Anytime Touchdown Picks
(PIT) Najee Harris 1+ TD +100✅
Najee has averaged 74 rush yards per game on 4.35 YPC. 33.3% of his rush yard production has come from explosive runs, which is up from 26.9% from last season. He’ll face a Commanders' defense that allows the 2nd most YPC (5.13) as well as the 3rd most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.67). Harris is averaging 3.2 Redzone rushing attmpts per game. He should get into the endzone here
(MIN) Justin Jefferson 1+ TD -105❌
No TD’s in 2 straight games and now he faces The Jaguars who allow the 4th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars play the 2nd highest rate of man coverage (41%) and they allow the 6th most fantasy points per drop back when they run it. Against man coverage, Jefferson averages an insane 4.73 YPRR and has been targeted on 33% of his routes.
(SF) George Kittle +140✅
This looks like a nice spot for Kittle. The Bucs are allowing the second most receiving yards to opposing TE’s this season (69.7 per game) and 5th most receptions per game (6.11). Kittle owns a 9.3 aDOT, 21.3% target share and 13.43 YPR vs zone this season. Vs man, he owns a 6.2 aDOT, 19.4% target share and 12 YPR. He’s the one guy we can look to that really stands out in this matchup. Not to mention, he’s been awesome this season and probably the most reliable pass catcher in this offense.
First Touchdown Picks
(PHI) Jalen Hurts +600✅
It’s probably going to be Barkley or Hurts if it’s an Eagle, so I’ll take the better value here. Hurts has TD’s in each of his last 3 games and 5 of his L7. In his last 5, he averaging 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game. With an already bad Dallas team missing their starting QB, it makes sense PHI scores first.
(NYG) Malik Nabers +650❌
If NYG is gonig to score first against any team, CAR makes a ton of sense. The target share is insane for Nabers, who ranks 2nd in the NFL with 12 targets per game (only behind Cooper Kupp). CAR is allowing a TD to a WR per game this season and Nabers 9 redzone targets on the season.
(TEN) Calvin Ridley +1600✅
Eww right? We get Levis back this week and Ridley is back to being the WR1 in this offense without Hopkins. One thing we know, for better or worse, is Levis is likely gonig to sling it around. That could be good for a deep threat like Ridley.