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Play #1
Demar Derozan 'O' 3.5 Ast +108
@Fanduel
We'll start with a little +EV talk here. This line is close to +100 everywhere else, including sharper books like FD and Caesars. Starting with about 20 points of value is. DeRozan has only cleared this mark in 3 of his last 6, but the potential still remain solid. Even last game, he had just one assist, but on 8 potential assists (2nd best on the team).Over his last 6, DeMar is averaging 7 pAsts per game. MIA is allowing the 12th most assists per game. Like the price here!
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Play #2
James Harden 'U' 20.5 Pts -160
@Fanduel
Scored only 10 points with a usage rate of 20% in his first game with Kawhi back.Last season, he was under this in 70% of games when Kawhi played and his average usage rate was 21%. Yes, PG was also there, but Norman Powell has essentially taken that role over.Harden is under in 75% of games this season when his usage rate is under 30%. Fully expect him to become more of a facilitator with Kawhi back.Concerning Kawhi’s minutes, he actually played 15.8 in the 1H, he was on pace for 30+. None of the starters played the 4Q due to the blowout. Expecting a good amount of mins for Kawhi.
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Play #3
Joel Embid 'O' 33.5 Pts+Ast -115
@Fanduel
Usage rate above 30% in 7 straight. He’s played 31 and 29 minutes last 2 games, which were blowouts and he didn’t play the 4th. He will see 35+ barring a blowout.He’s hit in 6 of L8 with 29+ mins and 30%+ usage. He had an 86% hit rate last season with these filters.He matches up against a Suns defense allowing the 3rd most points and 8th most assists to C L15.Will continue to take this until they start moving this line up!
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CTB Lotto +498
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