QB Sam Darnold
In what was the biggest game of his career last week against the Detroit Lions, Sam Darnold did not preform for the Vikings, and thus, are playing on the road against the Los Angeles Rams while the Lions get a bye week. Darnold had the worst week of what has truly been a revitalizing season, throwing for his lowest completion percentage (43.9%) and lowest passing yards (163), in what was primed to be a good matchup. The Rams on the other hand, allow the 12th fewest completions (20.8), the 13th fewest pass attempts (31.9), but the ninth most passing yards (241.2). Darnold and the Vikings have already faced the Rams earlier this season in Week 8. And he had a fairly good game despite the losing effort, going 18/25 for 240 passing yards and two TDs. The Rams run the seventh most zone coverage (73.5%). Darnold has done well against zone coverage this season, averaging the sixth most passing yards (180.8) per game, the 10th highest yards per attempt (8.1), the sixth highest aDoT (8.5) but the 16th highest completion percentage (68.4%). Indicating that he is able to connect often with the deep ball, which plays perfectly into the Rams defensive weakness of allowing the big plays. The Rams rank middle of the pack in terms of completion percentage, but rank somewhere in the top 10 for passing yards allowed per game (187), yards per attempt (7.9), aDoT (8.0) and deep throw completion percentage (11%). Darnold is completing the 11th highest deep ball percentage (11.6%) against zone coverage. He has also thrown for a 40+ yard pass in eight of 17 games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Sam Darnold 40+ Longest Pass Completion (+100)

RB Aaron Jones
In what was a very strong start to the season (logging 90+ rushing yards in four of his first six starts as a Viking), Jones has seen his production dip over the final three weeks of the season. He has rushed for 50+ yards just once over that span, averaging 53 yards over that span. The Rams look like a bit of an easier matchup for Jones, however, as they allow the 12th most rushing yards (101.5) to RBs per game this season. The Rams run about even amount of zone concept (42.3%) and man/gap rush coverage (41.7%) and actually allow the exact same yards per carry (4.48) in either coverage. Which is just fine for Jones as he averages nearly the same yards per carry against zone (4.36) and in man/gap (4.49). While Jones has seen his workload (and production) decrease as Cam Akers is getting some more run with the team, his role as the receiving back is very much still healthy. Jones has logged 20+ receiving yards in four straight games, averaging 26.5 receiving yards per game. Which is nice for Jones as the Rams also allow receiving yards to RBs, averaging 34.2 per game. In an earlier meeting against the Rams this season, Jones struggled with a 3.8 yards per carry (19 rushes for 58 yards), but took his two targets for two receptions for 37 receiving yards. In a game that is expected to be high scoring, they'll likely need to rely on Jones in the passing game.

Suggested Pick:
Aaron Jones o19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Justin Jefferson
The NFL playoffs are better with Justin Jefferson in them. Jettas wrote off all those nay-sayers and had another great season, proving he can do it with any QB. He caught 103 of his 150 targets, for 1,533 receiving yards and 10 TDs, which was good for the second most receiving yards in the NFL. Jefferson will be looking to outperform his playoff debut in the 2022 season, where he finished with seven receptions on nine targets for 47 receiving yards. While we shouldn't doubt his ability to "get his," it may be a little tougher this week against the Rams, who are allowing the second fewest receptions (10.4) and the 11th fewest receiving yards (142.1) to WRs this season. However, Jettas had no problem in their earlier matchup, catching eight of his nine targets for 115 receiving yards. With the Rams being a heavy zone team, it should be a busy week for Jefferson. Jettas dominates target share in zone, garnering a 25.6% against the coverage, seeing his catch rate jump from 44.1% against man to 76.0% against zone, however, his yards per reception, yards after catch per reception, yards per route run and aDoT all take a dip when switching to zone coverage. It could be a big possession game for Jettas. Jefferson lines up all over the field, but 39% on the left side and will likely draw the Ahkello Witherspoon matchup. Witherspoon was one of the starters who sat for the majority of the game last week. However, he did play 13 snaps, and allowed a reception on all three of his targets. The three weeks before that where he started, he was targeted a whopping 23 times, allowing a reception on 14 of those targets, for 177 receiving yards. Jefferson has logged seven receptions in five of his last six games, and as we mentioned, had eight against the Rams earlier in the season, despite playing against a team who're great at limiting opposing WRs receptions.

Suggested Pick:
Justin Jefferson o6.5 Receptions (-115)

WR Jordan Addison
Addison has done a great job of playing second fiddle and still finding ways to garner targets when one of the leagues top receivers are on the other side of the field. Outside of last week against the Lions –– where I think we can just write that off for the entire Vikings team –– Addison was a scoring machine, catching 26 of his 34 targets for 300 receiving yards and five TDs. In their earlier matchup this season, Addison struggled, only seeing three targets, turning that into two receptions for 22 receiving yards. With the Rams running a lot of zone coverage, he sees a small uptick in target share, up to 17.6%, his catch rate improves to 74.5%, his yards per reception to 15.7, his yards after catch per reception to 3.7, and his yards per route run to 2.05. Addison lines up on the right 39% of the time and will often draw teh Darious Williams matchup. Williams has been pretty locked down over the past few weeks, allowing nine receptions on 17 targets, for an average of 33 receiving yards over the past three weeks. He might be the one to struggle in this matchup of all the Vikings weapons tonight.

Suggested Pick:
Jordan Addison u59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE TJ Hockenson
Now this is the guy that should really be able to exploit this Rams pass defence, and you don't have to look further than their recent performance against TEs. In Week 18, Noah Fant had five receptions on six targets for 63 receiving yards and one TD. In Week 17, Trey McBride had 12 receptions on 16 targets for 123 receiving yards and his first TD on the year. In Week 16, Tyler Conklin had five receptions on seven targets for 59 receiving yards. The Rams get targeted at the TE position at third highest rate in the NFL, averaging 8.4 targets per game, allowing the second most receptions (6.2) and the fourth highest receiving yards (64.8) per game. Hockenson missed the game against the Rams this season but returned the week after. What's great for TEs against zone heavy teams is that this allows them to slip into the open pockets of the defence. But when they do run man coverage, Hockenson is targeted at this highest rate of any Vikings receiver (28.8%). Hockenson lines up in inline 55.9% of the time. To inline receivers, the Rams allow the sixth highest catch rate (81.2%) and the fourth highest yards per game (35.6). Hockenson has registered 45 receiving yards in three of his previous five games.

Suggested Pick:
TJ Hockenson o44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Matthew Stafford
Despite having his full allotment of talent in the receiver room, Stafford has very much limped his way into the playoffs. Over the past three games, Stafford has failed to throw for 200 passing yards, averaging 153 passing yards per game, with just one TD to show for it. There are some rumblings that he might ride off into the sunset after this playoff run. And with his recent play, it looks like his play is declining. However, the Rams decided to sit most of their starters last week, so maybe the rest will help Stafford in this matchup. In an earlier meeting against the Vikings, Stafford had one of his best games of the season, going 25/34 for 279 passing yards, four TDs and one INT. Minnesota is a great target for opposing QBs, as they allow the second most completions (24.4), the most pass attempts (37.4), and the fourth most passing yards (261.5) per game. The Vikings run the sixth most zone coverage (73.7%). Stafford is about league average against zone coverage, throwing for the 14th most passing yards (162.2), the 15th most yards per attempt (7.8) and the 18th highest aDoT (7.0). What Stafford does best against zone coverage is he has a very high completion percentage, completing 73.8% of his passes, good for eighth highest among QBs. While he doesn't have the recent form, only completing an average of 16 passes over his previous three weeks, those were games where he saw three of his lowest aDoT games since Week 3. What does a low aDoT mean? A higher likelihood of completed passes. Oh, also, Stafford had 25 completions against Minnesota earlier this season and they have allowed five of their last seven opposing QBs to throw for 23+ completions.

Suggested Pick:
Matt Stafford o22.5 Pass Completions (+100)

RB Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams was a bell cow this season, seeing the third most carries (316), and would have gone higher had the Rams needed to play for something in Week 18. Kyren wasn't as productive with those touches, as he finished with the sixth highest rushing yards (81.2) per game. However, he had a nose for the end zone, finishing with 14 on the season. The Vikings are a difficult matchup, however, allowing the fifth fewest rush attempts (19.1) and the sixth fewest rushing yards (79.2) per game to opposing RBs. Minnesota primarily run zone concept run defence at 56.4% of the time, allowing a surprisingly high 4.6 yards per carry. This isn't much of an advantage for Kyren, as he averages the exact same yards per carry against zone and man/gap concept (4.11). In their earlier meeting this season, Kyren was force fed the ball, rushing 23 times for 92 yards, but had his six game TD snapped. However, he was used a lot in the passing game, catching five of his six targets for 19 yards. The Vikings are targeted at the 13th highest rate to RBs, allowing the 18th most receptions (4.2) but the sixth fewest receiving yards (27.3) per game. While his season long numbers don't look great for the passing game, he has caught all nine of his targets over the past five games. And with Blake Corum out for the remainder of the season, and Kyren averaging 86.8% of the snaps, he should be able to grab at least two receptions. He has 2+ receptions in nine of his 16 games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Kyren Williams o1.5 Receptions (-145)

WR Puka Nacua
Nacua has really taken over as Stafford's favourite target since returning from injury in Week 8. Nacua has caught 75 of his 99 targets for 955 receiving yards and three TDs in his previous 10 games. That has been glorified over the past four weeks, as he garnered 43 targets, grabbing 37 balls for 444 receiving yards. He made his return to the Rams lineup in Week 8 against the Vikings. He caught seven of his nine targets for 106 receiving yards. The Vikings get targeted at the second highest rate in the NFL against WRs, allowing the most receptions (15) and the second most receiving yards (183.2) per game. With the Vikings running mostly zone coverage, Nacua should be in for a big game. He garners a massive 35.8% target share against the coverage, and sees his catch rate improve to 81.4%. He has massive numbers against the coverage, with a 12.4 yards per reception, 5.9 yards after catch per reception and 3.59 yards per route run. Nacua lines up on the right side 49% of the time and will often draw the Shaquill Griffin matchup. Griffin hasn't been a full time starter over the past five weeks, but has allowed 10 receptions on 20 targets for 182 receiving yards. In what projects to be a competitive game, Nacua will likely continue to see his high level of targets, and while Stafford's aDoT has decreased over the past few weeks, should turn into Nacua being able to catch a few balls against the league leader in receptions allowed to the position. Nacua has loged 8+ receptions in three of his previous four games.

