for Taylor as the Jets run the sixth-highest percentage of man/gap (44.8%) and a 4.72 yards per carry, compared to 3.61 against zone concept. What better way to alleviate some of the pressure on your young QB making his return than to feed your start RB against a poor Jets run defence. Taylor has seen 20+ rush attempts in four of the last five games, averaging 19.6 rushing attempts per game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 18.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Now, the Colts receiving game is a lot different with Richardson under centre than Flacco. However, his averages remain around the same between the two. Pittman with Richardson averages 3.5 receptions and 46.7 receiving yards, while with Flacco, he averages 3.2 receptions and 43 receiving yards. So, slightly a little bit better with Richardson. However, Pittman has not been the same lately as he's playing through a back injury. In the two games since his injury was announced, Pittman hasn't seen a dip in snap percentage, with 95% and 75% snap share. However, his production has vastly dipped, with just one reception in each game for 16 and 14 yards. Also, this Jets pass defence is no joke. They allow the fewest receptions (8.4) and the second-fewest receiving yards (111.2) to WRs per game. With the Jets running the eighth most man coverage (28.2%), this is a terrible matchup for Pittman, as he has the lowest PFF grade on the Colts against man coverage, catching just four of nine targets for a 44.4% catch rate. With his dip in usage in the offence against a tough pass defence who allow the fewest receptions per game, with Richardson at the helm, it won't be a good week for Pittman.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 2.5 Receptions (-105)

WR Josh Downs

While Pittman has struggled through this season, Josh Downs has emerged as a highly trusted weapon. Downs leads the Colts in targets (63) and receptions (45) and is second in receiving yards (483) per game this season, just behind deep threat Alec Pierce. As we've covered how often the Jets run man coverage, Downs against man coverage has the highest PFF grade, catching 9 of 13 targets for 151 receiving yards. Where we see the biggest discrepancy is Downs' splits with Flacco compared to with Richardson. With Flacco, Downs has recorded 60+ receiving yards in all six games, averaging 76.3 yards per game, while with Richardson, he's gone under 40 receiving yards in five of eight games. There are some boom games in there, clearing over 90 yards in two of those games – games where Flacco came in in relief – but without those games, on average, he's just posting 24.6 yards per game and 2.6 receptions. Now, we'll have to wait and see which of these receivers will catch Richardson's inevitable deep ball, whether that be Downs or not; we aren't expecting a big volume night from him.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 4.5 receptions (-150)

TE Mo-Allie Cox

We aren't going to go fully in-depth on Cox, considering he has just seven receptions for 100 receiving yards this season. Regardless, this matchup isn't ideal for any Colts TE, as the Jets allow the 12th fewest receiving yards to the position, averaging 44.3 yards per game. For a team that doesn't really utilize TEs, we're not going to expect much in a tough matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

QB Aaron Rodgers

What an ugly performance from Rodgers and the Jets last week. They were blown out 34-6 to the Cardinals in a game they were favoured. Rodgers went 22 for 35 for just 159 passing yards. And that was a preferred matchup as the Cardinals defence allowed the ninth most passing yards (242.44) and pass completions (22.1). He sees a similar matchup this week against the Colts, who allow the 13th most pass attempts (32.7), the eighth most completions (22.5) and the seventh most passing yards (251.3). Will we see another down performance from Rodgers? Or will he bounce back? The Colts run the second most zone coverage (88.9%). Due to the high percentage of run in that coverage, obviously they're going to average more yards against that scheme. However, they still struggle in that coverage in comparison to man coverage, where they allow the fourth most yards per attempt (8.5) in zone and the single-fewest yards per attempt (4.6) in man. Rodgers. Rodgers has faced the eighth most dropbacks against zone coverage but has the 23rd-highest yards per game (149.4) and 11th fewest yards per attempt (7.08). However, the fact remains that the Colts are starting an already struggling Anthony Richardson, and the ball should be in Rodgers' hands more often than not and is in a chance to take advantage of a weak pass defence in a bounceback matchup.

Suggested Pick:
250+ passing yards (+115)

RB Breece Hall

It was yet another disappointing week for Hall on the ground. On a yards-per-carry basis, he had a fine game with 5.2 yards per carry, finishing with 52 rush yards on 10 attempts. Now, maybe his low volume was due to a blowout, but the Jets need to get one of their best playmakers the ball more than 10 attempts if he's going to turn his year around in the back half of the season. This is the matchup to get Hall going, as the Colts run defence allow the second most rush attempts (27.4) and the fourth most rushing yards (118.2) to RBs this season. The Colts run about the same amount of zone concept and man/gap scheme (43.4% to 42.5%), but they allow a much higher yards per carry in man/gap (4.49) than zone concept (4.02). Which is perfect for Hall as he actually struggles against zone (3.69 yards per carry) but excels in man/gap (4.74 yards per carry). When you lose this big, sometimes you've just got to focus on the run game to then open up the passing game. The Jets should rely on their star RB in this matchup. Hall has gone recorded 70+ rushing yards in three of his last five games.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Garrett Wilson

We all thought that Wilson would see a decrease in volume once Adams was traded to the Jets. While that's true as Wilson averages just 8.3 targets per game compared to his 11.3 without Adams, his production has actually increased. Without Adams, Wilson averaged 66.5 receiving yards to 76.3 receiving yards with him in the lineup. You can chalk this up to easier matchups, probably? Regardless, it seems to be more of a benefit than a hindrance. The Colts allow the 12th most receptions (12) and the eighth-most receiving yards (158.4) per game to WRs. Indianapolis also runs the second most zone coverage (88.9%). Wilson is better against man coverage, but Wilson still is the best Jets WR vs zone coverage this season, catching 35 of 53 targets for 342 receiving yards. While he has the most receiving yards on the team against this coverage, he has the lowest yards per receptions at just 9.8 and the lowest aDoT of WRs (8.5). Wilson lines up all over the field but spends the majority of his time on the left side (41%) and will likely face the Colts CB Jaylon Jones, who plays 88% of his snaps lined up on the right. Jones has struggled this season, allowing a reception on 34 of his 50 times targetted for 503 yards – including back-to-back weeks where he's allowed a 100% catch rate against him for 151 receiving yards. Any way you slice it; he should have his work cut out for him against Wilson in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-155)

WR Davante Adams

Adams hasn't been the saviour the Jets expected him to be once he came over. And usually, it takes time for WRs to fully establish themselves in a new offence. However, this isn't really a new offence because he's catching passes from the same QB that got him his 30+ million per year contract. In the four games since coming over, Adams has gone over 55 yards once and under 40 yards twice, averaging 51.5 yards per game. His receptions are at a low five per game, but he still has 9.8 targets per game. So he's getting the ball but isn't producing with it. With the Colts running the second-most zone, this isn't really the matchup for Adams. He has a great catch rate, catching 75.7% of his targets, but his matchup against Samuel Womack doesn't bode well for a catching perspective as he has allowed just 11 receptions on 18 targets. Now, these numbers seem very low, so I figured he might not be a full time player. But since Week 3, Womack has averaged 67.7% of the snaps, capping out at 86% just last week. So he will be playing a lot and drawing the Adams matchup. However, this projects to be the worst pass defence Adams will face as a member of the Jets. And what better way to get your new acquisition going than getting him some confidence in the end zone?

Suggested Pick:
1+ TD (+120)

TE Tyler Conklin

Conklin continues to get fizzled out in this offence, as it's really just a two man show with Adams and Wilson. He was averaging six targets per game for the four weeks before the Adams trade, but after, Conklin has just averaged 2.8 targets per game. And that's reflected in his receiving yards, going from 43.8 per game to 13.5. He's also seen his snap count decrease from an average of 43 snaps per game before Adams to 31.3 after Adams. While the Colts are the best TE matchup Conklin has seen since the trade, as they allow the eighth-most receiving yards () per game, the decreased volume and snaps is discouraging to expect a bounceback until we see it first.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

We believed heavily in this Jets team last game, and that didn't pan out very well. Am I crazy for believing in a bounceback? Richardson back at QB, what are we expecting out of him? It's hard to tell, but I've got a heavy inclination that we'll see points in this matchup, given how both defence plays into the strong suits of both offences.

