#8 Ohio St vs #5 Texas
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
The Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns are set to meet on Friday, and they are both hoping to secure a spot in the championship game. Their paths to this game differ drastically though: Ohio State has beaten both Tennessee and Oregon by 20+ points, despite being favored by an average of only 5.5 points in each game. As for Texas, they’ve beaten Clemson and Arizona State, but both margins were less than both of Ohio State’s wins, despite playing the far easier two teams. Their defense has been lacking and I don’t think they have a good enough offense to keep up with Ohio State.
But what specifically can we expect from Ohio State on offense?
They have the 62nd highest run percentage in the country this year and they have ran the ball more than they have thrown it in five straight games versus top 25 teams. You have to watch out for the run versus them but what stands out to me most is how well Will Howard has been through the air: he has thrown for 300+ yards in back-to-back games and has averaged more than 10.0 yards per pass attempt in each game. Keep in mind those games were versus Tennessee and Oregon, two very solid defenses. Texas’ defensive stats on the whole season are very good but over the last two weeks they have fallen off immensely: both Clemson and Arizona State each threw for 300 yards, despite these teams ranking outside the top 20 in yards per pass attempt in the regular season. If Clemson and Arizona State can fare well through the air versus Texas, I can’t imagine how Ohio State will do. Not to mention Texas is allowing 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks bottom half amongst the initial 12 playoff teams. Ohio State’s team total is 30.5 and I think they exceed that pretty easily.
As for Texas, their offense has been alright. They’ve scored more than 31 points in regulation (exclude OT) only twice since October 12th though. The numbers back up their mediocrity on offense, they’re averaging 4.4 yards per carry, which ranks 52nd in the country, and 8.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 23rd. It also does not help them that Ohio State literally has the best defense in the country. Opponents are averaging only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 2.7 yards per carry, which each ranks top 3 in the country. Ohio State has also faced seven top 50 opponents this year and only one of them has exceeded 21 points, and they are averaging only 16.9 points per game. Texas’ offensive struggles have definitely been evident this year and I truly don’t see them scoring enough to stay within reach of Ohio State.
In conclusion, Ohio State has one of the hottest offenses and literally the best defense in the country. Texas hasn’t looked too dominant over the last two weeks versus two lackluster opponents, and I think this will be a wakeup call for them. I’ll back Ohio State here without a doubt.
Suggested Pick:
Ohio State Over 29.5 (-120)
Ohio State -5.5 (-122)
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀
PLAY #1
Treveyon Henderson Over 50.5 Rush Yards (-120)
Ohio State kind of has a committee at RB but Treveyon Henderson seems like the much more appealing back in my opinion. He has exceeded this line in 12/14 games this year and versus ranked opponents he is averaging 9.4 carries and 76.6 yards per game. Not to mention Texas’ run defense is the worst pass/run defense in this game. I also stated above how Ohio State has run the ball more than they’ve thrown the ball in five straight games versus top 50 teams.
PLAY #2
Will Howard Under 13.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Will Howard has gone under this line in 5/L6 games and over that stretch he is averaging only 8.3 yards per game. If you didn’t know sacks count for negative yards for QBs in college, unlike the NFL. That is good for this prop because Texas ranks 4th in sacks per game this year. It seems the odds are in our favor here.
