Play #1
Ricky Pearsall 'O' 23.5 Rec Yds -110
@Fanduel
Snap share up to 72% last week and he’s seen 4 targets in B2B weeks. Has hit this line in 4 of 5 games with 4+ targets.With the 49ers out of playoff contention, I’d expect more opportunities for their rookie. He gets a matchup against a Lions defense that allows the 2nd most receiving yards per game to WR on the season. They have been equally bad as of late, allowing the 4th most YPRR since week 12. The Lions are 3.5-point favorites and have been a pass funnel all season, forcing the 4th highest pass rate over expected. We should see a heavy passing game script tonight.Looking at defensive scheme, the Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (44.2%).
Play #2
Jared Goff 'U' 0.5 Int -132
@Fanduel
Pressures on for Jared Goff and the Lions after Sam Darnold and the Vikings emerged victorious last night to take over the one-seed in the NFC. They'll have their handsful this week against the San Francisco 49ers. Now, the 49ers are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but you'd still figure a Kyle Shanahan team will bring their best against a tough opponent like the Lions. The 49ers are allowing the fifth fewest completions (19.1), the fourth fewest pass attempts (29.7) and the second fewest passing yards (195.4) per game to opposing QBs. San Fran are somewhat even in terms of the coverages they run, but they do run more zone, ranking 11th in the league. Goff has the best numbers against man coverage in the league, but that hasn't slowed him down against zone, either. He averages the second most passing yards per game, and the fourth most yards per attempt against the coverage and has the seventh highest completion percentage. However, the 49ers have counteracting numbers, as they allow the eighth fewest passing yards per game, completion percentage and the third fewest yards per attempt while in zone coverage. So, is there any edge here? I'm not so sure. What I am looking at is his ball security. He has just a 3% turnover-worthy throw percentage, which is 20th in the league among starting QBs. And outside of his five interception game against the Texans, he has just one interception in his last 11 games. The 49ers on the season are middle of the pack in terms of interceptions. However, they have not registered an interception over the past five weeks.
Play #3
George Kittle 'O' 23.5 Long Comp -110
@Fanduel
Had it not been for an amazing rookie year from Brock Bowers, Kittle would be the best TE in the league this season. He's become Purdy's favourite weapon, leading the team in receptions (68) and receiving yards (967) and is pushing to hit the 1,000 mark for the fifth time in his career. He does perform better against zone coverage, but is a close second in terms of PFF grade against man coverage as well. While being poor against opposing WRs, the Lions are one of the better teams at limiting opposing TEs. They allow the fewest receptions (3.7) and receiving yards (35.2) to the position. With that being said, Kittle isn't you typical TE. Kittle lines up inline on 56.7% of his routes. The Lions are good at limiting yards to inline receivers, allowing the third fewest, but that moves up to 11th fewest yards per reception and the fifth highest aDoT. Kittle has the highest yards per reception and second most yards after catch on the 49ers. We usually see him slip away in coverage and break off a big reception, against a team who often does to the position despite the difficult matchup. Kittle has logged a 25+ longest reception in eight of the last nine games.
Play #1
Saquon Barkley O 125+ Rush + rec -145
@Draftkings
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley is primed for another standout performance as he faces a Dallas defense that has struggled to contain opposing running backs this season. Barkley has been dominant, surpassing 100 rushing yards in six of his last eight games, including four games with over 120 yards. His workload has been equally impressive, with 20+ carries in seven of his last ten outings, and there’s no reason to expect a lighter usage this week. Barkley remains the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s offense, and this matchup offers plenty of reasons for optimism. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against the run, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (136) and the third-highest yards per carry in the league. Their defense has also struggled to limit explosive plays, giving up the fourth-highest explosive run rate (6.2%) and the highest rushing touchdown rate (5.5%). Dallas ranks poorly in terms of stuffing runs at or behind the line, with the third-lowest stuff rate (37.1%), which bodes well for Barkley’s ability to consistently pick up yardage. Additionally, the Cowboys have shown particular vulnerability against man/gap running schemes, allowing the second-highest success rate to these runs. Barkley operates out of this scheme in about 43% of his carries, making this an ideal setup for him to exploit. Given his current form and the favorable matchup, Barkley is well-positioned for another big performance. With the potential for a heavy workload and Dallas’ struggles against the run, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him eclipse 100 yards yet again while finding the end zone in what shapes up as a favorable spot.