Best Bet: Over 43.5 -110
Lean: Jets -2.5 -160
Jets 30 Colts 17

QB Sam Darnold 

The million dollar question in Minnesota right now is “has Sam Darnold come back down to  earth?” And it’s certainly a legitimate a one. Since throwing 11 TD’s to 3 INT’s in first 4 weeks of  the season, the Vikings QB has passed for just 6 scores, while being picked off 7 times in the L5  games. He will be on the road to face Tennessee in week 11, and while the Titans are a  miserable 2-7 this season year, they have held their own on the defensive side of the ball. They  run zone-coverage at a 72.7% rate (10th highest in NFL), and 56.7% of their defense is marked  by cover 3 and cover 4. Against these schemes Darnold has completed 78 of 104 (75.0% CMP) for 832 yards, while tossing 4 TD and 4 INT. The MIN starting QB has had issues with sacks and  turnovers all season. Tennessee has a Pressure-Rate of 31.5% (15th in the NFL), and Darnold has  went down 26 times this season. The Titans pass defense has been excellent all season. They  are allow the fewest passing YPG (171.4) of any team in the league, 2nd fewest YPA (6.2) and 2nd fewest YPCP (9.7). Darnold is a clear pass this week in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

RB Aaron Jones 

Aaron Jones was carted off the field last week, but he managed to return at the tail end of the  game and he is planning to be on the field this Sunday. He will face a TEN defense who is  allowing 3.8 YPC to opposing RB’s (4th fewest in NFL), but they have a propensity for getting  tired late, mostly due to being on the field for extended periods of time. The value on Jones in  this game will be as a pass catcher. He’s garnered the 3rd most targets, and has just one less  than Jordan Addison who is the team’s #2 wide receiver. Jones has been efficient in this area,  catching 28 of 32 balls (87.5%) for an average of 28.7 RYPG. TEN has been good in this area as  well, but with Justin Jefferson as his only true reliable wide out, Darnold will be forced to rely  on Jones for some check downs. He should pick up 3 catches here, but I would avoid the yards  as the Titans allow just 24.0 YPG to running backs in the passing game. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 2.5 Receptions (-114) 

WR Justin Jefferson 

Justin Jefferson is the one reliable player in this Vikings offense. Against cover 3 and 4 defenses  he has an 80.6% CR, hauling in 29 of 36 targets for 373 yards. I must say I’m a little concerned  about Jefferson on the road this Sunday. He will go up against a Titans pass defense who have  allowed just 3 of 26 (11.5%) deep targets to be caught (lowest in NFL), and he will line up across  from Jarvis Brownlee Jr., who has given up 2 of those. The good news here for JJ is Tennessee  does rank in the top 10 in two-high looks, where the MIN receiver is seeing 36.5% of those  targets on said routes. The Titans have faced Tyreek Hill (4-23-0), Amon-Ra St. Brown (2-52-0),  Garrett Wilson (4-57-0), Ladd McConkey (2-52-0) and Jayden Reed (4-50-0), and clearly held  their own. I absolutely hate to fade Jefferson here, especially coming off a 5-48 performance at  Jacksonville, but even the best can have poor outputs in back-to-back weeks, and we saw this happen to him last year when he had B2B games of 28 and 27 yards. Ironically, both of those came on the road against AFC opponents, and we are staring that exact same scenario right  squarely in the face again in ’24. This will not be a popular pick, nor is it one I want to make, but  I don’t see this trending well, and 81.5 yards is a significantly large number. I have to fade JJ. 

Suggested Pick 
Under 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113) 

WR Jordan Addison 

Jordan Addison has caught less balls than RB Aaron Jones, so that says a lot in and of itself. In  addition to that, Addison has been targeted just 11 times (13.9%) vs cover 3 and 4 where he has  8 catches for 89 yards. He will also go up against Darrell Baker Jr., who has surrendered just 7  receptions on 14 targets for 27 yards this season in the 5 games he’s played. I expect him to  switch off on Jefferson, but regardless I’m not putting any stock in Addison to produce. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE T.J. Hockenson 

Somebody has to catch some balls against the Titans on Sunday, and this is where T.J. Hockeson  comes in. In his first game of the season two weeks ago he caught 3 of 4 targets for 27 yards,  but followed it up with an 8-catch, 72 yard performance at Jacksonville. Looking at the stats, it  would appear the Titans offer him a much more difficult matchup. TEN ranks among the top 5  defenses in the league vs TE in both receiving YPG (36.4) and receptions (4.3). But these  numbers are incredibly deceptive due to the beginning of the season when the Titans faced  some of the league’s worst and least used TE’s. In their L4 weeks they have allowed Will Dissly  (5-30), Hunter Henry (7-56), Sam LaPorta (6-48-1) and Dalton Kincaid (3-54) to have solid  games. Justin Jefferson is going to be Tennessee’s primary focus, and Hockenson will benefit. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Over 3.5 Receptions (-176)
ALT Receptions
5+ (+116)
6+ (+210)
7+ (+370) 

QB Will Levis 

Will Levis threw a late garbage TD last Sunday against the Chargers to disguise his performance  as NFL-caliber, but Levis is simply not a good QB, and he doesn’t match up well against a Vikings  defense that has allowed just 7 and 13 points over it L2 games. Granted, this was against IND  and JAX, but the Titans are even worse offensively. Minnesota runs zone-coverage at the 4th highest rate in the NFL (77.0%), and this includes a well-balanced mix of cover 2 (26.5%), cover 3 (22.5%) and cover 4 (23.3%). Against these defensive sets, Levis has completed 71 of 104  passes (68.3%) for 612 yards. This doesn’t appear terrible on paper until you factor in the  Vikings have the 5th highest Pressure-rate in the league at 35.2%. And when Levis is pressured the results are in a word, AWFUL. His completion rate drops to 50% and he spends more time  on his back than on his feet. The Titans QB was sacked 7 times last week, and in 3 starts prior to  that he went down 8, 4 and 3 times. Tennessee has clearly shown they are willing to settle for  low-scoring games and hope their defense can make a play or two. We could see a game of epic  proportions on the negative end for Levis, who has been picked off once in every game he’s  played with the exception of last week. Don’t expect that to happen again when he faces a  Minnesota DEF, who leads the NFL with 15 INT’s. Get him to throw an interception ASAP!! 

Suggested Pick 
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-145) 

RB Tony Pollard 

The return of Tajae Spears really put a damper on Tony Pollard’s production. He maintained his  efficiency on the touches he got, but he handled just 56.5% of the work out of the backfield.  That’s down from the 80.0% he was getting prior to the return of Spears. This should come as  no surprise, however when Brian Callahan made it clear he wanted to reduce Pollard’s  workload. We are clearly stuck in running back by committee quicksand, and to make matters  worse, the Vikings are not a good matchup for RB’s to begin with. They have the 2nd stingiest  run defense in the league, allowing just 79.0 YPG to opposing backs on 3.76 YPC (3rd fewest). 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Calvin Ridley 

Calvin Ridley is the only receiver on this team who has a pulse. Since the departure of DeAndre  Hopkins, Ridley has dominated the target share in Tennessee, notching 9, 8 and 15 over the  past 3 games. He’s also getting 50% of the Titans air yards, which is the highest of any player in  the NFL. The negative side here is Ridley is going to be matched up across from Shaquill Griffith. He’s only been targeted 23 times in 9 games this season, where he’s allowed 11 receptions, and  hasn’t surrendered more than 4 catches to any opposing receiver this season. This should  explain why Ridley’s receiving yards line is set so low for this week. Be wise, and pass on him. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 

Tyler Boyd was just added to the injury report with a back injury, and is now listed as  questionable for Sunday’s contest against the Vikings. Monitor his availability if you wish, but  he has no value here. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is the next option in line here. He caught all 3 of  his targets for 31 yards last week, and on the positive side he’s been on the field for every dropback since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. He will go against Stephon Gilmore who has been  thrown at all year. He’s allowed 39 receptions on 57 targets, allowing 9.9 YPR. There is some  real upside to Westbrook-Ikhine in this game as Ridley will be attracting most of the Vikings  attention. Against Minnesota’s primary zone-coverages, he’s hauled in 7 of 8 passes for 69  yards, with 21 of those coming after the catch. Of the 386 yards that Vikings CB Stephon  Gilmore has surrendered this season, 149 of them have come after the catch. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
ALT Receiving Yards
40+ (+210)
50+ (+320) 

TE Chig Okonkwo 

After showing some promise with 4, 5 and 4 targets, Chig Okonkwo was disappointing last week  catching just 1 ball for 14 yards on the only one thrown his way. The Vikings rank in the top 10  in defending TE’s in both yards and receptions. Chig may bounce back, but with a target share  of just 11.2% he is to inconsistent, and most importantly to irrelevant in this offense to play. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

Last week I ran an ALT play for the Titans to score 10 points or less, and a meaningless trash  touchdown prevented that from happening. I think Tennessee will struggle to score against  Minnesota here. It’s hard enough for them to sustain drives, but when you factor in the number  of turnovers the Vikings cause, it complicates things even more. Tennessee has a solid defense  as well, and that will keep this game close, but don’t expect many points in this one 

Best Bet (Under 39.5 -115) 
Lean (Vikings -5.5 -120)
Vikings 20 Titans 13

QB Gardner Minshew 

Two days ago, HC Antonio Pierce announced that Gardner Minshew would get the start for the  Raiders on Sunday. His reward will be facing a Miami defense that allows the 2nd fewest passing  YPG (202.7) and 3rd fewest passing TD’s (8). That’s not a good sign for Minshew who comes into  this game with a 6:8 TD to INT ratio. The Dolphins use zone-coverage on 69.6% of its defensive snaps, and run cover 3 (32.8%) and cover 1-man (20.1%) as their 2 primary schemes. Minshew has completed 75 of 120 passes (62.5%) for an average of just 97.6 passing YPG to go with only  1 TD and 6 INT’s against these coverages. The Dolphins rank near the middle of the pack in  pressure rate at 31.1%, but they will look like a top 5 defense this week against an atrocious Las  Vegas O-line that has allowed Minshew to be sacked 23 times. It’s hard to fathom how many  picks he would have if he didn’t take so many sacks. That said, Minshew has thrown an  interception in 6 of his 8 starts, and all but one of those have come on the road. In addition, ¾ of his INT’s have come against the two defenses MIA runs most. He escaped CIN last week  without getting picked off, and he hasn’t went 2 consecutive weeks without one this year. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-125) 

RB Alexander Mattison 

Prior to its bye week, Las Vegas shifted to a 3-man backfield that was headed by Mattison, and  in that game he was on the field for only 23 snaps, where he touched the ball just 9x for 36  yards. And this is not the result of a running back by committee approach either. You can lay  the blame wherever you want, but the bottom line is Alexander Mattison has been one of the most ineffective starting RBs this season. He’s rushed for only 303 yards, while averaging just  3.3 YPC. The Dolphins allow exactly 100.0 rush YPG to opposing RB’s (11th fewest in NFL). The one area of value against Miami is they’ve allowed the 4th most rushing TD’s in the league (10),  but that is nullified by the fact that Mattison has only found the end zone 3 times all season.  