Suggested Pick:
Puka Nacua o7.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Cooper Kupp
With Nacua's rise, has come Kupp's fall. Kupp has struggled over his previous three weeks, catching just four of his nine targets for just 53 receiving yards. This is a massive fall from grace after Kupp's Week 1 explosive where he caught 14 of his 21 targets for 110 receiving yards. When these two teams played in Week 8, Kupp caught five of his eight targets for 51 receiving yards. With the Vikings running majority zone coverage, Kupp sees his catch rate jump to 73.7%, his yards per route run jump to 2.15 and his aDoT rise to 8.1. Kupp lines up in the slot 58% of the time and will likely draw the Byron Murphy matchup. Murphy is going to be a tough matchup for Kupp, as the six-year CB was honoured with his first Pro Bowl for his play this season. Murphy has allowed a lot of receptions over the past five weeks but hasn't turned that into too many yards against. He has allowed 19 receptions on 27 targets but for only 181 receiving yards, an average of 36.2 receiving yards per game. In Week 8 against the Rams, Murphy allowed four recpetions on five targets but just for 23 receiving yards. Given Kupp's recent struggles, we can't see him getting too involved in this matchup. The Vikings mostly struggle against outside WRs, allowing the second most receiving yards per game, but that dips to fifth against slot WRs.

Suggested Pick:
Cooper Kupp u49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Tyler Higbee
It's been a slow return to Higbee, but that's to be expected after sustaining such a significant injury so late last season. Through Week 16 & 17, he played just 14 snaps. But last week, he saw an uptick, playing 23 snaps, seeing seven targets and turning that into five receptions for 46 receiving yards. The Vikings allow the 14th most receptions (5.2) and the 15th most receiving yards (51.8) per game to the position. Higbee lines up inline on 73% of his routes. The Vikings are great at limiting opposing inline receivers, allowing the 11th fewest yards per reception, and the 14th fewest yards per target, but the 12th highest catch rate. If last week was a preview of what's to come for Higbee, plus another week past for him to get up to game speed, Higbee should see plenty of targets in this matchup. He also has the same advantage as Hockenson for a TE playing a zone heavy team, giving him the ability to find the open pockets in the opposing defences.

Suggested Pick:
Tyler Higbee o2.5 Receptions (-140)

This projects to be the best game of the NFL playoffs thus far. Which, shouldn't be hard considering the stinkers we've seen already. The Rams defeated the Vikings in their earlier matchup 30-20. After we saw Darnold struggle in his biggest game of the season, I think the pendulum has swung a little too far, as everybody is picking the Rams to win. However, the Rams, and more importantly Stafford, hasn't looked great coming into the playoffs either. Let's not forget that everybody thought so highly of Darnold after his amazing performance against the Packers. That was just two weeks ago. While they are the betting favourites, belief around the NFL world is that the Rams take this one. I'm not so sure. The Vikings have been the better team all season, and I think Darnold can redeem himself after his poor week last week. But it should be a high scoring affair, regardless of who wins.

Best Bet - Over 47.5
Lean - Vikings -2.5
Vikings 30 - Rams 27

Anytime TD Scorer 

Kyren Williams TD (-138)
You don't love to see minus odds for a TD scorer, however, Kyren's number is usually in the -200 range, so getting him at a decent playable price seems like a treat. Kyren has scored six TDs over his previous six games, and was third in the league with 14 on the season. While the Vikings have a good rush defence, they are allowing .83 TDs per game to the position. Oh, and he also found the end zone when they played earlier this season.

TJ Hockenson TD (+175)
Hey, if the Rams can allow Trey McBride to find the end zone for the first time this season, they can do the same for Hockenson, right? He has yet to scored a TD this season, but if we're expecting him to have a big game, he should see plenty of opportunity to find the end zone. As mentioned, the Rams struggle against TEs, and have allow the eighth most TDs to the position this season and three TDs over the past two games to TEs.

First TD

Kyren Williams First TD (+450)
After a week off, the Rams should come out hot in this matchup. And Kyren has scored the first TD in all five of the games where the Rams have scored first this season.

Parlay 1: +210 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 2+ Receptions

Justin Jefferson 6+ Receptions

TJ Hockenson 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: +130 odds on bet365

Matthew Stafford 20+ Completions

Kyren Williams 2+ Receptions

Puka Nacua 7+ Receptions

Parlay 3: +800 odds on bet365

Minnesota Vikings -2.5

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions

TJ Hockenson 60+ Receiving Yards

QB Bo Nix
Bo Nix enters this matchup riding a hot streak, completing 70% of his passes over his last three games while averaging 268 passing yards and recording multiple touchdowns in each contest. His ability to deliver consistently through the air will be critical if the Denver Broncos hope to keep pace with the high-powered Buffalo Bills. The Bills' defense presents a mixed challenge for Nix. While their pass rush is one of the best in the league, ranked sixth by Pro Football Focus, their coverage unit has been a glaring weakness, sitting at 31st. This disparity has contributed to Buffalo allowing the 10th most passing yards per game (241.2) and the eighth most passing touchdowns (1.65) this season. However, they are opportunistic, forcing the seventh-most interceptions per game (0.94), which could challenge Nix's decision-making under pressure. With Denver's run game struggling to gain traction for most of the season, the Broncos will likely lean heavily on Nix to carry the offense. This is especially true given Buffalo's explosive offense, which is capable of putting up points in bunches. If Denver hopes to stay competitive, Nix will need to attack Buffalo's vulnerable secondary while navigating their strong pass rush and limiting costly turnovers. This game could come down to Nix’s ability to sustain drives and capitalize on scoring opportunities through the air.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 223.5 Passing Yards -110
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions -145

RB Jaleel McLaughlin
Jaleel McLaughlin has emerged as the lead rusher in Denver's backfield, seemingly overtaking Javonte Williams in recent weeks. Over the past two games, McLaughlin has out-carried Williams 26 to 5, while also securing double-digit touches in each of his last four appearances. Estime has seen some involvement, but it’s typically in injury relief or garbage time. McLaughlin’s explosiveness has been evident, as he leads the team in rushing success rate (39.5%) and explosive run rate (14.2%), making him the most dynamic option in the Broncos' backfield. The matchup against Buffalo presents a mixed bag. The Bills’ run defense has declined from its early-season form, ranking 27th overall. However, they’ve allowed just the 16th-most rushing yards per game to running backs and the 14th-highest yards per carry (4.5). Additionally, Buffalo has been stout near the goal line, surrendering the 11th-fewest rushing touchdowns per game (0.59). These metrics suggest that while the Bills’ run defense can be exploited between the 20s, finding the end zone on the ground may prove more difficult. While McLaughlin is the clear frontrunner in Denver’s backfield, his role is still not entirely secure, and the overall inconsistency of the Broncos’ offense makes him a risky bet. There are likely safer and more enticing angles to explore in this matchup. Betting on McLaughlin to lead the backfield may make sense, but trusting him for significant production comes with inherent uncertainty, especially in what is likely a negative game flow.

Suggested Picks
PASS

RB Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams has seen his rushing role diminish in favor of Jaleel McLaughlin, but he remains the Broncos’ preferred option in passing situations. Over the past two weeks, Williams has played 38 passing snaps compared to McLaughlin’s 17, including eight pass-blocking opportunities and five receptions for 50 yards. McLaughlin, in contrast, has only two pass-blocking snaps and four receptions for 16 yards during the same period. This clearly highlights the coaching staff’s trust in Williams as both a receiver and a pass protector. This role could be significant against Buffalo, as their defense has struggled to contain running backs in the passing game. The Bills allow the most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (44.1) and the second-most receptions (5.41). With Denver likely facing a negative game script, Williams’ involvement as a pass-catching back could be a valuable angle to exploit. While his upside as a rusher appears limited, Williams has a clear path to production through the air, making him a potentially interesting option in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions +110

WR Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton enters this matchup against the Buffalo Bills in top form, solidifying his role as the focal point of Denver's passing attack. Sutton has been remarkably consistent throughout the season, tallying 81 receptions on 135 targets for 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns. His late-season surge has been especially impressive, with five or more catches in nine of his last ten games. As the clear alpha in the Broncos’ offense, Sutton commands a league-leading 48.6% of the team's air yards and an elite 26.5% target share. Additionally, his 31.8% red-zone target share underscores his role as Russell Wilson's go-to option near the goal line. The Bills' defense presents a middling challenge for opposing wide receivers. They rank 16th in receiving yards allowed per game (148.2), 11th in receptions (12.4), and 20th in touchdowns (0.94) to the position. While Buffalo has done a solid job limiting production from outside receivers—where Sutton predominantly lines up—Denver’s anticipated pass-heavy game script provides an ideal scenario for Sutton to thrive. Given his immense usage and the potential for Denver to play from behind, Sutton is well-positioned to deliver another strong performance. Unless Wilson falters significantly, Sutton remains a safe and high-upside option in this spot.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 61.5 Receiving Yards -110
Anytime Touchdown +155

WR Marvin Mims
Marvin Mims has emerged as a dynamic playmaker for the Denver Broncos over the past three weeks, becoming a more integral part of their offensive attack. With at least five targets in each of those games, Mims has delivered yardage totals of 62, 103, and 51, showcasing his consistency and explosiveness. He has also found the end zone twice in each of his last two games, cementing his role as a scoring threat. The matchup against Buffalo is intriguing, as the Bills have shown they can be effective against outside wide receivers. However, Mims' versatility and ability to make plays in a variety of ways make him a compelling option. Denver has been creative in getting the ball into his hands, whether through deep shots, routes across the middle, or screen plays. His increasing involvement is evident in his route participation, running routes on 46% of the team's total dropbacks. Importantly, the Broncos are manufacturing touches for him, with many of his opportunities coming at or behind the line of scrimmage in the screen game. This usage pattern should provide Mims with a solid chance to rack up receptions, making him a high-upside option despite Buffalo's defensive prowess.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -145

TE Adam Trautman/Lucas Krull
These two TE’s have hardly been involved the last couple of weeks. Both had zero targets last week vs KC. The week before that, each had a single catch for 5 and 3 yards. Trautman is on the field more than Krull primarily as a blocker, but Krull is the better pass catcher. Buffalo allows the 13th fewest receiving yards per game to opposing TE’s this season, but 12th most receptions. I’ll avoid both of these guys.

