#7 Notre Dame vs #6 Penn State
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Notre Dame Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions are set to take each other on in what is anticipated to be a close and low-scoring game, considering Notre Dame is only favored by one point and the over/under is 44.5. Notre Dame’s only loss this year came all the way back in September to Northern Illinois, but since then they have undoubtedly been trending in the right direction. As for Penn State, they’ve historically struggled versus good opponents, but they have now picked up two playoff wins, so maybe that trend is no longer relevant. I think these teams are honestly very evenly matched.
What can we expect from Notre Dame on offense?
On the season they have a 54% run percentage, which ranks 40th in the country. And over their L2 games that number has slightly risen to 56%. Riley Leonard is their dual threat QB, and his running ability only emphasizes the run even more for Notre Dame. It’s worth noting too that Notre Dame is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, which ranks 3rd best in the country. This could be seen as a tough matchup for Penn State, but they had an even harder matchup last week versus Boise State, who runs the ball even better than Notre Dame. But Penn State held them to average only 2.7 yards per carry. Not to mention Penn State ranks 8th in yards per carry allowed this year, which is way better than Notre Dame’s last opponent, Georgia. Penn State is also allowing less than 190 passing yards per game, and they’ve forced more interceptions than passing touchdowns that they have allowed. I think they will be up to the challenge versus Notre Dame.
But what about Penn State?
They have a 57% run percentage, which ranks 31st in the country. But over their last five games they are running the ball more than 60% of the time. They also run the ball quite efficiently, considering they are averaging 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks best in the BIG10. Notre Dame’s run defense also does not rank very good this year but in each of their playoff games they’ve forced opponents to average 2.7 yards per carry or less. Notre Dame has also held Indiana to 3 points, until two minutes were left in the game, and Georgia to 10. I think they have a very good defense and given James Franklin’s poor play calling in bigger games, I would not be surprised to see their offense somewhat dwindle here yet again versus an elite defense.
In conclusion, I am expecting a heavy dosage of the run game by each team, maybe even 60%. I feel this will naturally drain the clock and limit possessions for both teams. Not to mention these defenses have shown up when it matters most over the last couple of weeks. My marquee pick for this game is the under, but I also intend to target some props. I’d say Penn State wins this game 24-17.
Suggested Pick:
Under 44.5 (-110)
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PLAY #1
Jordan Faison Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jordan Faison is a wide receiver for Notre Dame, and he has exceeded this line in two straight games, and over that stretch he has accounted for 46.3% of Riley Leonard’s passing yards. Considering Leonard’s passing yard line is set at 168.5, I feel a rough estimation for how many yards Faison should get is 78. As we know, Penn State has a great run defense, but their pass defense is not nearly as good: they rank outside the top 20 in yards per pass attempt allowed and they’ve allowed an average of 260.7 yards per game over their last three games. Notre Dame has gone more run-heavy over the last few games, but in a closer projected game they should maintain their pass attack. Expect Faison to get some action.
PLAY #2
Kaytron Allen Over 58.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Kaytron Allen 80+ Rush Yards (+200)