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Jakobi Meyers 

Jakobi Meyers is the most trustworthy among a very limited Las Vegas receiving core. Last week he had a season-high in targets (11), receptions (8) and yards (105), and has seen the biggest  spike in production since Davonte Adams was traded to the NYJ. Meyers also gets more targets  when Gardner Minshew is behind center (29.6%) than any of the other Raiders QB’s. Against  cover 3 and cover 1-man, Meyers has 26-250-TD on 37 targets (70.3%), but this Sunday he will  be matched up with Jalen Ramsey, who has allowed a total of just 195 yards to opposing WR’s  this season. The Dolphins CB has been targeted only 29 times, where he’s surrendered 20  receptions. Miami has allowed just 4 wide receivers to catch 6 balls or more this year, but 3  have come since Tua’s return. This is because the Dolphins like to strike quickly when they have  the ball. LV will likely be trailing for most of this game, and that should allow Meyers to clear  the suggested line, even if it takes some late garbage time in order to get there.

Suggested Pick
Over 5.5 Receptions (+102) 

WR Tre Tucker 

Tre Tucker has caught only 25 of his 44 targets (56.8% CR) for 257 yards, and his production has  actually worsened since the departure of Davonte Adams. Tucker peaked in weeks 3 and 4,  where he caught 7-96 and 5-41. Since then, Tucker has totaled 2, 0, 3, 2, 2 receptions, while  averaging a mere 17 yards/gm. When facing cover 3 and cover 1-man, Tucker has caught only  12 of his 25 targeted balls for 132 yards. He will line up across from Cam Smith who has been  targeted 15 times, allowing 13 receptions for 139 yards. Receivers have taken advantage of him  over the L3 weeks, but I just have no faith in Tre Tucker and his lines are too low to fade. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Brock Bowers 

Brock Bowers leads the Raiders this season in targets (73), receptions (57) and yards (580). He  leads the team in overall target share at 24.5%, but since Jakobi Meyers has returned we’re not  seeing him put up numbers in mass quantities. Still, the Las Vegas TE has been better against zone-coverage. He’s being targeted on 30.6% of such routes as opposed to 19.6% against man. But, the Dolphins have been effective all year against this position outside of Trey McBride.  They’re allowing the 7th fewest receptions (4.8/gm) and 9th fewest yards (42.9/gm) in the NFL.  Bowers has been one of the better TE’s in the league, but it’s hard to ignore his fallout in overall  production since the return of Jakobi Meyers. I’m using this week to monitor how LV uses him. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

QB Tua Tagovailoa 

The good news for Tua Tagovailoa is that Miami is playing a terrible Raiders team. The bad  news is they are coming off a bye, and that allows even the worst of teams to come back  healthier, better prepared and more inspired. Las Vegas runs zone-coverage at the 8th lowest  rate (60.7%) in the NFL. Like Miami, the Raiders play cover 3 (29.2%) and cover 1-man (21.1%)  on the majority of its defensive snaps. This is a week that Tua could recapture some of his old  magic though, as Las Vegas has the 5th worst Pressure-Rate in the league. When the Dolphins  QB has a clean pocket he is completing 67% of his passes, but even when teams do get to him,  he’s connecting with his receivers at a 70% rate. With all that said, the Raiders rank in the top  one-third of the league in PYPG allowed at 211.6, and I think Tua’s production this week is going  to suffer at the hands of a big game by De’Von Achane, along with Las Vegas fresh off a bye. 

Suggested Pick 

Pass

RB De’Von Achane 

De’Von Achane has been outstanding when he is paired with Tua Tagovailoa. His usage on MNF, where he handled 70.8% of Miami’s backfield touches, further solidified his role as the  clear lead back. With Raheem Mostert taking a backseat and playing only 8 snaps in that game,  it’s clear that Achane is the preferred option in the Dolphins offense. Looking ahead to his  matchup against Las Vegas, he has a very favorable scenario. The Raiders give up 4.64 YPC to  opposing running backs, ranking them just 24th in the league, while allowing 5.0 receptions per  game to RB’s. This bodes well for Achane, who has been heavily involved in both the ground  game and passing attack. Over his L3 games with Tua at quarterback, Achane has caught 5, 8  and 6 passes with a strong 20.4% target rate, which should lead to another productive outing  through the air. Additionally, LV has surrendered 10 total TD’s to the RB position in ’24, further  boosting the likelihood that Achane finds pay dirt in this one. Given his expanded role, both as a rusher and pass-catcher, his total yards from scrimmage as well as his total receptions are all  must plays this week against a downtrodden Raiders team. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 99.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-113)
Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)
ALT Receptions (TBD)
Anytime TD (-125) 

WR Tyreek Hill 

Apparently Tyreek Hill has been nursing a wrist injury, but I’m skeptical has much to do with his  lack of production on the season. With good reason, many are down on Tyreek right now, but  he is due to reconnect with Tua. While the Raiders defense has shown improvement in certain  areas, they are still prone to explosive plays. Hill’s speed is a major asset against cover 3, as he  can exploit the spaces between the deep zone defenders. LV’s lack of pressure should increase  his chances of stretching the field here. Between the aforementioned cover 3 and cover 1-man,  Hill has caught 16 of 28 balls for 269 yards and 1 TD. He has a favorable matchup against CB  Jack Jones who has been targeted 36 times this season, where he’s allowed 24 receptions for  295 yards (12.3 YPC). Jones has the ability to stay competitive in this matchup, but he’s  vulnerable to big plays over his L3 games, allowing longs of 47, 21 and 37 yards. The key here  for Hill’s receiving yards will be whether Jones can disrupt him early in his routes. I know many  are down on Tyreek right now, especially after last Monday, but in his 2 games prior in Tua’s  return he posted games of 80 and 72 yards, and how often do we ever get a line of 69.5 for a  player of Tyreek Hill’s talent. I like him to go over this number, and while it’s tempting to run his  ALT receiving yards, the Raiders have held their own against elite WR’s this year. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Over 24.5 Longest Reception (-118)

WR Jaylen Waddle 

Jalen Waddle came out strong on Monday night, where he caught 2 passes on the very first  drive of the game for 55 yards, but he was literally non-existent beyond that as he ended the  game with 3 receptions for 56 yards on 6 total targets. Waddle has been targeted on just 16.9%  of his routes, the lowest of his career. One would assume this is a result of Tua Tagovailoa  missing so many games due to injury, but his numbers are actually more disturbing when Tua is  behind center, where he’s been targeted slightly less (16.1%). Waddle has caught 14 of 18 balls  for 171 yards vs the 2 primary coverages Las Vegas runs, but this is a pretty small sample size.  He will line up across from Jakorian Bennett who’s allowed 18 receptions for 176 yards on 38  times targeted. He’s allowing an average of just 19.5 YPG, and has given up 30 or more yards  just twice all season. Waddle has an advantage in terms of experience and pure athleticism, but  Bennett’s physicality will be an issue for Waddle to create separation in this game. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Jonnu Smith 

This is a good spot for Jonnu Smith who is facing a Raiders defense that allowing the 10th most  receiving yards (60.2 YPG) and 9th most receptions (5.9 RPG) to TE’s. He caught 3 of 4 targets on  Monday night for 45 yards, but the Rams allow the 8th fewest receptions per game to the TE  position. Prior to that game Smith caught has 5 (6 TGT), 4 (6 TGT), 7 (7 TGT) and 5 (8 TGT), and  HC Josh McDaniels is clearly making it a point to protect his quarterback right now. Opposing  teams are going after the Raiders at this position, who allow a catch rate of 82.8% (2nd worst),  while giving up 8.5 YPT (7th worst). In Smith’s last 4 games he has hauled in 19 of his 23 targets  (82.6%), which is right at what LV allows. He will see more than 4 targets in this game, and  Smith is one of the better TE’s at picking up YAC. 54.8% of his yards have come after the catch. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Over 3.5 Receptions (+118) 

I definitely like the Dolphins in this game, but it cannot be ignored that Las Vegas is coming off a  bye this week. The Raiders have been boom or bust against the spread this year, but even with  two weeks to prepare it’s hard to look past 5 losses coming by an average of 16 points. I’ll take  my chances with a Dolphins who are LONG overdue to have a solid performance at home. 

Best Bet (Dolphins -6.5 -115) 
Lean (Over 43.5 -115) 
Dolphins 27 Raiders 17

QB Jordan Love

Love averages 260 passing yards per game, 7.58 YPA and has thrown 15 TDs. He’ll face a Bears defense that has the 8^th highest pressure rate over expectations. When pressured, Love averages 6.42 YPA, compared to 8.02 YPA in a clean pocket. The Bears play single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and allow the 3^rd least fantasy points per dropback in this scheme. Love averages 8.36 YPA and has a 77.2 QB rating against single-high. This compares to 6.85 YPA and a 98.5 QB rating against two-high. The Bears also allow the least passing TDs per game (0.67) in the league. Love threw for 2+ TDs in his first 5 games but hasn’t thrown a TD pass in the past 2 weeks against the Jaguars and Lions. He threw for 245 yards and 316 yards last year against their division rival, with 3 and 2 passing touchdowns respectively.