Suggested Picks
PASS

QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen faces a formidable challenge against the Denver Broncos' defense, but his dual-threat abilities make him a unique weapon for the Buffalo Bills. Allen has been stellar this season, averaging 219.5 passing yards and 1.65 passing touchdowns per game with a strong 101.4 passer rating. Additionally, his mobility has been a significant asset, with 531 rushing yards and an impressive 12 rushing touchdowns. His ability to extend plays with his legs adds another layer of complexity for opposing defenses. Denver’s defense, however, is no pushover. They rank fifth in pass rush and sixth in coverage according to Pro Football Focus, excelling in both pressuring quarterbacks and limiting aerial attacks. Their heavy reliance on man coverage (7th most in the league at 32.8%) and aggressive blitzing (3rd at 34.1%) presents a unique test for Allen. While Allen has shown some struggles against man coverage this season, his proficiency under pressure could mitigate Denver's blitz-heavy approach. The Broncos are allowing the 11th most passing yards per game (239.9), but they’ve been stingy in the red zone, giving up the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns per game (1.29). Allen's track record in opening playoff games should give Buffalo confidence. The Bills have scored 27 or more points in their last four postseason openers, and Allen has consistently used his mobility to exploit defenses in these matchups. Last season, he tallied 72 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City and 74 rushing yards with another touchdown against Pittsburgh. Given Denver's propensity for man coverage and their strong pass defense, Allen's legs could once again be a critical factor, creating opportunities when passing lanes close. Expect Buffalo to lean on Allen's dual-threat capabilities to counteract Denver's defensive strengths.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +100
‘O’ 39.5 Rushing Yards -115

RB James Cook
James Cook has been a volatile option in recent weeks, with inconsistent production and workload. Over his last seven games, he has logged fewer than 16 carries in each outing. While he has showcased his upside with three games over 100 rushing yards in his last six, he has also been held under 60 yards in three of his last five contests. This inconsistency makes him a boom-or-bust option heading into Week 10. Unfortunately for Cook, the matchup against the Denver Broncos is daunting. Denver ranks 11th in run defense per Pro Football Focus and has been one of the league's stingiest teams against the run. They allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (78.2), the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns per game (0.41), and the second-lowest yards per carry (3.9). These metrics suggest Cook will face a tough challenge on the ground. However, there is a potential silver lining for Cook as a pass-catcher. Denver has been more vulnerable to running backs in the passing game, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards and seventh-most receptions to the position this season. While Cook’s usage as a receiver has been inconsistent, this could be an area where the Bills exploit the Broncos’ defense. If Buffalo incorporates him more into the passing game, Cook could salvage his day with receiving production, even if rushing yards are hard to come by.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 58.5 Rushing Yards -120

WR Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper has been a puzzling figure in recent weeks, struggling to make a consistent impact despite his undeniable talent. While he flashed his potential with a big performance against the Rams earlier this season, his production has dwindled in the second half of the campaign. Over his last seven games, Cooper has been limited to three or fewer receptions in six of them and has failed to eclipse 60 receiving yards in those same contests. Compounding matters, his opportunities have been scarce, with three or fewer targets in six of his last seven outings. The matchup against Denver doesn't offer much relief. While the Broncos are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (241.9), their defensive efficiency metrics against the pass—ranking 27th in yards per target (7.33) and 25th in yards per reception (10.46)—suggest they limit big plays. To make matters tougher, Cooper is expected to line up frequently against Patrick Surtain II, one of the league's premier cornerbacks, who has a reputation for neutralizing top wideouts. Given Cooper's recent lack of involvement and the daunting individual matchup, trusting him in this spot is challenging. However, the low betting line of 23.5 receiving yards presents a tempting dilemma. Despite his struggles, Cooper’s talent and the possibility of a couple of schemed opportunities make it difficult to completely dismiss his potential to exceed such a modest threshold. While the matchup and recent form temper expectations, Cooper’s line remains intriguing for those willing to bank on a small rebound.

Suggested Picks

PASS

WR Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir finds himself in a highly favorable matchup against the Denver Broncos, particularly given his role as Buffalo's primary slot receiver. Shakir runs 72.9% of his routes from the slot, and Denver has struggled to defend this area of the field, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards to slot receivers this season. Additionally, Denver’s defensive tendencies play right into Shakir’s strengths. The Broncos blitz at the third-highest rate in the league, and Shakir has been highly effective against the blitz, boasting a 36% target share per route run (TPRR) and an elite 3.67 yards per route run (YPRR) when facing extra pressure.

Across all coverages, Shakir’s efficiency remains strong, with a 29% TPRR and 2.14 YPRR, highlighting his reliability as Josh Allen’s go-to option in the passing game. This increased trust has been reflected in his workload, with Shakir seeing six or more targets in each of his last 10 games and securing five or more receptions in seven of them. Given his consistent usage and Denver’s vulnerabilities in defending slot receivers, Shakir’s reception line is an attractive betting opportunity. While five receptions may serve as a solid parlay piece, the potential value in taking over 5.5 receptions at plus money is worth considering, given his role and the matchup dynamics.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 5.5 Receptions +120

TE Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid has struggled to meet expectations this season, making him a challenging option heading into the Bills' Week 1 playoff matchup against Denver. Over his last 13 games, Kincaid has failed to surpass 55 receiving yards, highlighting his lack of big-play production. Additionally, he's only managed to exceed five receptions in a game once during that span, further illustrating his limited involvement in Buffalo's offense. Even against Kansas City, which has been the most favorable matchup for tight ends this season, Kincaid stayed under his receiving yardage prop, raising doubts about his ability to capitalize on softer defensive matchups.

Denver presents an intriguing challenge for Kincaid. While the Broncos allow the ninth-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends, they limit yardage effectively, ranking 12th in fewest receiving yards allowed to the position. This trend suggests that tight ends are primarily used in check-down scenarios against Denver, with little opportunity for explosive plays. Given this dynamic, Kincaid could realistically tally 3-5 receptions, but his yardage is likely to remain below the set prop line.

Considering his recent form and Denver's defensive tendencies, it's hard to expect a breakout performance from Kincaid. His underwhelming season looks poised to continue, making him a risky proposition for bettors in this pivotal playoff matchup.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 37.5 Receiving Yards -110

This game has Buffalo all over it and it really comes down to if the DEN offense can keep pace. I have my worries they can’t and it feels like they’ll have to score 25+ to keep this game within reach. BUF has won each of their last 4 playoff openers and has scored 27+ points in each of them. Despite DEN’s strong defense, BUF should continue to put up numbers here. Nix and company have played really well of late, but rookie QB’s can come out flat in their first playoff game. Playing catchup with a high powered offense is never an easy task. I think we’ll see plenty of scoring in this game and 8.5 is past a key number, but I think Buffalo gets gets the win without too much of a sweat and look forward to playing a better offense next week.

Best Bet (BUF Bills -8.5)
Lean (‘O’ 47.5)
Bills 31, Broncos 20 

Anytime TD 

Josh Allen -125
Josh Allen loves to take over in big games. He’s scored on the ground in each of his last 3 playoffs games, including a 2 TD game vs KC. The Bills have mastered the tush push with Allen as well, so he’ll likely continue to work as the goal line back. In his last 5 regular season games, he has 6 rushing touchdowns. With a good DEN coverage unit, don’t be surprised for Allen to use his legs often.

Cortland Sutton +155
Sutton’s redzone usage has been too elite not to consider him for an ATD. He owns a 31.8% redzone target share, which is 5th best in the league. BUF is allowing a 6.9% touchdown rate to outside WR, which ranks 30th in the league. Nix has 2+ passing TD’s in seven of his last eight.

First TD

Josh Allen +600
It just makes sense to sprinkle on a first TD here too. BUF big favorites and DEN stout against the pass and the rush. As mentioned, Allen is also the goal line back. There’s also some nice insurance with the “Get Your Cash Back” promo on BetMGM, which currently holds the best odds.

Marvin Mims +2000
Mims has been excellent lately and has 6 touchdowns in his last 7 games. He’s used in a multitude of ways - as a deep threat, across the middle and in the screen game.His ability after the catch makes him extremely dangerous to take one to the endzone.

Builder Parlay (-103)
BUF Bills -2.5
Williams 2+ Receptions
Allen 25+ Rush Yards

Longshot Parlay #1 (+935)
BUF Bills -6.5
Williams 25+ Receiving Yards
Shakir over 5.5 Receptions

Longshot Parlay #2 (+1480)
BUF Bills -8.5
Total over 47.5
Cook under 55.5 Rush Yards
Nix over 1.5 Passing TD’s

QB Jordan Love
On the season, Love averages 225.9 passing yards per game, 7.97 YPA, 7.50 ANY/A and a QB rating of 96.7. He’ll get an extremely tough matchup against an Eagles pass defense that has been the best in the league since week 8. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (182.2), fewest YPA (5.66) and the lowest ANY/A (4.34). Since week 8, the Eagles have run zone 70.6% of the time (14^th highest) and single-high 52.8% of the time (16^th highest). Their top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29.9%), Cover 1 (22.7%) and Cover 4 (20.5%). Against these 3 coverages, Love averages 8.50 YPA, 7.79 ANY/A and a QB rating of 91.5, mostly positive splits from a scheme perspective. Jordan Love has been trending down as the season has gone on, partially due to their emphasis on the run game. Outside of the last game of the season where he only played a portion of the snaps, he’s averaging 215.2 passing yards per game last 5, compared to 237.1 on the season. He’s also only thrown 2+ passing TDs in 3 of his last 9 games, compared to 5-straight to start the season. Considering the Eagles strong rush defense and expected game script being 5-point underdogs, Jordan Love may be forced to pass more often. Jordan Love has also been one of the top deep ball throwers in the league this season, as he leads the league in passing yards per game 20+ yards down field (75.2). His number 1 deep threat Christian Watson is out for the season, so we’ll see if this has a negative impact in this department. The Eagles have the 2^nd best ANY/A against targets 20+ yards down field and allow only 34.9 passing yards per game on these targets (5^th lowest).

Suggested Pick
“U” 1.5 Pass TDs (-137)
“U” 217.5 Pass Yds (-110)

RB Josh Jacobs
Removing a meaningless week 18 game, Josh Jacobs is averaging 18.4 rush attempts per game and 80.3 rushing yards per game (6^th highest in the league). He averages 4.36 yards per carry and has rushed for 14 TDs. He’ll face an Eagles defense that leads the NFL in EPA/Rush and are 6^th in YPC allowed post week 5 bye. The Eagles have been especially tough against man/gap concept, allowing the 3^rd fewest YPC (3.40) and the 2^nd lowest success rate (37.9%). That compares to the 9^th fewest YPC (3.94) and the 4^th highest success rate (56.3%) allowed to zone concept. Jacobs has run in man/gap concept on 47.5% of his attempts and has been more efficient with a 56.6% success rate. That compares to only a 47.8% success rate in zone concepts. From a schematic perspective, this is also a bearish matchup for Josh. Looking at the receiving game, the Eagles have also been tough here, allowing the 9^th fewest receiving yards and fewest receiving TDs to RB on the season. Jacobs has picked it up in the receiving game as of late, averaging 30.8 receiving YPG last 5, compared to 21.3 YPG on the season. However, those include smash games as well as games with 0 receiving yards. Hard to trust him in that regard. In what is expected to be a losing game script and a tough matchup all around, hard to back Jacobs to have a good game.

