In his L3 seasons when coming off a bye, he has blown up. Last year, he had 12-158 (2TD), in ’22 he posted 11-150 (2 TD) and in ’21 Lamb had 6-112. He’s going to go off on SNF! Has a very good matchup facing the 49ers

The Commanders have been a run funnel, as they have allowed the 4th highest rush rate over expectations. They allow the 6th most YPC (4.93) and the 2nd highest explosive run rate (8.0%). They specifically struggle vs man/gap concepts, allowing the 2nd most YPC (5.96). About half of Swift’s attempts are in man/gap run concepts, where he has a 47.8% success rate, compared to a 37.2% success rate in zone concepts. HHe has had 1+ TD in 3 straight games and this is another matchup he can taek advantage of.

Connor hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in 3 weeks, but had tough matchups. LAC has only allowed one touchdown all season to an RB, while GB and SF have only allowed 5 and 6 rushing TD’s to RB’s over 7 games. MIA has allowed 9 touchdown to opposing RB’s and one through the air as well. Connor’s rushing output can be variable depending on the early success, but I think he could end his rushing TD drought here.

Shakir has operated as Josh’s underneath guy, with the lowest aDOT on the team (3.9). The Seahawks allow the 5th lowest target share to outside receivers, but the 11th highest target share to the slot. Shakir has run 74.2% of his routes from the slot. The Seahawks rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. When Josh Allen has been pressured, Shakir leads the Bills receivers in YPRR (2.37). Last week in Cooper’s debut, Shakir caught all 7 of his targets for 65 receiving yards. His aDOT was only 0.6 yards, lowest on the Bills. The Seahawks as a defense have allowed the lowest aDOT in the NFL, meaning Shakir is primed to be peppered with targets as the underneath guy, especially not being the focal point of opposing game plans anymore with the addition of Cooper.