Suggested Picks
“U” 1.5 Pass TD (-102)
“U” 235.5 Pass Yds (-115)

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs averages 84.7 rushing yards per game, 5^th highest in the NFL. He’s averaging 4.82 YPC and has rushed for 3 TDs. The Bears allow the 5^th highest YPC (4.85) but the 9^th most rush yards per game overall. They have been susceptible to explosive runs, as 6.5% of rush attempts have gone for 15+ yards against them (4^th highest). The Bears have been worse against man/gap concepts, as they are allowing a 54% success rate (7^th highest). That compares to a 47.7% success rate against zone concepts (12^th lowest). 48.1% of Jacobs’ attempts have come in man/gap concepts, and he’s averaging 4.86 YPC. That compares to 4.80 YPC on 51.3% of his attempts in zone concepts. Turning to the receiving game, Jacobs averages 14.2 receiving YPG. The Bears allow the 5^th least receiving YPG to opposing RBs.

Suggested Picks
“O” 68.5 Rush Yds (-110)

WR Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed has been inconsistent, but he is averaging 68.9 receiving yards per game, 2.84 YPRR and a 22% target per route run rate. He faces a Bears defense allowing the 6^th least receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Bears play single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and allow the 3^rd least fantasy points per dropback in this scheme. Reed averages 3.18 YPRR, 20% TPRR and an 18.8% 1^st-read rate against single-high. He lines up in the slot on 79.4% of his routes. The Bears currently allow the 11^th least YPRR against the slot. Jayden averages 80.1 receiving YPG with Jordan Love this season, compared to 29.5 receiving YPG without him. With a relatively low line of 48.5, I lean over, despite the unfavorable matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 48.5 Rec Yds (-117)

WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs is currently 2^nd in receiving for the Packers, averaging 51.5 receiving yards per game. He averages 1.87 YPRR, has been targeted on 20% of his routes, and leads the Packers in 1^st-read rate (22.5%). He has been used more as a downfield threat, with an aDOT of 12.5 yards, compared to Reed’s 8.4. He leads the Packers in air yard share (26.4%). He faces a Bears defense allowing the 6^th least receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Bears play single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and allow the 3^rd least fantasy points per dropback in this scheme. Against single-high, Doubs averages 2.4 YPRR and leads the Packers in 1^st read rate at 25.3%. Doubs has lined up out wide on 85.9% of his routes. The Bears allow the 13^th least receiving yards per game to outside aligned receivers.

Suggested Pick
“U” 3.5 Rec (+106)

TE Tucker Kraft

Kraft has had a nice season, averaging 41.8 receiving yards per game, averaging 1.74 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. He has run a route on 71.1% of dropbacks, relatively high for a TE. The Bears currently allow the 10^th most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. He has lined up inline 56% of the time and in the slot on 31.9% of his routes. The Bears allow the 3^rd highest target share to inline (13.5%), but the 19^th highest target share against the slot (31.4%). The Bears play single-high at the 6^th highest rate in the league (58.8%) and allow the 3^rd least fantasy points per dropback in this scheme. Kraft averages 1.50 YPRR and a 14% TPRR against single-high. Kraft has been utilized as an underneath guy, with the lowest aDOT on the team at 4.5 yards.

Suggested Pick
“O” 33.5 Rec Yds (-120)

QB Caleb Williams

Caleb is averaging 198.3 passing yards per game, 607 YPA and has thrown 9 TDs. He is also averaging 26.2 rush yards per game. The Packers are league average in passing yards allowed per game (225.6 YPG) and allow the 8^th least rush yards per game to opposing QBs (15.33). They are also right around league average in passing TDs per game (1.44). The Packers are 18^th in pressure rate over expected. They run zone coverage at a 72.4% frequency and run single-high 54.5% of the time. Caleb averages 6.38 YPA and has a 79.4 QB rating against zone coverage. The Packers allow the 6^th highest frequency of deep throws (12.4%) and Caleb throws the 6^th highest frequency of deep throws amongst qualifying QBs (13.9%). However, Caleb has only connected on 19.5% of his throws 20+ yards downfield, only better than Deshaun Watson and Jacoby Brissett.

Suggested Pick
“O” 190.5 Pass Yds (-114)

RB D’Andre Swift

Since Week 4, Swift averages 82.7 rush yards per game, has rushed for 4 TDs, and averages 4.77 YPC. His 104 attempts are the 11th highest since week 4. He’ll face a Packers defense that allows the 7^th least YPC (4.24). However, they have been susceptible to big plays, as they allow the 7^th highest explosive run rate (6.3%). 33.3% of Swift’s rush yards have come from explosive runs. Swift has had much more success in man/gap concepts, with a 52.5% success rate. That compares to only a 35.6% success rate in zone concepts. The Packers are average in both categories, allowing a 47.9% and 48.6% success rate respectively. The Packers also allow the 10^th most receiving yards to opposing RBs (37.78 YPG). Swift’s averaging 25.6 receiving yards per game. His rush line is kind of high at 65.5 in a tougher matchup, but I see some value in his receiving line at 16.5.

Suggested Pick
“O” 16.5 Rec Yds (-111)

WR Rome Odunze

Odunze averages 46 receiving yards per game, 1.47 YPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 20.2%. However, in his 3 games post-bye, he leads the Bears in receiving with 56 YPG. His 1^st-read rate is also trending up, at 26%, which is more in line with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen at 28% and 30% respectively. He’ll face a Packers defense that allows the 12^th least receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. They run zone coverage at a 72.4% frequency and run single-high 54.5% of the time. Odunze leads the Bears in YPRR (1.79) against zone coverage. He also leads the Bears in YPRR against single-high (1.55). He has lined up out wide on two-thirds of his routes and one-third in the slot. The Packers allow the 4^th highest target share to the slot (36.6%), but the 3^rd lowest target share out wide (34.7%). Despite the lower snap share than Kmet and Keenan Allen, Odunze has been most effective in the slot. He leads the Bears in receiving yards out of the slot (190), as well as YPRR (2.00) and 1^st-read rate (25.4%). After offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was just fired, I could see Thomas Brown, who has taken over the job, lean into that success and line up Odunze from the slot at a higher rate.

Suggested Picks
“O” 33.5 Rec Yds (-110)
40+ Rec Yds (+130)
50+ Rec Yds (+215)
60+ Rec Yds (+330)
70+ Rec Yds (+500)
80+ Rec Yds (+800)
90 + Rec Yds (+1200)

WR DJ Moore

Moore is averaging 44.2 receiving yards per game, 1.22 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He leads the Bears in 1^st-read rate at 28.1%, but that has shifted a bit post-bye, with the rookie Odunze getting a larger chunk of 1^st-reads. He’ll face a Packers defense that allows the 12^th least receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. They run zone coverage at a 72.4% frequency and run single-high 54.5% of the time. Against zone coverage, DJ averages 1.19 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. Against single-high, Moore averages 1.05 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. Moore has primarily run his routes from out wide, with 72.8% of his routes coming from this alignment. The Packers allow the 3^rd lowest target share out wide (34.7%). Moore’s receiving line is set at 42.5, which he’s been under in 4 straight. He’s always capable of a big play, so I don’t love either side. I do like his under for receptions at 4.5, but it’s juiced at -175.

Suggested Picks
“U” 4.5 Rec (-175) *Parlay Piece

TE Cole Kmet

Kmet averages 35.1 receiving yards per game, 1.49 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. He has a route rate participation of 59.7%, as he spends some of his time blocking. The Packers are allowing the 11^th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. They run zone coverage at a 72.4% frequency and run single-high 54.5% of the time. Against zone coverage, Kmet is 2^nd on the Bears in YPRR behind Odunze (1.58). Kmet lines up all over on his routes, 57.1% frequency from the slot, 30.2% inline and 8% out wide. The Packers allow the 4^th highest target share to the slot (36.6%) and the 13^th lowest target share to inline (10.9%). He has only been targeted 5 times in his L3 games, but I could see him bouncing back in this game with a new offensive coordinator for the Bears. This should help elevate the entire offense, don’t think it could get much worse. He had 44 and 41 receiving yards L2 matchups against the division rival.

Suggested Pick
“O” 24.5 Rec Yds (-119)

The Bears have been abysmal offensively, especially considering they drafted one of the top QB prospects of all time and they have a plethora of offensive weapons. Due to their struggles, they fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after just 9 games. Thomas Brown will take over, and I expect him to make some improvements. Hard to see this offense getting any worse. As a result, I predict more points than expected being scored in this game. The Packers have a good offense themselves, and a 40.5 line feels too low. I’ll take the Bears with points as well. Coaching changes typically fire up the players and this team has talent.

Best Bet (Over 39.5 -125)
Lean (Bears +5.5 -115)
Packers 23 Bears 20 

QB Kirk Cousins

Cousins hasn’t been great of late. Last week despite throwing for over 300 yards, he didn’t record a passing touchdown. Now he faces a DEN defense that has allowed the 17th most passing yards per game (212.4) and 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed (1.20). DEN plays a lot of man coverage, ranking 5th highest in the league this season (37.8%). DEN also ranks 8th in pass rush grading and 9th in pass rush grading. Cousins has struggled under pressure this season. He holds a 5:5 TD to INT ratio and his passer rating drops from 98.9 to 81.6. He relies more heavily on later reads, which is interesting. While holding a 66.4% 1st-read rate on the season, it drops to 46.5% while under pressure. I think what that means is he is trusting his 1st-read to develop separation, if given the time. Otherwise, he’ll look to dump off or find a shorter open WR. Generally, Cousins numbers look similar in some aspects between zone and man. However, it should be noted he has a 5:5 TD to INT ratio. A lot of what I’m seeing supports the under-passing TD market.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -130

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan is likely matchup proof, but it still matters. He's being given a relatively conservative line at 65.5 rushing yards. That’s likely how good DEN’s defense has been and how involved Allgeier remains. Bijan has had 60+ receiving yards in his last 6 and has cleared 65 rushing yards in 4 of L5. As we know, Nijan runs primarily in the zone running scheme. DEN has been really good against zone this season, allowing just a 35.2% success rate, ranking 2nd best only behind KC. In all honesty, they aren’t much worse vs man/gap, ranking 9th best. DEN has allowed the 9th fewest rushing yards per game this season. Passing yards is a different story. DEN has allowed the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s (43.8 yards per game) and the 2nd highest checkdown % allowed per game (12.5%).

