#12 Clemson 𝘃𝘀 #5 Texas
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Clemson barely beat SMU last week and as a result they are playing who I think is the best team in the country, Texas. Other than when they play Georgia, they are phenomenal. Versus teams who rank 10-30 they are 4-0 ATS and have covered by an average margin of 10.5 points. As for Clemson, they are 1-3 versus top 30 teams and a miracle kick away from flirting with a fourth loss. I can’t get on board with them at all and I think Texas has so much more to play for, especially coming off a loss.
What can we expect from Clemson on offense?
They have the 26th highest pass percentage in the country and versus quality teams this year they throw the ball way more. As considerate underdogs in this game, I honestly think they will just completely abandon the run, which will not work in their favor at all. Clemson this year is averaging only 7.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranks bottom half in both the country and in the ACC. So, they don’t even throw it that well. It also does not help them that Texas literally has the best pass defense in the country. Despite Texas’ brutal schedule, they are allowing only 5.1 yards per pass attempt, which ranks first in the country. They also have a 4.3 interception to passing touchdown ratio on defense, which truly is incredible. Not to mention Cade Klubnik, Clemson’s quarterback, has only completed 60% of his passes since their second bye week. This is significant because throwing incompletions versus Texas is a very bad thing because you get put in long second and third downs, where you are most prone to make mistakes. Not to mention Clemson has scored 24 points or less in 4/L5 games versus FBS opponents.
If that is not enough to convince you, let's talk about Texas’ offensive advantage.
They are balanced but as 12-point favorites, they should naturally run the ball more, especially with the tandem of Quentrevion Wisner and Jayden Blue. This is where Clemson is most vulnerable though, they are allowing 4.6 yards per carry, which ranks 89th in the country and dead last amongst all playoff teams. I think that Texas will be able to pound the run game all day long and find great success versus one of the easier defenses they will have in the second half of their season.
In conclusion, Clemson throws the ball a ton and they throw it very poorly, as big underdogs they’re going to have to throw the ball even more. This is very good for Texas though considering they have the best pass defense in the country. Not to mention Clemson is yet to have an above average game versus a good team all year. My marquee pick for this game is most definitely Clemson under 20.5 points, but because I think they’re prone to mistakes on offense and getting crushed defensively on the ground, I’ll take Texas -12 as well.
Best Bet: Clemson 'U' 20.5 Pts -155
Lean: Texas -12 -125
Longshot: Texas -23.5 (+256)
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀
PLAY #1
Cade Klubnik Over 27.5 Rush Yds (-114)
Cade Klubnik is the quarterback for Clemson and he has exceeded this line in 10/L11 games. Texas is undoubtedly the toughest passing defense he has faced in his lifetime and if he wants to find any success it will be on the ground. Hopefully he just doesn’t get sacked a ton.
PLAY #2
Quintrevion Wisner Over 87+ Rush Yds (-125)
Quentrevnion Wisner 120+ Rush Yds (+245)
Texas’ main RB has had a major fumbling problem this year, so Wisner has stepped into a more profound role. Over the L2 weeks he has totalled 52 carries, in comparison to the main RB who has had only 7 over that stretch. As we know they draw Clemson this week and they have a terrible run defense: they are allowing 4.6 yards per carry which ranks 89th in the country. Texas is also a considerable favorite in this game, and they should stress the run. As for the ladder, when he has gotten 10+ carries this year he is averaging 113.1 rushing yards per game.