Play #2
Terry Mclaurin O 24.5 long comp -120
@Draftkings
Terry McLaurin showcased his big-play ability once again in his most recent outing, catching 5 of 6 targets for 60 yards, highlighted by a 32-yard touchdown. That score marked McLaurin’s 12th receiving touchdown of the season, placing him just behind Ja'Marr Chase for the league lead. Impressively, 10 of McLaurin’s touchdown catches have come on passes directly into the end zone, accounting for nearly half (46.7%) of Washington’s throws to that area of the field—ranking him second in the league in end-zone target share. Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with eight targets, while Jamison Crowder stepped up with a crucial late-game score, slightly overshadowing McLaurin’s day. Even so, McLaurin’s recent trends in usage are promising, with his target share and air-yard dominance increasing over the past several weeks as Jayden Daniels continues to grow more comfortable as the starter. Against Atlanta’s defense, McLaurin has an excellent opportunity. The Falcons rank 31st in yards allowed to lead receivers, surrendering 9.1 yards per target and a 7.3% touchdown rate to WR1s. Their secondary has struggled to contain big plays, with notable performances from Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and even rookie Ladd McConkey in recent weeks. Given the favorable matchup, McLaurin should be a focal point of the Commanders' passing attack. His ability to win one-on-one matchups and capitalize on Jayden Daniels’ increasing confidence makes him a clear go-to receiver in what could be another productive game.
Play #3
James Cook Anytime TD -105
@Draftkings
James Cook is averaging 66.3 rushing yards per game, 5.10 YPC and 14 rushing TDs. He’ll face a Jets defense that is middle of the pack in rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed to RB. On a per carry basis, the Jets allow only 4.09 YPC, which is 4th lowest in the league. Success in the running game against the Jets is mainly due to volume, as they have allowed the 3rd most rush attempts. With the Bills 9.5-point favorites, we’d expect another game of heavy rush volume. The one concern here is that Cook’s snap share has not surpassed 50%+ in 5 straight games. It feels like they are keeping him fresh for the playoffs and mixing in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson to a larger extent. In terms of run concepts, Cook has run zone concept 53.8% of the time. He averages 4.79 YPC and has a 51% success rate. That compares to 5.46 YPC and a 53.6% success rate in man/gap concepts, which has accounted for 46.2% of his runs. The Jets allow the least YPC to zone concept (3.43) and the 9th fewest YPC to man/gap concepts (4.48). I’d rather bet Cook for an anytime TD rather than guess what his snap count will look like in a game expected to be a blowout. He has still gotten 7 redzone carries to Ray Davis 0 the past 2 weeks.
CTB Lotto +1360
@Draftkings
Saturday Football
Play #1
Bo Nix O 22.5 Rushing Yds -125
@Draftkings
Bo Nix had a mixed performance in Week 16, with a strong start but a more quiet second half. In the first half, he completed 15 of 21 passes (71.4%) for 155 yards (7.4 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. However, in the second half, his production dipped, completing 14 of 19 passes (73.7%) but for just 108 yards (5.7 yards per attempt). Nix’s passing game in Week 16 heavily relied on short throws, averaging just 2.9 air yards per attempt, the lowest for any quarterback in a single game this season. A significant 87.8% of his passing yards came after the catch. For the season, 28% of Nix's passes have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, a rate surpassed only by Tua Tagovailoa (31.1%) and Patrick Mahomes (30.9%). Facing the Bengals this week, Nix could employ a similar short-passing strategy. Cincinnati ranks 25th in yards allowed after the catch per completion (5.6), which aligns well with Nix’s approach. The Bengals have also struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, allowing the most rushing yards to the position this season (31.9 per game). Recent examples include Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert, all of whom ran for at least 30 yards against them. Nix has been more active as a runner in the past two weeks, adding 23 and 25 rushing yards, and this element of his game could be critical in creating opportunities against a Bengals defense that ranks 24th in pressure rate (31.9%). When under pressure, Nix has struggled, completing just 46% of his passes (23rd) for 5.2 yards per attempt (28th). However, Cincinnati’s variance in defensive performance provides room for Nix to capitalize on favorable situations, particularly in a potentially high-scoring environment.
