#6 Penn St vs #3 Boise St
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Penn State is set to draw Boise State in the second round of the college football playoffs on New Year’s Eve. The books are thinking that Penn State is going to win this game by quite a bit, considering they are favored by 11 points. That number seems kind of lofty, but for good reason I suppose. Both these teams have a run percentage of 56.8% and that ranks about 34th amongst all teams in the country. I’m going to dig a bit deeper below in this article.
What can we expect from Penn State on offense?
As we know, they have the 34th highest run percentage in the country and they are very balanced, ranking 12th in yards per pass attempt and 17th in yards per carry. These numbers each rank top 3 amongst all BIG10 teams. My main concern for them was their offense but they’ve disproved me considering they’ve scored 37 and 38 points in each of their L2 games versus Oregon and SMU, who each have very good defenses. I feel the win last week versus SMU kind of takes the pressure off of them and proves that they can actually perform well in a big matchup. That confidence should carry over. Boise State barely snuck in the playoffs and with the 86th highest strength of schedule ranking in the country, I feel they just aren’t ready for this game. Despite the poor teams they’ve played, their defensive metrics aren’t even good: ranking 81st in yards per pass attempt and 25th in yards per carry. They are also allowing 24.5 points per game on the road, compared to only 19.7 at home. I think Penn State will be able to score with no problem.
Now what about Boise State?
They rank 53rd in yards per pass attempt and 2nd in yards per carry. With Ashton Jeanty manning the backfield, their run game has been great. I just worry they will be down, and he won’t get enough opportunities to make this close. Penn State’s defense, similarly, to their offense, is extremely balanced. They rank 19th in yards per pass attempt and 11th in yards per carry allowed. It’s worth noting though that Boise State did play Oregon this year and score 34 points. Evidently, I don’t know how to feel about Boise State and I worry if they’ll abandon the run if they find themselves down 10-14 in the first half.
In conclusion, I feel Penn State’s win last week versus SMU was a huge confidence boost for them considering how poorly they’ve played versus good teams over the last decade. Their offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders as well. I think their offense will continue to be very good because Boise State’s defensive metrics are very mediocre, and they have not even played a lot of good teams. As for Boise State on offense, I don’t really know how they’ll pan out and because of that I don’t want to take a play that involves them.
Suggested Picks:
Best Pick: Penn State Over 31.5 (-115)
Longshot: Penn State Over 37.5 Points (+175)
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀
PLAY #1
Kaytron Allen Over 52.5 Rush Yards (-120)
Kaytron Allen 80+ Rush Yards (+250)
Kaytron Allen 110+ Rush Yards (+750)
Penn State has a system committee at RB, but in the bigger games this year Allen has gotten slightly more carries than Singleton. In games versus top 50 teams this year he is averaging 14.4 carries and 81.4 yards per game. Boise State’s run defense is undoubtedly better than their run defense, but their run defense still ranks poorly in comparison to other playoff teams. Not to mention they’re allowing 4.73 yards per carry over their L3 games.
PLAY #2
Tyler Warren 80+ Receiving Yards (-120)
Tyler Warren is the star TE for Penn State, and he actually received a Heisman vote this year. In games versus top 50 teams, he is also averaging 84.4 yards per game, and away from home he is averaging 8.6 receptions and 105.8 yards per game, having 100+ in 3/5. There is no doubt he is the primary playmaker for the Nittany Lions, and in their biggest game they should emphasize getting him the ball. Not to mention Boise State ranks 81st in yards per pass attempt allowed, and they have not even played many good pass offenses this year.
