#8 Ohio St vs #1 Oregon
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Ohio State and Oregon are set to draw each other in what is anticipated to be the best playoff game yet. It is a shame that they have to face each other this early because I think these two teams each rank top three in the country. And in case you don’t remember, these teams faced each other in Oregon in October, and it was a tightly matched game. But I honestly think Ohio State controlled the game because they had higher than a 50% chance to win the game for 87% of the 60 minutes and Oregon never got ahead by more than 1 point. In this game though I expect Ohio State to get their revenge.
Ohio State has the 69th highest run percentage in the country, so they’re pretty balanced. On top of that they rank 6th in yards per pass attempt and 24th in yards per carry. Last week I was really worried about their offense versus Tennessee, but they had no problem whatsoever. To be honest, I think Tennessee has a much better defense than Oregon. Oregon ranks 8th in opponent yards per pass attempt, but only 51st in opponent yards per carry. If Ohio State can establish the run game early, I think they will be able to control the game. Not to mention Oregon is allowing top 50 opponents to average 24.7 points per game versus them. To go along with that, they’ve played three of the eight remaining playoff teams and they allowed each one of them to record at least 31 points. I’m banking on Ohio State being able to get 31-35 points here.
Now what about Oregon on offense? Similarly to Ohio State, they are also very balanced, having the 60th highest run percentage in the country. Oregon also ranks 12th in yards per pass attempt and 42nd in yards per carry. Those numbers are a little bit worse than Ohio State’s, but Oregon has shown up when it matters most considering they are averaging 36.1 points per game versus top 50 teams. That number even jumps to 38.0 points versus teams who still remain in the playoffs. With that being said, Ohio State has a great overall defense and that should be able to give them a slight advantage. Ohio State ranks 2nd in opponent yards per pass attempt and 4th in yards per carry. These numbers are truly dumbfounding considering they’ve had a pretty tough schedule up to this point. Not to mention Ohio State has held five straight top 50 opponents to under 20 points. Will Oregon be able to break the streak? We will see, I guess.
With that being said, my marquee pick for this game is Ohio State -2.5. I think they have the better offense, the better defense, and they are trending the better way in comparison to Oregon. Oregon has flirted with some losses this year and it seems one has been looming. Don’t let the ranks fool you, Ohio State is the better team. I will also back the over at 55.5 for half of my unit amount on Ohio State -2.5. My prediction is that Ohio State wins this game 35-24.
Suggested Pick:
Ohio State -2.5 (-115)
Over 55.5 (-115)
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀
PLAY #1
Evan Stewart Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Evan Stewart 80+ Receiving Yards (+550)
Evan Stewart is the WR2 for Oregon and I think he could have a big game for them. Ohio State undoubtedly has one of the best secondaries in the country and I think they will give a lot of attention to Oregon’s star receiver, Tez Johnson. With Tez Johnson pulling a lot of coverage I think Stewart will be able to flourish. He is averaging 5.6 receptions per game over his L3 and when he has gotten 4+ receptions this year he is averaging 100.8 yards per game. I feel the value we are getting with the ladder is amazing. Not to mention I think Oregon will be down more in this game than they have been down all season, which means they should emphasize the passing game even more.