Play #2
Jamar Chase O 26.5 Lng Pass Comp -120
@Draftkings
Chase spends 31.8% of his snaps in the slot, which helps him avoid matchups with Denver’s top cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. Denver has allowed notable performances to opposing receivers even with Surtain in the secondary. Zay Flowers (5 catches, 127 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Jerry Jeudy (9 catches, 235 yards, 1 touchdown) both excelled, doing much of their damage away from Surtain. The Broncos have been vulnerable to big plays, allowing 9.3 yards per target to lead receivers (26th in the NFL). Denver’s defense has limited touchdown production from wideouts, allowing just eight receiving touchdowns to the position this season—the lowest rate in the league at 2.7%. Despite their ability to keep wideouts out of the end zone, Denver has surrendered significant yardage in recent weeks. Performances by Ladd McConkey (6 catches, 87 yards), Elijah Moore (8 catches, 111 yards), and Jakobi Meyers (10 catches, 121 yards) demonstrate that top-tier receivers like Chase can still exploit their secondary, even without scoring touchdowns. Chase's ability to generate splash plays and his chemistry with Joe Burrow make him a key factor in this matchup.
Thursday Night Football
Play #1
Zach Charbonnet 'O' 68.5 Rush Yds -110
@Fanduel
Kenneth Walker is sidelined again with an ankle injury, so Charbonnet will get the start. When Walker was sidelined weeks 14 and 15, Charbonnet saw 38 touches for 259 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. On the season, he averages 4.27 YPC and has rushed for 8 TDs. He’ll face a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most rushing yards to RB. Charbonnet has been much more successful in man/gap concepts. He averages 6.19 YPC and a 54.7% success rate, compared to 2.29 YPC and only a 29.2% success rate in zone concepts. The Bears allow 4.82 YPC and a 53.4% success rate against man/gap concepts, compared to 4.74 YPC and a 52.7% success rate against zone concepts. 8 straight starting RBs have ran for 74+ yards against this Bears rush defense. Charbonnet should be the workhorse back with KWIII ruled out ☢️
Play #2
DJ Moore 'O' 5.5 Rec -132
He’s had 6+ receptions in 6/L6 weeks and even 7+ receptions in 5 of last 6 so he’s basically crushing this line each week.Seattle allows the 12th most receptions to opposing wide receivers, last week Justin Jefferson (10) & Jordan Addison (5) carved up their secondary and this presents great opportunity for Moore to get more!
𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Play #1
Kareem Hunt O 44.5 Rush + Receiving -114
@Fanduel
Kareem Hunt presents an intriguing option in the Chiefs’ backfield against the Steelers, particularly due to his rushing style and scheme usage. Hunt has consistently cut into Isiah Pacheco’s workload this season, often taking over significant touches in the second half of games. What makes Hunt particularly appealing in this matchup is his heavy reliance on zone rushing schemes, with 118 zone runs compared to just 66 in man/gap. This aligns well with a key vulnerability in Pittsburgh’s otherwise strong run defense. The Steelers rank 31st in success rate allowed against man/gap schemes but are far more susceptible to zone runs, surrendering the fifth-highest success rate in that category. This game script could favor Hunt as a runner more than Pacheco, especially if the Chiefs decide to exploit Pittsburgh’s struggles against zone schemes. While Pacheco may get the early work, Hunt’s ability to thrive in the zone scheme and his role as a versatile, situational back could lead to greater efficiency and potentially higher impact later in the game. However, Kansas City’s backfield rotation remains fluid, so Hunt’s volume may still be capped, making him a higher-risk option in betting markets. If the game plan emphasizes zone runs, though, Hunt has the potential to outperform Pacheco on the ground and emerge as the more effective back in this matchup.
