Play #1
Jimmy Garappolo 'O' 0.5 Int -115
@Betrivers
Jimmy gets the start today! A nice start for this prop. Now add to that, he hasn't started a game since 2023 and he won't have LAR's best weapons. Jimmy will be without WR's Puka and Kupp, starting RB Kyren Williams and both the starting left tackle and right guard.SEA is in a spot where they need to win this game and hold a very solid 3.0% turnover-worthy throw rate forced this season. They have forced 12 INT's this season.To cap it all off, we get a solid value here compared to some other books that have this over at -150 or worse.
Play #2
Brian Robinson 'O' 12.5 Rush Attp -114
@Fanduel
While the playoff spot has already been clinched for the Commanders, there is still plenty on the line with playoff seeding and I think we will see a high volume for Robinson as a result. On the year he is over in 10/13 games and in 8/10 wins (Washington is -6.5 on the road today).Dallas has really struggled against the run this year, giving up 138.6 rush yards per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. They also are are giving up 29 rush attempts per game on average, which ranks 25th in the league.With much more on the line, I think we get a Commanders win today and for the team to turn to the run game late against the weakness of the Cowboys to salt this game away.
Play #3
Olamide Zaccheaus O 33.5 Rec Yds -110
@Fanduel
36, 70 and 85 receiving yards L3 weeks as his snap share has increased from 49%, 69% to 76% respectively. He’s been the Commanders WR2 with Noah Brown on IR.He’s been used as the short yardage target, as his aDOT is lowest on the team at 5.1. This is important because since week 11, the Cowboys are allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game on targets between 1 and 9 yards.
Saturday Football
Pat Friermuth 'O' 34.5 Rec Yds -113
@Fanduel
Freiermuth averages 35.6 receiving yards per game, 1.47 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. However, he’s seen more volume as of late, seeing a target on 21% of his routes since week 13. Freiermuth will face a Bengals defense allowing the most receptions, 3rd most receiving yards and the 3rd most receiving TDs to TE. In their matchup a month ago, Pat had 6 receptions for 68 yards and a TD. Pat has lined up in the slot on 55.2% and inline on 27.1% of his routes. The Bengals allow the 12th lowest target share but the 10th most receiving yards per game to the slot. To inline alignment, the Bengals allow the 2nd highest target share and the 4th most receiving yards per game. On the season, the Bengals play zone coverage 68.5% of the time and have a 50-50 split between single-high and two-high. However, since week 13, the Bengals have leaned into two-high playing it at the 2nd highest rate (60.4%). Against two-high, Freiermuth sees slightly positive splits averaging 1.49 YPRR and 19% TPRR. His 1st-read rate is only slightly behind Pickens at 21%. Against zone coverage, Pat sees slightly positive splits averaging 1.53 YPRR and 18% TPRR.
Play #2
Mark Andrews 'O' 33.5 Rec Yds -110
@Fanduel
After starting the season slow, he’s now hit this in 9 of L12 games (75% hit rate). Since week 8, his route rate is up to 64.6% and he’s averaging 2.19 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Since week 9, the Browns have allowed the most YPRR to the slot (2.84), which is where Andrews has lined up on 65% of his routes. The Browns have also played the 3rd highest rate of man since week 13, Andrews sees nice boosts against man.
Play #3
Derrick Henry First team TD Scorer +210
@Fanduel
Henry has done this in 7 of 16 games, a 43.75% hit rate. (+285) implies a 25.97% probability, so just with that we have a nice edge.The Ravens are 20-point favorites, clinch the division with a win, and Henry has a $500k bonus if he scores 1 more TD.CLE allows the 11th most TDs to RB.
CTB Lotto +574