Suggested Pick
“U” 17.5 Rush Att (-115)

WR Jayden Reed
Jayden Reed is averaging 50.4 receiving yards per game, 2.37 YPRR and 21% TPRR on the season. He has a 1^st-read rate of 19.9%, 2^nd on the team behind Romeo Doubs. Christian Watson is out for the season, so the other Packers receivers will need to pick up some volume. The Eagles pass defense has been the best in the league since week 8. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (182.2), fewest YPA (5.66) and the lowest ANY/A (4.34). They specifically allow the 2^nd fewest receiving yards to WR on the season. Since week 8, the Eagles have run zone 70.6% of the time (14^th highest) and single-high 52.8% of the time (16^th highest). Their top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29.9%), Cover 1 (22.7%) and Cover 4 (20.5%). Against these 3 coverages, Jayden sees positive production splits on similar volume, averaging 2.60 YPRR and 20% TPRR and 18.9% 1^st-read rate. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Reed has lined up in the slot on 76.2% of his routes. The Eagles have allowed the 7^th highest target share but the 2^nd fewest YPRR to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“U” 3.5 Rec (+100)

WR Romeo Doubs
Romeo Doubs averages 46.2 receiving yards per game, 1.90 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He leads the Packers in 1^st-read rate at 23.6%, but overall, it’s been a balanced offensive attack. Christian Watson is out for the season, so the other Packers receivers will need to pick up some volume. The Eagles pass defense has been the best in the league since week 8. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (182.2), fewest YPA (5.66) and the lowest ANY/A (4.34). They specifically allow the 2^nd fewest receiving yards to WR on the season. Since week 8, the Eagles have run zone 70.6% of the time (14^th highest) and single-high 52.8% of the time (16^th highest). Their top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29.9%), Cover 1 (22.7%) and Cover 4 (20.5%). Against these 3 coverages, Doubs sees positive splits averaging 2.09 YPRR, 24% TPRR and 26.1% 1^st-read rate. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Doubs has lined up out wide on 87% of his routes. The Eagles have allowed the 9^th lowest target share and the 2^nd fewest YPRR to wide alignment.

Suggested Pick
“O” 46.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Dontayvion Wicks
Wicks averages 24.4 receiving yards per game, 1.67 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 18.4%. He has not always had consistent playing time this season, but in the 2 games Christian Watson has been out, he has had a 76% and 73% snap share. The Eagles pass defense has been the best in the league since week 8. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (182.2), fewest YPA (5.66) and the lowest ANY/A (4.34). They specifically allow the 2^nd fewest receiving yards to WR on the season. Since week 8, the Eagles have run zone 70.6% of the time (14^th highest) and single-high 52.8% of the time (16^th highest). Their top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29.9%), Cover 1 (22.7%) and Cover 4 (20.5%). Against these 3 coverages, Wicks sees mixed splits as he averages 1.77 YPRR, 29% TPRR and 17.2% 1^st-read rate. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Wicks has lined up out wide on 66.3% of his routes and in the slot on 32.5% of his routes. The Eagles have allowed the 9^th lowest target share and the 2^nd fewest YPRR to wide alignment. They have allowed the 7^th highest target share but the 2^nd fewest YPRR to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“U” 39.5 Rec Yds (-110)

TE Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft is averaging 41.6 receiving yards per game, 1.90 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 13%. With Christian Watson out for the season, Tucker may see added volume in the passing game. The Eagles pass defense has been the best in the league since week 8. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (182.2), fewest YPA (5.66) and the lowest ANY/A (4.34). They specifically allow the fewest receiving yards to TE on the season. Since week 8, the Eagles have run zone 70.6% of the time (14^th highest) and single-high 52.8% of the time (16^th highest). Their top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29.9%), Cover 1 (22.7%) and Cover 4 (20.5%). Against these 3 coverages, Kraft sees slightly negative splits averaging 1.88 YPRR, 15% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 12.3%. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Kraft has lined up inline on 54.7% of his routes and in the slot on 33% of his routes. The Eagles have allowed the 9^th lowest target share and the 2^nd fewest YPRR to inline. They have allowed the 7^th highest target share but the 2^nd fewest YPRR to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 35.5 Rec Yds (-115)

QB Jalen Hurts
Amongst qualifying QBs, Jalen Hurts is 4^th in Yards per Attempt (8.04), 2^nd in completion percentage over expected (6.1%) and 5^th in QB rating (103.7). Outside of week 18 where he barely played, Hurts is averaging 206.6 passing yards per game. He will have his top 3 weapons available for the first time since week 11 (Brown, Smith, Goedert). He’s averaging 241.3 passing yards per game and 1.5 passing TDs per game with all 3 healthy. Looking at the matchup, the Packers have the 3^rd lowest EPA/Pass play allowed, behind only the Eagles and Broncos. Despite the elite advanced statistics, they ranked 17^th in passing yards allowed and 11^th in passing TDs allowed. They are also without their top corner Jaire Alexander. He’s a huge reason for this defense’s success, as they allow a 77.5 passer rating with him on the field compared to 95.3 without him on the field. I expect Hurts, with all his weapons available, to be able to exploit this defense. On the season, the Packers have run zone coverage 78.3% of the time, 2^nd highest frequency in the NFL. However, when these 2 teams matched up week 1, the Packers leaned heavier into man, as they ran it 28.2% of the time, which is right around league average. They also ran single-high 59% of the time in their matchup compared to only 50.9% for the season. They have leaned further into zone coverage as the season has gone on so I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the week 1 matchup. Against zone coverage, Hurts averages 7.83 YPA, a 94.7 QB rating and a 7.2% completion percentage over expected.

Suggested Pick
“O” 212.5 Pass Yds (-113)
Anytime TD (-115)

RB Saquon Barkley
Saquon has been the best RB in the NFL this season as he is finally playing behind an elite offensive line. He’s averaging 125.3 rushing yards per game on 5.81 YPC. He’s also averaging 17.4 receiving yards per game. Saquon has 15 total TDs on the season, and that number could be much larger if Jalen didn’t vulture TDs with the tush push. The Eagles are 2^nd in rush rate over expected, but the Packers present a tough matchup. Since week 10, they are allowing the 3^rd fewest rushing yards per game (84) and the 2^nd fewest YPC (3.61). On the season, they are however susceptible to the passing game to RBs, as they allow the 4^th most receiving yards and most receptions to the position. Turning back to the running game, the Packers have been especially tough against zone concept runs. Since week 10, they allow the fewest YPC (2.52) and the 2^nd lowest success rate (35.2%). That compares to the 9^th most YPC (4.80) and the 10^th lowest success rate against man/gap concept (47.1%). 54.2% of Saquon’s rush attempts have been in zone concept, where the Packers have been elite defensively. He averages 5.48 YPC and a 51.3% success rate in zone concept, compared to 6.35 YPC and a 54.3% success rate in man/gap concept. Saquon is capable of smashing against anyone, but this is not a particularly strong matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 12.5 Rec Yds (-110)
25+ Rec Yds (+280)

WR AJ Brown
AJ Brown is averaging 83 receiving yards per game, 3.22 YPRR, and a 29% TPRR. He has an elite 1^st-read rate of 42.1%, the highest in the NFL. He will take on the Packers, who, on the season, allow the 5^th fewest receiving yards and 7^th fewest receiving TDs to WR. However, they will be without their star corner, Jaire Alexander. With Jaire on the field, the Packers allow a 61% completion rate and a 77.5 passer rating. That compares to a 70.7% completion rate, and a 95.3 passer rating without him on the field, massive splits. AJ Brown has lined up out wide on 81.2% of his routes. The Packers have allowed the 3^rd lowest target share (36.1%) and the 10^th lowest YPRR (1.82) to wide alignment. This may change a bit as Jaire is primarily a wide aligned CB, with 88.3% of his snaps coming out wide. On the season, the Packers have run zone coverage 78.3% of the time, 2^nd highest frequency in the NFL. When these 2 teams matched up week 1, the Packers did play their lowest rate of zone on the season (69.2%), but they have progressively leaned further into zone as the season went on, so I’d still expect a higher zone rate than league average. AJ Brown sees negative splits against zone coverage, averaging 2.6 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 34.2%. AJ has been the #1 deep threat for Jalen Hurts, but this may be a tough matchup as the Packers force the lowest ANY/A and the 2^nd fewest yards per game allowed on passes 20+ yards down field. Again, Jaire’s absence could have a negative effect on this elite pass defense.

Suggested Pick
“U” 5.5 Rec (-110)

WR DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith is averaging 64.1 receiving yards per game, 2.29 YPRR and 23% TPRR. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 33.8%. He will take on the Packers, who, on the season, allow the 5^th fewest receiving yards and 7^th fewest receiving TDs to WR. However, they will be without their star corner, Jaire Alexander. With Jaire on the field, the Packers allow a 61% completion rate and a 77.5 passer rating. That compares to a 70.7% completion rate, and a 95.3 passer rating without him on the field, massive splits. DeVonta Smith has lined up in the slot on 56.3% of his routes, highest on the Eagles. The Packers have allowed the 8^th highest target share (34.2%) but the 7^th lowest YPRR to the slot (1.73). On the season, the Packers have run zone coverage 78.3% of the time, 2^nd highest frequency in the NFL. When these 2 teams matched up week 1, the Packers did play their lowest rate of zone on the season (69.2%), but they have progressively leaned further into zone as the season went on, so I’d still expect a higher zone rate than league average. DeVonta sees positive production splits on less volume against zone coverage, averaging 2.53 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 32.5%.

Suggested Pick
“O” 61.5 Rec Yds (-110)

TE Dallas Goedert
Goedert is averaging 49.6 receiving yards per game, 2.37 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 22.4%. He will take on the Packers, who, on the season, allow the 7^th most receiving yards but the 9^th fewest receiving TDs to TE. However, they will be without their star corner, Jaire Alexander, which should take a hit to the entire pass defense. With Jaire on the field, the Packers allow a 61% completion rate and a 77.5 passer rating. That compares to a 70.7% completion rate, and a 95.3 passer rating without him on the field, massive splits. Goedert has lined up in the slot on 45.5% of his routes and inline on 39.2% of his routes. The Packers have allowed the 8^th highest target share (34.2%) but the 7^th lowest YPRR to the slot (1.73). They have allowed the 6^th lowest target share (10.3%) but the 4^th most YPRR to inline (2.13). On the season, the Packers have run zone coverage 78.3% of the time, 2^nd highest frequency in the NFL. When these 2 teams matched up week 1, the Packers did play their lowest rate of zone on the season (69.2%), but they have progressively leaned further into zone as the season went on, so I’d still expect a higher zone rate than league average. Goedert’s splits are mixed against zone, averaging 2.27 YPRR, 25% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 25.2%.

Suggested Pick
“O” 36.5 Rec Yds (-110)
“O” 3.5 Rec (-130)

The Eagles won their week 1 matchup 34-29, but I’m expecting a lower scoring affair on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field. Both offenses have been one of the most run heavy in the NFL, ranking 2 and 3 in run rate over expected. Both defenses are strong against the run, so Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley may be held in check, to their standards. The Eagles arguably have had the best defense overall this season, as they have ranked number 1 in multiple statistics defending the pass.

Best Bet (Under 45.5)
Lean (Eagles -4.5)
Eagles 24 Packers 17

Anytime Touchdown: 

Best Pick: (PHI) Jalen Hurts -110
Has hit in 71% of games this season outside of week 18 and in 4 straight at home. All it takes is one time to be on the 1-yard line and the Eagles more than likely run the tush push. Almost a cheat code at this point!