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 67.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
‘O’ 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

RB Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier is primarily a rusher for ATL. With DEN stout against, it’s hard to consider backing him here. He has 0 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games. His 29.5 rushing yards line is low, but I’ll fade it here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 29.5 Rushing Yards -113

WR Drake London

London has gotten more looks versus man coverage this season. While only holding a 23.3% target share vs zone, he owns a 31% target share vs man coverage. But, Patrick Surtain II just locked in a big extension and should see plenty of London this week. Despite falling below this mark in 2 of his L3, he has cleared this 62.5 line in 6 of his L8. He’s clearly the #1 option in this offense, but it tough to look at his over given the matchup. As I mentioned, he’s cleared this mark in 6 of L8, but has only  cleared 70 yards in 3 of those. I’ll look at an under here or pass.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Darnell Mooney

Mooney will get the secondary coverage primarily, which ha also been good, but obviously better for him. Mooney has been on a tear with 80+ receiving games in each of the last 3. DEN allows the 18th highest 1st-read %, so Mooney will likely be in play here. Given that Kirk will likely be under more pressure, the 2nd and third reads may be more of a look. I think Mooney remains a threat in this one and would look towards his overs, rather than his under given his play play ability.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 55.5 Receiving Yards -115

TE Kyle Pitts

The volume and looks just haven’t been there for Pitts. He has only owned a 20% target share in one out of 10 games this season. He has only been targeted more than 5 times in a game 3 times this season. Yes, he’s been over this mark in 5 of his L6, but this looks like a matchup to fall under. DEN is middle-of-the-pack team vs TE’s in terms of receiving yards allowed, but 9th in receptions allowed. Like I’ve said, that’s just really not Pitts’ game. He’s a YAC guy and with the low volume, it’s tough to get on boards with over 3.5 receptions. He’s a fade for me this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 44.5 Receiving Yards -110

QB Bo Nix

ALT does not do a good job of getting pressure. They rank 24th in pressure rate, grade out as the 31st best pass rushing unit and have just 3 sacks on the season. ATL has also allowed the highest completion % to opposing QBs this season at 70.4%. Here are Bo Nix’s number with and without pressure: With: 39.2% Completion Rate, 36.0 Passer Rating, 6.3% Turnover-Worthy Throw Rate, 0:3 TD to INT ratio Without: 71.4% Completion Rate, 98.1 Passer Rating, 1.2% Turnover-Worthy Throw Rate,10:3 TS to INT ratio Stark splits are expected from a rookie, but these are massive splits. ATL’s coverage unit is still pretty good, ranked 7th best according to PFF grading. That’s why ATL is allowing the 3rd most completions per game, but 17th most passing yards per game. The Falcons are also allowing the 3rd most rushing yards to QB’s per game this season and we know that Nix has some wheels. Nix has been a boom or bust runner though. He’s had 35+ rushing yards in 5 of 10 games, but also less than 10 four times. If there is a matchup where he runs, it makes sense it would be this one.

Suggest Picks
‘O’ 19.5 Passing Completions -115
‘O’ 26.5 Rushing Yards -113

RB Audric Estime

Coach Sean Payton said he was looking to get Estime more carries last week and he was a man of his word. Here was the carry split last week: Estime (14 carries), McLaughlin (2 carries) and Williams (1 carry). Looks like he clearly took over the backfield last week, but it's hard to lean on a one-week sample size. ATL is a solid run defense, ranking 17th in run defensive grading and have allowed the 20th most rushing yards per game (90.2). They do allow the 11th highest explosive run rate (5.9%). They do barely allow rushing touchdowns, with the 31st highest TD rate, only in front of the Chargers. The books have clearly bought into Estime leading this backfield with a 57.5 rushing yards line and a +170 for a TD. I’m just not convinced yet after just one week that this isn’t a more even split backfield. If they find themselves trailing early, we’ll probably see more of Williams in passing situations.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 57.5 Rushing Yards -110
‘U’ 12.5 Rushing Attempts -102

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte clearly lost a lot of his rushing work last week, but still played the most passing snaps (9 snaps) and reeled in a couple catches for 6 yards. Williams is more of a power back than Estime or McLaughlin, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him continue to get more goal line/short yardage work. With Williams on the field for just 17 snaps last week with a single carry and 2 targets, there just isn’t much to expect from him here. We don’t have any lines for him up, but I’d imagine they will be low given where Estime’s lines are at. ATL does allow the 4th highest target rate to the backfield (18.4%). He’s likely just a full stay away for me until we get more data post-RB shuffle.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Courtland Sutton

This man has been absolutely on fire of late. Here are his last 3 games: 6 catches for 70 yards on 9 targets, 7 for 110 yards on 10 targets and 8 for 100 on 11 targets. He owned a 29%+ target share in all three of those games. ATL plays zone coverage at the 6th highest rate this season (74.3%). Sutton has been great against zone with a 14.1 aDOT, 22.6% target share, and a 62.3% CTGT % (target share the WR had an opportunity to catch). Of course, with Nix being better under less pressure throughout the game will also help Sutton. As you could expect, Sutton has a high 1st-read rate on this team as the primary target. ATL is allowing the 9th highest 1st-read % (74.7%) this season. ATL hasn’t played a whole lot of true WR 1’s the last few weeks (at least along with a starting QB), but we just saw MVS go for 3 catches for 109 receiving yards and 2 touchdown (3 targets) and DK Metcalf went for 99 receiving yards and a touchdown on 4 catches (7 targets). We also saw guys like Diontae Johnson (6 for 78, TD), Olave (8 for 87) and Rice (12 for 110, TD) have nice games earlier in the season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -115
‘O’ 55.5 Receiving Yards -120

WR Devaughn Vele

Vele has been the number two option in this offense. Last week he saw a season-high 66% snap share and acts as the primary slot WR for DEN. He has cleared his 30.5 receiving yards in 3 of 6 games, along with his reception line of 3.5. The key has been, how much does he see the field. If he’s seen the field over 45% of snaps, he’s cleared both lines. If not, he hasn’t. ATL allows the 15th most receiving yards per game out of the slot this season, while allowing the 2nd lowest yards per route run (1.48) and lowest yards per reception (8.60).

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Adam Trautman/Lucas Krull

It’s interesting… Krull gets the higher receiving line, but Trautman plays double the snaps. Trautman has seen a snap share of 55%+ in the last 4 games. On the season when he’s seen a 50%+ snap share, he cleared his receiving mark in 4 of 6 this season. While Trautman’s snap share has stayed high, we’ve seen Krull’s share decrease over the last 5 weeks: 60%, 45%, 37%, 29% and 21%. Despite the reduced snap share, he’s still cleared this 9.5 receiving line in 4 of his last 5 games. I tend to buy field time and Trautman looks to be the better bargain here, despite the trends for Krull. ATL is allowing the 14th most receiving yards and receptions per game to TE’s (52.7 yards and 5.1 receptions). ATL allows the 9th highest checkdown rate (11%), which includes TE’s. That’s makes me like Trautman even more, he provides more of an outlet for Nix, rather than a legit route runner.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receiving Yards (Trautman) -120

Atlanta has been the better team this season, but DEN has really started to play on both sides of the ball the last few weeks. Nix has taken steps forward and the DEN defense has really locked in. DEN’s defense just limited KC to 16 points and should have won that game. I think we might be in for a lower scoring game here, but I like DEN in this spot at home. The Falcons have dropped 2 of their last 4 and generating pressure is really how you keep Nix silent.

Best Bet (Broncos ML  -125)
Lean (ATL TT ‘U’ 21.5 Points  -110)
Broncos 23 Falcons 21

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith has been a baller this year. He currently has the fourth most passing yards in the league with 2,560 but averages the most passing yards per game at 284.4. Smith has already seen the 49ers this season. In that game, he went 30 for 52, throwing for 312 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. In the five games against the 49ers since joining the Seahawks, Smith has thrown for 200+ passing yards in three of five games, averaging 236 passing yards per game. San Francisco has been fairly good against QBs, averaging the ninth fewest (208.9) per game despite allowing the 17th most pass attempts (32). The 49ers run the 12th most man coverage (27.1%). Against zone coverage, Smith averages the second most passing yards per game (202.3) and the 12th-highest completion percentage (73.3%). While the 49ers allow just 52.6% completion percentage against the coverage –– the ninth fewest in the NFL –– they allow the third highest yards per attempt (7.78). With a 6.5-point spread, Vegas is anticipating the Seahawks will be trailing in this game. In losses this season, Smith averages a whopping 313.2 passing yards per game. And if the Seahawks are trailing, they're going to need to throw to try and get back into this game. Considering Smith already threw for 300+ against this defence this year, it's not outlandish to expect him to do it again.

