#7 Notre Dame vs #2 Georgia
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Notre Dame and Georgia will face each other on New Year’s Day for the last game of the second round of the playoffs. I’m going to start off by saying how I think each of these teams are kind of overrated and neither seem to be dominant enough to win a championship. In my opinion, I think both Ohio State and Oregon would each beat these teams by four or more. But nonetheless, here we are. What stands out to me initially is Georgia’s tough road to get here, they’ve faced five top 10 teams and have gone 3-2 versus them, including two straight big wins. In contrast, Notre Dame has only played in one game anywhere close to this toughness of this upcoming game since August. I just don’t feel confident about them in this matchup.
What can we expect from Georgia’s offense in this game?
They have the 114th highest run percentage in the country, but without Carson Beck they are probably going to try and establish the run, which is what they did versus Texas. I don’t think Carson Beck being out is necessarily a catastrophic thing for Georgia though because he has not been as good as you would think the QB of Georgia would be. Since their initial bye he is averaging 1.2 interceptions per game and only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. I am willing to take the chance that Georgia’s offense will be better with Gunner Stockton, he will also be well prepared. It is undoubtedly going to be tough for him though considering Notre Dame is allowing 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 3rd best in the country. Not to mention Georgia is averaging only 4.2 yards per carry on offense, which ranks 82nd in the country. Evidently, I don’t think Georgia will score more than 24 points here.
But what about Notre Dame on offense?
Coming into this game they have the 44th highest run percentage in the country and as a team they are averaging 6.2 yards per carry, which ranks 3rd best in the country. This poses a tough matchup for Georgia’s run defense considering they are allowing 3.7 yards per carry, which ranks 32nd in the country. It’s worth noting though that they’ve forced three of six opposing top 25 teams this year to average 2.0 yards per carry or less. I think they’ll be able to limit Notre Dame just enough. Kirby Smart is a phenomenal coach and I expect him to gameplan enough to slow Notre Dame down on offense.
To be honest I think Notre Dame has an ever-so-slight statistical advantage over Georgia, but those statistics don’t account for opponent quality. I simply cannot take an independent team to beat a team who has played five top 10 teams this year. I think this game will heavily feature the run on both sides of the ball and that should aid in running the clock out from the start. With Georgia’s uncertainty at QB, and Notre Dame’s lackluster strength of schedule, I’m thinking this game will be low scoring. I’ll go ahead and predict Georgia wins this game 20-17 but stick with the under for now.
Suggested Pick:
Under 45 (-110)
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀
PLAY #1
Jadarian Price Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Jadarian Price 50+ Rushing Yards (+260)
Jadarian Price is an RB for Notre Dame, but Jeremiyah Love has predominantly been the main RB for them this year. But over the L3 weeks Price has out carried Love and as a result, he is averaging 11.0 carries per game over that stretch. In games where he has had 6+ carries this year he has exceeded this given rushing yard line of 26.5 in 10/10, averaging 62.2 yards per game. Apart from Love’s big run last week, he had only 10 yards on 7 attempts. I think sometimes they like to switch it up and Price should see 8-10 attempts in this game. Not to mention Georgia is allowing 3.7 yards per carry, which ranks 32nd in the country. The value is too good to not take in my opinion.