Longshot: (PHI) Dallas Goedert +350
Dallas has only scored twice this season, but I like the value here as he’s seen 7 redzone targets in the last 4 weeks, outside of week 18. With Jaire Alexander out on the outside, I think the Packers shade heavier towards AJ Brown and I’d expect more opportunities for Goedert as a result.

1st Touchdown 

Best Pick: (PHI) Jalen Hurts +650
The Eagles are 4.5-point favorites and if the Eagles end up on the 1-yard line early, they will 100% go to the tush push. Same analysis as anytime TD as I think he offers the best odds to score, so I’ll take him to score first as well.

Longshot: (GB) Romeo Doubs +1400
If the Packers are to score first, I like Doubs chances the best without Watson as he had 2 redzone targets last week without him. Wicks had 1 and Reed had 0. Despite being elite against the pass, the Eagles are middle of the pack in TDs allowed to WR.

Parlay #1: (+456)

Jalen Hurts Anytime TD

Jalen Hurts “O” 212.5 Pass Yds

Saquon Barkley “O” 12.5 Rec Yds

Parlay #2: (+586)

Jordan Love “U” 1.5 Pass TDs

Romeo Doubs “O” 46.5 Rec Yds

Tucker Kraft “O” 35.5 Rec Yds

Parlay #3: Longshot (+2188)

Saquon Barkley 25+ Rec Yds

Jalen Hurts Anytime TD

DeVonta Smith “O” 60.5 Rec Yds

Romeo Doubs “O” 46.5 Rec Yds

QB Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels capped off an exceptional rookie season, completing 69% of his passes (6th in the league) for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. His efficiency as a passer ranked well, with 7.4 yards per attempt (14th). On the ground, Daniels showcased his dual-threat ability, rushing for 891 yards and 5 touchdowns, making him a dynamic weapon in both the passing and running game.Daniels has been a consistent threat on the ground, averaging 54 rushing yards per game since Week 10 and leading the league with a 10.5% scramble rate during that span. In Week 1 against the Buccaneers, Daniels’ rushing ability was on full display. He rushed 16 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. His passing output in that game was modest, but his legs carried the load in his NFL debut. Daniels improved throughout the season when facing pressure. In Week 1, he struggled against the blitz, completing just 4-of-8 passes for 37 yards (4.6 YPA) while scrambling five times for 53 yards. However, over the rest of the season, Daniels adjusted effectively, posting 8.6 Y/A against the blitz (10th in the league). He also became more aggressive as the season progressed. In Week 1, only 12.5% of his passes traveled 10 or more yards downfield—the lowest rate of his season. From Week 2 onward, 36.2% of his passes went 10 or more yards downfield, ranking 11th in the league in that category. The Buccaneers' defense has been strong recently, allowing just 6.4 Y/A (4th) and a 2.8% touchdown rate (2nd) over their past seven games. While some of this success can be attributed to facing inexperienced or struggling quarterbacks (e.g., Tommy DeVito, Aidan O’Connell, and Spencer Rattler), the Bucs also held Justin Herbert to 195 yards and Bryce Young under 7.3 YPA in two separate matchups. They haven’t allowed more than two passing touchdowns in a game since Week 9. Daniels will likely need to lean on his rushing ability again to elevate his performance against a disciplined Tampa Bay secondary, particularly if they continue to pressure him with their aggressive blitz schemes. His ability to adjust to the Bucs' defensive strategies and stretch the field with his improved deep passing will be key in this rematch.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 21.5 Pass Completions (-115)

RB Brian Robinson
Brian Robinson's production tapered off in the latter half of the season after a strong start. Over his past eight games, Robinson has rushed for 403 yards on 102 carries, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. This marks a noticeable decline from the six rushing touchdowns he scored in the season's opening six games, with just two scores in his most recent eight outings. One concerning trend is Robinson’s efficiency. Over this stretch, 21.6% of his runs failed to gain yardage, a rate significantly higher than the league average for running backs (17%) during the same span. While Robinson has shown flashes of being a reliable runner, his recent performances have leaned more on volume than explosive production. As a road underdog, Robinson’s upside is limited unless he finds the end zone on a short-yardage opportunity. Without that scoring boost, his contributions may be muted, as he hasn't demonstrated consistent success in overcoming the challenges posed by tough game scripts and defensive pressure.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 12.5 Yard Longest Rush (-120)

WR Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin thrived this season thanks to improved quarterback play, delivering one of the most productive campaigns of his career. McLaurin totaled 82 receptions for 1,096 yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns, despite seeing just 117 targets—his fewest since his rookie year. His efficiency also stood out, with a career-best 70.1% catch rate. While McLaurin's production was impressive, there were some underlying issues with his usage. Washington often left him in an isolated role, limiting creative opportunities to get him open. He played 681 snaps at left wide receiver (LWR), compared to just 95 at right wide receiver (RWR) and 154 in the slot. This predictability allowed opposing defenses to focus on him, particularly in key matchups. When Washington faced Tampa Bay in Week 1, McLaurin caught just 2-of-4 targets for 17 yards. While rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels missed him on a potential walk-in touchdown, the game highlighted broader concerns. McLaurin spent nearly all his snaps lined up at LWR, allowing Tampa Bay to match him with their top cornerback, Jamel Dean, for almost the entire game. Even after Tampa Bay lost three cornerbacks to injury in the first half, Washington failed to adjust their approach, leaving McLaurin underutilized in a favorable situation. Looking ahead to Sunday night, McLaurin could be in line for a better performance, especially if Dean—who is dealing with injuries to both knees—is unable to play. However, Washington’s ability to maximize McLaurin’s talent will depend on the coaching staff’s willingness to move him around and create mismatches, rather than leaving him in a predictable role that opposing defenses can exploit.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-145)

WR Olamide Zaccheus
Olamide Zaccheaus has emerged as Washington’s most reliable secondary option at wide receiver, logging 68.5% of the team’s dropbacks—more than Dyami Brown (47.2%), Jamison Crowder (43.8%), and Luke McCaffrey (21.3%). Zaccheaus has accounted for 19.7% of team targets during that span, a significant share compared to Brown (9.8%), Crowder (9.1%), and McCaffrey (3.0%) One of Zaccheaus’s advantages is his versatility, playing 45.2% of his snaps in the slot. This positioning makes him particularly valuable in the upcoming matchup against Tampa Bay, especially if Jamel Dean is active and tasked with shadowing Terry McLaurin. Tampa Bay has consistently pushed targets to the interior, allowing 9.0 yards per target to slot receivers (28th in the league) compared to just 7.1 yards per target to outside receivers (3rd). Zaccheaus could exploit this vulnerability if Washington schemes to attack the middle of the field. Another notable aspect of Zaccheaus’s role is his effectiveness against Cover 3 defenses, which Tampa Bay employs at the second-highest rate in the league (47.2%). Zaccheaus has been targeted on a team-high 24% of his routes against Cover 3, making him a potential key piece in Washington’s passing attack on Sunday. While Crowder has also been utilized in the slot, playing 87% of his snaps there, he doesn’t see as many routes as Zaccheaus. Meanwhile, Brown serves as Washington’s deep threat, with 71% of his snaps coming outside and a team-high 23.1% deep target rate during this stretch. Despite these complementary roles, Zaccheaus stands out as the most balanced and versatile option, capable of creating mismatches in key situations.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Zach Ertz
In his age-34 season, Zach Ertz had a solid year, catching 66 of his 91 targets for 654 yards and 7 touchdowns. He finished the season strong, and over his past seven full games, he has tied for the team lead in targets with 41, while also leading the team with 6 touchdowns. This makes him a valuable asset, especially on a short slate paired with a favorable matchup. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled against tight ends, particularly in the middle of the field. They rank 28th in receptions allowed to tight ends, giving up an average of 6.0 catches per game. Additionally, the Buccaneers allow 8.5 yards per target to tight ends, which is the 30th worst in the league. Although Tampa Bay has been effective at limiting tight end touchdowns, allowing a 3.7% touchdown rate (12th in the league), Ertz's ability to find the end zone over the past few games keeps him a strong option in this matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+255)

QB Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield enjoyed a career-best season, setting personal highs in completions (407), attempts (570), completion rate (71.4%), yards (4,500), and touchdowns (41). He also added a career-high 378 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, showcasing more versatility than in previous years. Mayfield's 49.4% success rate and 0.17 EPA per dropback were the highest of his career, reflecting his growth as a quarterback. Under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, Mayfield thrived in a short passing game designed to get the ball out quickly. His average depth of target dropped from 8.6 air yards in 2023 (under Dave Canales) to 7.0 air yards this season, while his average time to throw fell to 2.62 seconds—the fastest since his rookie year. This quicker decision-making translated to significant efficiency when he released the ball in under 2.5 seconds. On those throws, Mayfield completed 77.8% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. However, when holding the ball longer, his completion rate dipped to 63%, and he threw 14 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, underscoring the importance of his ability to execute a quick passing attack. In the Week 1 matchup against Washington, Mayfield executed this game plan to perfection. He averaged 2.37 seconds per throw, completing 18-of-21 passes for 8.9 Y/A and 4 touchdowns when throwing within 2.5 seconds. Washington's defense struggled against quarterbacks employing a quick release all season, allowing a league-high 7.7% touchdown rate and 6.7 Y/A (20th) on throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap. Conversely, when quarterbacks held the ball longer, Washington allowed just 1.4% touchdown rate (lowest in the league) and 7.6 Y/A (11th), showing their ability to adjust when given more time to react.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 21.5 Pass Completions (-128)

RB Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving led all rookie running backs with 1,122 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, establishing himself as one of the most efficient and explosive backs in the league during his debut season. His 5.4 yards per carry ranked fifth among all running backs with 100 or more carries, while his ability to break tackles and create yards after contact stood out as he led the league with 4.03 yards after contact per run. Irving also ranked fourth in EPA per rush (0.11) and posted a 43% success rate, which placed him ninth among his peers. He consistently delivered chunk plays, with 13.0% of his runs gaining 10 or more yards (10th) and only 14.0% of his runs failing to gain yardage, the sixth-best mark in the league. Additionally, 25.1% of his carries resulted in a first down or touchdown, showcasing his ability to move the chains and convert in key situations. Irving also demonstrated his value as a receiver, catching 47 of 52 targets for 392 yards, further solidifying his role as a dual-threat back who added versatility to the offense. Since the team’s Week 11 bye, he has firmly taken control of the backfield. In a must-win game in Week 18, Irving played a season-high 72% of the snaps and handled 91.3% (21 of 23) of the backfield touches, both career highs. Over his complete games since the bye, Irving has averaged 21.7 touches and 135.8 total yards per game, proving his consistency and reliability as a workhorse back. This week, Irving is in an excellent position against a Washington run defense that has struggled all season. Washington has allowed 4.9 yards per carry to running backs, ranking 30th in the league, and a 58.5% success rate against those runs. Opposing backs have averaged 2.02 yards before contact against Washington, the second-worst mark in the NFL. These deficiencies align perfectly with Irving’s strengths, making him a significant threat to capitalize on this favorable matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 17.5 Longest Rush (-114)
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (-145)