Suggested Pick:
300+ Passing Yards (+350)

RB Kenneth Walker

Kenneth Walker has been a workhorse for this Seahawks team. He's averaging 14 rushing attempts per game. He's got 398 rushing yards on the season, and that's with missing two weeks of the season and already having passed his bye week. On a rushing yards-per-game level, he ranks inside the top 24 among 119 applicable RBs. Now, historically, Walker hasn't had the best games against the 49ers, finishing under 50 rush yards in four of five meetings, averaging 34.6 per game –– including his 14 rush attempt for 32 rushing yard game in Week 6. And it might be more of the same as the 49ers allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards (81.4) per game. But that didn't keep Walker quiet, as he was used heavily in the passing game, as he had a season-high eight targets, eight receptions for 37 receiving yards. This is where you attack San Fransisco, as they allow the seventh most receptions (5.1) and the fifth most receiving yards (39.7). With the Seahawks projected to be trailing, and Walker averaging 31 receiving yards per game this season –– 30+ against the 49ers in three of his four games –– that's where Seattle will be able to get their playmaker the ball.

Suggested Pick:
25+ Receiving Yards (-130)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is making his return after missing a few weeks with a knee injury. So far this season, DK averages 81.1 receiving yards per game. Against the 49ers this season, he was locked down, catching just three of his 12 targets for 48 yards. Metcalf historically struggles against the 49ers, as throughout his last five games, he's had one game over 60 yards yet still averages 64.6 receiving yards, mostly due to an explosive 136-yard performance.  The 49ers allow the sixth-fewest (9.9) receptions to WRs and the 12th-fewest receiving yards (131.3). San Fransisco runs the 12th most man coverage (27.1%); DK has the third-highest PFF grade against man coverage on the Seahawks, catching 10 of 19 targets for 141 receiving yards. Against zone coverage –– where the 49ers run 72.9% of the time –– DK has the second-highest PFF grade on the Seahawks, catching 21 of 34 of his targets for 327 yards. Where Metcalf leads this group is in his yards per reception at 16.2 and touchdowns with three. Metcalf will likely draw the matchup against Renardo Green. Green has become a main starter throughout the last four weeks as Charvarious Ward remains out. During that span, Green has allowed 12 receptions on 22 targets for 137 receiving yards. With the 49ers allowing the 14th highest aDoT (8.5) and a 10.5 yards per reception, Metcalf should be able to catch a deep ball, like he has in five of his last six games.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 24.5 Longest Receptions (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Like Metcalf, JSN historically struggles against the 49ers, registering 50+ receiving yards just once, averaging 39.7 receiving yards on 3.7 receptions. However, that one game he had 50+ receiving yards with their Week 6 matchup. The 49ers allow the sixth-fewest (9.9) receptions to WRs and the 12th-fewest receiving yards (131.3). San Fransisco runs the 12th most man coverage (27.1%); JSN has the second-highest PFF grade against man coverage on the Seahawks, catching 13 of 22 targets for 173 receiving yards. Against zone coverage –– where the 49ers run 72.9% of the time –– JSN has the highest PFF grade on the Seahawks, catching 30 of 40 of his targets for 305 yards. Where JSN leads this group is in receptions and targets. With JSN lining up in the slot 73% of the time, he'll often draw the Deommodore Lenoir matchup. Lenoir earned himself a contract extension this season after his strong play. Lenoir has allowed receptions on 35 of 56 targets against this season, but he did struggle in their latest meeting, allowing seven receptions on 10 targets for 67 yards. While not all of these were against JSN, his role seems to be increasing and should be heavily targeted in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (-130)

WR Tyler Lockett

Now, Lockett is the one that actually has success against the 49ers. He has recorded 60+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games, averaging 61.3 yards per game. In Week 6, Lockett had 65 receiving yards on just four receptions. The 49ers allow the sixth-fewest (9.9) receptions to WRs and the 12th-fewest receiving yards (131.3). San Fransisco runs the 12th most man coverage (27.1%); Lockett has the highest PFF grade against man coverage on the Seahawks, catching 12 of 18 targets for 178 receiving yards. Against zone coverage –– where the 49ers run 72.9% of the time –– Lockett has the second-highest PFF grade on the Seahawks, catching 13 of 19 of his targets for 159 yards. Unfortunatley, Lockett doesn't lead the Seahawks in any stat this season. While his role has seemed diminished as the WR3, it really hasn't. Lockett has a 90.4% route percentage, but JSN has a 90.9% and DK at 90.8%. Lockett might be the silent 49ers killer.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Austin Barner

We aren't going to dive too heavily into the Seahawks TE, considering Noah Fant will miss this week. The next man up is Austin Barner, who has 14 receptions for 132 yards this season, but he would be the fifth option in the passing game at best. Regardless, even if Fant was healthy, the 49ers allow the fewest receiving yards per game to the TE position at just 27.9 yards.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

QB Brock Purdy

This season seems to have been an uphill battle from training camp onwards. Having to deal with Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk missing training camp, then losing Christian McCaffrey, then losing Aiyuk for the remainder of the season. But Brock Purdy has done his best and is having an impressive contract year, as he's sixth across the league in passing yards (2,454), averaging the second-most passing yards per game at 272.2, trailing only the guy on the other side of the field by 11.7 yards per game. In their matchup earlier this season, Purdy went 18 for 28 for 255 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Through his years as a starter for the 49ers, Purdy has thrown for 200 passing yards in all five meetings, topping 250 in three of those five. This Seahawks defence allows the 12th most passing attempts (32.8) and the 10th most passing yards (233.8). The Seahawks run just below average of man coverage at 24.9%, which is pretty favourable for Purdy, as he averages the second-highest yards per attempt at 9.84. Seattle allow the seventh most yards per attempt against zone (8.4%). Purdy again should be able to pick apart this defence, like he did in Week 5 and three of the previous five meetings.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 262.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Christians McCaffrey

McCaffrey finally returned last week, and while he clearly didn't have his full speed back, his involvement in the offence was all the way back. McCaffrey faced off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have Vita Vea, an outstanding run defender, which probably had something to do with the fact McCaffrey only had 39 yards on his 13 rush attempts, for an average of three yards per carry. However, his usage in the pass game was just like usual as he caught six of seven for 63 receiving yards. This Seahawks defence is one to target for RBs. They allow the seventh-fewest rushing attempts (24.4) and second-most rushing yards (123.44) per game, leading to the highest yards per carry (5.05) to RBs across the entire NFL. There is no preference in terms of scheme that would benefit McCaffrey as the Seahawks allow 5.06 yards per carry against zone concept and 5.23 yards per carry in man/gap. However, the Seahawks run zone at 48.9% compared to man/gap at 37.3%. Now, there's really not much data to go off of to see how McCaffrey's performing this season against the respective coverages. So looking at last season, McCaffrey had a 5.71 yards per carry against zone, and 4.4 against man/gap. While McCaffrey struggled on the ground last week, it's a much juicer matchup for him this week. Especially considering McCaffrey has recorded 100+ rushing yards against the Seahawks in their previous four meetings, averaging 121.5 per game.

Suggested Pick:
100+ Rushing Yards (+165)

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo is the definition of a boom-bust player. He's had two games this season where he's had over 100+ receiving yards and then two games where he had zero and 11 yards. But the other four games, he's finished anywhere between 54 - 71 receiving yards. So this all averages out to 58.5 receiving yards per game this season. The Seahawks allow the ninth most receptions (12.4) and the 14th most receiving yards (146.9) to WRs. Seattle runs the 19th most man coverage (24.1%). The one rule when analyzing these San Fran WRs, is you take Aiyuk when playing a man-heavy team and Deebo when playing a zone-heavy team. The Seahawks would be considered a zone-heavy team as they run below league-average man coverage. So you fire up Deebo, who has caught 18 of 24 targets for 247 receiving yards. Deebo has the seventh-highest PFF grade across all WRs in the NFL against zone coverage. But where Deebo has the biggest advantage is just his history against the Seahawks. In his last six games against Seattle, Deebo has 79 or more yards in five games, topping 100 yards in four of those five and averages 110.5 yards per game. That continued in their matchup earlier this season when he had 102 receiving yards. Deebo is a gadget weapon, lining up all over the field: 28% on the left, 40% in the slot and 32% on the right. Devon Witherspoon is the primary slot CB for the Seahawks. The former first-round pick has struggled in the slot, especially over the last three weeks, as he's allowed 18 receptions on 24 targets for 176 receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle doesn't get the respect as the leagues top TE as he deserves. He leads all TEs in PFF grade, fifth in receptions (43), second in receiving yards (560), and first in touchdowns (7). In his last five games, Kittle has gone over 55 receiving yards in each outing, averaging 79.8 yards per game. Seattle allows the 11th most receptions (5.3) and the 13th most receiving yards (55.4) to TEs. Against the Seahawks, Kittle has registered 55+ receiving yards in four of six games, averaging 77.3 yards per game. Kittle hasn't had troubles finding the end zone this season, scoring a TD in six of his last seven games. And that remains true against the Seahawks, as he has six TDs in his previous six games.

Suggested Pick:
1+ TD (+160)

I'm expecting a fight from this Seahawks team. It really seems like a do or die game for them if they want to continue to contend for this division or a playoff spot. The 49ers have historically dominated them, winning six straight games. While I expect the 49ers to go on a run here, I think the Seahawks can keep it within a one-score game.

