Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Lions) Jahmyr Gibbs -175
Last week against the Colts Montgomery was a little banged up and that makes me even more confident in backing Gibbs to find the endzone eventually in this game to make it his 9th game to score on the season.

Longshot: (Lions) Sam LaPorta +250
LaPorta has been consistent, with a 67.0% route run rate, and also has seen the 3rd highest yards per route run on the team at 1.82. While the Bears have put their defensive emphasis on stopping top WRs, this in turn has led to some holes against TEs, allowing the 23rd most yards per game against the position in the NFL at 58.2 yards per game while in many zone concepts. I would say this overall is a place where LaPorta could be at a solid buy low point. Laporta has had 1+ TD in 1/4 games @Home this year bit we can'5 forget this man was a beast @Home last year scoring 1+ TD in 7/10 games.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Lions) David Montgomery +390
I expect the Lions to score early and Montgomery getall of the redzone carries in the 1Q. This season Mongtgomery has 11 carries inside the 10 compared to 0 for Gibbs in the 1Q

Longshot: (Bears) Caleb Williams +2600
Williams is taking off and running more with their new offensive coordinater and if the Bears so happens ot get the redzone first I think this has a ton of value. A player who has not scored a TD all year?!?! That is why it has value.. Nobody is on him 

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Giants) Tyrone Tracy +155
The Giants only scored 7 points last week in Divito’s season opener but today they will be facing the Cowboys who have allowed the MOST rushing touchdowns per game (1.7). Tracy was benched for a portion of last game due to a fumble and saw his slowest snap share since week 5 at 41%. Prior to that, his lowest snap share was 57%. The Cowboys force the 4th highest rush rate over expected, so as long as this one remains close and he takes care of the football, I’d expect a lot of rush volume for Tracy. He has had 1+ TD in 3/L7 games and 3/L5 when getting 16+ rush attempts. I like the value

Longshot: (Cowboys) CeeDee Lamb +165
I know this is not really a Longshot but these odds are insane for a player like CeeDee Lamb! Giants defense has the 4^thhighest pressure rate over expected and the 10^thhighest blitz rate (30.4%). Against the blitz, CeeDee averages 3.53 YPRR, 34% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 40.3%.

First Touchdown Scorer

CeeDee Lamb +600
Lamb has yet to have a 1Q TD and last season he had a TD in the 1Q 6/18 games. Love this spot and really good value 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Best Pick (Packers) Josh Jacobs -165
On the season, Miami allows 89.8 rushing yards per game to RBs (20th most), a 4.34 YPC average (17th), and a modest 4.8% explosive run rate (19th). While their TD rate allowed to RBs (3.7%, 14th highest) offers some scoring potential With another good workload expected

Longshot (Packers) Tucker Kraft +250
Miami’s vulnerabilities against tight ends present an opportunity for Kraft to bounce back, especially in scoring situations. This could be a week where he re-emerges as a key part of the Packers' offense.

First Touchdown Scorer

Best Pick: (Packers) Josh Jacobs +350
If the Packers score first I expect Jacobs to be the first TD scorer. The Packers use this guy a ton so the chances will be there in the RedZone

Longshot: (Dolphins) Jonnu Smith +1600
Has had 2 1Q TD’s this year and he has a great matchup against the Packers. Green Bay's defense is vulnerable against tight ends, allowing the 12th most receptions (5.45) and receiving yards (57.5) per game, along with four touchdowns on the year.