WR Mike Evans
Throughout the season, Evans had 27.3% of the team’s red-zone targets and 47.4% of their end-zone targets. Despite missing some time, he had 18 end-zone targets, which was tied for second in the league, behind Ja'Marr Chase. In his season opener against Washington, Evans caught 5-of-6 targets for 61 yards and 2 touchdowns, playing alongside a healthy Chris Godwin. Washington plays a high rate of man coverage, ranking fifth in the league with a 34.7% man coverage rate. Evans has been targeted on 33.3% of his routes against man coverage, a significant increase from his 23.9% rate against zone coverage. Since Week 12, without Godwin available, his target rate against man coverage has spiked to 40.7%, and 26.1% against zone. A potential factor to monitor is the status of Marshon Lattimore, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury. If Lattimore is active, it could spark a renewed rivalry between him and Evans. In 13 career games with Lattimore on the field, Evans has caught 32-of-54 targets for 5,037 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, Lattimore has generally had the upper hand in their matchups, including in Week 6 when Evans was held to 2-of-6 targets for 34 yards. Evans has been targeted on only 15% of his routes with Lattimore covering him, and their encounters often come with unpredictable outcomes, including Evans' ejections in two of those games. Despite this, Evans has shown he’s capable of delivering explosive performances, making him a constant threat.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+105)

WR Jalen McMilan
Jalen McMillan has finished his rookie season strong after a slow start. Over the past five weeks, he has hauled in 24-of-31 targets for 316 yards and 7 touchdowns, showcasing impressive scoring ability. He has recorded at least five catches in each of his past four games, with a solid role on the field, having been on the field for 86% of the team’s dropbacks and receiving 19.4% of the team’s targets. These usage rates are strong for a rookie, especially considering his connection with a quarterback who threw 41 touchdown passes this season. McMillan made an early impression in Week 1 when these teams met, catching 1-of-3 targets for a 32-yard touchdown. He also had the opportunity to secure two other potential touchdowns, including a walk-in score set up on a wheel route. Though Mayfield's throw was slightly off, McMillan could have made the catch. As the season progressed, McMillan's role and productivity have expanded, and he has found ways to stay effective, particularly against man coverage. Over the past five games, he has been targeted on 28.6% of his routes against man coverage, compared to just 14.9% against zone coverage. If Washington continues to play aggressive man coverage, McMillan could see more opportunities, especially if Marshon Lattimore plays, as this might push more chances toward McMillan.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (+130)

TE Cade Otton
Cade Otton's status for this week is still up in the air as he has missed the past three games. He was limited in practice on Wednesday, but head coach Todd Bowles indicated that he is "trending in the right direction." Before his injury, Otton had been on the field for 90% of the dropbacks in recent games, although his production was modest, with stat lines of 1-30-0, 4-20-0, 3-70-0, and 2-24-0 since Mike Evans returned to the lineup. In Otton's absence, Payne Durham has stepped up, playing 70% of the dropbacks and catching 9-of-12 targets for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Devin Culp has played 22% of the dropbacks, catching 5-of-6 targets for 88 yards. As for the matchup, Washington has allowed 7.2 yards per target to tight ends, which ranks 16th in the league, but they have struggled to prevent touchdowns, allowing an 8.5% touchdown rate, the second-worst mark for tight ends. Otton's return could provide an additional opportunity, particularly if he is able to regain a significant snap share.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+300)

Both of these offenses have been humming this season, and seem to especially be finding their strides behind red hot QB play as we enter the postseason. Although I expect both offenses to have some success in this one, I am going to go with the rookie QB and the underdog here to pull this game out. I expect the Washington secondary to have just a little more juice than the Bucs secondary and the ability to create a key stop or turnover could very well be the difference maker in a shootout.

Best Bet: Commanders +3.5
Lean: ‘O’ 50.5
Commanders 31 Bucs 27

Anytime TD

(Bucs) Cade Otton +300
Washington has allowed 7.2 yards per target to tight ends, which ranks 16th in the league, but they have struggled to prevent touchdowns, allowing an 8.5% touchdown rate, the second-worst mark for tight ends. Otton's return could provide an additional opportunity, particularly if he is able to regain a significant snap share.

(Bucs) Mike Evans +105
Throughout the season, Evans had 27.3% of the team’s red-zone targets and 47.4% of their end-zone targets. Despite missing some time, he had 18 end-zone targets, which was tied for second in the league, behind Ja'Marr Chase. In his season opener against Washington, Evans caught 5-of-6 targets for 61 yards and 2 touchdowns, playing alongside a healthy Chris Godwin.

First TD

(Commanders) Brian Robinson Jr. +1100
Robinson's performance in Week 18 was underwhelming, as he posted his season-low numbers with just 5 carries for 10 yards, matching his lowest total from Week 12. Despite this, Robinson leads the team in both carries and rushing touchdowns heading into the Wild Card Weekend clash with a Buccaneers defense that allows a rushing touchdown once every 29.92 attempts, ranking 10th among the 14 playoff teams.

Parlay 1 +375

Baker Mayfield ‘O’ 22.5 Completions 

Jayden Daniels ‘O’ 21.5 Completions

Game Total ‘O’ 50

Parlay 2 +685

Mike Evans ATD

Zach Ertz ATD

Bucky Irving ATD

QB Justin Herbert
It's playoff time, baby. We've seen Herbert in the playoffs in just one game, and it was an amazing...first half, to say the least. This was the memorable game where the Chargers had a 27-0 lead with 25 seconds left in the first half. And that's when it all started to fall apart. Herbert ended the game with a decent 25/43 for 273 passing yards and one passing TD, adding 12 yards on the ground, but managed to score just three points in the second half and lost the game 31-30. However, heading into this playoffs, Herbert and the Chargers are playing great football, winning three straight games and face a Texans team who have limped into the playoffs, losing two of their last three. The Texans have had a great pass defence this season, allowing the fifth fewest completions (19.1), 15th fewest pass attempts (32.5) and the seventh fewest passing yards per game (220.5). Houston are dead middle of the pack in terms of zone coverage and man coverage, so there is no advantage to find there for Herbert. However, one area Herbert might find success is through the deep ball and in the end zone. The Texans have allowed 31 passing TDs, ranking as the third most in the NFL. Herbert has thrown for 2+ passing TDs in four straight games. This could be a result of how poor the Texans are against the deep ball, as they're allowing the third highest aDoT (9.2) and the second highest deep ball completion percentage (14.2%). Herbert has thrown for a 35+ yard pass in four of his previous six games. Given his recent performances and how good this Texans run defence is, if the Chargers are going to put up points against this Texans team, they'll likely need to lean on the arm of their QB.

Suggested Pick:
Justin Herbert o1.5 Passing TDs (+100)

RB JK Dobbins
Boy did this Chargers team miss Dobbins. Since his return, Dobbins has carried the load, recording 19 and 18 rush attempts, good for 76 and 63 rushing yards. And that's how Jim Harbaugh wants to play. Lean on the run game, especially in the playoffs. The Texans won't be an easy matchup for Dobbins, as they're allowing the 11th fewest rushing yards (86.2) to opposing RBs per game. Houston runs about even in terms of zone and man/gap run concept, but struggle much more against man/gap, averaging 4.55 yards per carry to 3.59 against zone concept. Which does line up well for Dobbins, as he performs much better against man/gap, averaging 4.95 yards per carry, while also facing that run scheme on 58.5% of his runs. Dobbins should be relied upon heavily in this matchup, one that Vegas thinks the Chargers win. In Chargers wins this season, Dobbins has logged 15+ rush attempts in six of nine games this season, averaging 16.2 per game. On the road this season, Dobbins has rushed 15+ times in five of seven games, landing on 14 in both games he missed, averaging 17.4 per game. And while Edwards is back healthy for this week, when it's the playoffs, they should be playing Dobbins his normal workload.

Suggested Pick:
JK Dobbins o14.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

WR Ladd McConkey
Our wee-little-Ladd has had himself quite the season, recording one yard shy of 1,150, filling in the slot role and all those targets that Keenan Allen left behind, which helped the Chargers make the playoffs. It took a while for McConkey to find his footing, but over the final seven weeks of the season, he has recorded 80+ receiving yards in six of those games, averaging 93.9 receiving yards per game on 45 receptions, adding three TDs over that span. The challenge will be the matchup against the Texans, who're allowing the eighth fewest receptions (11.1) but the 12th most receiving yards (151.1). With the Texans running exactly middle of the pack in terms of both man coverage and zone coverage, there is no advantage there to look into. However, performs much better against man coverage. He earns the highest target share (27.6%) against man, a higher yards after catch per reception (5.7), and a higher yards per route run (2.98). As mentioned, Ladd is the main slot receiver, running 70% of his routes from the slot and will often draw the Eric Murray matchup. Murray only played 25 snaps last week, but before that, wasn't targeted much, but has allowed a high catch rate, allowing 12 of his 14 targets to go for a reception. While the Texans are good against receivers, they do struggle with the deep ball against slot WRs. Houston allows the second highest aDoT (10.3), leading to them also allowed the second highest yards per reception (12.4) to slot WRs. What seems funny, is that McConkey has actually seen his aDoT decrease over the past five games, averaging just a 9.0 aDoT compared to 11.0 it was before through his first 11 games. But his longest reception has gone up, averaging 36.4 longest reception over his previous five games, logging a 27+ yard reception in four of those five games.

Suggested Pick:
Ladd McConkey o25.5 Longest Reception (-110)

WR Quentin Johnston
Quentin Johnston holds a questionable tag coming into this game, so we'll keep it light in terms of coverage in case he doesn't play. Johnston is coming off a career game, where he caught 13 of 14 targets for 186 receiving yards. Where did this come from? It was a massive performance from what looked to be one of the biggest busts from his draft class. This could be the start to the emergence of Johnston. The only problem with Johnston when looking at his splits is that, and not to sugar-coat anything, horrible against man coverage. He has caught just nine of his 27 targets for 94 receiving yards. Which, for a 6'3", 215-lb WR, you would expect him to excel as a jump ball, man coverage crushing WR. But that couldn't be further from the truth. Johnston lines up on the left side 62% of the time and will often draw the Kamari Lassiter matchup. Lassiter has been an outstanding rookie CB for the Texans, allowing just a 47.8% catch rate on 69 (nice) targets on the season. However, Joshua Palmer isn't slated to suit up in this matchup, meaning Johnston will rarely come off the field. And if last week was any indication of what's to come with his 14 targets and 93% catch rate, Johnston should be able to come down with four receptions. He has logged 5+ receptions in four of his previous five games, averaging 6.2 per game.