Best Bet (Over 47.5 -120) 
Lean (Seahawks +7.5 -125)
49ers 31 - Seahawks 27

QB Patrick Mahomes

It's been a surprisingly quiet season for Mahomes this season. And I'm sure he doesn't care, considering the team has yet to lose a game, but he's currently 2,208 passing yards so far (averaging 245.3 per game), 12th most so far this season. He's on pace to throw for 4,170.7 yards, which would be the second-lowest of his career, just 140 yards more than in 2019 when he played three fewer games. He's on pace for just under what he threw for last season, but he can't seem to have the same success in the red zone, throwing for just 12 touchdowns but nine interceptions. Mahomes is also just not airing the ball out like he used to. And that's to be expected when you lose an elite deep threat like Tyreek Hill; however, his aDoT is just 7.7. Since 2020, his aDoT never dipped under 8.5. Against the Bills, Mahomes historically has been amazing. He's recorded 270+ passing yards in four of his last five matchups, averaging 294.8. Last game was his miss, where he finished with just 215 passing yards. The Bills defence is much improved from last season; they allow the seventh-most completions (23.4) and eighth-most pass attempts (34) but the 14th-most passing yards (229.9). Mahomes and the Chiefs catch this Bills defence in a good spot as they're missing LB Matt Milano and OLB Von Miller, who seem to be a bigger losses than originally thought. Buffalo runs the seventh-most zone defence (82.9%). Which doesn't really do much for Mahomes as he averages 7.46 yards per attempt against zone and 7.4 against man and a 6.2 aDoT against zone, and a 6.3 aDoT against man. Now, in a down season against an improved Bills defence, I'm not entirely sure how Mahomes will do through the air. But we're expecting a close game where Mahomes will need to use his arm a lot. He's thrown for 40+ pass attempts in two straight games, 35+ in four of his last five and averages 38 pass attempts per game over that span.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 34.5 Passing Attempts (-105)

RB Kareem Hunt

Lowkey, Hunt has kind of saved the Chiefs season this year. If we've seen anything over the back half of last season and the early half of this season, it was that the Chiefs turned into a run-heavy team that relied on the legs of Isiah Pacheco –– reflected in the dip in Mahomes passing numbers. Hunt has been a bell-cow for the Chiefs, recording 20+ rush attempts in four of six games. The two he didn't hit were his first game with the team and last week against the Denver Broncos, where he garnered 10 targets, catching seven of them for 65 receiving yards. Now, are Hunt's numbers inflated by just his heavy volume? I'd say so. His highest yards per carry in any game this season is just 4.9, coming in his first week, and hasn't had a game where he finished with 4+ yards per carry in any game since, bottoming out on two instances where he had below three yards per carry. However, this is a great matchup for Hunt to continue his dominance. The Bills allow the 18th-most rush attempts (21.6) and the 14th-most rushing yards (100.2) to RBs. Through the air is where they really struggle. They allow the most targets (8.4), receptions (6.6) and receiving yards (54.5) to RBs this season. The Bills run zone concept at 39.1% while running 48.6% of man/gap. Which, isn't great, considering they allow 3.95 yards per carry in zone and 5.29 yards per carry in man/gap. Hunt has a better yards per carry in man/gap (3.46) than zone concept (3.83).

Suggested Pick:
'O' 79.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-110)

WR De'Andre Hopkins

Hopkins has suited up in three games for the Chiefs since the trade; he's caught 14 of 17 of his targets, having an explosive game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he finished with eight receptions on nine targets for 86 yards and two touchdowns. Since he became a full-time player in this offence (playing above 60% of the snaps), Hopkins has earned a 17.7% target share, which is the highest of all Chiefs WRs. Buffalo runs the seventh-most zone defence (82.9%). Hopkins has caught 19 of his 25 targets against zone for 232 receiving yards for 12.2 yards per reception. The Bills allow the 16th most receptions (11.3) but the ninth fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (130.5). Hopkins lines up all over the field: 38% on the left, 35% in the slot and 27% on the right. He is projected to draw the Rasul Douglas matchup. Douglas has allowed a reception on 26 of 36 targets for 318 yards. I think the way to attack Hopkins in this matchup is with heavy volume.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (-190)

TE Travis Kelce

At the start of the year, it looked like Kelce had hit his age wall and that he was on a massive decline. However, once the Chiefs lost Rice for the season, Kelce was back to being Mahomes' number-one target. Kelce averaged 23 receiving yards on three receptions through those first three games but has averaged 71.7 receiving yards on 8.7 receptions per game in the following five games since then. The Bills allow the sixth-most targets (7.5) and the 10th-most receptions (5.5), but the 19th-most receiving yards to TEs per game. Against the Bills, Kelce has been featured, seeing at least six receptions in four of his last five games, recording 75+ receiving yards in also four of those five games. Hate to suggest two players to go over their receptions, but if we're anticipating Mahomes to be passing a ton, he should go to his number-one target early and often. Kelce has also seen his aDoT dip to 6.7 through his last three games.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 6.5 Receptions (-115)

QB Josh Allen
Everybody thought it was going to be a down year for Allen after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but he's been able to put the pieces together, building chemistry with Khalil Shakir, rookie Keon Coleman, journeyman Mack Hollins and recently acquired Amari Cooper. Allen has thrown for the ninth most passing yards (2,281) and has a 17-4 touchdown/interception ratio. Which is a massive improvement as the knock against Allen has always been turning the ball over. In the three seasons coming into this one, he reached 15+ interceptions in all three but has just four on the year. Granted, he's started to get a little leaky now as all four of his interceptions have come in his last four games... The Chiefs allow the 14th most completions (21.2), 15th most pass attempts (32.2) and the 20th-most passing yards (217.6) to QBs this season. While these numbers rank in the middle of the pack, considering they're undefeated this season, they should be thrown against a lot as the team tries to muster up a comeback. Just look at the Ravens' pass defence, usually winning but all a lot through the air. This goes to show how good this Chiefs pass defence has been. The Chiefs run the 13th most zone coverage (76%). Allen hasn't really been carving up zone coverage. He averages just 153.1 passing yards per game against the coverage (21st in the league) and 7.89 yards per attempt (18th in the league). Against the Chiefs, Allen has 300+ passing yards in three of his last five games, averaging 278.4 yards per game. Now, against an improved Chiefs pass defence and with missing Dalton Kincaid, Coleman and potentially Cooper, the Bills might need to rely on Allen's legs more than his arm. His rushing average is down this season, only averaging 26.1 rush yards per game. Against the Chiefs –– in what are always close games –– Allen has 30+ rushing yards in his last five games, averaging 52.6 yards on the ground per game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 37.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB James Cook

Cook has been phenomenal this season, really balancing out this Bills offence that always relied on Allen's arm, but now they have a run game that's also a threat. Cook has 576 yards on the ground on 128 carries (4.5 yards per carry) and 175 yards through the air on 20 receptions (8.8 yards per reception). However, he's got a difficult matchup against this Chiefs defence, who allow the single-fewest rushing attempts (16.6) and rushing yards (52.6) to RBs per game. The Chiefs run zone concept 48.8% of the time, allowing 3.29 yards per carry, which is a lot more than their 29.8% man/gap where they allow 3.57 yards per carry. This isn't great for Cook, as he averages  a worse yards per carry against zone (4.67) than he does against man/gap (4.26). Through the air, this Chiefs defence allow a bit more, averaging four receptions (20th most) and 27.6 receiving yards (seventh-fewest) per game to RBs. This might be the way they need to use Cook to get him going. So far this season, Cook has recorded 20+ receiving yards in four of nine games, averaging 19.6 receiving yards per game. In games decided by one score, Cook has recorded 20+ receiving yards in two of those three games. With the Bills being a 2.5-point favourite, this game projects to be just that.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir will be really the only receiving threat for Allen to use in this game. As mentioned, Coleman and Kincaid have already been ruled out, while Cooper is a game-time decision. He was able to get in a few limited sessions, but having missed last week, his status is fully in question. Even if he was to draw into the lineup, he has very few game reps and chemistry with Allen, so we wouldn't anticipate a big game out of him regardless, especially against this Chiefs defence. Kansas City allows the third-fewest receiving yards (111.7) but the 10th-fewest receptions (10.4) to WRs per game. With the Chiefs running the 13th most zone coverage (76%), this bodes well for Shakir's play style as they see their aDoT dip from 7.6 to 6.8 against zone coverage (seventh-lowest in the league). Shakir is by far the best Bills WR against zone coverage, with the highest PFF grade (by six points), catching 28 of his 30 targets for 251 receiving yards. His aDoT against zone coverage? Just 1.5 yards. ONE POINT FIVE. That's the second lowest across the entire league. With Shakir lining up in the slot 71% of the time, he'll draw the matchup against Chamarri Conner. Conner has allowed a reception on 25 of his 32 targets this season for a 78.8% catch rate. With the depleted assets on the offensive side of the ball for the Bills and the Chiefs allowing more receptions than receiving yards, especially considering the low aDoT, Shakir should be given plenty of targets in this game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (+100)

TE Dawson Knox

Now, Knox really hasn't been used this season with Kincaid now in the picture. However, with his absence gives him a great opportunity to perform, especially in this matchup. The Chiefs are the single worst against TEs, allowing the most receptions (6.7) and most receiving yards (77.6) per game to the position. As mentioned, Knox hasn't been featured much in this offence, he has just 10 receptions for 142 receiving yards and one touchdown on the year thus far. But in this advantageous matchup, with a lot of missing weapons on the Bills side, Knox should see a higher uptick in volume than his 1.5 targets and 1.0 receptions per game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 2.5 Receptions (-135)

This is the matchup we've all been waiting for! It's always an instant classic when Mahomes meets Allen. Can the Bills be the first team to put a number on the L column for the Chiefs? Or will the healthier team prevale on the road? While this is likely to be their best chance at a loss this season, it's hard for me to bet against an undefeated Chiefs team, when Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career.

