Janaury 18th
Play #1
Matthew Stafford 'U' 50.5 1Q pass yds -114
@Fanduel
The Rams are awful in the first quarter only scoring 6 times and only having a touchdown in 2 of the 6 games that they scored in the first quarter. Over the last 5 he has had 22,9,11,66,0, passing yards in the first quarter. The Vikings do give up the 14th most yards a game to the quarterback position, but the Rams are just a terrible team in the first quarter. The last time he played the Vikings he had 9 pass attempts and 6 completions in the 1st for 64 yds. He had 13 yds in the air last game against Min, so 51 of his yards were all after the catch. I see Stafford staying under this 50.5 line.
Play #2
T.J Hockenson 'O' 44.5 rec yds
@Fanduel
Hockenson is averaging 49.5 yards per game and has 5+ targets in 7 straight games. Hockenson is averaging 10.4 yards per reception and has the 3rd most air yards of any tight end in the L10 weeks. He faces the Rams who have allowed the 4th most yards and the 3rd most receptions to tight ends. Buying low after he had just 9 yards last week against the Lions. In that game he still had 8 targets but was at the mercy of a terrible Sam Darnold game. Perfect bounce back spot here for Hockenson
CTB Lotto +378
Play #1
Derrick Henry 'O' 20.5 Rush Att -114
@Fanduel
Derrick Henry showcased one of the most efficient seasons of his career, adapting his running style to thrive in different offensive setups. This year, a career-high 57.4% of his carries came from the shotgun formation, allowing him to capitalize on a lighter box on 20.6% of his runs—another career best. These adjustments resulted in Henry averaging 2.41 yards before contact per rush, the highest mark of his career. He also recorded explosive plays at an impressive rate, with 13.8% of his carries going for 10 or more yards, his best since 2019. Additionally, his 46.2% success rate as a runner marked his most efficient season since his rookie year. The two matchups against Pittsburgh this season demonstrated how game flow influences Henry’s involvement. In Week 11, Pittsburgh successfully dictated the script, limiting Henry to just 13 touches. Despite his efficiency—averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown—he had only five second-half touches and none in the fourth quarter. However, the story shifted in Week 16 when Baltimore controlled the game and kept Henry heavily involved. He carried the ball 24 times for 162 yards, including 11 second-half carries for 87 yards, with 73 of those yards coming in the fourth quarter alone. Henry’s late-game dominance was a recurring theme this season; he amassed 1,119 rushing yards and averaged 6.4 yards per carry in the second half of games, compared to 740 yards and 5.1 yards per carry in the first half.
Play #2
Mark Andrews 1+ Touchdown +135
@Fanduel
Mark Andrews saw a reduction in his playing time in 2024, but he still made a significant impact when on the field. His route participation rate of 65.8% was his lowest since 2019. Despite a slow start to the season, Andrews found his rhythm in the offense, finishing among the top tight ends in several key categories from Week 5 onward. Over that span, he ranked 10th in receptions (49), 6th in receiving yards (608), and 1st in touchdowns (11), while also placing 15th in targets (60). He recorded just 57 fewer yards than Travis Kelce, despite Kelce receiving 52 more targets. During this stretch, Andrews was 3rd in yards per route run (2.21), behind only George Kittle (2.84) and Trey McBride (2.28). He has proven to be incredibly efficient when given opportunities and remains one of the top touchdown producers at his position. Andrews has scored in six consecutive games and in 10 of his last 12. If Zay Flowers is absent or limited, Andrews could see an increase in opportunities. In Week 18, with Flowers off the field, Andrews matched Rashod Bateman with a team-high 7 targets (29.2%). He also played a larger role, running a route on 82.8% of the dropbacks without Flowers on the field. In the two games against Pittsburgh, Andrews was on the field for 57.1% (2-22-0) and 68% (4-37-1) of the dropbacks, indicating that his usage could vary depending on the game script and personnel available. Regardless, we can expect Andrews to get his usual looks in the red zone.
Play #3
J.K Dobbins 'O' 14.5 Rush Att -120
@Fanduel
Boy did this Chargers team miss Dobbins. Since his return, Dobbins has carried the load, recording 19 and 18 rush attempts, good for 76 and 63 rushing yards. And that's how Jim Harbaugh wants to play. Lean on the run game, especially in the playoffs. The Texans won't be an easy matchup for Dobbins, as they're allowing the 11th fewest rushing yards (86.2) to opposing RBs per game. Houston runs about even in terms of zone and man/gap run concept, but struggle much more against man/gap, averaging 4.55 yards per carry to 3.59 against zone concept. Which does line up well for Dobbins, as he performs much better against man/gap, averaging 4.95 yards per carry, while also facing that run scheme on 58.5% of his runs. Dobbins should be relied upon heavily in this matchup, one that Vegas thinks the Chargers win. In Chargers wins this season, Dobbins has logged 15+ rush attempts in six of nine games this season, averaging 16.2 per game. On the road this season, Dobbins has rushed 15+ times in five of seven games, landing on 14 in both games he missed, averaging 17.4 per game. And while Edwards is back healthy for this week, when it's the playoffs, they should be playing Dobbins his normal workload.
PLAY #4
Diontae Johnson 'O' 14.5 Rec Yds -110
@Fanduel
Despite being with the team for just three weeks. However, Johnson was given plenty of opportunity last week to play in this offense –– even though it was with backups –– as he played 37% of the snaps, catching two of his four targets for 12 receiving yards. On the season, Johnson has caught 17 of his 30 targets for 181 receiving yards and one TD against zone coverage. Last week, Johnson ran 72.2% of his routes on the outside, and with Collins primarily on the left side, Johnson would see most of his routes on the right, drawing the Kristian Fulton matchup. Fulton has been targeted often over the past four weeks, allowing 17 receptions on his 19 targets. It's a little risky with a small sample size as a member of the Texans, but if we're predicting Collins to draw the double team and Johnson's their next best weapon, facing off against a CB prone to allowing receptions, he might be primed for a good game. I mean this could be1 catch for us to cash this