Suggested Pick:
Quentin Johnston o3.5 Receptions (-170)

TE Will Dissly
After what was a very strong middle of the season, Will Dissly has kind of returned to his pre-Chargers days. Since Week 13, Dissly has earned just 11 targets, turning that into nine receptions and 82 receiving yards, averaging 2.3 receptions and 20.5 receiving yards per game. And this matchup isn't any easier for Dissly, as the Texans have been one of the best teams against opposing TEs all season, allowing the seventh fewest receptions (4.3) and the eighth fewest receiving yards (41.7) per game to the position. Dissly lines up inline 52.3% of the time. And, surprise, surprise, the Texans again are one of the best teams against inline receivers, allowing the second lowest catch rate (67.4%) and the second fewest receiving yards per game (19.3). There's not much more thought process that needs to go into this as we have a struggling TE over the past month, in a really tough spot.

Suggested Pick:
Will Dissly u31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB CJ Stroud
As mentioned above, it was a struggle for this Texans team coming into the playoffs, and those struggles start and end with the play of Stroud. Outside of last week where he played just six snaps, Stroud had two of his previous three weeks where he finished with under 200 passing yards. In those three games, he averaged a 61% completion percentage, 186.7 passing yards, with three touchdowns and three interceptions. The Chargers have been an overall great pass defence, allowing the 16th-fewest pass completions (21.5), the 15th-most pass attempts (33.2) and the eighth fewest passing yards (221.1). Los Angeles runs zone coverage at the fourth highest rate (77.7%) in the NFL. It's a bit of a mixed bag for Stroud when comparing his play against both coverages. He has a higher completion percentage (65.9%), but that's about it. He has a higher yards per attempt (7.59), quarterback rating (93.8) and aDoT (9.3). Also, his TD/INT ratio is a massive difference, having seven TDs and two INTs against man, but a very disappointing four TDs to 10 INTs against zone. But Stroud proved last season that he can be a playoff performer. When everybody was doubting him and the Texans last season against the Browns, he went 16/21 for 274 passing yards, three TDs and zero INTs and put up 45 points. However, the script was much different for this season as the Texans looked great coming into the playoffs last season, but really dragged themselves in this season. For this reason, we should see the Texans needing to throw the ball to try and compete in this game, and while he might not get there because his receiving weapons are depleted, Stroud will be using his arm much more in this matchup. When Stroud throws for 34+ pass attempts in a game, the Texans have won six of those nine games. But when the Texans lose, Stroud has thrown 34+ pass attempts in just one game. The team should realize this and rely on the arm of Stroud.

Suggested Pick:
CJ Stroud o33.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

RB Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon has had a solid year for this Texans team. He sits 15th in the league in rushing yards, hitting 1,000 yards on the ground for the fifth time in his career, despite missing three games. He should have relatively fresh legs as he's had just 15 carries over his previous two games. And he's going to need to come up huge for the Texans as they are hurting for offensive talent. But it won't be easy for him, as the Chargers allow the 15th fewest rushing yards (92.7) to RBs this season. Los Angeles runs majority zone concept run defence and allow 4.46 yards per carry, which is a lot better than their 4.76 against man/gap. This isn't great for Mixon as he sees his numbers drastically improve against man/gap, as he averages 3.71 yards per carry against zone and 5.05 against zone. However, where the Chargers can be exploited is through the air. The Chargers are targeted at the highest rate in the NFL against opposing RBs, turning that into allowing the fifth most receptions (5.0) but the 11th fewest receiving yards (28.3) to RBs. While the team does often use Dare Ogunbowale in the passing game, Mixon still leads the running back room in terms of targets (48), receptions (36) and receiving yards (309). Last week, where he played just 18% of the snaps, Mixon still managed to catch his only target. In games where Mixon has played 50% of his snaps, he's recorded four or more receptions in three of his previous four on 20 targets. And in a game where the Texans are hurting for offensive talent, they might need to use Mixon more than usual in the passing game.

Suggested Pick:
Joe Mixon o3.5 Receptions (+135)

WR Nico Collins
Had Collins not gotten hurt, there's a strong possibility we're talking about Collins leading the entire NFL in receiving yards this season. He ended up finishing with over 1,000 receiving yards, despite missing five games –– six if you include last week, when he played just 18% of the snaps. Collins is going to need to step up in a big way, considering the Texans lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell for the rest of the season with serious knee injuries. However, it won't be easy for him as the Chargers allow the 10th fewest receptions (11.2) and the 15th fewest receiving yards (147.4) per game to opposing WRs. Collins excels against man coverage, which hurts considering the Chargers run the fourth most zone coverage. However, he's still solid against zone. He earns a whopping 26.6% target share in the coverage, leading the Texans but has a better yards per receptions, yards after catch per reception, yards per route run and aDoT against man coverage. Collins runs most of his routes from the left side, and will often draw the Deane Leonard matchup. Leonard is not a regular starter. He has played just 71 snaps on the season, so it's hard to accurately his play this season. In the two games without both Diggs and Dell, teams can focus more on Collins, using double teams to completely eliminate him from the game. While that isn't going to stop Stroud from throwing him the ball, it's going to be hard for him to catch seven balls. He has eight receptions in two games without both WRs, and has only recorded 7+ receptions in four of his 12 games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Nico Collins u6.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Diontae Johnson
Look, it was tough to try and find a second WR for this Texans team to dive into, but in a game where the Texans should be desperate for playmakers, Diontae Johnson is their best shot at making an impact, despite being with the team for just three weeks. However, Johnson was given plenty of opportunity last week to play in this offence –– even though it was with backups –– as he played 37% of the snaps, catching two of his four targets for 12 receiving yards. On the season, Johnson has caught 17 of his 30 targets for 181 receiving yards and one TD against zone coverage. Last week, Johnson ran 72.2% of his routes on the outside, and with Collins primarily on the left side, Johnson would see most of his routes on the right, drawing the Kristian Fulton matchup. Fulton has been targeted often over the past four weeks, allowing 17 receptions on his 19 targets. It's a little risky with a small sample size as a member of the Texans, but if we're predicting Collins to draw the double team and Johnson's their next best weapon, facing off against a CB prone to allowing receptions, he might be primed for a good game.

Suggested Pick:
Diontae Johnson o11.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Dalton Schultz
There was no bigger opportunity for Schultz to step up for this offence once Dell went down two weeks ago. However, he hasn't done that at all. In the two games without Dell, he has logged just 50 yards on five receptions. But this could be a game for Schultz to get involved, as they allow the 13th most receptions (5.4) but the 11th fewest receiving yards (45.6) per game to opposing TEs. Given they are heavily targeted and allowed a lot of receptions but not a lot of yards, Schultz should have another opportunity to get involved for the Texans this week.

Suggested Pick:
Dalton Schultz o3.5 Receptions (-130)

Just looking at these two teams and how they're entering the playoffs, it's easy to want to side with the Chargers. They've got the better record, and just by the eye test, they look like the more threatening team. The Chargers also come into this game as the more healthy team on both sides of the ball. I do believe the hate on the Texans have gone a little too far, but I have to side with the better team at this point.

Bets Bet - Chargers -2.5
Lean - Under 41.5
Chargers 24 - Texans 17

Anytime TD Picks

Ladd McConkey TD (+130)
Ladd has just one receiving TD shy of the team lead behind Quentin Johnston. He has the recent production, scoring three TDs in the previous four games, to Johnston's one. The Texans allow the second most receiving TDs to opposing WRs all season, averaging 1.24 per game. At least one of these guys will find the end zone, so give me the hyper-targeted slot WR.

CJ Stroud (+600)
Now, hear me out here. It's ballsy taking a player who has not scored a TD on the season. But there's no better time than now for CJ to find the end zone, especially when the team is so depleted of offensive weapons. However, the Chargers have the best red zone defence in the league, and have limited opposing RBs to just FOUR TDs this season. However, they've allowed three rushing TDs to QBs on the year. The safe pick is Mixon, of course, but the price is too good on the QB to overlook. Can't you just imagine Mixon rushing twice up the gut on the two yard line, not scoring, then on third and goal, Stroud dropping back to pass, not finding anything since, again, the Chargers have the best red zone defence, and Stroud scrambles and bulls over a defender to score? Or is that just me?

1st Touchdown: 
Quentin Johnston First TD (+1000)
If we're taking Ladd anytime, and how the Texans are allowing the second most receiving TDs to WRs per game, we'll cover our butts and take Johnston here.

Parlay 1: +130 odds on bet365

Los Angeles Chargers ML

Justin Herbert 1+ Passing TD

Ladd McConkey 5+ Receptions

Parlay 2: +125 odds on bet365

CJ Stroud 30+ Pass Attempts

Joe Mixon 3+ Receptions

Dalton Schultz 3+ Receptions

Parlay 3: +1400 odds on bet365

Justin Herbert 2+ Passing TD

Ladd McConkey 80+ Receiving Yards

Joe Mixon 4+ Receptions

QB Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson's struggles continued against the Bengals, where he managed just 148 passing yards and a single touchdown on 31 attempts, while adding 16 rushing yards on four carries. Although he’s logged 128 rushing yards and a score over his last five games, Wilson has accounted for just one total touchdown in three of his last four outings. The Ravens’ pass defense has tightened considerably, holding quarterbacks to 223 or fewer passing yards in seven of their last eight games, including two matchups against Wilson. Across those contests, he accumulated 422 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a lost fumble. However, his efficiency was underwhelming, averaging 5.7 and 6.6 yards per attempt in those games. Wilson’s recent form has been marked by inefficiency, completing just 61.1% of his throws for 5.7 yards per attempt over the past five games—better only than Dorian Thompson-Robinson. His deep passing has also fallen off significantly, hitting just 42.2% of throws beyond 10 yards in that span, compared to nearly 50% earlier in the season. Even with George Pickens back in the lineup, Wilson’s production remained stagnant, posting 5.5 yards per attempt in Week 17 and a season-low 4.8 yards in Week 18. Meanwhile, Baltimore has emerged as a formidable pass defense. Over the last seven games, they’ve allowed a league-low 5.8 yards per attempt and just a 2.2% touchdown rate. At home, they’ve maintained their dominance, limiting opponents to a 62.9% completion rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, and an 8.2% sack rate. With Wilson’s recent struggles and Baltimore’s surging defensive performance, this matchup heavily favors the Ravens’ ability to neutralize Wilson’s production, but the fact that the Ravens are such a pass funnel points to a lot of action through the air.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 30.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

RB Najee Harris
Harris has struggled to find consistency down the stretch, averaging 64.6 total yards per game over the last nine weeks of the season. He eclipsed the 100-yard mark just once during that span, hindered by inefficiency in the run game—posting only 3.6 yards per carry (37th among qualifying backs) and a 31.5% success rate (40th). Facing a tough slate of run defenses, including two matchups against the Ravens, didn’t help matters. Baltimore has been dominant against the run, allowing a league-best 3.5 yards per carry to running backs and ranking third in success rate against the run (66.6%). Against the Ravens this season, Harris rushed 27 times for 109 yards (3.9 YPC) with a 29.6% success rate. In Week 11, Pittsburgh's favorable game script allowed Harris to rack up 22 touches and pad his numbers. However, in the Week 16 rematch, with Pittsburgh trailing, his workload dropped to just nine touches. As the Steelers enter this game as 10-point underdogs, Harris will likely need a short-yardage touchdown opportunity to make an impact. 

