Play #1

James Harden 'O' 7.5 Ast -150

*After struggling in the assist department in Decmber, Harden’s assist numbers are back up with the return of Kawhi.He’s averaging 58.5 passes made & 17.5 potentials L2 compared to only 45.5 passes & 11.5 potentials in December.Harden matches up against a Nuggets defense allowing the 4th most assists to PG and the 3rd most overall L15 games.The Nuggets are coming off a B2B and Jokic is questionable with an illness. The Nuggets allowed 7 assists to Jrue and 8 to Jaylen Brown last night sans Jokic.

Harden’s 3 matchups vs DEN this szn:
• 16 assists on 18 potentials
• 11 assists on 18 potentials
• 6 assists on 10 potentials (December)

Looking at assist location, Denver allows the most assists per game from 2s. 68.25% of Harden’s assists come from 2s, compared to a league average of 57.3% of assists coming from 2s.

Play #2

Khris Middleton 4+ Ast -150

@Fanduel

Middleton has been moved to the bench as he’s struggled to play with Damian Lillard on the floor. now because of that his line drops to 3.5 which is extremely shocking. Over the past 8 games his closing line has been 5.5 in 5/8 and 4.5 in 3/8. When Lillard plays with Middleton, Khris has an ast% of 20.1. When Dame is off the floor, Khris has an ast% of 37.3 and a usage rate of 22%. Now we have a sample size as he has came off the bench in 4 games while Damian Lillard started and it those games he put up 5,6,8,4,3 assist going over this in 4/5 games. Today he faces the Spurs who have struggled vs P&R ballhandlers all season allowing the second most points overall and 15th in terms of points per possession. That is huge because Asia that pick and roll with Giannis will be in full effect! 4 assist for a player like Middleton

Play #3

Tyrese Maxey 'U' 30.5 Pts -110

@Fanduel

This 76ers team is banged up as Joel Embiid and Paul George will be out but that has left the books inflating Maxey’s line today and he historically does not do well in these situations scoring wise. Over his L2 seasons when seeing a 30.5 line he has went on to score just 35,15,28,6,24,23 points going under this line in 5/6 games. Not only that but when seeing a 31.5+ line which has been set 5x the L2 season he has went on to score just 12,23,25,21,23 going under in 5/5. Super inflated line and I will gladly take the under

CTB Lotto +569