#𝟭𝟬 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗮 𝘃𝘀 #𝟳 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝗺𝗲
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Indiana this year is 11-1 this season and they have dominated every other game other than a nasty weather game @ Ohio St. As for Notre Dame, they are 3-0 versus top 30 teams and they have covered in each of those games, by an average margin of 7.0 points.
Indiana Offense + Notre Dame Defense:
My main question for this game is how will Indiana score? Coming into this game they have the 35th highest run percentage in the country and Notre Dame is allowing 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks 22nd best in the country. They’ve also forced more fumbles than rushing touchdowns allowed. What interests me most though is Indiana’s rushing tendencies in their two top 30 matchups this year: in those games they ran the ball 60% of the time, which is much higher than their run percentage versus teams outside the top 30. Not to mention over those two games they averaged 1.8 yards per carry, yet they still wanted to stick with the run. I honestly just don’t see them having much success on the ground and through the air might even be worse for them. Notre Dame is allowing 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 2nd best in the country. They also have a 2.1 interception to passing touchdown ratio on defense.
Notre Dame Offense + Indiana Defense
What about Notre Dame’s offense? Since their bye week they have scored 31+ points in every game, and they are averaging 37.9 points per. As stated above, Notre Dame has performed well versus top 30 teams, covering in each game. In those games though they have had a 62% run percentage, and as 7.5-point favorites in a big game they should lean on the run even more. It’s worth noting though that running the ball might be tougher for them though considering Indiana is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry, which ranks 2nd best in the country. Notre Dame has not played many good defenses this year and I think Indiana may give them some struggles early.
Prediction
It's really hard to predict who is going to come out on top of this but I do expect this one to be a grind it out low scoring type of game making me take the FREE points with Indiana. Also, ND has been solid, but it would be classic ND if they choked this game here. I'm not a big fan of HC Marcus Freeman as he has lost to many games to far less superior teams including early on in the season to Northern Illinois who finished their season 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Indiana football will bring a big crowd on the road. Hoo Hoo Hoo Hoosiers get the upset! My favorite pick is backing both of these defenses and going with the under.
Picks
Best Bet: Under 52.5 -110
Lean: Indiana +7.5 -115
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀
PLAY #1
Riley Leonard Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
@Fanduel
Riley Leonard is the quarterback for Notre Dame, and he is under this line in three straight games and when Notre Dame wins by less than 24 he is also under this in 5/6. Over those 6, he is averaging only 44.3 per game. As we know Notre Dame draws Indiana and they are allowing only 2.5 yards per carry, which ranks 2nd best in the country. They’ve also forced 6 straight opposing QBs to go for negative rushing yards.
PLAY #2
Justice Ellison 50+ Rush Yds
Justice Ellison is the primary running back for Indiana, and he is over this in 9/12 and he is averaging 67.6 yards per game, and over his L5 games he is averaging 15.0 carries per game. As stated above, Notre Dame has a great pass defense, ranking 2nd in that metric. But their run defense is much worse, ranking 22nd in yards per carry. Indiana went run heavy versus both Ohio State and Michigan. I would not be surprised if they go run heavy here as well.