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+220)

RB Jaylen Warren
Warren’s usage has been unpredictable all season, with his workload fluctuating from week to week. After commanding 62.9% and 50% of the backfield touches in Weeks 16 and 17, he closed the season with just 26.1% in Week 18. Though he entered that game with a rib injury, he wasn’t listed on the final injury report, making the drastic drop-off in touches hard to explain. Despite the inconsistency, Warren’s skill set might make him better suited to challenge Baltimore’s defense. While the Ravens excel against the run, they rank 26th in receiving yards allowed to running backs. Warren capitalized on this weakness during the regular season, catching nine passes for 71 yards in the two games against Baltimore. His most productive game came in the Week 16 matchup, where he accounted for a season-high 62.9% of Pittsburgh’s backfield touches, gaining 92 total yards. In a matchup where Pittsburgh is likely to play from behind, Warren’s pass-catching ability could play a crucial role in the Steelers’ offensive game plan, especially if the run game continues to struggle.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR George Pickens
After three games with a hamstring injury, George Pickens returned with a mixed performance. He caught 3-of-7 targets for 50 yards against the Chiefs on Christmas Day but followed it up with a disappointing season finale, catching just 1-of-6 targets for zero yards against the Bengals. This included two drops and a missed connection with Russell Wilson on a deep ball during a critical drive. While his early connection with Wilson was promising—highlighted by a 111-yard outing in Week 7—Pickens never surpassed 100 receiving yards in a game for the remainder of the season. Despite the inconsistency, he remains a key component of Pittsburgh's passing game. When healthy, Pickens commanded a hefty 29.5% of the team’s targets and 48.3% of their air yards. His Week 11 performance against Baltimore showcased his potential, as he hauled in 8-of-12 targets for 89 yards, accounting for 37.5% of team targets and 72.9% of air yards. The Ravens’ defense has since improved against primary receivers, limiting WR1s like A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, and Ladd McConkey to under 100 yards in recent matchups. However, they still allow the ninth-most receiving yards per game (112.7) and rank 10th in receptions surrendered (143) to receivers aligned out wide. Pickens will need to step up as he did in his first meeting against Baltimore if Pittsburgh hopes to exploit those vulnerabilities.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 24.5 Longest Reception (-110)

TE Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth has emerged as the most reliable pass catcher for the Steelers during the final stretch of the season. In Week 17, he caught 7-of-8 targets for 60 yards, and in Week 18, he followed up with an impressive 8-of-11 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. These performances marked his first games of the season with more than five receptions. Freiermuth has been a red-zone asset, scoring four touchdowns in the past six games and leading the team with five touchdown receptions when Russell Wilson is under center. However, his impact against the Ravens this season has been limited. In their two matchups, he combined for just five targets, catching 2 passes for 14 yards in Week 11 and 3 passes for 16 yards in Week 16. While Freiermuth's late-season surge shows his potential to be a game-changer, replicating that success against a Ravens defense that has limited his opportunities will be critical in their upcoming meeting.

Suggested Play
Pass

QB Lamar Jackson
Defenses have tested Jackson aggressively this year, frequently employing Cover 1 and man blitzes. He faced man coverage on 31% of his dropbacks (3rd highest in the league) and was blitzed 32.6% of the time (2nd highest). Against these looks, Jackson posted mixed results. He completed 59.7% of his throws against Cover 1 for 8.4 yards per attempt and a 6.7% touchdown rate. In his first meeting with Pittsburgh, Jackson struggled, completing just 46.2% of his passes for 72 yards against Cover 1. However, he adjusted in the rematch, torching the Steelers by completing 78.6% of his passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns against the same coverage. Pittsburgh’s strategy relied heavily on man coverage and blitzing, doing so on nearly half of Jackson’s dropbacks in their matchups. Yet, when the Steelers dropped into zone and avoided blitzing, Jackson completed just 45.5% of his passes for 6.0 yards per attempt with one touchdown across two games. The Steelers may need to adjust, especially considering their secondary has faltered down the stretch, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt and a 5.7% touchdown rate over their last seven games. Jackson’s rushing ability remains a critical factor, especially in the postseason, where he has averaged 86.8 rushing yards per game. Despite this, Pittsburgh has done well limiting rushing production from quarterbacks, holding Jackson to 46 and 22 rushing yards in their meetings this season and not allowing him to run for a touchdown in six career starts against them. The availability of Zay Flowers could also influence Jackson’s effectiveness. While Jackson managed two touchdowns without Flowers in Week 18, his efficiency dipped to 50% completion and 6.8 yards per attempt. Flowers accounted for 139 receiving yards across the two games against Pittsburgh, and his absence would leave Baltimore’s receiving corps with few options to threaten opposing defenses. Postseason success has been a point of scrutiny on Jackson at times, and I think he will be hungry to put narratives to rest here.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 1.5 Pass TDs (-140)

RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry showcased one of the most efficient seasons of his career, adapting his running style to thrive in different offensive setups. This year, a career-high 57.4% of his carries came from the shotgun formation, allowing him to capitalize on a lighter box on 20.6% of his runs—another career best. These adjustments resulted in Henry averaging 2.41 yards before contact per rush, the highest mark of his career. He also recorded explosive plays at an impressive rate, with 13.8% of his carries going for 10 or more yards, his best since 2019. Additionally, his 46.2% success rate as a runner marked his most efficient season since his rookie year. The two matchups against Pittsburgh this season demonstrated how game flow influences Henry’s involvement. In Week 11, Pittsburgh successfully dictated the script, limiting Henry to just 13 touches. Despite his efficiency—averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown—he had only five second-half touches and none in the fourth quarter. However, the story shifted in Week 16 when Baltimore controlled the game and kept Henry heavily involved. He carried the ball 24 times for 162 yards, including 11 second-half carries for 87 yards, with 73 of those yards coming in the fourth quarter alone. Henry’s late-game dominance was a recurring theme this season; he amassed 1,119 rushing yards and averaged 6.4 yards per carry in the second half of games, compared to 740 yards and 5.1 yards per carry in the first half.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 20.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

WR Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman is poised to see a significant uptick in opportunities if Zay Flowers is unavailable or limited. Last week, with Flowers sidelined, Bateman commanded 29.2% of the team’s targets, catching 5 of 7 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. This performance highlighted his ability to step up when needed, particularly after briefly exiting the game to be checked for a concussion. With Flowers on the field this season, Bateman has been targeted on just 15.8% of his routes. However, his recent performance underscores his potential to be a focal point of the passing game in Flowers' absence. Bateman’s 2023 season was the best of his career, finishing with 45 receptions for 756 yards and 9 touchdowns. The Steelers' defense, which employs the league’s highest rate of single-high coverage (65.9%), presents a favorable matchup for Bateman. Against single-high coverage, he has averaged 1.43 yards per route run and a target per route rate of 0.15 on 246 routes. Additionally, Pittsburgh has allowed the most receiving yards per game (124.1) and the seventh-most touchdowns (13) to wideouts aligned out wide. In two games against the Steelers this season, Bateman posted 3 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets. Regardless of whether Flowers plays or not, we could see limited snaps out of him and I could see Lamar giving extra looks at Bateman.

Suggested Play

‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+130)

TE Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews saw a reduction in his playing time in 2024, but he still made a significant impact when on the field. His route participation rate of 65.8% was his lowest since 2019. Despite a slow start to the season, Andrews found his rhythm in the offense, finishing among the top tight ends in several key categories from Week 5 onward. Over that span, he ranked 10th in receptions (49), 6th in receiving yards (608), and 1st in touchdowns (11), while also placing 15th in targets (60). He recorded just 57 fewer yards than Travis Kelce, despite Kelce receiving 52 more targets. During this stretch, Andrews was 3rd in yards per route run (2.21), behind only George Kittle (2.84) and Trey McBride (2.28). He has proven to be incredibly efficient when given opportunities and remains one of the top touchdown producers at his position. Andrews has scored in six consecutive games and in 10 of his last 12. If Zay Flowers is absent or limited, Andrews could see an increase in opportunities. In Week 18, with Flowers off the field, Andrews matched Rashod Bateman with a team-high 7 targets (29.2%). He also played a larger role, running a route on 82.8% of the dropbacks without Flowers on the field. In the two games against Pittsburgh, Andrews was on the field for 57.1% (2-22-0) and 68% (4-37-1) of the dropbacks, indicating that his usage could vary depending on the game script and personnel available. Regardless, we can expect Andrews to get his usual looks in the red zone.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+158)

The Ravens are experienced in the playoffs under Lamar Jackson, who got his best taste of postseason success last year. The Steelers and Mike Tomlin have done a good job against Lamar in recent meetings in his ability to scheme away Lamar’s ability to make plays on the ground. I think this will lead to some struggles in that area. But he has been so elite as a passer as well, but had a massive game in their first meeting in Baltimore this year. I think the Ravens will do enough to win this game but giving Russell Wilson and Mike Tomlin 9.5 points is disrespectful in my opinion, as this team will certainly hang around.

Best Bet: Steelers +9.5 -106
Lean: ‘U’ 43.5 -105
Ravens 23 Steelers 17

Anytime TDs

(Ravens) Mark Andrews +158
Mark Andrews has proven to be incredibly efficient when given opportunities and remains one of the top touchdown producers at his position. Andrews has scored in six consecutive games and in 10 of his last 12. If Zay Flowers is absent or limited, Andrews could see an increase in opportunities. 

(Steelers) Najee Harris +220
In Week 11, Pittsburgh's favorable game script allowed Harris to rack up 22 touches and pad his numbers. However, in the Week 16 rematch, with Pittsburgh trailing, his workload dropped to just nine touches. As the Steelers enter this game as 10-point underdogs, Harris will likely need a short-yardage touchdown opportunity to make an impact. Luckily with the amount of chances I expect from him, I think there is a good chance for that.

First TD

(Ravens) Derrick Henry +350
Henry has scored the game’s first TD in 7/17 games this year, meaning if the Ravens score first, there is a pretty solid chance it will be Henry based on his season. He will get the majority of the carries in the red zone, and I also think there will be an extra emphasis on trying to establish the run downhill early in this game.

Parlay 1 +360

Russell Wilson ‘O’ 30.5 Pass Attempts

Derrick Henry ‘O’ 20.5 Rush Attempts

Najee Harris ‘U’ 11.5 Rush Attempts

Parlay 2 +845

Najee Harris ATD
Mark Andrews ATD

Rashod Bateman ‘O’ 43.5 Receiving Yards