Thanksgiving Props
Play #1 (CHI) Caleb Williams ‘O’ 31.5 Rush Yds
In the past two games under the Bears’ new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown Williams has ran for 70 & 33 yards on the ground 9 and 6 rush attempts. On the season he has been over this in 6/11 games but today they face the Lions who pressure the QB a ton causing opposing QB’s to scramble. we can expect to see a favorable game script where Caleb will be forced to drop back as they will most likely trail most of the game. The Lions run man coverage at the HIGHEST rate in the NFL, and Caleb found success against man coverages team picking up 56 rushing yards against a Jacksonville defense that runs man coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league and are much weaker on the back end.
Play #2 (DET) Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush o16.5 (-110)
This guy is a DAWG! He has had a 17+ yard rush in 6 straight game and 9/11 this season. Today he will be facing the Bears who are sitting pretty at 31st in the league when it comes to allowing opposing running backs to break off those long runs. It’s like a buffet out there for Gibbs and the crew!
There’s more! The Bears have a tendency to struggle when they switch to man or gap coverage. Just last week, they tried to lock down Justin Jefferson, and, guess what? They let Aaron Jones run wild having 106 on the ground with a 41 yard again. So, it’s safe to say they might try that tactic again this week with the Lions' arsenal of receivers. That is good news for Gibbs. Love this line
Play #3 (GB) Josh Jacobs ‘O’ 16.5 Rushing Attempts -115
Dolphins have the third-lowest tackle grade at @PFF and are about to face Josh Jacobs on a short week in the cold. In wins this year Jacobs has put up 32,14,19,18,12,25,18,26 rush attempts and today I think he gets 17+ attempts today.
Friday Night Football (LV/KC)
Play #1 (LV) Aidan O’Connell 1+ INT -155
Chiefs have a tendency to play down to their opponents, allowing the likes of Bryce Young, Box Nix, and Gardner Minshew to go all-throw for over 200 passing yards against them. However, it's hard to back O'Connell, especially coming off a broken thumb on his throwing hand in this matchup.
Play #2 (KC) Travis Kelce ‘O’ 5.5 Rec -145
Which is great for this matchup, as the Raiders allow the third-highest catch rate (91.4%) inline and the 15th-highest catch rate (71.3%) to the slot. Regardless of where he lines up, Kelce should see a repeated production as he had against the Raiders earlier this season.