Best Bet: Over 45.5 (-120)
Lean: Chiefs +3.5 (-154)
Chiefs 27 Bills 24

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow is averaging 267 passing yards per game, 7.46 YPA and has thrown 24 TDs. He’ll face a Chargers defense that allows the 10^th least passing yards per game (209). They are middle of the pack in terms of pressure rate. When Burrow is pressured, he has averaged 6.79 YPA and has a QB rating of 84.3. That compares to 7.67 YPA and a 115.6 QB rating in a clean pocket. The Chargers run the 2^nd highest rate of zone (81.2%) and the 2^nd highest rate of 2-high (61.6%). Against 2-high, Burrow averages 7.40 YPA and has a 110.3 QB rating. Against zone, Burrow averages 8.54 YPA and has a 105.0 QB rating. With the Chargers’ two-high safety look, they have allowed the lowest rate of deep throws in the NFL (6.9%). This shouldn’t be too much of an issue as Burrow is middle of the pack in aDOT (7.6) and only throws a deep ball on 9.2% of his attempts (26^th highest amongst qualifying QBs). Burrow’s passing line at 265.5 feels slightly high in a below average matchup.

Suggested Pick
“U” 265.5 Pass Yds (-115)

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown has turned into a workhorse in the past 2 weeks, with an 83.1% and 88.0% snap share respectively. Zach Moss is out for the year, but the Bengals did sign Khalil Herbert. He will likely cut into Brown’s massive role slightly after another week of practice to learn the playbook. Brown is averaging 4.42 YPC and has rushed for 5 TDs. He has also had a sizable role in the passing game the past 2 weeks, with 37 and 52 receiving yards. He’ll face a Chargers defense that allows the 8^th most YPC (4.74) and the 11^th fewest receiving yards to opposing RBs. The Chargers do, however, allow the 3^rd highest target share to the backfield (18.7%). The Chargers run the 2^nd highest rate of 2-high (61.6%). Against 2-high, Brown has averaged 1.35 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. That compares to 0.63 YPRR and 17% TPRR against single-high. With Chase Brown running a route on 51.2% and 73.3% of drop backs last week, this feels like a great game to target his receiving.

Suggested Pick
“O” 23.5 Rec Yds (-113)
“O” 3.5 Rec (-138)
5+ Rec (+130)
6+ Rec (+265)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in receiving, averaging 98.1 yards per game, 2.59 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He’ll face a Chargers defense that allows the 8^th least receiving yards to opposing WRs.  They run the 2^nd highest rate of zone (81.2%) and the 2^nd highest rate of 2-high (61.6%). Against 2-high, Chase averages 2.11 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. Against zone, Chase averages 3.45 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. The Bengals have moved around Ja’Marr this season, as he has lined up out wide on 63.9% of his routes and in the slot on 33.5%. The Chargers allow the 11^th lowest target share to wide aligned receivers, and the 12^th lowest target share to the slot. Chase just had 264 yards last week against the Ravens, I’d expect extra attention from the Chargers in his direction.

Suggested Pick
“U” 75.5 Rec Yds (-110)

WR Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins is expected to return after missing the previous 3 games with an injury. He is averaging 68.2 receiving yards per game, 2.14 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. He’ll face a Chargers defense that allows the 8^th least receiving yards to opposing WRs. They run the 2^nd highest rate of zone (81.2%) and the 2^nd highest rate of 2-high (61.6%). Tee is averaging 1.81 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes against 2-high. Against zone, he averages 2.11 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. Tee has primarily run his routes from outside, he has a 76.1% wide route rate. Chargers allow the 11^th lowest target share to wide aligned receivers. Tee Higgins leads the Bengals in air yard share, 40.4% compared to Chase’s 30.8%. With his lower line at 53.5, I’m inclined to take his over despite the below average matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 53.5 Rec Yds (-113)
70+ Rec Yds (+155)
80+ Rec Yds (+230)

TE Mike Gesicki

Gesicki has put together some nice performances without Tee Higgins. But with Tee’s return, I’d expect his involvement to come down. He’s averaging 62.4 receiving yards per game when Higgins doesn’t play, compared to 14.2 receiving yards when he does. He’ll face a Chargers defense that is right in the middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards allowed to TE. They run the 2^nd highest rate of zone (81.2%) and the 2^nd highest rate of 2-high (61.6%). Against two-high, Gesicki averages 1.56 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. Those are negative splits compared to his 2.08 YPRR and 24% TPRR against single-high. Against zone, Gesicki averages 1.38 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. That compares to 2.57 YPRR and 28% TPRR against man. Bad all-around matchup scheme, as well as the return of Tee Higgins makes Gesicki a fade.

Suggested Pick
“U” 30.5 Rec Yds (-113)
“U” 2.5 Rec (+120)

QB Justin Herbert

For the season, Herbert averages 209.9 passing yards per game, averages 7.84 YPA and has thrown 11 TDs. Herbert has been better in his last 5 games, averaging 262.2 passing yards per game as the Chargers have become more pass heavy. However, that shifted back the other way, but I’ll give them a pass as they were facing the Titans, who allow the least passing yards per game. Now he’ll face a Bengals defense that allows the 11^th most passing yards per game. The Bengals have the 10^th lowest pressure rate over expected. Herbert averages 8.16 YPA and a 108.4 QB rating in a clean pocket, compared to 6.87 YPA and an 87.6 QB rating when pressured. Looking at the Bengals defensive scheme, they run single-high 55.2% of the time and run zone 68.4% of the time. None of these are glaring tendencies to investigate further. It’s interesting to see Herbert’s pass attempt line set at 32.5. When Herbert throws 28+ passes, he is over his 234.5 passing yard line in 73% of his L30 games. Books are expecting a high scoring game. I lean over passing yards as he’s over in 4 of L5.

Suggested Pick
“O” 234.5 Pass Yds (-113)

RB JK Dobbins

Dobbins has seen a resurgence this season, averaging 74.4 rush yards per game on 4.75 YPC and 6 rush TDs. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is allowing the 6^th least YPC (4.20). They have also allowed an explosive run on just 3.6% of attempts, tied for 7^th lowest in the NFL. 35.1% of Dobbins rush yards have come from explosive runs. Dobbins has been more effective in man/gap run concepts. He averages 4.96 YPC compared to 4.49 YPC in zone concepts. The Bengals allow 4.64 YPC against man/gap concepts, compared to 4.11 YPC in zone concepts. I lean under as the first 2 games of the season feel like outliers. Outside of those 2 games, he averages 57.7 rush yards per game and is under his 57.5 rush line in 5 of 7 games.

Suggested Pick
“U” 57.5 Rush Yds (-113)

WR Ladd McConkey

McConkey is averaging 55.3 receiving yards per game, 2.23 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. The Bengals allow the 10^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. 69.5% of Ladd’s routes have come from the slot. The Bengals have the 3^rd lowest target share (28.4%) and the 7^th lowest receiving yards (64.7) to the slot. The Bengals have the 10^th lowest pressure rate over expected. Ladd averages 2.51 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes when Herbert is operating from a clean pocket. The Bengals top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 and Cover 1. Against these 2 coverages, Ladd averages 2.76 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. Not a great matchup for Ladd.

Suggested Pick
“U” 54.5 Rec yds (-109)

WR Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston is averaging 43.7 receiving yards per game, 2.15 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He also leads the team in receiving TDs with 5. The Bengals are middle of the pack in terms of TDs allowed to opposing WRs. They also allow the 10^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. 92.3% of Quentin’s routes have come from out wide. The Bengals allow the highest wide target share in the NFL (47.4%). They also allow the 2^nd most receiving yards to wide alignment. The Bengals top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 and Cover 1. Against these 2 coverages, Quentin averages 2.00 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He also has a 1^st-read rate of 25.4%, 2^nd behind Ladd against Cover 1 & 3.

Suggested Pick
“O” 40.5 Rec Yds (-113)
1+ TD (+250)

TE Will Dissly

Dissly averages 30.2 receiving yards per game, 1.94 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. He has run a route on 49.8% of dropbacks but has been 58% or higher in the last 4 games. The Bengals allow the 7^th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. Since week 8, the Bengals have run 2-high at the 7^th highest rate (53.1%). Against 2-high, Dissly averages 2.33 YPRR, has been targeted on 31% of his routes and leads the Chargers in 1^st-read rate at 23.9%. Dissly has lined up inline on 60% of his routes. The Bengals have the 9^th highest target share to inline (12.4%). Dissly is averaging 6.4 targets per game in his last 5. With this expected to be a high scoring game, I expect Dissly to be heavily involved.

Suggested Pick
“O” 3.5 Rec (-156)
“O” 4.5 Rec (+120)|
1+ TD (+430)

The Chargers are coming into this one riding a 3-game win streak. Meanwhile, the Bengals just lost a heartbreaker against the Ravens. I believe the Bengals are a lot better than their record indicates and see value in taking them as the underdog. Joe Burrow has had an MVP caliber season, minus the winning. The defense has just not held their own. I expect this to be another high scoring affair, but this time Joe Burrow will be able to hold Justin Herbert and the Chargers off. The Chargers will likely not be able to just pound the rock relentlessly, as the Bengals are much improved against the run this season. Bengals win in a must win game.

Best Bet (Bengals +2.5 -115)
Lean (Over 46.5 -105)
Bengals 27 Chargers 24