#11 SMU 𝘃𝘀 #6 Penn St
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SMU is headed to Pennsylvania in an attempt to pull off a big upset, and I like their chances. Penn State has lost 15 straight games versus top 10 teams by an average margin of 12.3 points, and they have stayed true to that trend this year considering they are 0-3 ATS versus top 30 teams. As for SMU, I think they are very underrated. Some people wanted Alabama to make the playoffs over them and I think that puts a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Not to mention their only two losses this year have each come by three points, to BYU and Clemson, who are each pretty solid. I think they have a good enough edge to cover.
What should we expect from SMU on offense?
They have the 58th highest run percentage in the country and they’re most effective on offense through the air. Kevin Jennings is their quarterback, and he is averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks top 10 in the country. He is also dual threat which adds another entity, especially when you may find yourself playing from behind. SMU has also had 28+ points in 10 straight games and in games versus top 50 teams they are averaging 38.8 points per. Granted Penn State has a solid defense, they are allowing 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 14thbest in the country, and 6.2 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 26th in the country. It’s worth noting though that almost every other playoff team ranks either top 10 in yards per carry or yards per pass attempt allowed, but Penn State does not. I think they aren’t completely good enough to totally shut down SMU. Penn State has also allowed top 50 opponents this year to average 25.4 points per game versus them. Look for SMU to get 20-24 points here.
But what about Penn State’s offense?
They run the ball 56% of the time, which ranks 35th in the country, but at home that number is about 4% higher and as favorites that number also jumps up about 3%. I expect running the ball to be their main priority, but that may not work out for them. SMU is allowing only 2.7 yards per carry, which ranks 3rd best in the country. I really do think SMU’s run defense will set the tone. Not to mention they’ve allowed more than 34 points only once this season, and I do not think Penn State will be the second team to do it. Penn State has also struggled versus top 50 teams on offense this year as well, averaging only 26.2 points per game. I don’t see them exceeding 28 points here.
It's easy to blind fade Penn State just because of how poorly they’ve been versus good teams over the last decade, which I have done this season and will continue to do, but when you dig deeper into this game it becomes evident that SMU has a slight advantage. I love the metrics of each team and how they play in SMU’s favor. Look for them to win outright!
Best Bet: SMU +8.5 -125
Lean: Under 52.5 -115
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PLAY #1
Kevin Jennings Over 19.5 Rush Yds (-110)
Kevin Jennings 40+ Rush Yds (+400)
Kevin Jennings 50+ Rush Yds (+550)
As stated above, Kevin Jennings is the quarterback for SMU, and he is dual threat. SMU has had only four games this year where they did not win by 10 points or more. In those games he has had 35+ rushing yards in each one, and over those four he is averaging 10.2 rushing attempts and 56.8 yards per game. Because of this trend, I feel we are getting tremendous value on the entire ladder. Penn State also has a pretty good defensive line and secondary which means Jennings might be more prone to run. Not to mention SMU is the biggest underdogs they have been all season, which means they will most likely have to throw the ball more, or at least try to throw the ball more.
PLAY #2
Tyler Warren ATD (-140)
Tyler Warren is the standout tight end for Penn State, and I think if anyone is going to get a touchdown for them, it would be him. He has had 6+ receptions in five straight games and he also leads the team in total receiving touchdowns. SMU’s run defense is also much better than their pass defense: they are allowing only .8 rushing touchdowns per game, but 1.9 passing touchdowns per game.
