#5 Texas vs #4 Arizona St
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Texas is set to draw Arizona State in their second playoff game of the year and with Arizona State coming off a bye they might be too rested. Despite Texas being 13-point favorites, I still think Arizona State is a really good team. But to be honest, there is a huge gap between Texas and a really good team. Texas handled business last week with no problem versus Clemson and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of that momentum spills over.
If you haven’t noticed yet, there is one major commonality between all great teams: they’re all balanced with their play selection. Texas has the 79th highest run percentage in the country and there is no doubt that they have a great passing game with Quinn Ewers, but their run game over the last few weeks is what has shocked me the most. Coming into this game Texas ranks about 25th in both yards per pass attempt and yards per carry, which is not what you would quite expect from a team as good as them. I still think they have a huge advantage over Arizona State because their defensive metrics have not been outstanding. They rank 29th in opponent yards per pass attempt and 41st in yards per carry. Not to mention Arizona State has not really faced any “great” teams this year. Texas might just be too much for them.
What about Arizona State on offense?
They have the 11th highest run percentage in the country and that is mainly due to how dominant Cam Skattebo has been. Coming into this game they rank 11th in yards per pass attempt and 39th in yards per carry. Being big underdogs means they will most likely have to throw it more, which will probably be better for them considering they’ve thrown the ball better than they’ve ran it. Versus top 50 teams this year they are also averaging 31.8 points per game. Unfortunately for them, Texas has a phenomenal defense. They rank 1st in opponent yards per pass attempt and 12th in yards per carry. It’s worth noting though that their run defense has worsened over the last couple of weeks. Maybe Arizona State can slow this game down and find success on the ground?
In totality, I think Texas should win this game without any major problems. But I don’t really want to take them -13 just because I think Arizona State could hang around late and make a garbage time push. I also don’t really think Texas has enough offensive firepower to win this game by 24 or more. My official play for this game is a little bit weird, I am taking Texas halftime/fulltime and pairing it with Arizona State +23.5, which yields odds of +130. Arizona State has not played since December 7th and I think they start slow but fight back late.
Suggested Pick:
Texas HT/FT + Arizona State +23.5 (+130)
Texas 1H -6.5 (-110)
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PLAY #1
Quintrevion Wisner Over 90+ Rush yards (-115)
Last week we targeted Wisner and he absolutely cashed us out, so why not go right back to him? Over his L3 games he is averaging 22.3 carries per game and last week the only reason he did not get a lot of carries was. Because he got no action late in the game because of the large lead. But he should come out hot again in this matchup. In games where he has had 10+ carries this year he is averaging 100.1 yards per game, and he has also had 110+ in 3L4. I noted above how Arizona State has had a lackluster run defense and that same idea applies here. Not to mention Texas is a big favorite and they should place an emphasis on the run yet again.
