MNF Ravens vs Chargers Free Picks
Play #1 Justin Herbert 'O' 20.5 Rush Yds -115
Herbert seems to be finally healthy and he is using his feet more than ever. Over the last 2 weeks he has ran for 32 & 65 rushing yards. Today he faces the Ravens who have a top 10 pass rish which could lead to more scrambles for Herbert.
Play #2 Will Dissly 40+ Rec Yds -142
A lot of positives came out of that last game against the Bengals. Dissley was used more down the field having a 13.0 aDOT which resulted in him having 80 receiving yards on 4 receptions. To put that in perspective in his 9 games prior he was averaging just 4.0 aDOT. That is a good sign coming into this one facing the Ravens who have gotten torch in the passing game allowing 304.4 passing yards per game ranking DEAD last and the 3rd MOST to TE’s 66.9. Dissley has started to be one of Herbert’s favorite targets and I expect him to have a day! 40+ here should be easy
Play #3 Lamar Jackson 40+ Rush Yds -142
He has been over this in 9/11 games this season averaging 8.6 rush attempts. Lamar tends to use his feet more in Primetime games as over his L16 games in Primetime he averages 65.2 rushing yards and 11.2 attempts. Today he has a great matchup facing the Chargers who are allowing the 7th MOST rushing yards to opposing QB's. Love this spot and 40+ should be no issue
Sunday Slate Free Picks
Play #1 (TB) Bucky Irving 50+ Rush Yds -150
Today he gets the best matchup possible facing the Giants who have allowed the HIGHEST YPC through 11 weeks (5.27)😬. Reason they are so bad is because well, they are about dogshit at everything but especially bad against Explosive runs as 8.6% attempts are going for 15+ yards (#32/32). They also have the 5th most missed tackles (53) and the 3rd most yards after contact😂 all you can do is laugh at those stats. Irving is a star in this league and to be able to get 50+ rushing yards at these odds against this team is just disrespectful!
Play #2 (PHI) Dallas Goedert 'O' 48.5 Rec Yds -115
No DeVonta Smith, so we should see a heavy dose of Goedert. In this one. Goedert is averaging 55.3 receiving yards per game, 2.32 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He is 3rd on the team in 1st-read rate at 21.3% and with DeVonta out, should see extra volume. He’ll face a Rams defense that allows the 5th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. Take the over
Play #3 (KC) Travis Kelce 'O' 56.5 Rec Yds -113
Last week he was no where to be found getting 2 receptions on 4 targets and I expect him to bounce back in a big way against a terrible Panthers team who allow 8.9 yards per target to opposing TE’s which is the 3rd MOST in the NFL. The Chiefs need to get some momentum on the offensive side so they will not be playing around. Kelce has a big day! Take advantage of it.
Play #4 (IND) Alec Pierce 'O' 28.5 rec yds -120
This simply comes down to if he can catch the long ball and I like our chances in this one against the Lions. Pierce has the highest average depth of target in the league with 21.9! In fact this is the highest average depth of target in the last 4 years. The Lions on balls thrown for an average depth of target of 15+ have allowed 9 receptions which is the 2nd MOST and a 64.3% catch rate the 5th highest. Also the Colts are probably going to be down in this one which =‘s more chances. Very low line and is good for the alternates.
Play #5 Chiefs -9.5 -120
The Panthers have to be feeling much better after an awful start to the season in seeing some life out of their young QB in Bryce Young as of late, but facing the Chiefs fresh off a loss is a brutal ask for this team, which really has nothing it can do defensively to contain the weapons of the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense remains one of the most dominant units in the game. I expect to see the Chiefs take an early lead and suffocate the Panthers away in this one.