#9 Tennessee vs #8 Ohio St
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The Volunteers are headed North to take on the Buckeyes in Columbus and this game truly intrigues me. Both teams are coming out of the two top conferences, but they just weren’t quite good enough to earn that first round bye. This game has the lowest over/under of the weekend and that is for good reason. That is also what I’m most interested in for this game.
What can we expect from Tennessee on offense?
They have the 11th highest run percentage in the country, which ranks highest amongst all other playoff teams. I feel this metric will naturally elongate the game and take the pace down quite a bit. They have undoubtedly met their matchup though versus Ohio State because they are allowing 2.8 yards per carry, which ranks 5th in the country, and 5.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 8th in the country. Tennessee has also played five top 50 teams and they failed to eclipse 25 points in each of them, averaging only 20.6 points per. To go along with Ohio State’s dominant defensive metrics, they show up when it matters most. In games versus top 50 opponents, they are allowing an average of only 16.2 points, and if you exclude the one game versus the only undefeated team in the country on the road, that number drops drastically to 12.8 points per. Not to mention Tennessee ranks outside the top 20 in offensive yards per carry and yards per pass attempt. I don’t think they have enough firepower to score more than 17 points here.
Similarly, I think Ohio will struggle with the ball. They’re pretty balanced offensively and their metrics aren’t really jaw dropping: they rank 12th in offensive yards per pass attempt and 32rd in yards per carry. Tennessee should be able to give them fits though considering they rank 16th in opponent yards per pass attempt and 4th in opponent yards per carry. They are also allowing less than .8 individual passing and rushing touchdowns per game. To go along with that, they have allowed only 20.6 points per game versus top 50 teams. Not to mention Ohio State is averaging only 214.3 passing yards per game since their bye and over that stretch they have yet to have a 100-yard rusher. I just don’t think they are dominant enough on offense to eclipse 27 here.
In conclusion, a spread pick does not seem evident to me. I feel this game will be decided by 6-10 points in Ohio State’s favor and I’m not willing to take either side. The under is most definitely my best play though. I think both defenses, especially both run defenses, will dominate this game. They have really shown up when it matters most versus good teams this year. I’m thinking Ohio State wins this game by a score of 24-17 here.
Best Bet: Tennessee Under 19.5 Points (-120)
Lean: Under 46.5 (-112)
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PLAY #1
Carnell Tate Over 48.5 Receiving Yds (-114)
Carnell Tate is a wide receiver for Ohio State, and he has exceeded this line in four straight games, and over that stretch he is leading the team in receptions. At home this year is also over this line in 6/7, averaging 64.2 yards per game. Ohio State also has one of the best receivers in the country, Jeremiah Smith, and a good team like Tennessee will likely be scheming to stop him. I feel this will naturally open gaps for Tate. Not to mention Tennessee has a much better run defense than pass defense.
