Play #1

Bogdan Bogdaovic 'O' 12.5 -111

@Fanduel

Has been under his closing line in 6 straight games and in these games he has had a line of 12.5/12.5/12.5/15.5/10.5/11.5 and today he gets a 12.5 line where on the season when getting that has put up 18,17,8,15,20,7,10,10 going over this in 4/8 games. Today he plays @PHX where he shoots well making 12/L25 3PA’s 48%. This is a game where Bogi gets back on track and gets his!

Play #2

Deandre Ayton 'O' 13.5 Pts -130

@Fanduel

He has been under his closing line in 4/L5 games and that leaves his line a little missprced in my opinion getting 13.5 line against the Mavs who allow the 5th MOST PPG to centers and in 3 games against them this year he had a closing line of 15.5/13.5/14.5 and he went on to score 18,16,21 points so he has shown his ability to over exceed expectations against these guys. If Ayton has gone over his closing line in 4/L5 I think we see a 15.5/16.5 line here. When Ayton has got a 13.5 line he has went on to score 14+ points in 5/L6 games having 22,18,22,16,10,18 points.

Play #3

Lauri Markannan 'U' 24.5 Pts -115

@Bet365

Markkanen is coming off a 35-point game against Atlanta, but he has been a player that the books over value in terms of production expected. He has been under his closing line in 13/L17 games and not only that but when getting a 24.5 closing line he has went on to score just 24,21,10,12,17,22,26,11,29,13,18,35 going under in 9/12 games. Today he faces the Heat which is a tough match as they allow the 7th fewest points per game this season. MIA is also a slow pace team, ranking 4th lowest in the league. He saw this Heat team a few days ago and managed just 15 points in 27 mins. I think this number is just too high for how he has historically responded to high lines and it makes me even more confident if a tough matchup.