Play #2
George Pickens O 65.5 Receiving Yds -113
@Fanduel
George Pickens is set up for a strong return against the Kansas City Chiefs, particularly given his dominance against man coverage and the likelihood of a negative game script forcing Pittsburgh to pass more. Pickens is a proven man-coverage beater, commanding a 37.5% target share, a massive 41.5% team yardage rate, and an explosive 17.1 yards per reception when facing man schemes. With Kansas City running man coverage at the 7th-highest rate in the league, this aligns perfectly with his skill set. His 45.7% first-read rate in these situations further underscores his role as the primary weapon for Russell Wilson in such matchups. Against zone coverage, Pickens is less effective, posting a 21.2% target share, 27.2% yardage rate, and 15.03 yards per reception. However, Kansas City’s defensive structure, combined with Pickens’ ability to win deep, mitigates some of these concerns, especially if Wilson can identify and exploit favorable matchups. Pickens’ health is a minor concern after missing the past few weeks, but two consecutive full practices suggest he’s ready to handle a significant workload. In a game where Pittsburgh is expected to trail, the Steelers may lean on Pickens’ big-play ability to keep them competitive, making him a high-upside option. Overall, this is an excellent spot for Pickens. His ability to stretch the field and consistently win in man coverage should lead to high-value opportunities, particularly if the Chiefs’ secondary focuses too much on limiting shorter, high-percentage throws. Bettors should view him as a strong candidate for a productive outing, particularly in props like receiving yards or explosive plays.
Play #3
Lamar J O 36.5 Longest Completion -125
@Draftkings
These Christmas day games provide an extremely difficult short turnaround for the NFL teams that just played their previous games on Saturday. With that in mind, Lamar Jackson may not mind the turnaround so much, as he was dominant in the Ravens win against the Steelers and maintains a hot hand into Houston. In reality though, he has had the hot hand all year, with his 8.87 YPA being the highest rate in the NFL. The Texans overall have been excellent against opposing passers this year, as they have allowed the 2nd fewest YPA against in the NFL at 6.50. Making this seemingly a strength on strength matchup for this game. However there is one key area I am targeting on Lamar. Jackson throws an incredible deep ball, with his 14.8% deep ball completion % being the 4th best percentage in the league. Meanwhile, the Texans have been beat deep occasionally, with a 14.1% deep ball completion percentage against them. They have also been tested deep at a pretty high rate, with an average 9.0 aDOT against them, which is also the 4th highest in the NFL. The Texans have eliminated the short and intermediate game, but that is not where Lamar has done his nastiest work this year. Look for a deep ball to be completed in this one, and for him to clear a prop he has in 9 out of his last 10 games anyway.
Play #4
Nico Collin's o 6.5 Receptions -125
@Fanduel
Dell suffered a scary knee injury in Saturday’s loss to the Chiefs. Texans HC DeMeco Ryans told the media Monday that Dell suffered a dislocated knee, a torn ACL, and other damage. The receiver will miss the remainder of the season. This is poor timing, as the Texans just clinched the AFC South title and a playoff berth. The Texans should be highly motivated to beat Baltimore on Christmas day. With Dell missing, Collins has huge upside. In the lone game Collins has played with Dell inactive this season, Collins caught 12 of his 15 targets for 151 yards and a touchdown vs. the Jaguars. The wideout led the Texans with a huge 38.5% target share in this win, including three redzone targets and two targets over 20 yards. Stefon Diggs (knee) played in this game and saw nine targets, but is now also unavailable with a knee injury. With Dell joining Diggs on the sidelines, a target share over 40% a real possibility for Collins this week. The Ravens’ pass defense has improved after a horrible start to their season, but Collins is one of the best receivers in the league.
CTB Lotto +889
