January 19th

play #1

AJ Brown 'O' 64.5 Rec Yds -110

@Fanduel

There is a lot of talking going on around this Eagles offence and AJ Brown after he wasn't utilized against the Packers last week. Brown caught just one of his three targets for 10 receiving yards last week. But doesn't this sound familiar? Brown was publically frustrated because he wasn't getting the ball for a few weeks in the middle of the season, with just four receptions for 43 receiving yards against the Carolina Panthers. And what happened the following week? Brown went off against the Pittsburgh Steelers, catching eight of his 10 targets for 110 receiving yards and a TD. Could we see some of the same this week against the Rams? He's already done it against this season, as in an earlier matchup in Week 12, Brown caught six of his seven targets for 109 receiving yards and a TD. The Rams are great at limiting receptions to opposing WRs, averaging just the second fewest receptions (10.4) but the 11th fewest receiving yards (142.1) per game. With the Rams running the seventh most zone coverage in the league, Brown should see a healthy amount of production. He sees his yards per reception (16.6) and aDoT (13.1) increase in zone compared to man. Brown runs the majority of his routes on the right side and will often draw the Darious Williams matchup. Williams has been heavily targeted this season, and has consistently allowed yards to opposing WRs. He's allowed 42 receptions on 68 of his targets, averaging 41.8 receiving yards per game. Against the Eagles in Week 12, Williams allowed four receptions on six targets for 86 receiving yards. Brown had all 86 of those receiving yards against Williams in that game, and should be able to do it again, especially with all the chatter around him this week.

Play #2

Mark Andrew's 'O' 0.5 TD +165

@Fanduel

After a slow start to the season, Andrews has picked it up. From weeks 1-5, he averaged 24 receiving yards per game, 1.25 YPRR and was targeted on 15% of his routes. From week 6 onward, Andrews has averaged 44.6 receiving yards per game, 2.30 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He has also caught 11 TDs during this time. The Bills have been around the middle of the pack in both receiving yards and TDs allowed to TE. Andrews has lined up in the slot on 63.8% of his routes and inline on 19.8%. The Bills allow the 12^th most YPRR, and the 9^th highest target share against the slot since week 11. They allow the 9^th most YPRR, and the 11^th highest target share against inline. From a scheme perspective, the Bills have run zone coverage 72.2% of the time since week 11 (9^th highest) and have run two-high 54.5% of the time (also 9^th highest). Outside of Zay, who’s inactive again this week, Andrews has been the most efficient Ravens receiver against zone, averaging 2.17 YPRR on 20% TPRR. Against two-high, Andrews averages 1.93 YPRR on 21% TPRR.

play #3

Kahil Shakir 'O' 49.5 Rec Yds -115

@fanduel

Shakir is averaging 54.7 receiving yards per game, 2.27 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. He has the highest 1^st-read rate on the team at 24.9%. The Ravens this season allow the 3^rd most receiving yards per game to WR, but they have really improved their pass defense since week 11 as they are number 1 in both EPA/DB and DB success rate. Shakir has operated primarily out of the slot, accounting for 73.1% of his routes. Since week 11, the Ravens have allowed the 14^th highest target share and the 7^th fewest YPRR to the slot. Since week 11, the Ravens have played the 8^th highest rate of single-high (60.3%) and the 8^th highest rate of man (34.6%). They did however lean into zone in their week 4 matchup, playing it at a 77.8% rate. I expect higher than average frequency of zone and single-high in this matchup. Against single-high, Shakir has negative production splits on similar volume, averaging 2.18 YPRR, 27% TPRR and 23.7% 1^st-read rate. Against zone, Shakir sees positive splits averaging 2.68 YPRR, 31% TPRR and a 30.1% 1^st-read rate. If I’m choosing a Bills receiving weapon to produce, it’s easily Shakir.

CTB Lotto +563

Janaury 18th

Play #1

Olamide Zaccheus 'O' 34.5 Rec yds -110

@Fanduel

Play #2

Sam Laporta 'O' 0.5 TD +150

@Fanduel

Sam LaPorta had a solid rookie season with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his second season saw a step back in overall production. He finished the year with 60 catches for 726 yards and 7 touchdowns, though he averaged more yards per catch (12.1) and yards per target (8.7) compared to his rookie year. However, LaPorta's target volume decreased, as he saw just 5.2 targets per game in his second season, down from 7.1 per game in his first. Toward the end of the season, LaPorta regained his role in the offense, finishing with an improved average of 4.8 catches and 53.3 yards per game, alongside 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games. During that stretch, he received 20.4% of the team's targets, the second-most behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, and was targeted on 21.4% of his routes, up from 12.3% of the targets and 14.1% of routes prior to that. LaPorta's increased involvement in the passing game is noteworthy, as he has now seen at least 6 targets in 8 consecutive games, demonstrating that he is a key part of the offense as the season progressed. In their matchup against Washington, LaPorta will face a defense that has allowed 7.5 yards per target to tight ends (17th in the league), along with an 8.4% touchdown rate (31st). These numbers suggest that while the Commanders are not the toughest against tight ends, they do give up a significant number of touchdowns to the position, which could present a valuable opportunity for LaPorta in the red zone.

Play #3

Nico Collins 'O' 26.5 Lng Comp -120

@Fanduel

Nico Collins stepped up for the Texans on Saturday, delivering a standout performance with seven catches on eight targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. It was just his second 100-yard outing since returning in Week 11, but it marked his fifth touchdown in the last eight games. Without key weapons like Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs in the lineup, Collins has become the focal point of Houston's passing game, commanding targets on 32.4% of his routes and averaging an impressive 2.76 yards per route run. The Texans will lean on Collins heavily again as they face the Chiefs, who have excelled at limiting opposing WR1s this season. In their Week 16 matchup, Collins managed seven receptions on 10 targets but was held to a modest 60 yards, underscoring the Chiefs' ability to contain primary threats. However, Collins thrives against man coverage, and the Chiefs’ defensive tendencies could play into his strengths. Kansas City used man coverage on 30.8% of passing plays this season, a rate they maintained in the Week 16 meeting. Collins has been targeted on 35.1% of his routes against man coverage compared to 25.9% against zone, making him a dangerous weapon when defenses go one-on-one. In that earlier matchup, he posted 59 of his 60 yards against man coverage while drawing targets on 40% of his routes in those situations. For Houston to generate big plays, they’ll need to create opportunities for Collins to exploit these matchups. With his combination of size, speed, and ability to produce after the catch, Collins will be the key to keeping Houston's passing attack competitive against a tough Kansas City secondary.