Results (0-2)
PLAY #1
Jordan Addison Long Rec 'O' 22.5 -128❌
@Fanduel
Now, this is the guy we're going to want to target in this matchup. And mainly because he was the one between him and Jefferson who popped off in Week 12 against the Bears. Addison caught eight of nine targets for 162 receiving yards and a TD. Against zone coverage, Addison has caught 28 of 36 targets for 519 receiving yards and a whopping 18.5 yards per reception with a 16.4 aDoT. Addison lines up pretty evenly between the slot (35%) and the right side (36%); however, once Hockenson returned, Addison has seen his slot percentage dip to 29.7% and his outside percentage raise to 69.7% (nice). Playing primarily on the outside, Addison will likely draw the Jaylon Johnson matchup. Johnson hasn't been targeted much lately, having allowed just seven receptions on 12 targets over the past four weeks, but has allowed 140 receiving yards for an insane 20 yards per reception. This includes three of those games where he allowed a 20+ yard reception. Addison should be the one to exploit this matchup, as he did just a few weeks back. Addison has recorded a 25+ reception in four straight games, averaging 47.8 longest reception per game.
PLAY #2
Aaron Jones Long Rush 'O' 15.5 -110❌
@Fanduel
The Bears run man/gap 47% of the time, where they allow 4.92 yards per carry. Jones averages 4.48 yards per carry against man/gap. Through the air, Chicago is allowing just 4.2 receptions and 32.9 receiving yards, which ranks around league average. Jones has better splits on the road, averaging 80 rushing yards per game to just 60 at home. But in this positive matchup, in a game where the Vikings are expected to be leading, Jones should see plenty of work to produce on the ground. The Bears have allowed opposing starting RBs to have a long rush of 29,11,13,41,28,30 over the last 5 games with the 41 long rush being from Aaron Jones himself. Look for him to breakout a 16+ yard rush.
(2-2)
PLAY #1
(BAL) Derrick Henry 'O' Long 20.5 Rush Yds❌
@Draftkings
Oh boy this guy could be in for a HUGE week! The Giants have allowed 3rd most YPC (4.97) and the 9th most attempts. Over the last 6 weeks they have been better allowing (4.24 YPC) but teams have still ran the 7th most attempts on them during this stretch and they have allowed an explosive run% of 7.8% which is the HIGHEST of any team and allowing the MOST yards after contact which is concerning for them coming into this game. Henry has had a ton of big gains this year and has had a 21+ yard rush in 9/13 games and in 6/L6 on the road
PLAY #2
(NYG) Tyrone Tracy 'O' 18.5 Rec Yds -113❌
@Fanduel
In his only start with Devito he had 4 targets for 28 yards against the Buccaneers who have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to backfield receivers to go with the 7th most receptions. Today he faces the Ravens who have been vulnerable to backfield receivers allowing the MOST receiving yards per game (41.6) whole allowing the 6th most receptions. Last week he saw 10 targets and had 38 receiving yards which is something that can’t be ignored! 19+ rec yards has great value!
PLAY #3
(HOU) Joe Mixon 'O' 21.5 Rec Yds -120✅
He has seen 4,4,6,6 targets the last 4 week and in 2 of those weeks he went up against the Titans and the Lions who allow the 3rd and the 7th fewest YPRR against backfield receivers. Today he has a great matchup facing the Dolphins who allow the 5th MOST YPRR (1.75) to backfield receivers. Mixon for 22+ yards is great value
PLAY #4
(BAL) Zay Flowers 1Q 10+ Rec Yds -154✅
@Fanduel
Flowers has a 30.9% Target% in the 1Q having 16 receptions in 13 games averaging 15.69 YPR. The Giants in the 1Q the last 6 weeks have ran Cover 3 (30.2%) and Cover 1 (27.9%). Flowers averages a ridiculous 4.86 YPRR in the 1Q against the Giants top 2 coverage types. Look for him to have a solid day but especially in the 1st quarter. Also Dionte Johnson is out!
LOTTO'S #1/#2
NFL Lotto
+666❌
+1584❌
(0-3)
TNF PLAY #1
Deebo Samuel 50+ Rec Yds (-125)❌
@Draftkings
I get he has been so unproductive the last 4 weeks having just 22,21,20,22 receiving yards but so many things are leading up to him having a breakout week. Let’s start with the fact with Deebo complaining about his targets. Last week on Twitter he stated “Not struggling at all I’m just not getting the ball!!!! Now reports ask head coach about his comments and here is what he had to say. Kyle Shanahan said Deebo Samuel’s posts on X weren’t a distraction to the 49ers and that he and Deebo talk every day. We'd like to get Deebo the ball more, and we'll continue to work on that," Shanahan told Lombardi. This finally feels like a game where Deebo gets heavily involved in the offense against a team that Deebo has historically crushed having 97,95,72,115,63 and 21 receiving yards the last 6 games. In the game he has 21 receiving yards he only played 33% of snaps and didn’t play the final 3 quarters. He was well on his way to put up another monster game against these guys having 21 yards after the 1Q! Look for him to get 50+ receiving yards!
TNF PLAY #2
Brock Purdy 250+ Pass Yds (-145)❌
@Draftkings
Purdy is averaging 253 passing yards per game, 8.69 YPA, a 66.8% completion rate and a QB rating of 98.7. He’ll face a Rams defense that’s allowing the 8th most passing yards per game (243) and the 7th most passing TDs (23). The Rams are towards the middle of the pack in pressure, ranking 13th in pressure rate over expected. They have played single-high at a 55.3% rate and allow the most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also play zone at a 74% rate and allow the 2nd most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. When these 2 teams played earlier in season week 3, the Rams played single-high at a 50% rate and zone at a 71.1% rate, close to their season averages. Purdy averages 9.21 YPA, a 66.1% completion rate and a 95.5 QB rating against single-high. That compares to 8.17 YPA, a 67.4% completion rate and a 101.8 QB rating against two-high. Against zone, Purdy averages 9.55 YPA, a 73% completion rate and a 104.6 QB rating. That compares to 7.36 YPA, a 56.3% completion rate and a 76.4 QB rating against man. Outside of the blizzard game against the Bills, Purdy is over his passing yards line in 8 of 11 games and was over in all 9 of his Home games last year. Now he gets to play without his top running back in CMC and possibly Isaac Guerendo as well. He should crush this line
TNF PLAY #3
Kyren Williams 1+ TD/40+ Rush Yds -131❌
@Fanduel
He has hit this in 8/13 games this season including 3 straight. he has had a TD in 3 straight and I don’t see that stopping today as this total sits at 49.5 and the 49ers allow the 2nd MOST rushing touchdowns on the season. Nick Bosa and some other key defensive pieces for the 49ers come into this one with a questionable as well which is huge and I expect the Rams to try to take advantage of that by handing it off to Williams and letting him do work with his feet. Also Williams has hit this in 3/4 Primetime games this year. Love this spot
Lotto #1
TNF Lotto (+317)❌
Kyren Williams 1+ TD/40+ Rush Yds❌
Brock Purdy 250+ Pass Yds❌
Deebo Samuel 50+ Rec Yds❌
