#8 Ohio St vs #7 Notre Dame
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Ohio State + Notre Dame
Ladies and gentlemen, the final game of this years’ college football season is upon us. It is going to be a clash between two teams who weren’t really expected to be here, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Ohio State has undoubtedly had the tougher road to get here and in their three most recent games they have looked very good, covering in each of them by more than seven points. As a result, they are 8.5-point favorites in this game, which is pretty strong, but for good reason. I think they will win this game without any major issues, but I’m more interested in something a little bit different.
What can we expect from Ohio State’s offense this game?
Coming into this game they are averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 5th in the country. What I think has been most impressive over their playoff run is the performances of Will Howard, over the last three games he is averaging 306.3 yards per game and has a total completion percentage of 73.9%. Their passing game has just been so good because of both him and their elite pass-catchers. But Notre Dame is no walk in the park, they are allowing only 5.7 yards per pass attempt, which ranks best in the country. I think if Ohio State really wants to dominate this game though they need to rely on the run game, despite them limiting it recently. In three straight games Judkins and Henderson have combined to average more than 5.0 yards per carry and Notre Dame is most vulnerable on the ground, allowing 3.7 yards per carry, which ranks 29th in the country. Not to mention they’ve allowed two straight opposing RB committees to average more than 5.0 yards per carry. Ohio State shied away from the run last week for no real reason and that is what worries me for this game, I just don’t know what we can expect from them.
As for Notre Dame on offense I’m not fully convinced. They’re yet to exceed 27 points over their playoff run and 38% of their touchdowns have come from either plays for more than 50 yards or touchdowns from special teams. Ohio State has one of the best defenses in the country and what they do best is limit big plays, I just don’t think Notre Dame will be able to create a big touchdown on offense and I don’t see them being able to move the ball consistently. Not to mention Ohio State is allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 2.7 yards per carry, which each rank top 5 in the country. I’ve said this in weeks past and I will say it again, Ohio State’s defense most importantly shows up when it matters most. They have held six of their last seven top 50 opponents under 18.5 points, and they are averaging only 14.9 points. Because of that, I like for Notre Dame to be yet another team to not exceed this line versus Ohio State.
In conclusion, I think it is unfortunate that the championship game has an 8.5-point spread, but that is the spread for good reason. My marquee pick for this game is Notre Dame under 18.5 points. I would take Ohio State -8.5 but that line being more than just a touchdown kind of deters me. Not to mention their offense was kind of stagnant last week and they struggled to put points up on the board. If they really want to win this game, they need to incorporate the run more, but to be honest I don’t know if they will.
Suggested Pick:
Notre Dame Under 18.5 Points -105
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀
PLAY #1
Treveyon Henderson Over 58.5 Rush Yards (-120)
Treveyon Henderson has been very efficient for Ohio State this year, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and exceeding this line in 11/15 games, including having 80+ in 2/3 playoff games. As stated above, Notre Dame has a very good pass defense, but their run defense is much worse, ranking 29th in the country in yards per carry allowed. Going further on that point, they have faced only five teams this year who average more than 5.0 yards per carry and four of those five teams ran for more than 200 yards versus them. Ohio State veered away from the run last week and I would be shocked if they don’t try to emphasize the run early in this matchup.
